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Mortgage rates dropped last week in response to July's weaker-than-expected labor market data, though they're up slightly today. As mortgage rates go down, more homeowners will have an opportunity to refinance and save money on their monthly mortgage payments. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 5.99% this week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is an eight-basis-point decrease from the previous week. Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit.
Persons: it's, Freddie Mac Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Chevron
Yes, the S&P 500 is just off of all-time highs following a 36% percent rally from October to July. Major stock prices begin to perform poorly, which drags down the S&P 500 Index, which in turn causes the selling of the index. The index selling puts a drag on the largest-cap stocks, which adds more legs to the index selling." The S&P 500 is up 49% since late 2022 as bears have continued to warn of downside. AdvertisementSecond, lower interest rates would spark demand and could cause inflation to resurface, which would be good for oil stocks, Smead said.
Persons: , Smead doesn't, Smead, Warren, We're, Dow, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Stocks, LEN Organizations: Service, Business, Morningstar, Smead, Bank of America, Technology, Fund, Federal, Fed, DR, Occidental Petroleum, Apache
Mortgage rates fell dramatically this week, with 30-year mortgage rates even briefly dipping below 6% for the first time since early 2023, according to Zillow data. This should remove a lot of the upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to ease. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. As inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to drop.
Persons: they've, Fannie Mae Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
The wildest week of 2024 has investors bracing for more volatility in the week ahead, with key insight on the consumer and inflation coming at a time when recession fears are top of mind. Inflation, labor data Next week's inflation data could get less attention than it has over the past year when the Fed's fight against pricing pressures put inflation reports on center stage. Recently, it's been the labor market getting the most attention. "The market's caring much more about about labor markets and growth, than they do inflation right now," Ladner said. Week ahead calendar All times ET Monday, Aug. 12 2 p.m. Treasury Budget (July) Tuesday, Aug. 13 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (July) Earnings: Home Depot Wednesday, Aug. 14 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (July) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Scott Ladner, it's, Ladner, , Strategas, Ryan Grabinski, RJ Assaly, Jeremy Siegel, Chen Zhao, Zhao, Price Organizations: Federal, Walmart, Home, Horizon Investments, Bank of Japan, Wharton, Fed, UBS, Investments, Treasury Budget, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Retail, Manufacturing, Materials, Tapestry, Deere, Co, Housing Locations: U.S, NAHB, Michigan
In an August 1 note to clients, the bank's top global strategist urged investors to sell stocks when the Federal Reserve issues its first rate cut. Hartnett and his team studied the last 12 rate-cutting cycles going back to 1970 and identified three varieties of rate cuts. Hartnett said surging global central bank rate cuts are signs that the economy is in for a rough stretch. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates for the first time this cycle at its September meeting. "Emergency Fed rate cuts being priced in makes little sense given the economic backdrop in the U.S. and would only serve to destroy policy maker credibility."
Persons: , America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Louis, Jean, Louis Nakamura, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Hartnett's, Jim Smigiel Organizations: Service, America's, Federal Reserve, Business, Bank of America Bank of America, Bank of America, Louis Fed, Bank of America's, Global, SEI Locations: U.S
Thursday brought more negative news from the jobs market: unemployment insurance claims for the week ending July 27 were up by 14,000 from the previous week to 249,000. Stepping back from last week's weak data, chief investment officers and top strategists say the market is overreacting, and they're using this as a buying opportunity. Related storiesSimilarly, the manufacturing data is not as foreshadowing as it seems on the surface. "But the ISM manufacturing data can be a leading indicator of S&P earnings, particularly the new order number." "If you look at non-US stocks and you look at their valuations, they're trading at about 13 times earnings," Calcagni said.
Persons: Dow, we've, Philip Straehl, Morningstar, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Alicia Levine, Levine, it's, what's, Morningstar's Straehl, Simeon Hyman, Hyman, Donald Calcagni's, Calcagni Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Institute for Supply, Business, BNY, Big Tech, Mercer Advisors Locations: Americas
Some have called for emergency interest rate cuts this week as a result. The Federal Reserve has only cut rates off-cycle in extreme emergencies, like 9/11 and COVID-19. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Investors are panicking, and they're calling for the nation's central bank to cut interest rates over a month before the Fed's next meeting.
Persons: Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Investors, of Labor Statistics, Business
Treasury yields tumble as recession concerns take hold
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over eight basis points to 3.7099%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.7315% after falling by around 14 basis points. U.S. Treasurys slid on Monday as fears about a recession grew after a series of key economic data was released last week. The data suggested an easing of the labor market, which prompted concerns about a recession. That came after the Fed earlier in the week left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a September rate cut.
Persons: Treasurys, July's nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Dow, Fed, PMI
The unwind of the global yen "carry trade" is a force battering stocks. AdvertisementStocks plunged on Monday, and market pros say a lot of it has to do with the global unwind of the yen "carry trade." The carry trade refers to investors borrowing money at near-zero interest rates in Japan, and then redeploying that cash into higher-yielding assets around the world, such as stocks and bonds. "The selloff here is to a large extent attributable to the unwind of the so-called carry trade," Ed Yardeni told Yahoo Finance on Monday. AdvertisementThe unwind in the yen carry trade will go down as the biggest ever, according to a Monday note from Societe Generale.
Persons: , Stocks, Ed Yardeni, that's, Yardeni, That's, Kit Juckes, Warren Buffett's, Juckes, It's Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Bank of Japan, Federal, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
AdvertisementSt. Louis FedDespite the Sahm Rule's impressive history, it is sometimes criticized because it fails to account for rising labor participation, which can raise the unemployment rate. In addition to downcast labor market data, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell further into contraction territory this week, signaling that US manufacturing continues to slow. The market's direction also depends on how investors interpret interest rate cuts alongside future data. Fed funds rate futures markets are now pricing in a 50-basis-point cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementHartnett and his team analyzed Fed rate-cutting cycles and identified three different types of rate cuts — cuts into a soft landing, cuts into a hard landing, and panic cuts, which are due to a credit event or some sort of Wall Street crisis.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm —, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler, Tom Essaye, Jack McIntyre, Lara Castleton, Janus Henderson, Michael Kantrowitz, we've, Kantrowitz, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Labor, Brandywine Global, ISM, Nasdaq, Fed, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Bank of America, Fund
Leading real-estate analyst Ivy Zelman recently told Business Insider that entry-level houses are still about 20% more expensive than normal. While the unemployment rate remains relatively low, it has now risen for four straight months and appears to be accelerating. A higher unemployment rate is a troubling sign for employees, including those who have jobs and aren't looking to leave. In a tight job market, workers can demand higher raises since there aren't as many viable replacements for them if they left. Note that data for the cities is from June — the most current data obtained by Business Insider — while the national data is from July.
Persons: , shouldn't, Ivy Zelman, Jobs, Realtor.com Organizations: Service, Business, Street Locations: Realtor.com
Mortgage rates are down in response to the labor market slowing. Average 30-year mortgage rates are now hovering in the low 6% range, according to Zillow data, the lowest they've been since January 2024. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's refinance ratesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. This is a significant slowdown compared when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022, which means mortgage rates should start trending down soon. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: U.S, Chevron
Here are JPMorgan's top stock picks for August
  + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Some stocks have been added and others on this month's list. EQT Corp. has been added, while Arista Networks and Coherent Corp. – two names on last month's list – have been removed. Here are some of JPMorgan's top picks for August: EQT was named as part of the bank's value strategy. Of consumer stocks, McDonald's is also viewed as a value play, with shares of the fast-food chain down 7% this year. For growth stocks, Amazon made the cut.
Persons: EQT, McDonald's, Joe Erlinger, Brian Olsavsky, Donald Trump, Olsavsky, Eli Lilly –, Organizations: JPMorgan, Dow Jones, EQT Corp, Arista Networks, Amazon, Paris, Microsoft Locations: EQT, McDonald's U.S
As the Fed lowers rates, mortgage rates are expected to go down. "Mortgage rates declined to their lowest level since early February," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in a press release. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Barely Tick Down (-0.05%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 5.55%, five basis points lower than last week. Mortgage rates also rose dramatically in 2023, though they started trending back down toward the end of the year.
Persons: Freddie Mac, Jerome Powell, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's, you'll, It's, refinance, they've Organizations: Reserve, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron
The unemployment rate fell for Asian Americans from June to July, bucking a broader trend, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate among Asian Americans dipped to 3.7% in July from 4.1% a month earlier. The result went against the overall unemployment rate, which rose to 4.3% last month from 4.1% in June. Meanwhile, the jobless rate for white Americans rose to 3.8% in July, up from 3.5% a month earlier. For Hispanic Americans, this number climbed to 5.3% last month, compared to the rate of 4.9% in June.
Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics
The presidential campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris said Friday that its political operation raised $310 million in July, dwarfing the tally raised for the Republican nominee Donald Trump in the same month. Harris' team raised the eye-popping sum between the campaign, the Democratic National Committee, and joint fundraising committees. Trump's team said its larger political organization, which includes the former president's campaign and joint fundraising committees, raised $138.7 million in July. Harris' massive fundraising haul underscores renewed enthusiasm from Democratic donors, some of whom were hesitant to open their checkbooks after Biden's disastrous debate performance against Trump in late June. "More than 3 million donors made over 4.2 million contributions – with more than 2 million donors making their first donation this cycle," the campaign said in a press release.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Joe Biden, Trump's, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, tabling, Chavez Rodriguez Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Democratic National Committee, Democratic nominee's, Trump Locations: Atlanta , Georgia, DeKalb County, Pennsylvania,
Tom Merton | Ojo Images | Getty ImagesJob seekers have been sour on the job market for a while now — and with good reason. "The soft landing in the U.S. labor market is in danger," Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America for Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in a statement on Friday. "Yellow flags had started to pop up in the labor market data over the past few months, but now the flags are turning red," Bunker said. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. To pivot, assess 'transferrable skills'Because the labor market is weakening, it might be hard for workers to find opportunities in their preferred industries, Bustamante noted.
Persons: Tom Merton, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Nonfarm payrolls, Alí Bustamante, Julia Pollak, Pollak, NEETS, Bustamante Organizations: Economic, North, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Worker Power, Economic Security, Roosevelt Institute, ZipRecruiter, Health, Finance Locations: U.S, North America, New York City
Technical signals suggest downside is limitedThere isn't much evidence that poor-performing areas of the market, like small-cap stocks, have peaked, Newton said. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have fallen in recent months as traders anticipate Fed rate cuts, which is typically bullish for stocks, he added. Advertisement"Thus, looking to buy dips makes sense technically," he said, adding that small-cap stocks looked "certainly appealing" after their recent slide. Fed rate cuts will mark a turning point in the marketThat's because rate cuts are expected to ease borrowing costs across several sectors. Small-cap stocks are flashing bullish signalsThe Russell 2000 hit a 30-month high in July, something that's only happened nine times over the past 45 years.
Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, , Tom Lee, who's, Mark Newton, Newton, I'm, Russell, That's Organizations: Tech, Service, Fed, Wall Street Locations: Wall
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on July 31, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures slid on Thursday night as traders considered fresh results from Amazon and Intel. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 143 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.8%. Even the small-cap Russell 2000 hasn't been spared from the recent tumult, down about 3.3% in the period and on pace for its worst weekly performance since January. On the earnings front, energy giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil will be announcing their quarterly results Friday before the market open.
Persons: July's, Dow, Quincy Krosby, Arnim Holzer, Russell, " Holzer, hasn't, payrolls, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Amazon, Intel, Investors, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, LPL, EAB Investment, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: New York City . U.S, Thursday's
In his Sunday column , Jim Cramer wrote that these earnings reports will test that rotation narrative. Another way to help "take the sting away" is management teams providing a rationale behind the spending, Jim also wrote Sunday. Alphabet's second-quarter capex of $13.2 billion was up 91% year over year and higher sequentially from $12 billion in the first quarter. Alphabet's full-year capex spending is expected to total nearly $50 billion, according to estimates compiled by FactSet. Investors fretting about AI spending is not entirely new.
Persons: , Jim Cramer, Jeff Marks, Jim, Alphabet's, Sundar Pichai, FactSet, Apple, Meta's, Goldman Sachs, Jim Covello, Covello, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Big Tech, Microsoft, Apple, KeyBanc, Markets, Google, Meta, stoke, Wall Street, Wedbush Securities, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: capex
Mega-cap tech stocks have a lot to prove with upcoming second-quarter earnings results. The long-term outperformance of mega-cap tech relative to small-cap stocks is being tested by slowing revenue growth. AdvertisementThe mega-cap tech rally hit a wall in recent weeks as investors turned their attention to small-cap stocks in a historic way. That's in stark contrast to the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks relative to small-cap stocks over the past one-, three-, five-, and ten-years. Investors will get their first taste of mega-cap tech earnings on Tuesday, with Tesla and Alphabet set to release their second-quarter results after the market close.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Russell, David Kostin, Kostin, That's Organizations: Service, Vanguard, Growth, Tech, Investors, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Big Tech, Trump
U.S. stock futures were little changed Thursday night after the S&P 500 had its worst session since April, dragged lower by investors' rotation out of mega-cap tech stocks. S&P 500 futures were marginally higher. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up by around 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures traded near the flatline. Investors sold their Big Tech winners, pushing Nvidia lower by 5.6% and leading to a 4.1% decline for Meta Platforms . The S&P 500 is up 0.3% through Thursday's close, while the Nasdaq is down nearly 0.4%.
Persons: Dow, Russell, Warren, We've, Wells Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Investors, Big Tech, Meta, Traders, Federal, 3Fourteen, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, University of Michigan Locations: Thursday's, Wells Fargo
AdvertisementThe best days and weeks of the year for the stock market are around the corner. If history is a guide, that suggests the S&P 500 could surge 4% next month to record highs, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman SachsWhat's more, recent market trends show that July as a whole has been incredibly bullish for the stock market. If similar seasonal trends play out this year, a near-4% gain would catapult the S&P 500 to a new record at 5,665 based on current levels. As to what could drive more bullish returns over the coming weeks, Rubner highlighted that a record cash pile of more than $7 trillion sitting in money market funds could soon flood the market.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Scott Rubner, Rubner, NDX Organizations: Nasdaq, Service
A record $7.3 trillion in money market funds could soon be reinvested elsewhere, according to Goldman Sachs. AdvertisementA "wall of money" is headed for the stock market this summer and will drive equities to record highs, according to a recent note from Goldman Sachs' trading desk. Goldman Sachs managing director Scott Rubner highlighted in the note that a record $7.3 trillion is sitting in money market funds, and a large chunk of that is poised to flow into stocks. AdvertisementIf the Fed cuts rates, then the cash yield on money market funds should drop from its current level of about 5%. AdvertisementWith stocks already trading at records, the gains Rubner expects would send the stock market to fresh highs.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, seasonals, , Scott Rubner, Rubner, NDX Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq
Barron Trump gets into politics
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Barron Trump is set for to share in Donald Trump's big moment. Trump's youngest son will be a delegate to this July's Republican National Convention. Florida Republicans selected Barron Trump, 18, as an at-large delegate to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this July. Tiffany Boulos, Trump's youngest daughter, and her husband, Michael, are also at-large delegates. Trump, who also served in the Trump administration, said she would stay away from her father's bid to reclaim the White House.
Persons: Barron Trump, Donald Trump's, , Trump, Barron, Juan Merchan, Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump, Tiffany Boulos, Michael, Kimberly Guifoyle, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, Ron DeSantis, Joe Biden Organizations: Republican National Convention, Service, Florida Republicans, Politico, NBC, Republican, Former Fox News, Trump Jr, White, Sunshine, Florida Gov, Trump Locations: Milwaukee, Florida
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