DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ Fed's Bullard: disinflation prospects 'good' but not guaranteed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"Monetary policy is now at the low end of what is arguably sufficiently restrictive given current macroeconomic conditions," Bullard said in remarks prepared for delivery to a monetary policy conference at the Hoover Institution. Inflation expectations, which had risen last year, are now back down to levels Bullard said is consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. Accordingly, he said, "the prospects for continued disinflation are good but not guaranteed." Bullard said earlier this month he has an open mind about June, though rates may need to rise further. He did not specifically address the June meeting in his prepared remarks on Friday.

Indeed a third U.S. central banker speaking early in the day, Governor Michelle Bowman, signaled she feels further policy tightening may yet be appropriate, unless inflation drops more convincingly. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate five full percentage points over the past 14 months - the fastest pace of tightening in 40 years. Yes," Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said at a monetary policy conference at the Hoover Institution. That's notable from a policymaker who was among the first and most vocal to push for sharp rate hikes to fight inflation, back in mid-2021. But since then, he said, the Fed's rate hikes have helped bring down what had been a worrying rise in inflation expectations that, if left unchecked, could have sent actual inflation spiraling out of control.

☆ AMERICAS Debt cap tick-tock leaves eerie calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The issue dominated much of the G7 finance chiefs meeting in Japan. Dimon claimed any technical default could cause financial panic and JPMorgan had convened a 'war room' internally to deal with the issue. "It's very unfortunate, it's time-consuming, hopefully it won't happen, but it affects contracts, collateral, clearing houses, clients," Dimon said. Chinese stocks underperformed, with the G7 meeting mulling restrictions on investment to the world's second-biggest economy. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaksReuters GraphicsJobless claimsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Christina Fincher, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsInvestors and analysts took the Labor Department report on the whole as supporting the prospect that the Fed would pause its rate increases at the June 13-14 meeting. The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% inflation target, has been running at more than twice that level. Continued readings like the ones in April could weaken the case for pausing rate hikes. That's how increases in its policy rate influence economic activity. FEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting.

☆ Oil heads for third straight weekly loss as economic worries persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices held steady in early trading on Friday, but were set for a third straight week of losses after markets witnessed dramatic drops on fears of a weakening U.S. economy and slowing Chinese demand. For the week, Brent was set to close down 8.7%, while WTI was set to close 10.5% lower. Worries of a U.S. regional banking crisis persisted, worrying markets further, after PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) said it planned to explore strategic options. Traders are now focused on the release of U.S. employment data for April later in the day, hoping it could help gauge the health of the economy, as well as comments on monetary policy from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at the Economic Club of Minnesota. Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Apple comforts as payrolls loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Apple upped its dividend and authorized another $90 billion share repurchase program, same as a year ago. Apple's stock has outperformed most of Wall Street in 2023, up 28% year-to-date. After a torrid 2022, that narrow index is up 35% so far this year - far outstripping the Nasdaq 100's (.NDX) 18% gain and accounting for the bulk of the more modest 6% rise in the S&P500 <.S&P500>. And after three hefty daily retreats in a row for the S&P500 this week, futures are up 0.4% ahead of Friday's open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Oil ticks up, but set for third week of losses over demand concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose slightly in Asian morning trade on Friday, but were set for a third straight week of losses after markets witnessed dramatic drops on fears of a weakening U.S. economy and slowing Chinese demand. For the week, Brent was set to close down 8.5%, while WTI was set to close 10.3% lower. "It has been a double whammy for oil prices," said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG in Singapore. In China, factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector. Service activity in China grew through April, though the rate of this expansion has slowed, data showed on Friday.

The path to the pause will roll out in marquee monthly data on the key topics of jobs and prices, but also weekly series tracking emerging concerns about the financial industry. Here's a guide to what's ahead:JOBS: Next release May 5The data calendar will let the Fed receive two monthly jobs reports, covering April and May, before its June 13-14 policy meeting. For the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the measure used to set the Fed's 2% inflation target, only the April report will be available. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsFEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting. The curtain of silence around the May meeting lifts on Friday, May 5, and Fed officials can speak publicly about their views through Friday, June 2.

☆ With the banking crisis on hold, the Fed is back to fighting inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Federal Reserve's policy pendulum has swung back to inflation fighting. "The view is based on banking sector stress remaining contained, the economic expansion continuing and core inflation remaining stubbornly high." A cooling crisis Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bankers in late February and early March were indicating chances of half-point rate hikes . Watching the banks, and the market To be sure, the banking situation remains in flux and could yet shape Fed policy. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy moves, has jumped about half a percentage point over the past two weeks.

Nearly 90% - 94 of 105 - of the economists who participated in the latest Reuters poll, predicted the U.S. central bank would hike its key policy rate by 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range at a May 2-3 meeting, in line with market pricing. Beyond that, 59 of 100 economists expected the Fed to keep its policy rate unchanged through at least this year. Only 26 respondents with an end-2023 view forecast a cut, similar to market expectations. "We maintain the first rate cut in March 2024. In an exclusive interview with Reuters this week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a much higher peak policy rate than currently expected, as inflation remains stubbornly high.

TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - Data showing British inflation stayed above 10% in March meant the pound climbed against the dollar while other currencies dipped, with the greenback underpinned by a tick-up in U.S. yields. Sterling was last 0.25% higher at $1.2454, heading back to last week's 10-month high, after data showed British consumer price inflation eased by less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%. However, he added: "With the Fed expected to hike in May and the ECB to hike by more over the coming months, the positive impetus from this data for the pound will likely be contained." Expectations for higher official rates in a market relative to those elsewhere typically drag money market and government bond yields higher, attracting cash into a country while boosting its currency. "It's the volatility in the bond market that's driving the dollar, not the other way round."

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.2%, thanks to a broad-based decline in equities around the world. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures , fell between 0.3-0.5%, suggesting a touch of weakness at the opening bell. The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said that, far from pausing, the central bank should keep raising interest rates, based on how persistent inflation has proven to be. UK inflation fell to 10.1% in March, from February's 10.4% - above expectations for a decline to 9.8% and the highest in western Europe, according to data on Wednesday.

☆ Dollar regains footing as yields rise, Fed outlook weighed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which gauges the greenback against six major peers, ticked up 0.09% to 101.81 in Asian trading, following a 0.36% slide on Tuesday that reversed the 0.54% rally of the session before. The dollar-yen pair, which tends to track U.S. yields, added 0.19% to 134.35 yen per dollar , recovering from a 0.29% retreat on Tuesday. "It's the volatility in the bond market that's driving the dollar, not the other way round." The dollar index last year culminated a breathless 16-month surge by hitting a two-decade high of 114.78 at the end of September, which was followed by a steep, steady retreat until the start of February. However, bank earnings from recent days have proved robust overall, and bond yields have recovered strongly from multi-month lows reached last month.

☆ Stocks slip as focus falls back on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published later on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. Markets are pricing an 86% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting, and that wasn't swayed terribly much by conflicting outlooks from two non-voting Fed officials on Tuesday. St Louis Fed President James Bullard told Reuters the Fed ought to keep raising rates to subdue persistent inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC he thinks the Fed should hike one more time then pause to consider the next move. The prospect of peak rates has been applying downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

☆ Stocks advance, US 10-year yield slips as earnings roll in
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Reuters GraphicsGoldman peer Bank of America (BAC.N) veered between gains and losses in choppy trading after its earnings beat estimates, and was last up 0.63%. "Earnings season so far has actually been better than expected by far on both earnings and revenues," said Randy Frederick, managing director, trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.38% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.24%. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.3 basis points to 3.578% while the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, was up 2.8 basis points at 4.216%. U.S. crude settled up 0.04% at $80.86 per barrel and Brent was at $84.77, up 0.01% on the day.

☆ Debt ceiling drama is back and it's coming for markets. Here's what to know as a deadline looms.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

If the trend returns to the upside, it'll buck many of the gloomiest predictions of a crushing earnings recession and a painful stock market sell-off — at least for now. Last week, markets started showing early signs that investors are stressed about a possible US default as the deadline looms without an agreement in sight. Join us in demanding a reasonable negotiation, a responsible debt ceiling, an agreement that brings spending under control" McCarthy said. Here are the latest market moves. Here's why Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson doesn't believe in the latest stock market rally.

☆ Dollar regains footing amid higher yields as Fed outlook weighed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar steadied on Wednesday after it seesawed with bond market volatility as investors scrutinized U.S. economic indicators, Federal Reserve commentary and corporate earnings for clues about the path for interest rates. The dollar index — which gauges the greenback against six major peers — ticked up 0.11% to 101.83 in Asian trading, following a 0.36% slide on Tuesday that reversed the 0.54% rally of the session before. U.S. two-year Treasury yields , which are extremely sensitive to Fed expectations, reached an almost one-month high of 4.231% overnight, and remained elevated in Tokyo trading on Wednesday. "It's the volatility in the bond market that's driving the dollar, not the other way round." The Aussie eased 0.06% to $0.67245 on Wednesday, following a 0.41% rally in the prior session.

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - If a mega Western recession is coming down the pike in the second half of this year, someone should point it out to the junk bond market. The investment herd seems more convinced than ever that recession is on the way amid tightening bank credit after the March bank stress - even if not all the incoming evidence supports that take. More than a third now see the biggest risk ahead as a bank credit crunch and global recession. And that's with junk spreads more than three times higher than quality corporates. U.S. and European junk bond spreads historicallyBank of America survey on investment grade bonds vs junkCOURAGE AND DECOMPRESSIONThere's little doubt than many investors want to steer well clear, for now at least.

☆ Morning Bid: Crowded bonds unnerved
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This has some wondering if the recent dash for cash and top-rated bonds has become a bit crowded and how much more tightening central banks have to do. As we move into the weeds of the first-quarter U.S. earnings season, it's been a mixed bag so far. That clearly unnerved UK government bonds - where 10 year yields jumped 10bps - but it also jarred sovereign bonds around the world. Elsewhere, further signs of healing were evident in the global bank funding market. Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) sold $1 billion of additional tier-1 debt, the first major global bank to sell the risky securities since similar bonds issued by Credit Suisse were wiped out last month.

☆ European markets set for flat open as investors digest comments by Fed officials
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a flat open Wednesday as earnings season continues and investors digest mixed signals from U.S. Federal Reserve officials on the trajectory of interest rate hikes. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told CNBC that he sees one more rate hike of 25 basis points, before pausing to see its impact on the economy. That would take the U.S. Federal Funds rate to 5% to 5.25%. Bostic's words come as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told Reuters that he favors a higher terminal rate of between 5.50% and 5.75%. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed overnight.

☆ Gold drifts lower on firmer dollar, Fed rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies US dollar up 0.1%Markets pricing in 25 bps rate hike by Fed in MayApril 19 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, while traders assessed chances of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates just once more in May before pausing. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,003.03 per ounce, as of 0337 GMT. The dollar index was up 0.1%, making gold expensive for buyers holding other currencies. "While that may provide an anchor for gold prices, given the recent rally and overextended technical conditions, the possibility of some unwinding (in prices) upon validation of the Fed's rate outlook may still remain on the table." Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates dim the non-yielding asset's appeal.

☆ Gold slips on firmer dollar, Fed rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, while investors assessed the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates just once more in May before pausing. Higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. The Fed should continue raising rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Tuesday. But Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said one more hike "should be enough" before taking a step back to "see how our policy is flowing through the economy." Markets see a 95% chance of the Bank of England raising interest rates next month.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Wednesday as Wall Street's earnings season continued and U.S. Federal Reserve officials delivered mixed signals on future rate hikes. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told CNBC that he sees one more rate hike of 25 basis points, before pausing to see its impact on the economy. This would take the U.S. Federal Funds rate to 5% to 5.25%. Bostic's words come as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told Reuters that he favors a higher terminal rate of between 5.50% and 5.75%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was 0.11% up in early trading, while Japan's Nikkei 225 dipped 0.27% and the Topix fell 0.3%.

Investors may see rate cuts in the Fed's near future, part of a recession-breeds-accommodation view of the world, but "the labor market just seems very, very strong. The bulk of Fed policymakers as of March felt one more rate increase, which would raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to a range between 5.00% and 5.25%, was all that would be needed. Some policymakers and analysts worry it is those final steps that could push the economy into a recession. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsLIMIT GUIDANCEGiven how inflation and the economy are behaving, Bullard said, the fewer promises made the better. Recession forecasts "are coming from models that put too much weight on the idea that interest rates went up quickly," Bullard said.

Unlike a growing number of central banks in Asia who have pressed the pause button or are close to doing so, the BoE and ECB are both expected to continue raising rates in their battle to get inflation back down towards target. St Louis Fed president James Bullard is much more hawkish though, as he confirmed in an interview with Reuters. The central banks of Australia, Indonesia, India, Singapore and South Korea have all paused, and the Philippine central bank governor signaled a pause in May. But the road ahead looks bumpy, and other indicators for March were mixed - retail sales smashed forecasts, but investment fell short. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Search resuls for: "James Bullard"

25 mentions found