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Europe’s banking stocks suffer biggest drop in a year
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which tracks 42 big EU and UK banks, fell 5.6% by mid-afternoon — notching its biggest fall since March last year. The broader Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 2.1%, while the bank-heavy FTSE 100 (UKX) was 2.2% down. A Brinks armored truck sits parked in front of the shuttered Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) headquarters on March 10, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. It is unclear how many unrealized losses EU and UK banks are carrying on their books. Beauchamp added that the sharper falls in European bank stocks so far seen on Monday might partly reflect their stronger performance relative to US banks this year.
Big investors including Kyle Bass and Bill Ackman argue the government must take quick action to avoid Silicon Valley Bank's collapse sparking more widespread withdrawals in the banking system. That could be determined by how hard the world's central banks continue to push interest rates higher. The market is signaling contagion could factor into the Fed's calculus, possibly prompting it to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Silicon Valley Financial Group was deeply woven into the fabric of the technology industry. Bass and Ackman separately warned that the government would have to move quickly in resolving Silicon Valley Bank to assure depositors.
SVB Financial's share plunge is dragging on major bank stocks like JPMorgan and Bank of America. Here's everything you need to know about Silicon Valley Bank and its parent company SVB Financial. SVB is a Santa Clara-based bank that lends money to and takes deposits from Silicon Valley tech startups. Why has SVB's stock price crashed? "The failure of SVB Financial could destroy an important long-term driver of the economy as VC-backed companies rely on SVB for loans and holding their operating cash," he said on Twitter Thursday evening.
Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.5% in early trading, while London’s bank-heavy FTSE 100 (UKX) index slid 1.8%. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei ended Friday down 1.7% as the country’s central bank decided to keep its ultra-low interest rates unchanged. Futures on the benchmark S&P 500 (DVS) index fell 0.43%, while futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) dropped 0.2%. Wall Street wipeoutThe losses come after US bank stocks logged the largest falls in nearly three years on Thursday. The KBW Bank Index, which tracks 24 leading US banks, fell 7.7%, its biggest drop in almost three years.
The capital issues at SVB Financial sparked a sell-off among bank stocks on Thursday, but the tech-focused bank's woes will likely not be a preview of wider issues in the banking system, according to Wall Street analysts. KBWB 5D mountain Bank stocks fell sharply on Thursday. Morgan Stanley analysts Manan Gosalia and Betsy Graseck echoed that sentiment, saying in a note that the issues at hand appeared to specific to SVB. "Current pressures facing SIVB are highly idiosyncratic and should not be viewed as a read-across to other banks we cover. RBC analyst Gerard Cassidy said that banks without large retail customer bases could be in for a rocky period.
But the real star — or perhaps supernova — of Thursday was SVB Financial, which saw shares drop as much as 62%. As you can imagine, the past year has not been kind to SVB. SVB had to sell a $21 billion bond portfolio for a $1.8 billion loss (thanks a lot, interest rates!). It wasn't long before reports started rolling in about VCs instructing their founders to get their money out. Here's more on the tech founders trying to calm everyone down amid the chaos.
Bank stocks plunged on Thursday as investors assessed the potential fallout from the implosions of Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Capital. SVB Financial surprised investors with lowered guidance, a $2.3 billion capital raise, and a massive $1.8 billion loss from its bond portfolio. "Part of the problem is Silicon Valley [Bank] had been telling investors up until a couple weeks ago that their guidance was intact. Piling onto the mess in the banking sector on Thursday is the development that crypto-oriented bank Silvergate Capital would wind down its operations. NYSE senior market strategist Michael Reinking shared similar sentiments, telling Insider that the sharp decline at Silicon Valley Bank was "sending shock waves through the financials."
London CNN —Investors are bucking tradition this year by piling into big bank stocks just as major economies are expected to either slow down or fall into recession. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that interest rates would rise more than people anticipated. European bank stocks have risen particularly sharply in the past six months. “As those worries have unwound, European banks have done particularly well.”No ‘hidden skeletons’But European economies are still fragile. When economic activity slows down, bank stocks are typically among those hit hardest.
The top picks of Morgan Stanley bank analyst Betsy Graseck are looking undervalued as the market rallies, she said Wednesday in a report. "Our most preferred stocks RF, WFC & JPM have largely been left out of the current market rally and look undervalued for their asset sensitivity and skew to quality," Graseck said. Graseck is among the analysts who have generally urged caution on banks because loan losses are expected to rise this year as the economy slows or even enters a recession. But bank stocks have caught a bid in early 2023, along with 2022's other beaten-down sectors, with the KBW Bank Index up 11.5% so far. Her three top picks could rise a median 24%, about 4% more than other large cap banks in her coverage in a base-case scenario, she said.
David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., during a Bloomberg Television at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference in New York, US, on Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022. Goldman Sachs is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell Tuesday. Here's what Wall Street expects:Earnings: $5.48 per share, 49% lower than a year earlier, according to RefinitivRevenue: $10.83 billion, 14% lower than a year earlier. Trading Revenue: Fixed Income $2.31 billion, Equities $2.14 billionInvesting Banking: $1.75 billionHow long will the investment banking drought last? Goldman shares have climbed 8.9% this year going into Tuesday's trading, compared with a 6.7% advance for the KBW Bank Index.
JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell Friday. Here's what Wall Street expects:Earnings: $3.07 per share, 7.9% lower than a year earlier, according to Refinitiv. Investment banking revenue is expected to plunge 50% in the wake of frozen IPO markets and subdued deals, Barclays analyst Jason Goldberg said in a Jan. 11 note. Of greater interest, perhaps, is what JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says about the economy. The other large retail banks, including Bank of America , Wells Fargo and Citigroup , are also scheduled to release results Friday, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley report Tuesday.
It's been a confusing time for investors in bank stocks. Analysts are expecting a mixed bag of conflicting trends when four of the largest U.S. banks report fourth-quarter results Friday. "Our continued cautious view ... reflects ongoing macro risks and likely weakening bank fundamentals —including peaking net interest margins," Deutsche Bank analyst Matt O'Connor said in Jan. 5 note. The outlook Investors tend to discount fourth-quarter results in favor of what managements say about their outlooks for the coming year. "We expect above-consensus expense guides will likely weigh on bank stocks during 4Q22 earnings as managements communicate their 2023 budget plans," Graseck said.
Wells Fargo says this top bank pick can jump 55% this year
  + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo named Bank of America his top pick for 2023 on expectations for "near best-in-class" growth in net interest income, profit margins and earnings. The stock should merit a higher multiple this year and can climb 55% from its price on Tuesday, Mayo wrote in a note published that day. To be fair, Bank of America was also Mayo's top pick at the start of 2022. based on the Fed stress test," Mayo wrote of last year's stock decline. Mayo's other top picks are U.S. Bancorp and PNC Financial , both of which should beat consensus earnings by at least 6% over the next two years, Mayo wrote.
Banks finally got a long-awaited boost to interest rates this year after a decade of toiling in a low-rate environment. A year ago, big lenders including Bank of America and Wells Fargo were the top picks of the analyst community because they were expected to benefit from higher rates . Loan growth coupled with vast deposit bases would drive gains in interest income as the Federal Reserve hiked rates, the thinking went. In a downturn, banks are exposed to surging loan defaults, reduced loan demand and write-downs on assets. Veteran analyst Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo said that bank stocks could pop 50% in 2023 by proving their resilience in a recession.
Goldman Sachs is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the opening bell Tuesday. Here's what Wall Street expects:Earnings: $7.69 per share, 49% lower than a year earlier, according to RefinitivRevenue: $11.41 billion, 16% lower than a year earlier. Trading Revenue: Fixed Income $3 billion, Equities $2.59 billionInvesting Banking: $1.84 billionWill Goldman's traders do well enough to offset weak investment banking results? While Wall Street rivals including JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley posted sharp declines in third-quarter investment banking revenue, better-than-expected fixed income results amid volatile markets helped buoy their institutional businesses. Last week, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo topped expectations for third-quarter profit and revenue by generating better-than-expected interest income.
Bank of America said Monday that profit and revenue topped expectations on better-than-expected fixed-income trading and gains in interest income, thanks to choppy markets and rising rates. Here are the numbers:Earnings: 81 cents vs. the 77 cents a share estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. Bank of America, led by CEO Brian Moynihan, was supposed to be one of the main beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve's rate-boosting campaign. Bank of America shares have fallen 29% this year through Friday, worse than the 26% decline of the KBW Bank Index. Last week, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo topped expectations for third-quarter profit and revenue by generating better-than-expected interest income.
JPMorgan Chase on Friday posted third-quarter results that topped analysts' estimates for profit and revenue as the firm reaped more than expected in interest income. Revenue: $33.49 billion, vs. $32.1 billion estimate. The bank said net interest income surged 34% in the quarter to $17.6 billion, thanks to higher interest rates and an expanding book of loans. JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, will be watched closely for clues on how banks are navigating a confusing environment. Rising interest rates mean that banks' core lending activity is becoming more profitable.
Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman participates in a conversation-style interview with Economic Club of Washington in Washington September 18, 2013. Morgan Stanley is set to report third-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Friday. That's the question for Morgan Stanley, whose investment banking, trading and wealth management operations are all impacted by the vagaries of the market. While analysts expect the bank's wealth management and investment management divisions – responsible for half of the firm's revenue – will hold up better than investment banking, lower asset values will reduce revenue there as well. Wells Fargo and Citigroup are also scheduled to report results Friday, followed by Bank of America on Monday and Goldman Sachs on Tuesday.
Big American banks have mostly resisted bulking up loan loss reserves this year as the financial health of consumers and corporations has held up despite mounting recession concerns. For much of the year, bank managers have told one story, while stocks have told another. Retail customers were spending briskly and still had ample cash in their accounts, executives including Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan have said . In April, JPMorgan was the first big bank to begin boosting reserves for credit losses, taking a $902 million charge. Analysts expect the New York-based bank to generate $2.90 per share in third-quarter earnings, 22% lower than a year earlier.
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