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NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 24 (Reuters) - Crop Watch condition scores have somewhat steadied after rising for three straight weeks as the latest week’s dry weather was offset by cooler temperatures. CONDITIONS AND YIELDIn the latest week, corn condition and yield contracted slightly while soybean condition edged upward, and soy yield stayed unchanged. Crop Watch producers have been rating crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. WEATHEROhio was the wettest Crop Watch location last week with around 2.75 inches of rain in two events, one with some damaging hail. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop Watch, Producers, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, The Ohio, North Dakota, government’s, Eastern Iowa, Illinois, South Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Although those factors caused Chicago corn and wheat futures to surge, speculators have held on to their bearish views thus far. In the week ended July 18, money managers reduced their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 46,926 contracts from 63,052 a week earlier. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCBOT December corn futures rallied 6.6% through Tuesday, July 18, though the week included a drop to new yearly lows after the Department of Agriculture expanded the U.S. corn crop outlook. Money managers’ net short in CBOT wheat futures and options has barely changed in the latest three weeks despite a 4% decline in most-active futures during the stretch. Money managers increased their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to a three-week high of 95,814 contracts through July 18 from 82,748 a week earlier.

Persons: Soymeal, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Department of Agriculture, Wednesday, Traders, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ukraine, Chicago, U.S, soyoil

The pace of new-crop U.S. corn and soybean export sales usually starts to increase in July and especially into August. That covers only 8% of USDA’s 2023-24 U.S. corn export forecast of 53.3 million tonnes (2.1 billion bushels), below the five-year average of 13%. New U.S. corn export sales, July 13New-crop soybean sales account for 10% of USDA’s 2023-24 export target of 50.35 million tonnes (1.85 billion bushels). New U.S. soybean export sales, July 13Both of those export outlooks, especially the one for corn, are considered too optimistic by some analysts since cheaper Brazilian supplies are seen increasingly eating in to U.S. export shares. China has purchased 1.87 million tonnes of new-crop U.S. soybeans, the lowest mid-July, non-trade-war-year volume in at least 16 years.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Japan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, United States, U.S, China, New U.S, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, Canada

The weather story lingered again on Wednesday, but harsher threats from Russia thrust the grain deal into the spotlight. Most-active CBOT wheat futures surged 8.5% on Wednesday, wheat’s largest single-day percentage rise since Feb. 28, 2022, just days after Russia invaded Ukraine. Money managers held a modest net short of 63,052 corn futures and options contracts by that date. Prior to that, grain deal uncertainty failed to spark bullish interest as Ukrainian export volumes far exceeded original expectations. Had the Jan. 3 high stood, it would have been November beans’ first annual high set in January since 1999.

Persons: reconnection, Karen Braun, Matthw Lewis Organizations: Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ukraine, Chicago, Russia, India, U.S, Moscow, Western

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. Corn Belt has experienced much more forgiving weather this month after an unusually dry June crashed both corn crop conditions and yield ideas. Three weeks ago, corn was just 50% GE, the week’s worst since 1988. Although long ago, most years with similar gains around this time frame featured corn yields within a couple percent of trend, if not better. Keep in mind that the concept of “trend yield” is subjective and often varies by analyst. USDA’s 2023 corn trend of 181.5 bushels per acre, which some considered too high, was reduced to 177.5 last week after the dry June.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of, GE, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S

Those factors caused a historic 21% plunge in CBOT December corn in the final seven trading days of June, though price steadied immediately after. But money managers in that week expanded their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 63,052 contracts from 18,209 in the prior week, against expectations for mild net buying. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsUSDA lowered U.S. corn yield on July 12 due to dry June weather, but it would still be a new record. U.S. soybean plantings came in far below market predictions on June 30, but money managers have been net sellers of CBOT soybean futures and options in the last two weeks. That was on a 0.5% rise in November soybean futures for the week, and beans rose another 0.8% in the last three sessions.

Persons: steadied, Wheat, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, soyoil, U.S ., Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S

Over the last decade, U.S. corn yield in August was lower than in July four times, including the past two years. The recent years with higher August corn yields versus July have featured some sizable moves. The government's corn and soybean yields will rely heavily on survey data next month and field observations will be added in September. Last month was the Midwest’s driest June since 1988, though USDA left U.S. soybean yield untouched from the 52-bpa trendline. August soybean yield has come in lower than in July only twice in the past 10 years (2013, 2021).

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, USDA

It is always risky when all analysts are leaning the same way, though recent weather and the already-lofty nature of the corn yield seem to validate this thinking. However, lower yields may not be printed in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report on Wednesday. All 25 analysts polled between Reuters and Bloomberg believe this month’s corn yield will come in below USDA’s trend-line of 181.5 bushels per acre. Eight of 25 analysts expect the 52 bpa to stand on Wednesday, though soy yield may be more likely than corn to come in lower this month. That leaves room for corn yield losses on the balance sheet but keeps bean supplies tight either way.

Persons: U.S . Midwest Karen Braun, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of, Reuters, Bloomberg, U.S . Midwest, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Illinois, Indiana

Corn conditions have recently been comparable to the drought-stricken 2012 season, though they U-turned at the start of July. Corn conditions tend to stay largely unchanged or decline slightly throughout the season even in high-yielding years, so this week’s increase stands out. The last time corn conditions improved 4 or more percentage points in a late-June or early-July week was in 2001, and there were four more instances between 1992 and 1997. Using corn conditions for week 27 to predict final yield deviation from trend results in an R-square of 0.56, meaning about 56% of the yield variation can be explained by week 27 conditions. This suggests corn conditions have max correlation with actual yield deviations in late July, though including other variables such as July or August weather would likely enhance the model's reliability.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: of Agriculture, GE, Sunday’s, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S

Crop Watch corn and soybean fields rose again last week as seasonably cool temperatures dominated, outweighing some of the underwhelming rainfall totals in western areas. Cool weather should dominate this week, favorable for corn pollination, which is currently under way in at least seven of the 11 corn fields. Average corn yield starts at 3.95 versus 4.07 in the same week last year and 3.86 in the same week in 2021. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: ’, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Crop, U.S . Department of, Crop, Indiana, The North, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota, South Dakota , Kansas, Nebraska , Kansas, The, The North Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, Griggs County, Stutsman County

As of July 3, CBOT December corn futures had plunged nearly 22% off their June 21 high as much-needed rain for U.S. crops started falling and also appeared in forecasts. December corn fell 12% in the four-day week ended July 3, and money managers flipped to a net short in CBOT corn futures and options of 18,209 contracts. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsU.S. soybean plantings on June 30 came in well below all trade guesses, causing a surge in November soybeans . CBOT wheat rose more than 1% over the last three sessions on a slower U.S. winter harvest and possible drought concerns for U.S. and Canadian spring wheat. However, open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options is at the lowest mid-year levels since 2005.

Persons: soyoil, Karen Braun, Leslie Adler Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Minnesota, Iowa , Wisconsin, North Dakota, U.S

Nine of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields should be tasseling within the next 10 days or so. Although cool July weather generally supports big crop yields, a couple of the Crop Watch producers mentioned that their fields could benefit from some heat and sun. The weekly increase was Crop Watch corn’s largest since late June 2021, when much-needed rain finally fell in the central Corn Belt. Soybean conditions jumped to 4.05 from 3.73 in the prior week, Crop Watch beans’ biggest-ever weekly improvement but similar to that same week in June 2021. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop, Crop Watch, U.S . Department of, Watch, Southeastern Illinois, Nebraska, South, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ohio, North Dakota, Nebraska , Kansas, Indiana, Illinois . North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota , Kansas, Illinois, North Dakota , Kansas , Indiana, Dakota, Minnesota, South Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

Chicago corn, wheat, soybean and soybean meal futures began rallying sharply in mid-June as expanding U.S. drought and disappointing rain events hammered crop conditions. Trade sources had pegged the week’s net corn selling to be about four times heavier. Trade sources peg funds’ net selling in CBOT corn futures at 55,500 contracts over the last three sessions, and CBOT wheat selling is seen at 20,500 futures contracts. Funds were seen as net buyers of 8,000 soybean futures, 9,500 soyoil futures and 3,500 soymeal futures between Wednesday and Friday. Money managers’ weekly net selling in CBOT corn futures and options has twice exceeded 100,000 contracts this calendar year.

Persons: Gross, Wheat, Karen Braun, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, corn’s, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago

This set of reports is associated with the largest average CBOT corn and soy moves of the 15 major USDA report days per year. Directionally, corn and soy futures on June 30 tend to react to acres far more often than stocks, though U.S. weather forecasts often add to the chaos. In the six sessions ended Thursday, CBOT December corn futures plunged 15.9%, June’s biggest six-session loss in at least three decades. Analysts basically nailed both corn acres and June 1 corn stocks last year, which was unprecedented, but December futures fell more than 5% on report day. Trade biases for June 30 U.S. stocks, acres versus pricesTrade biases on June 30 U.S. soy stocks, acres versus pricesKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Corn, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S

Soybeans were pegged at 87.67 million acres, up from 87.5 million in March. The soybean range of 1.5 million acres is the smallest since 2005 and below the 2.75-million average. In the last four years, corn acres also ended up out-of-range in the two years where trade guesses varied the most (2020, 2019). This year’s corn planting pace was near the longer-term average, but heavy rains were problematic in North Dakota for a second consecutive year. Analysts’ corn numbers were too high in 2021 and 2020, but they were too low in the four prior years.

Persons: Rains, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, Analysts, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, USDA’s, North Dakota

That caused some offsetting of Crop Watch conditions in the latest week, though a small decline was observed overall. Crop Watch conditions are intended as more of a visual assessment than a yield indicator. Crop Watch condition averages are not weighted due to the sample size, though USDA’s conditions are weighted by acreage estimates. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Crop Watch Conditions: June 25, 2023Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop Watch, U.S . Department of, South Dakota, Nebraska, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Nebraska, Illinois, South Dakota, Iowa, North Dakota, South, Kansas, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County

In the four-day week ended June 20, money managers erased a combined 100,000 gross short positions across CBOT corn, wheat, soybeans, soy products, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat, the most for any week since August 2020. Money managers also added 45,000 gross longs last week, the most in four months and driven primarily by corn, where new longs outnumbered short covering. Net buying in soybeans last week was split between new longs and short covering, though funds’ latest moves in CBOT wheat and soybean oil were exclusively the result of short covering. They also increased their net long in CBOT soybeans to a two-month high of 76,950 futures and options contracts versus 47,882 a week earlier. Both new-crop corn and soybean futures rose more than 8% in the week ended June 20 amid near-record dryness in top-producing U.S. states.

Persons: Karen Braun, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Environmental Protection Agency, parched, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, CBOT, U.S, parched U.S, United States

Up to five of the 11 Crop Watch locations received no rain over the last week, and only one tallied 1 inch or more. Each week the Crop Watch producers assign condition scores to their fields on a 1-to-5 scale. Crop Watch conditions do not incorporate yield assumptions, which will come later in the season. Eight of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields carry a condition score of 4 or better as do seven of the soybean fields, though there are no perfect 5s. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.

Persons: Karen Braun, Robert Birsel Organizations: Crop, U.S . Department of Agriculture’s, North Dakota, Nebraska and, Reuters, Thomson Locations: FONTERUTOLI, Italy, United States, South Dakota , Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa, North Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana, Nebraska and South Dakota, Ohio, Minnesota, Kansas, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County

SUPPLY AND DEMANDLast month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s initial stab at 2023-24 U.S. corn supply and demand got people talking. U.S. corn demand has been lousy lately and has struggled to compete with plentiful Brazilian supplies. But USDA’s 2023-24 corn demand assumptions are actually conservative by comparison. Year-on-year changes in U.S. corn supply and useCROP COMPARISONSThe corn harvest was record-large in 2013, and 2023 is expected to feature another high. U.S. corn conditions week 23 versus yieldKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, Iowa, Illinois

Each week the Crop Watch producers assign condition scores to their fields on a 1-to-5 scale. Crop Watch conditions do not incorporate yield assumptions, which will come later in the season. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Crop Watch 2023 ProducersKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop, U.S . Department of Agriculture’s, South, Kansas, Indiana, Producers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, North Dakota, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, Indiana , Illinois , Iowa, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County

Gains across most-active CBOT futures in the week ended June 6 were as follows: corn 2.4%, soybeans 4.4%, wheat 6.2%, soymeal 1% and soyoil 10.2%. They also trimmed their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 44,492 contracts from 51,065 in the prior week. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCommodity funds in mid-March established a net short in CBOT corn for the first time since August 2020, but they have not held a net short in soybeans since April 2020. Funds slashed their net short to 16,173 futures and options contracts from a record 31,110 a week earlier. Most-active soybean oil featured the biggest gains at 7.2%, and corn was the biggest loser with December down 1.9% and most-active corn down 0.6%, mostly on weekend rain expectations for the U.S. Corn Belt.

Persons: soymeal, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: Funds, Wednesday, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, CBOT soyoil, Midwest

Production had never exceeded 100 million prior to 2017, though USDA sees the 2024 crop jumping to another new high of 163 million tonnes. Current economics suggest 2024 soybean profitability in Brazil could return to the lower levels of the late 2010s, when the average yearly area expansion was below 3%. Brazilian farmers have been slow to sell the 2023 soy crop amid easing prices, and 2024 may be less exciting. China’s soybean consumption had been rising more than 8% per year in the mid-2010s. Chinese soybean demand: consumption and importsKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Mato, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, China, Americas, Brazil, BRAZIL, United States, Argentina, CHINA

That is the lowest initial corn rating since 59% GE in 2019 and below the five-year average of 71%. The timing of initial corn conditions depends on emergence and has spanned May 24 to June 9 in the latest five years. Since crop conditions began in 1986, all but one of the strong U.S. corn yields coincided with initial ratings above 70% GE. Initial U.S. corn conditions and yieldHigher crop ratings have not always led to success. The highest-ever initial corn rating of 81% in 1991 preceded a very poor crop as the critical months of July and August were much too dry.

Persons: Corn, Beans, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of, GE, Nebraska, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, , Minnesota, North Dakota

Soybeans are the only U.S.-traded grain or oilseed in which funds’ net long has persevered since 2020, though money managers have been bullish soybean meal since late 2021. Most-active CBOT soybeans fell 3% in the week ended May 23, at one point trading at the lowest levels since last July. Money managers that week cut nearly 20,000 contracts from their CBOT soybean net long, which fell to 4,147 futures and options contracts. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsMost-active soybeans have shed more than 12% this year, more than in most years, though they bounced 1% over the last three sessions. Money managers extended their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to 118,788 contracts from 112,769 a week earlier.

Records date to 2012, when 15% of corn areas were in at least moderate drought by this same week. Percent of U.S. corn in drought, May versus JulyAround the same date in 2014, 2021 and 2022, moderate drought coverage spanned between 20% and 24% of U.S. corn areas. The central Corn Belt, including Iowa and Illinois, was very wet in May 2013 and mid-month corn planting in those states was very slow, though planting was quicker than normal this year. El Nino never formed in 2012, though it did in late 2014, sticking around throughout 2015 and leading into the 2015-16 super El Nino. Strong U.S. corn yields occur more frequently during El Nino versus La Nina, though El Nino does not guarantee that outcome.

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