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Meanwhile, extremely wide forecasts for new public borrowing requirements make the outlook for government bonds uncertain. Here are the main budget predictions for UK stocks, gilts and the pound. However NatWest analysts flagged that the OBR will likely revise down growth forecasts for the next five years, making the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. Hunt will likely keep the budget "reasonably dull" after Truss's "mini-budget" sent sterling to its lowest on record, she added. Investors in UK stocks are already grappling with a wide valuation gap with U.S. equities.

☆ Sterling slips after BoE's Mann warns of risks for the pound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Sterling slipped against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, after a Bank of England (BoE) rate-setter warned that the pound could be vulnerable to Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) outlooks. The pound could depreciate if investors have not yet fully priced in hawkish messages from central bank peers, Catherine Mann told Bloomberg Television in an interview. "The important question for me with regard to the pound is how much of that existing hawkish tone is already priced into the pound," she said. Traders are also attaching a 93% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase when the central bank meets to decide policy on March 23. There's no probability priced in that the bank could raise rates by more than that.

☆ U.S. dollar strengthens as Fed minutes signal higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index was up 0.40% at 104.57, easing off the high of 104.59 it reached earlier in the day. "The Fed minutes were just released indicating that a few officials could have supported a 50-bps hike in the last meeting, though most backed the 25bps outcome. "The theme throughout February has been a bias towards higher rates, and these minutes are consistent with that perspective." But Fed funds futures traders are now pricing the fed funds rate to reach 5.38% in July, and remaining above 5% all year. "Stronger-than-expected U.S. data releases since the start of this month have reinforced the Fed's messages about stronger for longer interest rates."

Survey data released on Tuesday showed U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February to reach its highest in eight months. He is the latest Fed official to signal that higher interest rates is likely needed to bring inflation back to desired levels. "Stronger-than-expected U.S. data releases since the start of this month have reinforced the Fed's messages about stronger for longer interest rates." The dollar index up 0.1% at 104.19, but off the high of 104.34 reached earlier in the day. A blockbuster U.S. employment report in early February sparked the rebound in the dollar, which has been helped along by a series of strong data releases.

☆ Dollar jumps to six-week high on higher rate expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar surged on Friday to hit a six-week high against a basket of currencies as a bout of resilient economic data out of the United States raised market expectations that more interest rate hikes were in the offing. The latest data releases gave the U.S. dollar a leg up, knocking sterling to a fresh six-week low of $1.1952 on Friday. Similarly, the kiwi tumbled to a six-week trough of $0.6228, while the euro bottomed at $1.0652, its lowest since Jan. 9. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose to a fresh six-week top of 104.31 and was on track for a third straight week of gains. U.S. Treasury yields have also surged on the back of further hawkish rate repricing, with the two-year yields last at 4.6762%.

NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower against the euro on Monday, as the common currency found support from European Central Bank officials' comments signalling additional jumbo interest rate rises in Europe. The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , to trade at its highest level since April last year, before paring gains to trade up 0.1 % at $1.0865. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%. "Really what's driving things is central bank policy divergence," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. So when you weigh the outlook for central bank policy, it depicts the dollar at a disadvantage, given market bets on the Fed moving more slowly than its counterparts abroad," Manimbo said.

The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , breaking the recent peak of $1.08875, to trade at its highest level since April last year. The single currency was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council members Klaas Knot and Peter Kazimir, who both advocated for two more 50 basis point hikes at meetings in February and March. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%. Investors also have around 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year, reflecting softer data on inflation, consumer spending and housing. The pound rose as high as $1.24475 , its highest in seven months, before turning 0.3% lower to $1.2355.

The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , breaking the recent peak of $1.08875, to trade at its highest level since April last year. It was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot, who said interest rates would rise by 50 basis points in both February and March and continue climbing in the months after. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured a hike of 50 basis points in March and an eventual top of 3.25% from the current rate of 2%. "Layered on top of that, it looks as if the ECB are going to carry on hiking interest rates fairly aggressively," Foley added. Investors also have around 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year, reflecting softer data on inflation, consumer spending and housing.

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.4% and the yen, which surged 2.7% against the dollar overnight, kept going and rose about 0.2% further to 128.65 per dollar. "No change in policy this month would be a setback for the yen," said Rabobank FX strategist Jane Foley. "However, we would look to buy the yen against the dollar on dips on anticipation of another (policy) move ... in the spring." INFLATION IN RETREATBeyond Japan, market sentiment was dominated by overnight U.S. December inflation data that landed more or less on consensus expectations. The U.S. dollar dropped 0.9% to a nine-month low of $1.0868 per euro and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose to a roughly five-month high at $0.6984.

☆ Stocks steady, yields rise as rate risks cloud 2023 outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

By 1152 GMT, the index was broadly unchanged after a heavy week for rate increases on Friday sent it to its lowest point since Nov. 10. Long-term borrowing costs rose for a fourth straight session and short-dated yields remained not far off their highest levels in more than a decade. It wreaked havoc even on rate markets," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest in Milan. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 4 basis points (bps) to 3.522%. Gold inched 0.1% higher at $1,764 an ounce, as a softer dollar countered pressure from expectations of higher U.S. rates.

Summary Global stocks index up 0.1%Japan could tweak inflation target - sourceshttp://tmsnrt.rs/2yaDPgnhttp://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVhMILAN, Dec 19 (Reuters) - World stocks inched higher on Monday but stayed near 6-week lows as investors started the year's last full trading week still mindful of interest rate hike risks to the economy in 2023. By 0902 GMT, the index rose 0.1% after a heavy week for interest rate increases on Friday sent it to its lowest point since Nov. 10. It wreaked havoc even on rate markets," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest in Milan. "Except for the BOJ and perhaps the Bank of England, there's little confidence in the other central banks. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.05% to a six-week low and the yen rose 0.5% to 135.9 per dollar.

Technology stocks rose 3.1% as all sectors and major bourses climbed. The British pound and euro both gained around 1% against the dollar, with sterling hitting a six-month high of 1.242 against the greenback shortly after the announcement. The euro also reached a six-month high of 1.0659. U.S. stocks also moved higher and the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 3.5% after the reading came in. Thursday will also see monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank.

☆ Dollar to rebound, accumulate safe-haven strength in 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The dollar will rebound against most currencies over the coming months, with the growing threat of recession in the U.S. and elsewhere keeping it firm in 2023 through safe-haven flows, according to market strategists polled by Reuters. Nearly two-thirds or 33 of 51 strategists who answered an additional question said the greater dollar risk over the coming month was that it would rebound rather than falling further. "We foresee volatility levels remaining high in the coming months and expect it is too early for USD bulls to fully capitulate." Most major central banks, including the Fed, are expected to end their tightening campaigns in early 2023. An overwhelming 80% majority, or 42 of 51 respondents, said there was not much scope for dollar upside based on monetary policy.

☆ Dollar gains broadly as upbeat U.S. data muddles Fed rate hike views
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( John Mccrank | Seher Dareen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The survey followed on the heels of stronger-than-expected job and wage growth data for November released last Friday. "The ISM services PMI data highlighted a U.S. economy that's still showing some strength, despite tighter financial conditions," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. "While that's good news for the growth outlook, it's not so great for the Fed trying to dampen demand and ease inflation." Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of its rate increases "as soon as December." "I think this issue about 'peak inflation, peak rates, peak dollar' - I think - is slowly turning into a 'persistence of inflation, a persistence of higher-for-longer interest rates," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

Before the U.S. data the euro, sterling and the Swedish crown had already risen sharply against the U.S. dollar as traders assessed a slew of economic data, including UK and euro zone job figures plus German economic sentiment. In Europe traders were also eying encouraging data such as German economic sentiment ZEW index, which rose in November. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank in London also pointed to other headlines supporting risk currencies against the dollar. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six counterparts including sterling and euro, was last down 0.46% at 106.162 after earlier touching 105.34, its lowest point since August. The Swedish crown rose sharply against the U.S. dollar after data showed inflation in Sweden rose less than expected in October.

☆ Dollar set for biggest two-day fall since 2009 as rate outlook shifts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Data on Thursday showed consumer inflation rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, its slowest rate since January and below forecasts for 8%. The dollar staged its biggest drop since late 2015 on Thursday as Treasury yields plunged, while other currencies - the yen and the pound in particular - jumped. The dollar index was down nearly 1.1%, having lost over 3% in the last two days - its biggest two-day decline since March 2009. The offshore yuan rallied by as much as 1.3% to hit its highest in over a month against the dollar, to 7.0592.

☆ Dollar heads for biggest two-day fall since 2009 as rate outlook shifts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Chinese Yuan and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken February 10, 2020. Data on Thursday showed consumer inflation rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, its slowest rate since January and below forecasts for 8%. The dollar staged its biggest drop since late 2015 on Thursday as Treasury yields plunged, while other currencies - the yen and the pound in particular - jumped. The dollar index was down nearly 1%, having lost over 3% in the last two days - its biggest two-day decline since March 2009. "It can be a little dangerous in that the 'bad news' is still out there and could come back to burn us, particularly with respect to the Fed," Rabobank currency strategist Jane Foley said.

☆ Dollar flags after biggest daily fall since 2015
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Chinese Yuan and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken February 10, 2020. The dollar staged its biggest drop since late 2015 as Treasury yields plunged, while other currencies - the yen and the pound in particular - jumped. The dollar index was down nearly 0.5%, while risk assets including stocks, emerging-market currencies and commodities rallied. The offshore yuan rallied by as much as 1.3% to hit its highest in over a month against the dollar, to 7.0592. Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $17,344, after plunging below $16,000 for the first time since late 2020 this week.

☆ Euro, sterling jump, dollar tumbles as market turns to risk assets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. dollar and British pound notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Euro and sterling rose against the safe-haven U.S. dollar on Monday, supported by a risk-on sentiment across markets with European stocks rising on persistent hopes China will ease COVID restrictions. Another risk-sensitive currency, sterling , reversed earlier losses to trade up 0.6% to $1.1442, while the euro jumped to its highest since Oct. 27. Four Fed policymakers on Friday also indicated they would still consider a smaller interest rate hike at their next policy meeting. Reporting by Joice Alves in London; Editing by Ed Osmond and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ VIEW Bank of England lifts UK rates to 3% in historic hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Toby MelvilleLONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Bank of England raised UK interest rates to 3% on Thursday in its largest rate hike since 1989 and warned of a "very challenging outlook" for the economy. Money markets showed traders now expect UK rates to peak at 4.6% by next September, compared to expectations of 4.8% just two days ago. UK bank stocks (.FTNMX301010) fell 0.8%BONDS: Yields on the two-year gilt were last up 1 basis points at 3.041%, compared with 3.064% before the BoE announced its decision. Rates markets are pricing another 50bps hike at each of the December and February meetings, although still reflect a lower terminal rate than just a week ago. ANDREW ALDRIDGE, PARTNER AT DEEPBRIDGE CAPITAL, LONDON"Quelling rampant inflation and kickstarting a slowing economy left the Bank facing a difficult balancing act, with today's interest rate hike to 3% hardly surprising in this context.

☆ POLL Dollar's retreat temporary, likely to reclaim recent highs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar's retreat in foreign exchange markets is temporary, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists, who said the greenback still had enough strength left to reclaim or surpass its recent highs and resume its relentless rise. The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its fourth jumbo increase in a row. However, for the December meeting interest rate futures showed a split on the odds of a 75 or 50 basis point increase. Those six and 12-month median forecasts were a slight upgrade from the October poll and the first since April. It was expected to trade around 146.0, 141.7 and 135.0 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.

☆ Dollar's retreat temporary, likely to reclaim recent highs - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Sterling slippery, stocks stalling as BoE boost fades
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%. European futures rose 0.6% and FTSE futures lifted 0.3%. The U.S. dollar index had its worst session in 2-1/2 years on Wednesday, recoiling from record highs. The Australian dollar fell 0.8% to $0.6470. Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to $88.62 a barrel.

☆ British pound plunges below $1.11 after new government announces tax cuts
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Bank of England said Thursday that the U.K. economy was likely already in a recession as it raised interest rates by 50 basis points. The pound has been on a precipitous fall against the greenback this year, hitting levels this month not seen since 1985. The embattled British pound fell 1.95% Friday against the dollar, after the new U.K. government announced a radical economic plan in a bid to boost growth. "The obvious implication is that BOE rates are likely to be higher for longer than they would have been otherwise. While textbooks suggest that higher short-term interest rates should be currency supportive, GBP has been demonstrating since the spring that this is not always thecase," she said in a note.

☆ Dollar towering, stocks cowering as Fed hikes higher
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

read moreS&P 500 futures were down 0.6% and the dollar was flying in early trade. The dollar index hit a 20-year high of 111.65 and the greenback's strength sent the Aussie, kiwi and Canadian dollars down to fresh multi-year lows. The Fed raised rates sharply, by 75 basis points, on Wednesday - the third such rise in a row. The yen is down about 20% on the dollar this year and at 144.29 per dollar is near a 24-year low. The U.S. dollar index hit a 20-year peak of 111.63 in the wake of the Fed hike.

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