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Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicHurricane Otis, which killed more than two dozen people in southern Mexico this week, exemplified a phenomenon that meteorologists fear will become more and more common: a severe hurricane that arrives with little warning or time to prepare. Judson Jones, who covers natural disasters for The Times, explains why Hurricane Otis packed such an unexpected punch.

Persons: Judson Jones, Hurricane Otis Organizations: Spotify, Music Hurricane Otis, The Times Locations: Mexico

On Tuesday morning, few meteorologists were talking about Tropical Storm Otis. At that time, forecast computer models didn’t show much to be concerned about. By Sunday evening, the computer forecast models were still not showing much. This is why meteorologists often preach that a computer model isn’t a forecast — forecasters create forecasts, they like to say. On Monday evening, with Otis still a tropical storm, satellite images revealed a little feature that could mean that the storm was about to intensify very quickly.

Persons: Tropical Storm Otis, Otis, Zach Levitt, Tomer, we’re, Eric Blake, Hurricane Otis Organizations: Tropical Storm, National, U.S, National Hurricane Center, Otis, Hurricane Locations: Mexico, Tomer Burg, Florida, @burgwx, Acapulco

Before the storm made landfall, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico had urged residents in Guerrero to brace for the storm. “Agree to move to shelters, stay in safe places: away from rivers, streams, ravines, and be alert,” he said on Tuesday. It also recommended that Acapulco residents take shelter, avoid crossing streams and flooded streets, and stay away from areas prone to landslides. The rainfall could cause flash and urban flooding, as well as mudslides in the mountainous areas, forecasters said. “There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico,” the hurricane center added.

Persons: Andrés Manuel López Obrador, ”, Otis, Hurricane Patricia Organizations: of, Protection Locations: Mexico, Guerrero, Acapulco, Tecpán, Oaxaca, Pacific Coast

Hurricane Otis exploded onto the southwest coast of Mexico early Wednesday, shocking forecasters as it emerged as one of the more powerful Category 5 storms to batter the region and create what one expert called a “nightmare scenario” for a popular tourist coastline. Few meteorologists initially thought the tropical storm would make landfall as a catastrophic hurricane. Most models failed to predict that the storm would intensify over the Pacific Ocean, leading forecasters to believe it would be at most a weak hurricane. But it strengthened with remarkable speed, and by Tuesday evening forecasters and Mexican officials were rushing to warn residents of its potential for destruction. The storm slammed ashore with sustained winds of 165 miles per hour; just a day earlier, Otis brought winds of 65 miles per hour.

Persons: Otis Organizations: Otis Locations: Mexico, Guerrero, Oaxaca

☆ Why Hurricane Otis Caught Many By Surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Judson Jones | More About Judson Jones | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On Tuesday morning, few meteorologists were talking about Tropical Storm Otis. At that time, forecast computer models didn’t show much to be concerned about. Forecasters with the U.S. National Hurricane Center said that morning that “some slight strengthening” was possible over the following days. By Sunday evening, the computer forecast models were still not showing much. A forecaster uses several tools to create a weather forecast, not just computer models.

Persons: Tropical Storm Otis, Otis, Tomer Organizations: Tropical Storm, U.S, National Hurricane Center Locations: Mexico, Tomer Burg

The group chat had been filled with balloon and champagne emojis for days. The clouds have essentially ruined many New Yorkers’ plans. Perhaps Ms. Neilsa, a model in Bushwick, captured the vibe perfectly: “I’m not going to lie, this sucks,” she said. A weekend in August lost to an annoying drizzle, but no problem. Then another weekend lost in September — then again, and again, and again, until finally, it was hard to be outside and soaked this last Saturday and not think that some mysterious force was bent on drenching the city as soon as each workweek ended.

Persons: Candace Neilsa, —, Neilsa, I’m, ” Organizations: New, Yorkers Locations: New York City, Bushwick

The storm system is helping usher in traditional autumn weather across Britain this week with cool, wind-swept rains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Grahame Madge, a spokesman for the Met Office, Britain’s national weather service, said on Tuesday that it was not unusual for former hurricanes to enter this part of the world. He said this particular system would bring a significant amount of rainfall to parts of Britain, but no hurricane conditions. The Met Office issued a yellow weather warning for heavy rain for much of Wales and northwest England. “Be aware of the possibility of flooding and travel disruption in these areas” on Tuesday and Wednesday, forecasters said.

Persons: Hurricane Lee, Grahame Madge, “ Organizations: Met Office, Met Locations: New England, Canada, Britain, Ireland, Wales, England

☆ Hurricane Lee Approaches New England and Canada
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( Judson Jones | More About Judson Jones | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Hurricane Lee was producing tropical storm conditions in coastal Massachusetts and Nova Scotia early Saturday, hours before its expected landfall in Canada. Tropical storm warnings were in effect for parts of Canada and a wide stretch of coastal New England in the hours before dawn. Hurricane and tropical storm watches were in effect elsewhere in Canada. New England is likely to experience weather similar to what occurs during a nor’easter, said Andrew Loconto, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Boston. The tropical-storm-force winds extend far from the center of the storm and are expected to reach the coastline.

Persons: Lee, Andrew Loconto, ” Mr, Loconto Organizations: National Weather Service Locations: Massachusetts, Nova Scotia, Canada, New England, Canada . New England, Boston

☆ Millions Under Warnings in New England as Hurricane Lee Approaches
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Judson Jones | More About Judson Jones | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The ultimate outcome for locations in New England will depend on how a few different conditions play out over the next two days. Though the storm is expected to weaken, the Hurricane Center said it would remain “a large and dangerous cyclone” as it approaches New England and Atlantic Canada. A hurricane watch, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within the area, stretched through down-east Maine from Stonington to the U.S.-Canada border. The Canadian Hurricane Center also issued a hurricane watch on Wednesday for part of the provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. The center said that its hurricane and tropical storm watches referred to conditions expected on Saturday.

Persons: Lee, Janet T, Mills Organizations: Hurricane Center, U.S ., Gov, White House, Canadian Hurricane Center Locations: New England, Bermuda, Nantucket, Massachusetts, Atlantic Canada, Maine, Stonington, U.S, Canada, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia

☆ What’s Next for Hurricane Season
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Judson Jones | More About Judson Jones | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In a typical Atlantic Ocean hurricane season, August is the ramp-up to September’s peak. This season came to life almost overnight in mid-August, producing a record four named storms in less than 48 hours. This season’s third hurricane, Idalia, formed on Aug. 29, 10 days earlier than average. It struck the southeastern U.S. last week as a Category 3 hurricane and caused a dangerous storm surge, wind damage and flooding. Only eight other hurricane seasons in more than 100 years of record-keeping have matched that pace, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University.

Persons: Idalia, Phil Klotzbach, Hurricane Katrina, Ida, Eric Blake, ” Organizations: Colorado State University, They, Hurricane, National Hurricane Center

Higher winds. In a 2018 paper, Dr. Kossin wrote that hurricanes over the United States had slowed 17 percent since 1947. Dr. Kossin likened the problem to walking around your back yard while using a hose to spray water on the ground. Because warmer water helps fuel hurricanes, climate change is enlarging the zone where hurricanes can form. There is a “migration of tropical cyclones out of the tropics and toward subtropics and middle latitudes,” Dr. Kossin said.

Persons: ”, James P, Kerry Emanuel, “, Kossin, “ you’ll, Emanuel, Dr Organizations: National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Hurricanes, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, National Hurricane Center, Researchers Locations: United States, subtropics, Japan

“It looks like somebody took a bunch of dynamite and threw it up on top of the trees,” he said. The hurricane made landfall on Wednesday in a sparsely populated area of Florida known as the Big Bend, which includes Levy County. Mr. Bobbitt, 47, knew that Cedar Key’s mayor had begged people to leave on Tuesday. “I felt like I had some resources here to be able to help folks,” Mr. Bobbitt said. “Our little downtown shopping district, with our restaurants and our shops — 100 percent of those buildings are ruined,” Mr. Bobbitt said.

Persons: Donald Cowan, Idalia, ”, Michael Presley Bobbitt, I’ve, Bobbitt, “, Mr, ” Mr, Kenny Young, Young, that’s Organizations: Cedar Locations: Levy County, Fla, Inglis, Florida, Bend, Levy, Gulf of Mexico

Higher winds. In a 2018 paper, Dr. Kossin wrote that hurricanes over the United States had slowed 17 percent since 1947. Because warmer water helps fuel hurricanes, climate change is enlarging the zone where hurricanes can form. There is a “migration of tropical cyclones out of the tropics and toward subtropics and middle latitudes,” Dr. Kossin said. If a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane develops into a Category 4 hurricane overnight, he said, “there’s no time to evacuate people.”

☆ Hurricane Idalia Barrels Toward Florida
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

With sustained winds of near 100 miles per hour, Hurricane Idalia is nearing Florida’s Gulf Coast, where it is expected to deliver dangerous winds and a life-threatening storm surge by the time it makes landfall tomorrow morning. Rain from the storm’s outer bands has already begun to lash Florida’s southwest coast. Idalia (pronounced ee-DAL-ya) is very likely headed for a vulnerable but sparsely populated portion of the Florida coastline known as the Big Bend, which could see a storm surge of up to 15 feet. Still, our in-house meteorologist Judson Jones told me that officials are especially concerned about the area around Apalachee Bay. “They have never seen a major hurricane,” Judson said.

Persons: Idalia, Judson Jones, ” Judson, “ It’s, Judson Locations: Coast, Florida, Bend, Tallahassee, Apalachee, Gulf Coast, Tampa

☆ How to Track a Hurricane
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Judson Jones | More About Judson Jones | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Hurricane Idalia continued to build strength over the Gulf of Mexico’s abnormally warm waters on Tuesday, taking aim at a vulnerable but sparsely populated portion of Florida’s coastline known as the Big Bend, where the peninsula curves west into the Panhandle. My colleagues and I on The Times’s Weather desk just redesigned our hurricane tracker with detailed information about the storm’s path and severity. In today’s newsletter, I’m going to tell you how best to track a hurricane’s progress, especially if you’re in its path. But people often misinterpret these maps, thinking they’ll be safe if they live just outside the cone, for example. Nearly a year ago, officials in Florida’s Lee County saw they were on the edge of the cone of uncertainty for Hurricane Ian and delayed an order to evacuate, with devastating consequences.

Persons: Idalia, they’ll, Hurricane Ian Locations: Bend, Tallahassee, Tampa, Florida’s Lee

Ian killed 75 people in Lee County, nearly half of the statewide death toll of 149, officials said. At that point, the National Hurricane Center flagged the possibility of a storm surge covering much of Cape Coral and Fort Myers. Parts of Fort Myers Beach had a 40 percent chance of a six-foot-high storm surge, according to the surge forecasts. In Lee County officials said they were waiting to make an assessment the next morning. Officials expanded their evacuation order later in the morning, and by the middle of the afternoon, Lee County officials were more urgent in their recommendation.

Persons: Ian, Lee County, Ron DeSantis, Lee, Fort Myers, ” Organizations: National Hurricane Service, National Hurricane Center, Fort Myers, Facebook Locations: Florida, Tampa, Fort Myers, Lee County, Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, State, Coral, Fort, Cape Coral, Neighboring Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Charlotte, Sarasota County, Lee

“If you were to throw gasoline on a fire that’s already burning, that fire would grow really rapidly, really quickly. “Being hurricane season prepared also means being compassionate and kind to yourself during times of hardship,” NOLA Ready, the city’s emergency preparedness campaign, advised in a post on Instagram. Ms. Sibley, an administrative assistant and Ms. Ozane’s sister, has tried to save money to help with riding out hurricanes only for other demands to interfere with that. “What am I going to do if a hurricane really comes?” she said. “I pray we don’t have a bad one this year,” Ms. Sibley said.

Persons: El Niño, ”, Roishetta Sibley Ozane, Phil Klotzbach, “ There’s, Hurricane Ida, Emily Kask, The New York Times El, El, Eric Blake, Andrew, Craig E, Blake, Michael, Laura, Ian, Clay Tucker, NOLA Ready, Hurricane Laura, Ozane, “ They’re, Lake Charles, Ms, Meoshia Sibley, Sibley, Ozane’s, ” Ms, “ Organizations: Biscayne, El, Colorado State University, ”, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic, The New York Times, National Hurricane Center, Experts, Louisiana State University, University of Southern, Delta, of Louisiana Locations: Biscayne Beach, Florida, Westlake, La, Hurricane, Galliano, United States, University of Southern Mississippi, New Orleans, Lake Charles, Louisiana

☆ Six Weather Takeaways on Hilary Right Now
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( Judson Jones | More About Judson Jones | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

As Tropical Storm Hilary nears the United States, here are six things you should know. Hilary has made landfall in Mexico, but the expected impact in the United States is the same, with damaging winds, strong waves and, in some areas, major flooding. As Hilary approaches the United States this afternoon, winds and rain are increasing across the Southwest. Forecasters said they were already experiencing hourly rain rates of a quarter to half an inch in Los Angeles and issued a flood advisory for Los Angeles County. In the coastal mountains, winds could still gust to hurricane force (74 miles per hour or greater).

Persons: Hilary Organizations: Los Locations: United States, Mexico, Southern California, San Diego, Los Angeles, Los Angeles County

☆ On Maui, a perfect storm of climate, colonialism, and failed emergency systems made the deadliest US wildfire in over a century
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Maiya Focht | Morgan Mcfall-Johnsen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

A deadly wildfire raged through the Hawaiian town of Lahaina, killing at least 111 people, last week. Aerial view shows destroyed homes and buildings near Front Street in Lahaina Town on August 10, 2023. Colonialism: Plantations brought the perfect wildfire fuel, an invasive grassLahaina was once the capital of the indigenous Hawaiian kingdom. Smoke and flames rise in Lahaina, Maui County, Hawaii, U.S., August 8, 2023 in this still image from video obtained from social media. A Mercy Worldwide volunteer makes damage assessment of charred apartment complex in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii on August 12, 2023.

Persons: Patrick T, Fallon, Jeff Masters, YUKI IWAMURA, Clay Trauernicht, Erin Hawk, We've, Abby Frazier, PATRICK T, FALLON, Dora, Dora didn't, Judson Jones, Jeff Melichar, didn't, Anne Lopez, Herman Andaya Organizations: Service, Getty, Yale, Washington Post, Plantations, Hawaii Public Radio, University of Hawaii, Maui . Flames, Reuters, Clark University, New York Times, REUTERS, ABC7, Mercy Worldwide Locations: Lahaina, Maui, Lahaina Town, Hawaii, U.S, Maui County, AFP

☆ What to Expect From Hurricane Hilary: Day-by-Day Forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Judson Jones | More About Judson Jones | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Friday: Weather deteriorates along the Baja California peninsula as tropical storm conditions begin late in the day. Saturday: Tropical storm conditions spread northward across the Baja California peninsula. Saturday night into Sunday morning: This is the earliest likely landfall along Baja California peninsula, and hurricane conditions are probable along the west coast of Mexico. Sunday evening: The Most torrential rain begins north of the U.S.-Mexico border as possible tropical storm-force winds arrive in Southern California. Sunday night: Strong winds and heavy rain continue across the Southwestern United States as the storm rapidly moves northward, likely across California.

Organizations: Southwestern Locations: Baja California, U.S, Mexico, California, Southern California, Southwestern United States

☆ Maps: Tracking Hurricane Hilary
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Judson Jones | Madison Dong | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Maps: Tracking Hurricane HilaryHurricane Hilary is expected to intensify into a major hurricane on Thursday before rapidly weakening on Saturday and making landfall somewhere along the west coast of Baja California or Southern California this weekend. By Madison DongForecasters are confident that Hilary will track parallel to the Mexico coast for a day or so, which makes it difficult to pinpoint where the storm will come ashore. Satellite image of Hurricane Hilary. Source: NOAAThe farther west it tracks, the greater the rainfall and winds that are expected in Southern California. If the storm moves inland over the Baja California Peninsula, the rainfall is likely to be more significant in places like Arizona.

Persons: Hurricane Hilary, Madison Dong, Hilary Organizations: Daylight, Madison, NOAA Locations: Baja California, Southern California, Mexico, California, Arizona

☆ Late-Season Heat Wave Hits the Northwest
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Judson Jones | More About Judson Jones | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The NewsEven as it continues to swelter, the South may get a break from steamy weather this week while the Northwest bakes in some of the highest temperatures people there will endure all summer. It isn’t unusual to get a day or two of 100-degree heat in places like Portland, Ore., but three days in a row this late in the season is uncommon, said Clinton Rockey, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Portland. According to Mr. Rockey, only about 40 percent of the people in northwestern Oregon have air-conditioning, which can be troublesome, especially when the low temperatures at night are expected to also break daily records for heat. The duration of this heat wave, which began on Sunday, and the high overnight temperatures are also a big concern for Matthew Cullen, a Seattle-based forecaster with the Weather Service who said there have been only a few hot days in his region this summer and no significant stretches of heat like this one, which could last at least until Thursday. While the heat is dangerous, Mr. Cullen doesn’t expect this to be anything like the heat wave of June 2021.

Persons: Clinton Rockey, Rockey, Matthew Cullen, Cullen doesn’t Organizations: National Weather Service, Weather Service Locations: Portland, Portland ., Oregon, Seattle

On the western side of Maui, some residents fled by swimming into the ocean, where they were rescued by the U.S. Coast Guard, Maui County officials said. Others escaped by car, driving past flames in the shadow of the West Maui Mountains. Two evacuation shelters closed because of the encroaching fire, and people inside were sent to new locations, Maui County officials said. The 911 emergency call service in West Maui was down early on Wednesday, and people were told to call the local police department directly instead, Maui County officials said. In Maui County, there were more 12,600 electricity customers without power on Wednesday, according to the tracking site poweroutage.us.

Persons: Hurricane Dora, Richard T, Bissen, Brian Schatz, Dora, —, Sylvia Luke, Hawaii’s Organizations: U.S . Coast Guard, Weather Service, Maui Counties, National Guard Locations: Maui, Maui County, West Maui, Hawaii, Lahaina, ”

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