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The month of October, celebrated as "Uptober" by long-time crypto investors, has historically churned out some big gains for bitcoin. In seven of the last 10 years, bitcoin has posted a positive month. For four of the last six years, ether has ended the October trading month higher, according to Kaiko. Bitcoin was lower for the month by 0.3% as of Tuesday, while ether was down 1.4%, according to Coin Metrics. "Crypto market volatility has dipped to multi-year lows over the past month, with bitcoin's 20-day volatility now equal to that of the Nasdaq equity index," Kaiko head of research Clara Medalie told CNBC.
"If the price recovers the $20,000 psychological level with a substantial trading volume in the next few days, bitcoin could test $23,000 next week." Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Japanese crypto exchange Bitbank, said the dip wasn't deep enough to induce panic, however. Cryptocurrencies were higher on Monday after recovering from a sharp drop in the previous week. Despite a recent divergence in volatility, activity in bitcoin and ether trading remain closely tied to that of risk assets more broadly. While October is typically a strong month for crypto trading, crypto has never been in such a strongly macro driven bear market and it remains to be seen how prices will fare by the end of the month.
Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in over a week on Monday as investors continued to digest strong jobs data from Friday that pushed risk assets including cryptocurrencies even deeper into the red. I also expect significant volatility on Thursday, with a move up or down depending on the inflation figure." Investors watch these updates closely for clues about the Federal Reserve's next move in its fight to bring down inflation. "Key data points to watch out for this week will be the CPI data beat/miss on Wednesday and the FOMC minutes, a whiff of dovishness is likely to be supportive for crypto assets." Despite the anxiety hanging over investors, cryptocurrencies' volatility has been uncharacteristically low in recent weeks, though its correlation with stocks remains positive.
The pound fell to a record low against the dollar on Monday, having plunged the previous Friday after the UK government announced unfunded tax cuts . "There is a high correlation to bitcoin volume growth and political/monetary instability," he said. read moreVersus the dollar, bitcoin is down around 58% so far this year, while the British pound is down 20%. Bitcoin was trading around $19,515 on Wednesday and at 17,940 versus the British pound . The cryptocurrency hit a two-week high against the British pound on Tuesday.
The Ethereum blockchain's mega-upgrade finally went live on Sept. 15, moving it to a less energy-intensive "proof of stake" (PoS) system with hardly a hiccup. Some crypto investors are now turning their attention to the next event that could shake up prices. It would allow validators, who have deposited ether tokens on the blockchain in exchange for a yield, to withdraw their staked coins, to hold or sell. Longer-term, though, the switch to PoS is expected to decrease the rate at which ether tokens are issued - potentially by up to 90% - which should drive up prices. Additionally, annual yields of 4.1% for staking ether tokens to validate transactions could prove tempting for investors.
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