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"The culture wars are coming to UK businesses, including the financial sector," said Andre Spicer, dean of City University's Bayes Business School. It also cited "risk factors including... controversial public statements which were felt to conflict with the bank's purpose". However, data from watchdog the Financial Ombudsman Service showed complaints about account closures represented a tiny fraction of a bank's overall customer base. Experts say other banks will now be scrambling to ensure their own policies and committees are behaving appropriately, to avoid further scandals. The CEO of Britain's biggest domestic bank Lloyds said on Wednesday the bank's own policies did not include looking at customers' political or personal beliefs.
Persons: Nigel Farage, Coutts, Andre Spicer, Howard Davies, Alison Rose, Rose, Peter Flavel, Charles Dickens, Queen Elizabeth II, Spicer, Harriet Baldwin, Bill Winters, Samuel Gregg, Banks, Gregg, University's Spicer, Rupert Younger, ", Sinead Cruise, Iain Withers, Lawrence White, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Brexit Party, NatWest, Bayes Business School, Coutts, Treasury, Bank of England, BBC, Standard Chartered, Farage, American Institute for Economic Research, Facebook, Financial, Service, Barclays, Lloyds, Centre, Oxford University's Said Business School, Thomson Locations: America
According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 1.8% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 2.0% pace in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, likely remained a pillar of support, although the pace of growth slowed from the second quarter's robust 4.2% rate. Further contribution to GDP growth was expected from government spending. Inventory investment is a wild card, though most economists are penciling in a contribution to GDP growth of at least five tenths of a percentage point. Business sharply reduced inventory accumulation in the January-March quarter in anticipation of weaker domestic demand, slicing 2.14 percentage points off GDP growth that period.
Persons: Dean Maki, they're, Mike Skordeles, Joe Biden's, Sean Snaith, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Point72, Management, Labor Department, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, University of Central Florida's Institute, Economic, Fed, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Stamford , Connecticut, Atlanta, United States, London
On the job market, indications like the latest jobs report — which showed that fewer Americans are getting hired — can be interpreted as bad news. As of the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, there were 1.6 jobs available for every job seeker — or more than 3 million job openings than people searching for jobs. What’s good news for investorsInvestors are searching for signs that the Federal Reserve will stop hiking interest rates, or better yet, cut them. When the Fed raises interest rates it raises the cost of doing business for companies who rely on outside funding. That’s because interest rates on loans tend to rise in tandem with increases in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate.
Persons: , It’s, that’s, , Sean Snaith, Snaith, Jerome Powell, Kermit Schoenholtz, Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Fed, Institute for Economic, University of Central, Labor, Survey, Kermit Schoenholtz , New York University, Citigroup, CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, University of Central Florida, Kermit Schoenholtz , New
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since December 2020, the survey of establishments showed. Government employment remains 161,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. Leisure and hospitality employment remains 369,000 below its pre-pandemic levels. The household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived showed employment rebounding 273,000, reversing the 310,000 decline in May. Reuters Graphics"Though demand for labor remains unmatched, the labor shortages that employers sighed over a year ago have definitely subsided some," said Andrew Flowers, lead labor economist at Appcast.
Persons: Sean Snaith, payrolls, Selcuk Eren, Andrew Flowers, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve, Labor, University of Central Florida's Institute, Economic, Reuters, Manufacturing, Institute for Supply, Treasury, Companies, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Washington
In previous refugee crises, for example in Syria, refugees' desire to return home has faded with time, UNHCR studies show. Conscription-aged men are restricted from leaving Ukraine, so working-aged women, and children, make up the majority of refugees. Ukraine's population problem goes beyond millions of refugees. A census in 2001 - the country's only so far - recorded a population of 48.5 million. Demographer Libanova estimated the population at between 28 million and 34 million at the start of 2023 in parts of the country controlled by Kyiv.
Persons: Korzh, Volodymyr Kostiuk, Kostiuk, It's, Dmytro Tsygankov, Ella Libanova, Libanova, Ksenia Karpenko, Karpenko, Corina Rodriguez, Catarina Demony, Mike Collett, White, Frank Jack Daniel Our Organizations: United Nations, UNHCR, Kyiv, for Economic Research, Political, for Economic, MEN, National Academy of Science, European Commission's, Research, The, Economic Strategy, Reuters, Thomson Locations: KYIV, Europe, Kyiv, Portugal, Ukraine, Lagoa, Syria, Ukrainian, Moscow, Russia, Crimea, Belarus, Russian, Tarragona, Spain, Madrid, Barcelona, Lisbon
Why It Matters: Germany has long neglected military spending. Despite intense pressure from the United States, Germany last spent 2 percent of its G.D.P. on defense in 1991, a year after the reunification of the former East and West German nations, according to statistics from the World Bank. The United States is using incentives, including tax breaks, to lure businesses in the green energy and technology sectors. “Germany is increasingly falling behind when it comes to investment and location decisions,” said Tanja Gönner, general director of the German Federation of Industries.
Persons: Marcel Fratzscher, Lindner, , Tanja Gönner Organizations: World Bank, German Institute for Economic Research, German Federation of Industries Locations: Germany, United States, West, Russia, Ukraine
The 2023 Global Peace Index released its annual ranking of the most peaceful countries in the world. The Institute for Economics and Peace 2023 study measured a country's level of negative peace using three domains of peacefulness:Ongoing domestic and international conflictSocietal safety and securityMilitarizationOverall the index found that the world is a little less safe than last year, due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic — which is unchanged from the 2022 survey results. While the United States ranked 131 on the list, seven out of the top 10 most peaceful countries in the world are in Europe.
Organizations: for Economics, United States Locations: Europe
Although they remain relatively modest in value, German exports to Georgia rose by 92%, while those to Kazakhstan rose 136%, to Armenia 172% and to Tajikistan 154%. An 11th package of EU sanctions, currently being negotiated, will also focus on people and countries circumventing existing trade restrictions. "The circumvention of sanctions against Russia is unacceptable," German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said in Brussels on Tuesday. That came after a six-fold rise in German exports to Kyrgyzstan last year following Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. "But because Turkey does not participate in EU sanctions, EU goods are further exported from there to Russia."
Bangladesh will pay Russia $318 million worth of yuan for a loan payment on a nuclear power plant. Russia, whose state-owned Rosatom is building the nuclear plant, had initially insisted on payment in rubles and refused yuan due to concern over potential conversion losses, according to Bloomberg. But a representative for Rosatom confirmed to the Washington Post that the loan payment will be made in yuan. The payment is partial reimbursement for a $12 billion loan the South Asian country previously received from Moscow, and will help fund a nuclear power plant near the capital city of Dhaka. Bangladesh's yuan payment is the latest example of de-dollarization.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS only party that could derail Credit Suisse takeover, law professor saysPeter V. Kunz, managing director of the Institute for Economic Law at the University of Bern, weighs in on the legal path ahead for the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse.
The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts, to be presented in Berlin on Wednesday, expect a 0.1% expansion in gross domestic product in the first quarter. The five economic institutes which prepare the Joint Economic Forecasts predict GDP growth in Germany of 0.3% in 2023, up from a predicted contraction of 0.4% in the autumn, two sources familiar with the data told Reuters. The economics ministry will update its forecasts incorporating the results of the Joint Economic Forecasts this spring. The economic institutes predict inflation of 6.0% in 2023, before slowing to 2.4% in 2024. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.
Lower levels of smoking and drinking by Gen Z has affected the UK public finances, analysis suggests. Bloomberg estimates the UK missed out $11.4 billion in tobacco tax and $5.7 billion in alcohol tax since 2002. Calculations by Bloomberg indicates that the UK has missed out on £9.3 billion ($11.4 billion) from tobacco taxes and £4.7 billion ($5.7 billion) in alcohol duties had revenues remained steady since 2002. This year, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects the UK government to take in £12.6 billion ($15.4 billion) in alcohol duties and £10.7 billion ($13.1 billion) in tobacco taxes. Alcohol-related harm is estimated to cost the National Health Service (NHS) in England £3.5 billion ($4.3 billion) a year.
Takeaways from the February jobs report
  + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
Minneapolis CNN —February’s jobs report had a little something for everyone. In February, the construction industry added 24,000 jobs, marking 12 consecutive months of employment growth. Friday’s report showed that “a modicum of slack crept back into the jobs market,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. However, Friday’s jobs report likely won’t spur a more dovish turn from the Fed, said Sean Snaith, an economist and director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We didn’t go from a four-alarm fire to a five-alarm fire with this data report, but the inflation flames aren’t out either,” he wrote in a note Friday.
Fed's Barkin says he could see rates at 5.5%-5.75%
  + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
PALO ALTO, California, March 3 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he could envision a scenario where the central bank pushes the U.S. benchmark policy interest rate to the 5.5%-5.75% range that some in financial markets are now betting it will. Barkin said it's "entirely possible" that inflation cools faster than he expects, which would imply a shallower rate path. "But I think it's entirely possible that it persists, which would require us to do more," he added. By this time next year, Barkin said, he does not expect the Fed to have started any rate cuts. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Leslie Adler and Alistair BellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Fed's Barkin says he doesn't see case for a rate pause now
  + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
PALO ALTO, California, March 3 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he does not understand the case for pausing interest rates now, although delivering rate increases in smaller increments means that if the Fed does end up going too far it won't have gone much too far. Rates are currently restrictive, meaning that they are slowing the economy, but the Fed still needs to "feel" its way to a level of rates that is high enough to bring inflation back down, Barkin said at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Policymakers have forecast "additional rate increases" and have been clear "we don’t anticipate rate cuts this year," he said. Inflation by the Fed's preferred year-over-year gauge was 5.4% in January, an increase from the 5.3% pace in December. The Fed's target is 2% inflation. Barkin said he is not sure that the strength in spending that bolstered inflation is sustainable. That's putting some upward pressure on inflation, he said, as workers ask for more pay.
While the inflation rate is poised to subside this year, "it will not be a straight line," Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman told CNBC.com at the time. The Federal Reserve is tasked with getting inflation under control, while trying to avoid a deep economic recession. What the latest inflation measure showsThe personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCEPI, is the central bank's preferred measure as it seeks to bring inflation down to a 2% target. Based on Friday's data, it's "almost a certainty" the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points in March, and maybe even higher, Luther said. A period of below 2% inflation would be needed to see prices subside back to where they were, Luther said.
Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty ImagesMeanwhile, fuel oil dipped 1.2% in January but was up 27.7% for the past 12 months. While high gas prices made headlines in 2022, prompting gas tax holidays in some states, those prices have subsided from last year's highs. Gas prices "did rise in January and that was mostly due to the weather," said Andrew Gross, spokesperson at AAA. Other transportation costs are in fluxNew vehicles are up 5.8% over the past 12 months ending Jan. 30, and up 0.2% for the month. However, used cars and trucks, a category that surged during record high inflation, are now down 11.6% for the past 12 months and down 1.9% for January.
"We are still on the path to lower inflation rates," House said. Economists said they still expect a recession following the new January inflation data. But the Federal Reserve lacks tools to prompt that area to cool off, he said. The new data shows slowing disinflation, he said, while the Federal Reserve will probably have to hold rates higher for longer. A 'Goldilocks scenario' could bring a soft landingThere is still hope, however, that the central bank may execute a so-called "soft landing," according to House.
China remains Germany's main trading partner for seventh year
  + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BERLIN, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Trade between Germany and China rose to a record level last year, making the Asian country Germany's most important trading partner for the seventh year in a row despite political warnings in Berlin about excessive dependence. In 2022, Germany imported goods worth 191 billion euros from China, a third more than in 2021. Exports of German goods to China increased by only 3.1% to around 107 billion euros. Overall, Germany had a trade deficit with China of around 84 billion euros. The United States is much more important for German exporters than China, Zenglein said.
While worldwide deaths from terrorism have declined in the last five years, deaths in sub-Saharan Africa have risen, making it now the global epicentre of attacks, the UNDP report said, citing an annual survey called the Global Terrorism Index. Countries from east to west Africa have seen Islamist militant groups take over large swathes of territory, displacing millions, eroding faith in democratic government and causing widespread hunger. The UNDP report found that 25% of voluntary recruits to such groups cited job opportunities as their primary reason for joining, while 22% cited wanting to join with family and friends and 17% cited religious ideas. An additional year of schooling reduced the likelihood of voluntary recruitment to extremist groups by 13%, it found. The Global Terrorism Index is produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace think-tank, which draws its data from the Terrorism Tracker database of Dragonfly, a private sector security and intelligence service.
London CNN —Germany’s economy grew slightly last year despite battling an energy crisis sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine. The bank predicts the German economy will stagnate this year, rather than decline, as it had previously forecast. Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty ImagesEither way, it’s welcome news for Europe’s biggest economy. “The German economy has been more resilient than initially feared,” Jan-Christopher Scherer, a research associate at DIW Berlin, told CNN. About 40% of German companies expect business to decline in 2023, and another 35% think it will stagnate, according to a November survey of 2,500 firms conducted by the German Economic Institute.
London CNN —Global stocks are striding higher on the first major trading day of 2023 as investors try to look beyond a gloomy outlook for the world economy, China’s worst Covid outbreak and stubbornly high inflation in Europe. ET Tuesday, extending strong gains posted Monday when Chinese and US markets were closed. In Asia, markets ended the day firmly in positive territory, recovering from early losses. Still waryTuesday’s market gains provide cheery news for investors after a rollercoaster 2022 that saw $33 trillion wiped off global equity markets. Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, warned in an interview with CBS that aired on Sunday that 2023 will be tougher on the global economy than 2022 was.
Almost half a trillion dollars, and counting, since the Ukraine war jolted it into an energy crisis nine months ago. The money set aside stands at up to 440 billion euros ($465 billion), according to the calculations, which provide the first combined tally of all of Germany's drives aimed at avoiding running out of power and securing new sources of energy. That equates to about 1.5 billion euros a day since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Energy rationing is a risk in the event of a long cold spell this winter, Germany's first in half a century without Russian gas. There's no security in sight either, with the push to build up of two alternatives to Russian fuel - liquefied natural gas (LNG) and renewables - years away from targeted levels.
She eventually learned that the balance issues and ear pain resulted from a damaged vestibular nerve, a known effect of long Covid. She found that 2 million to 4 million full-time workers are out of the labor force due to long Covid. For one, many of the hundreds of potential long Covid symptoms are invisible to others, even if disabling for the afflicted. Why the long Covid labor gap mattersJerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, mentioned Sheiner and Salwati's long Covid research in a recent speech about inflation and the labor market. That burden will continue to rise if long Covid patients don't start recovering at greater rates, she said.
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