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☆ Russia's economy will shrink again this year as Putin's war on Ukraine worsens inflation and labor shortages, ratings agency says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Scope Ratings sees a 0.8% contraction in Russia's economy this year, Reuters reported. This is as the country's average inflation sits at 6%, made worse by a serious labor shortage. That's as the Kremlin has turned to a total war economy: it has spent around 5% of Russia's GDP on the Ukraine war, while pushing for increased military production. Meanwhile, the agency also warned that Russia's war will prevent it from addressing pre-existing problems with the economy, such as weak investing, low productivity growth, and a declining population. Meanwhile, the Russian government is projecting 1.2% growth, an estimate recently outpaced by President Vladimir Putin's own forecasts of 2%, Reuters reports.

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin's Organizations: Reuters, Service, Kremlin, International Monetary Locations: Ukraine, Russian

☆ BOJ's Ueda keeps free hand, says no time frame for achieving price goal
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOJ's target remained elusive until last year, when supply constraints and a spike in commodity costs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine drove up Japan's core consumer inflation near 4%. "The time it takes for the impact of monetary policy to appear on the economy could move around a lot depending on circumstances. We therefore do not have any time frame in mind," Ueda said on Friday. Given it will take more time to achieve our price target, we will maintain the easy policy," he said, when asked by an opposition lawmaker on the likelihood of selling the BOJ's holdings. "Given uncertainty over the outlook, clarifying a set time frame for achieving our price target could have unexpected impact on financial markets," Ueda said.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda, We'll, Leika Kihara, Chang, Ran Kim, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Ukraine

[1/2] Staff members work at a packing section at a garment factory in Colombo after the International Monetary Fund's executive board approved a $3 billion bailout for Sri Lanka. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut its standing deposit facility rate and standing lending facility rate to 13% and 14%, respectively, from 15.5% and 16.5% previously. The central bank raised rates by a record 950 basis points last year to tame inflation and by 100 bps on March 3 this year. "There is a need to bring the interest rates down because the cost of government financing is high," said Udeeshan Jonas, chief strategist at equity research firm CAL. Sri Lanka secured a $2.9 billion bailout from the IMF in March and aims to complete restructuring debt talks by September, coinciding with the first review by the lender.

Persons: Dinuka, Udeeshan Jonas, Uditha Jayasinghe, Swati Bhat, Shri Navaratnam, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: Staff, Monetary Fund's, Sri, REUTERS, Central Bank of Sri, Colombo, Monetary Fund, Reuters, CAL, Thomson Locations: Colombo, Sri Lanka, Lanka's, Central Bank of Sri Lanka

☆ IMF urges BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, but be ready to shift course
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It won't happen overnight" as the public must be convinced Japan won't fall back to deflation, Gourinchas said, adding it was "too early" for the BOJ to tighten policy. While it was appropriate to keep interest rates ultra-low, the BOJ must keep in mind the experience of other central banks that are still struggling to tame high inflation. So, there is a need to be vigilant and to be ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation remains too elevated." He also said it would be "very difficult" to tighten monetary policy while maintaining YCC, due to the challenge of determining the appropriate level for two rate targets. And then, if the need arises to tighten monetary policy, it can do so as part of the usual tightening of the policy rate," he said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary Fund's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Japan, TOKYO

☆ IMF's Gopinath sees 'sizeable' upside inflation risks, says markets too optimistic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

2 official said on Wednesday she sees sizeable risks that inflation will remain high or accelerate in many emerging markets and urged central banks to keep monetary policies tight. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath told a conference hosted by the Central Bank of Brazil that markets were probably "too optimistic" about what it would take to bring down inflation in emerging markets. "Despite encouraging signs, I am worried that price pressures seem entrenched in many economies and that upside inflation risks are sizeable," she said in remarks prepared for the event. That was a lesson learned from the high inflation period of the 1970s and it "very much applies today," Gopinath said. But these countries still faced "considerable downside risks" from monetary policy tightening in advanced economies, and conditions may get "significantly worse," she said.

This paved the way for a sign-off on the IMF loan, which was agreed at staff level in December. Some $5.4 billion of debt to official creditors has been earmarked for restructuring, according to government data, as well as $14.6 billion of debt to private overseas creditors. Zambia, the first African country to default in the COVID-19 era, secured an IMF loan in September 2022 and still has not agreed debt restructuring terms with creditors. Analysts expect Ghana's process to be faster and smoother than Zambia's since China holds a smaller proportion of Ghana's debt. China is Zambia's largest bilateral creditor and has been accused of delaying that country's debt restructuring, which it denies.

Geoff Gottlieb, the IMF's Senior Regional Representative for Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, warned of the potential for fiscal policy to fuel inflation and so force monetary policy to remain tighter for longer. "We think Polish fiscal policy can do more to help reduce inflation," he said in an interview. "A new fiscal impetus would likely add to inflationary pressures and could also necessitate additional monetary policy tightening." "Our recommendation is for the (Monetary Policy Council) to resume monetary policy tightening if key indicators - core inflation momentum, wage growth, and the economy - fail to slow as projected," he said, urging the MPC to make clear that talk of cuts was premature. The European Commission projects Poland's average inflation rate at 6% next year, the highest in the European Union, retreating from nearly twice that level expected this year.

ORLANDO, Florida, May 15 (Reuters) - China's yuan faces significant long-term obstacles to becoming a global reserve currency of any great import, but the biggest challenge in the near term is the fact that nobody wants to buy Chinese bonds. Reuters ImageReuters Image"It is very hard to create a reserve currency, without attractive reserve assets. Exante Data's figures show foreign investors bought a net $558 billion of Chinese bonds between 2010 and 2021. But in a pool of $12 trillion global reserves, of which nearly 80% is denominated in dollars and euros, these are very small numbers. Reuters ImageRESERVE STATUSAny currency that has designs on attaining international reserve status must meet several criteria and fulfill several roles.

☆ After First Republic's rescue, economists predict further pain with a 'new era' of higher inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Leah Millis | ReutersAfter the rescue of First Republic Bank by JPMorgan Chase over the weekend, leading economists predict a prolonged period of higher interest rates will expose further frailties in the banking sector, potentially compromising the capacity of central banks to rein in inflation. Almost 80% of chief economists surveyed said central banks face "a trade-off between managing inflation and maintaining financial sector stability," while a similar proportion expects central banks to struggle to reach their inflation targets. Yet several leading economists told a panel at the World Economic Forum Growth Summit in Geneva on Tuesday that higher inflation and greater financial instability are here to stay. That means inflation, the impulse of inflation will be higher." She added that it "defies logic" that as the industry tries to pivot rapidly to a higher interest rate environment, there won't be further casualties beyond SVB, Signature, Credit Suisse and First Republic.

Analysis of global central bank coffers does show the dollar's share of overall reserve holdings is gradually being chipped away - but the official sector is not selling dollar-denominated assets. In fact it's still buying them on aggregate, and the private sector is too. The overseas private sector was also a solid buyer of U.S. agency debt, further calling into question the narrative in some market quarters that the dollar's status as the world's preeminent currency is rapidly eroding. Jen calculates that the dollar's share of official global reserves slumped to 47% last year, down from 55% the year before and 73% in 2001. Including the private sector, total foreign inflows into Treasuries over the past two years have been substantial.

☆ Economists and policymakers were fretting about a wage-price spiral. Not any more
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The experts were worried about a so-called wage-price spiral. Businesses' revenues "have risen faster than costs, and so margins have room to absorb rising labor costs." "It's not that a wage-price spiral couldn't happen, but it's low on the list of concerns versus the factors we know are problematic," she said. A key mechanism that would fuel a wage-price spiral, workers' bargaining power, has been weakened because unions have less power than in the 1970s, Makszin added. "But if you let interest rates go down against inflation and in effect weaken, you have an inflation spiral.

☆ New BOJ chief's message to world: We're staying the course - for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term rates at -0.1% and the 10-year Japan government bond yield around zero with an implicit cap of 0.5%. "We're in an economy where we're going to be hit more by supply shocks, and monetary policy will face more serious trade-offs," she said on Friday. Ranil Salgado, the IMF's Japan mission chief, sees scope for the BOJ to modify the long-term yield target this year, given heightening prospects of durable wage growth. As long as the short-term rates remain zero or slightly negative, the BOJ can keep monetary policy accommodative even if it tweaks the yield target, he said. "We are advising (the BOJ) to pretty much already be thinking about it," Salgado said on the idea of tweaking YCC.

☆ Analysis: New BOJ head's message to world: We're staying the course - for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ IMF sees high rates, oil prices and inflation worries in Middle East
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) - Banks in the Middle East and Central Asia have very limited exposure to last month's banking turmoil in the United States and Europe, but financial pressures are adding to strains caused by high interest rates, volatile oil prices and years of double-digit inflation, a top IMF official said on Saturday. Jihad Azour, director of the International Monetary Fund's Middle East and Central Asia department, said the banking sector strains came on top of tighter monetary policies that raised rates and reduced accessibility to finance. "We are worried because the matrix of risks keeps growing: high interest rates, volatility in oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and it's the third year in the row where you have double-digit inflation," he said. "And they have a window of opportunity with governments now willing to do more, and not to put money in the central bank coffers." The IMF on Thursday forecast that GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa region will slow to 3.1% in 2023, from 5.3% a year ago.

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's steering committee on Friday said it would accelerate its discussions on quota reforms at the global lender with an eye to making "considerable progress" by its next meeting in October. "In this context, we support at least maintaining" the IMF’s current lending resources, Calvino said in a summary of the committee's work. "With regard to IMF resources, I continue to believe that overall resources remain adequate," Yellen said. "At the same time, the IMF needs to follow through on its commitment to a new quota formula that is both fair and simple and primarily reflects the economic size of its member countries." He called for a "pragmatic approach" to complete the review by December to increase IMF resources and to "strengthen the voice and representation of dynamic emerging market and developing economies."

☆ 'Manufactured' debt ceiling crisis would damage U.S. economic rebound, key Treasury official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Chelsey Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON — A failure by Congress to raise the U.S. debt ceiling could spark a "manufactured" crisis that derails economic progress, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said Friday. Adeyemo, who has been meeting with world financial leaders in Washington this week during the International Monetary Fund's spring meetings, said continued delays in hiking the $31.4 trillion debt limit threaten international confidence in the U.S. economy. "It's critical that Congress lift the debt limit," the top Treasury official told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Friday. "The last thing we need is a manufactured crisis in our country." Pushing off a bill to avoid debt default "will take away from that confidence that the world is showing" the U.S. and "would slow down the momentum that we had," Adeyemo said.

☆ ECB must 'carry on and act consistently' with interest rate hikes, policymaker says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The European Central Bank must "carry on and act consistently" with interest rate hikes as it continues its efforts to tackle high inflation, policymaker Olli Rehn said Friday. Euro zone core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — reached an all-time record of 5.7% in March, up from 5.6% in February. Headline inflation, meanwhile, fell significantly to an annual rate of 6.9% last month. "Inflation is still by far too high, and especially I'm concerned about core inflation, underlying inflation," Rehn told CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche at the International Monetary Fund's spring meeting in Washington, D.C. The ECB has raised interest rates by 50 basis points at its last six consecutive policy meetings.

☆ China takes swipe at Western 'friend-shoring' efforts
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - China's central bank governor on Friday took a swipe at efforts by Western economies to trade more with allies and rely less on the world's largest goods-exporting country, saying such "friend-shoring" attempts could prevent global supply chain tension from easing. Reducing their deep dependence on supply chains with China at their center has become a top priority among Western economies as Beijing's threats to Taiwan heighten geopolitical risks in Asia. "Despite an overall easing of supply chain tensions, they continue to be challenged by protectionist measures such as onshoring, nearshoring, and friend-shoring," Yi said. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has recently encouraged "friend-shoring," or the diversification of supply chains away from China to market-oriented democracies such as India. The fragmentation of global trade has drawn warnings from international institutions including the IMF.

☆ EU will issue fresh wave of sanctions to stop Russia reinventing their war machine, official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"We have to make sure they don't find ways around our sanctions," McGuinness said. McGuinness was also asked whether the EU will look to penalize countries that aid Russia in evading sanctions with new legislation. The U.S. Treasury Department last year published a list of countries helping Russia circumvent sanctions, which included Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. "We're changing our legislation to look at individuals who are involved in sanctions intervention," McGuinness said. Some countries, including Estonia and France, have called on the EU to sanction Moldovan and Georgian oligarchs allegedly working to help Russia destabilize Ukraine.

☆ IMF's fiscal chief says U.S. CPI data shows need to maintain inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Consumer Price Index data for March shows persistent above-target inflation pressures, "validating" the International Monetary Fund's emphasis on continuing to fight inflation at IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings this week, IMF Fiscal Affairs Director Vitor Gaspar said. Gaspar told a news conference that fiscal tightening could help remove upward pressures on interest rates by helping reduce fiscal demand and added that he saw little chance of a broad sovereign debt crisis in coming years. Reporting by David LawderOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks defy negativity in CPI vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate stance hinges on incoming data such as Wednesday's consumer price report, but fears of recession remain just that. And so investors return to scrutinising the Fed to see if the central bank forces the recession by tightening ever further. With Fed policy meeting minutes due later in the day, the runes of what must have been a tense gathering of officials in the middle of the regional banking shock will be eyed closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reckoned recession was still a risk but inflation wouldn't get back close to the 2% target until next year. Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) underperformed overnight - with geopolitical tensions high surrounding Taiwan and Chinese military operations around the island.

Reuters GraphicsNOTHING 'BROKEN' YETInternational economic officials gathering in Washington this week for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings can take some comfort that pandemic-era risks are continuing to diminish. An aggressive year of central bank rate hikes hasn't yet "broken" any of the economies involved, with the U.S. unemployment rate at 3.5%, near its lowest level since the late 1960s. Still, that terminal rate remains unclear, and the end of synchronized tightening by the Fed, BoE and European Central Bank doesn't mean tight monetary policy is going away. Wages, services and food are driving price growth to the point that the ECB's attention has shifted almost entirely to underlying inflation on fears that rapid price growth is at risk of getting stuck above target. The U.S. central bank is expected to increase its benchmark overnight interest rate by another quarter of a percentage point next month, and signal whether more hikes may be warranted.

☆ Economies around the world are in a 'pretty tenuous' situation, says Standard Chartered
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomies around the world are in a 'pretty tenuous' situation, says Standard CharteredSteve Brice of Standard Chartered Wealth Management discusses the International Monetary Fund's warning about the global growth outlook.

☆ IMF says public debt is growing faster than pre-COVID projections
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Public debt to return to nearly 100% in 2028Growth in debt dominated by U.S., China39 low-income countries in or near debt distressWASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Public debt is higher and growing faster than projected before the COVID-19 pandemic, driven mainly by the United States and China, the world's two largest economies, the International Monetary Fund's top fiscal expert said on Wednesday. Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, said global public debt soared to almost 100% of GDP in 2020 before posting its steepest drop in 70 years by 2022, although it remained about 8 percentage points above the pre-pandemic level. The IMF's report warned that risks were high, and reducing debt vulnerabilities should be an "overriding priority," especially in low-income developing countries where 39 countries were already in or near debt distress. To guard against further and worsening problems, regulators should consider strengthening crisis management frameworks and their regimes for dealing with troubled institutions. "Among the worst possible crises, are crises where you have a financial crisis simultaneously with a sovereign debt crisis, and that is something labeled as the doom loop," Gaspar said.

☆ Asset management firm discusses U.S. inflation print and Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will hike rates if U.S. inflation print is hot — and it'll be a mistake: Asset management firmNeal Wilson, co-CEO of EJF Capital, says he agrees with the International Monetary Fund's report from yesterday.

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