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Punit Paranjpe | Afp | Getty ImagesIndia can achieve sustainable economic growth of up to 8% over the medium term, according to the country's central bank governor. The figures have ratcheted up pressure on the central bank to launch its own rate-cutting cycle sooner rather than later. Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), speaks during the Global Fintech Fest 2024 in Mumbai, India, on August 28, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesIt comes as major central banks have started to ease monetary policy in recent months, including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. Women (silhouetted) walk past Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo displayed at Global Fintech Fest exhibition in Mumbai.
Persons: Punit Paranjpe, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, Shaktikanta Das, Das, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Afp, Getty, Reserve Bank of India, International Monetary Fund, Nurphoto, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, The U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of India, Global Locations: Mumbai, India, Japan, Germany, U.S, China
New York CNN —It’s easy to dismiss many presidential candidates’ campaign promises as empty, because Congress would need to approve them. Alex Durante, an economist at the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning think tank, told CNN that 100% tariffs would threaten the economy. It’s possible he is floating 100% tariffs as just a threat designed to change the behavior of other countries. ‘No question it’s inflationary’The Trump campaign did not provide an explanation to CNN about how Trump would implement 100% tariffs nor what the trigger would be. He said Trump’s tariff plan, if enacted, would risk setting off a market panic like former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss did in 2022.
Persons: New York CNN —, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Trump, , you’re, ” Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, ” Obstfeld, Christine McDaniel, George W, Bush, , McDaniel, George Mason University’s, Alex Durante, ” Durante, Brian Hughes, ” Hughes, , Harris, Kamala Harris, ” Kent Smetters, Smetters, Wharton “, it’s, ” Wharton, Liz, Joe Brusuelas, ” “ I’m, Joe Biden, Biden, Brusuelas, Liz Truss, Matt Priest, Trump’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Peterson Institute for International Economics, CNN, International Monetary Fund, Trump, United States Trade Representative, Commerce Department, Tax Foundation, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, Penn Wharton Budget, Wharton, ABC, RSM, Democratic, Footwear Distributors, Retailers of America Locations: New York, Wisconsin, United States, China, Russia, , American
Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid al-Falih pushed back against skepticism over the country's economic diversification plan, as Riyadh touts "green shoring" investment opportunities to woo foreign financing. The Saudi minister on Saturday said that, eight years into manifesting Vision 2030, the kingdom is now "more committed, more determined" to the program and has already implemented or is about to complete 87% of its targets. The number of foreign investment licenses issued in Saudi Arabia nearly doubled in 2023, the IMF noted, with government data pointing to a 5.6% annual increase in net flows of foreign direct investment in the first quarter. Concerns have nevertheless lingered over the potential uncertainty and unpredictability of the kingdom's legal framework and its dispute resolution system for foreign investment. Al-Falih insisted that Saudi Arabia boasts predictability, as well as domestic political and economic stability.
Persons: Khalid, Falih, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, Mohammed bin Salman's Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: Saudi, Riyadh, Cernobbio, Italy, U.S, Saudi Arabia
Cooling global growth, continued geopolitical risks, and uncertainty around US election outcomes mean it could be a choppy ride for the next few months. But if US economic data stabilizes while global growth slows, as Bharadwaj expects, European currencies could be set for a violent snapback. "I do think that global growth right now is not holding up from our data trackers. "And in fact, we actually track global growth upgrades versus downgrades. And after a very long time, global growth downgrades are outpacing global growth upgrades, which indicates to me that even the global growth is not as rosy as markets are currently pricing it to be."
Persons: Jayati Bharadwaj, it's, Bharadwaj, you've Organizations: Service, TD Securities, Business, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve, Securities Locations: China, Europe, India
Desmond Lachman, a former IMF deputy director, says there are "plenty of reasons to worry" about the US economy in the months ahead. Another risk is the prospect of a second Trump presidency, given his proposed policies around tariffs and taxes, Lachman said. Advertisement"There are a huge number of risks," Lachman said. "The Fed could cut interest rates midmeeting but that would be because the sky was falling. But if the sky is not falling, the Fed doesn't want to give the impression that the sky is falling," Lachman said.
Persons: Desmond Lachman, Lachman —, Lachman, Trump, , France Organizations: Service, Business, Lachman, American Enterprise Institute, AEI, Trump, EU Locations: China, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran, France, Italy, Europe
Caracas CNN —It would be easy to dismiss this Sunday’s presidential election in Venezuela as a fait accompli. The opposition campaign has re-energized its bases, and the candidature of Edmundo González has attracted widespread support in Venezuela and abroad. A chance to rebuild Venezuela’s economic power“On the ballot is how long it’ll take to fix Venezuela’s economy,” said Asdrubal Oliveros, founder of Caracas firm Ecoanalitica, in his weekly podcast on July 8. Once the fifth-largest economy in Latin America, today Venezuela’s economy has shrunk to the equivalent of a medium-sized city, smaller than say, Milwaukee, according to data from the IMF. As Venezuela’s economy has crumbled, around eight million Venezuelans have already fled their country, many of them scattered across South America.
Persons: Nicolas Maduro, , , Laboratorio de Paz, Edmundo González, Asdrubal Oliveros, Andres, Maduro, Edmundo Gonzalez, Maria Corina Machado, Gabriela Oraa, Gonzalez, Consultores, Putin, Xi Jinping, who’s, , Donald Trump Organizations: Caracas CNN —, Laboratorio, IMF, Andres Bello Catholic University, Central University of Venezuela, of American, World Bank, Inter, American Development Bank, Supreme, CNN Locations: Caracas, Venezuela, Ecoanalitica, Latin America, Milwaukee, AFP, United States, Americas, South America, Venezuelan, America, China, Iran, Russia, Miami, Cuba, Maduro, of American States, Mercosur, Algiers, Brussels, Buenos Aires, Spanish, Washington, Brexit, neofascism, Europe, India, Turkey, Philippines
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewBank of America's latest Global Fund Managers survey found that shadow banking has surpassed commercial real estate as the likeliest culprit of a future credit event. In June's survey, commercial real estate held the top spot. Related storiesMeanwhile, BofA's survey indicates that fund managers are still keeping their eyes on commercial real estate, a sector that has wobbled under the weight of high interest rates. Between tighter monetary policy and a significant pullback in office demand, worry has mounted regarding whether commercial real estate entities can pay off their debt.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, BofA Organizations: Service, America's, Global Fund, Business, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, JPMorgan Locations: H2'24
London CNN —The International Monetary Fund has warned that stubborn inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer than expected, increasing fiscal and financial risks around the world. Persistently high prices for services — which include haircuts, hotels and restaurants — as well as escalating trade tensions are propping up inflation and raising the prospect that interest rates will stay high for a while yet, the IMF cautioned Tuesday in its latest World Economic Outlook. The warning highlights that the global economy is not yet in the clear when it comes to inflation, which explains the caution on the part of central banks in cutting interest rates. However, services inflation came in higher than expected. The agency blamed sticky services price inflation for “holding up progress” on reducing overall inflation.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: London CNN —, Monetary Fund, Bank of England, European Union, IMF Locations: , United States, China, India, E.T
IMF sees ‘bumps’ in path to lower inflation
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that upside risks to inflation have increased, calling into question the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said "the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path." The rise in sequential inflation in the U.S. earlier in 2024 has put it behind other major economies in the quantitative easing path, the report said. However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Tuesday that one rate cut from the Fed is most appropriate this year, highlighting still-stubborn services and wage inflation as complications to the path to lower inflation. Despite the encouraging CPI report, Gourinchas stated the uptick in inflation earlier in the year indicates that the path toward lower inflation and rate cuts "could take a little bit longer than maybe the markets are expecting."
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, CNBC's, Gourinchas Organizations: Monetary Fund, Traders, U.S . Labor Department Locations: U.S
LONDON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its 2024 growth outlook for the U.K. to 0.7% from 0.5%, providing a further boost to the country's new government. Looking ahead, the Washington, D.C.-based IMF reiterated its forecast for 1.5% U.K. growth in 2025 in the July update of its World Economic Outlook. Investment bank Goldman Sachs earlier this month nudged its 2025 forecast for the U.K. economy 0.1 percentage point higher, to 1.6%. Other economies given a 2024 growth upgrade by the IMF on Tuesday included the euro zone, which it lifted by 0.1 percentage point to 0.9%, Spain, up 0.5 percentage point to 2.4%, and China, up 0.4 percentage point to 5%. It lowered its forecast for the U.S. economy by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6%.
Persons: Taylor, Goldman Sachs, Keir Starmer, Goldman, — CNBC's Sophie Kiderlin, Vicky McKeever Organizations: Nine, Monetary Fund, D.C, Investment, Labour, European Union . Deutsche Bank, Friday, Deutsche Bank, Jefferies, Bank of England, Reuters, IMF Locations: Ruskin Park, London, England, Washington, brightening, Spain, China, U.S, Asia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUnderlying concerns are still there around services inflation, says IMF's Pierre-Olivier GourinchasPierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on disinflation, whether September's too soon to expect a rate cut, and more.
Persons: IMF's Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, September's
The IMF said in the report that emerging markets have seen a decline in the more volatile net portfolio inflows, but net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been more stable. At the same time, the report said that China saw net capital outflows over the 2022-2023 period, including net negative FDI inflows. Overall, global gross capital inflows declined to 4.4% of global GDP, or $4.2 trillion, in the 2022-2023 period, from 5.8 percent of global GDP, or $4.5 trillion, in 2017-2019. But the U.S. benefited strongly from the shifts, accounting for 41% of global gross inflows during the 2022-2023 period, nearly double its 23% share in 2017-2019. The U.S. share of global gross outflows also increased, to 21% from 14% during the same periods.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Nicolas Dujovne, Yuri Gripas, David Lawder, Franklin Paul, Alistair Bell Organizations: Monetary Fund, Argentine, REUTERS, China, IMF, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, WASHINGTON, China, U.S
In a report last week, it called out high debt, banking vulnerabilities, and trade barriers. These are important downside risks that could impact the global economy, it said. AdvertisementChronic deficits are leading toward a debt-to-GDP ratio of 140% by 2032, IMF said, a situation that needs to be addressed urgently. Advertisement"These create systemic risks to the U.S. and global economy that are entirely avoidable. Meanwhile, Washington's increasingly protectionist approach to trade is a risk to US and global growth, the IMF said.
Persons: , Washington's, Biden, Trump Organizations: Monetary Fund, Service, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Republicans, Democrats, Silicon Valley Bank, Republican Locations: Washington, Silicon, Basel, China, Beijing, U.S
CNN —Police in Kenya fired tear gas on protesters as a fresh wave of demonstrations swept the country, despite President William Ruto’s U-turn on controversial tax plans. In a surprise move on Wednesday, Ruto said he would not sign the finance bill, saying he had been “listening keenly” to the Kenyan people. “It’s more than about the finance bill now,” Maria, a Kenyan protestor from Nairobi told CNN. Some have called on President Ruto to resign for failing to withdraw the unpopular bill much earlier to save the lives lost. Others are seeking justice for the deceased protesters and demanding the recall of lawmakers who voted in support of the finance bill.
Persons: William Ruto’s U, , Ruto, ” Maria, Daniel Irungu, , Mwangi, Moody’s, Herman Manyora, ” Manyora, ” Ruto, Manyora Organizations: CNN — Police, House, Security, State House, Kenyan, CNN, Civic, Law Society of Kenya, Monetary Fund, International, University of Nairobi Locations: Kenya, Nairobi, East, Kenya’s
The Federal Reserve should wait to cut interest rates until "at least" the end of the year, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund. The U.S. is the only G20 economy to see growth above pre-pandemic levels, and "robust" growth indicates ongoing upside risks to inflation, the 190-country agency said. "We do recognize important upside risks," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a press briefing on Thursday. "Given those risks, we agree that the Fed should keep policy rates at current levels until at least late 2024." The Fed's current fed funds rate has stood within the range of 5.25% to 5.50% since July 2023.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva Organizations: International Monetary Fund, The, IMF Locations: The U.S, U.S
Kenya president backs down on tax rises after deadly protests
  + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Kenya's president on Wednesday withdrew planned tax rises, bowing to pressure from protesters who had stormed parliament, launched demonstrations across the country and threatened more action this week. "Listening keenly to the people of Kenya who have said loudly that they want nothing to do with this finance bill 2024, I concede. And therefore, I will not sign the 2024 finance bill, and it shall subsequently be withdrawn," he said in a televised address. Thousands took to the streets of Nairobi and several other cities during two days of protests last week as an online movement gathered momentum. Protests in Kenya have usually been called by political leaders who can be amenable to negotiated settlements.
Persons: William Ruto, Ruto, Ruto's, Lawmakers Organizations: Wednesday, Kenyan, IMF, The Nation, Kenya Medical, Medical, Protesters, State, World Bank, International Monetary Fund Locations: Kenya, Eldoret, Nairobi
The Kingdom's Vision 2030 plans feature several massive construction projects, including the futuristic megacity Neom and an entertainment project on the outskirts of Riyadh. Amine Mati, an assistant director at the IMF and its mission chief for Saudi Arabia, told The FT that Saudi authorities were "recalibrating" to assess whether some spending should be delayed. In public, Saudi has largely been keen to insist that the megaprojects, especially Neom, are on track. Experts previously told BI that Saudi Arabia was struggling to attract the foreign investment needed for the development. Representatives for Neom did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider, made outside normal working hours.
Persons: , Mohammed Al, Jadaan, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Neom Organizations: Service, Business, BBC, Saudi, IMF, FT, Public Investment Fund, CNBC Locations: Saudi Arabia, Riyadh
imf-chief-europe-ideas-supermarket-for-us-correction
  + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
A previous version of this article misstated the month that the IMF said a 10% reduction would boost European output by up to 7 percentage points.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIMF chief says Europe looks like 'an ideas supermarket' for the U.S. Speaking to CNBC's Karen Tso, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Europe's economic performance was strengthening and inflation was clearly on a downward trajectory.
Persons: Karen Tso, Kristalina Georgieva Organizations: IMF Locations: Europe
Kristalina Georgieva, chief executive officer of the World Bank Group, arrives to a briefing at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, April 19, 2024. Speaking to CNBC's Karen Tso, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Europe's economic performance was strengthening and inflation was clearly on a downward trajectory. One, to achieve the full potential of the single market. Right now, Europe looks like an ideas supermarket for the United States," Georgieva said. [It is] 27 countries not yet integrated in a single market."
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Karen Tso, Georgieva Organizations: World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund, Bank, IMF, European Central Bank Locations: Washington , DC, Europe, United States
Along with the Māori of New Zealand and groups from the Cook Islands, Indigenous leaders from Tahiti, Tonga, Hawaii, and Easter Island signed the He Whakaputanga Moana treaty. In the coming months, she plans to engage with various countries throughout the Pacific to discuss whale personhood legislation. The Cook Islands office said it had “yet to receive a formal submission” from indigenous leaders on the declaration’s implementation. Māori King Tūheitia Pōtatau and Tou Travel Ariki, Cook Islands President of the House of Ariki, at the signing of the He Whakaputanga Moana declaration in Rarotonga, Cook Islands. This came after a global ban on commercial whaling was instituted by the International Whaling Commission in 1986.
Persons: Mere, , Tūheitia Pōtatau, Josh Baker, ” March’s, , Takoko, Britain’s King Charles III, Moana, Māori, Michelle Bender, ” Bender, Carlos Duarte, Ralph Chami, Chami, Miguel Medina, ” Chami, Duarte, Emily Charry Tissier, Charry Tissier, ” Duarte Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Easter, Conservation, Fund, Nature, Conservation International Aotearoa, Ocean Initiative, New Zealand, Nations, New, Commonwealth, CNN, RNZ, New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Trade, ’ Office, International Whaling Commission, Ocean, King Abdullah University of Science, Technology, Bahia, Natural, Getty, , International Monetary Fund, Initiative, United Nations Locations: Hong Kong, Rangitukia, New Zealand’s, Cook, New Zealand, Cook Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Hawaii, Moana, Rarotonga, Atlantic, New, Te Whānau, Pacific, Samoa, Whanganui, , Zealand, , New Zealand, Wellington, Seattle, Japan, Washington ,, Bahia Malaga, Colombia, AFP
India has been dubbed the "perfect" emerging market to invest in, but it can be tricky for those outside the country to gain access. India's stock market has been making headlines this year, and for good reason. "India remains one of the best-performing equity markets this year, underpinned by the world's fastest-growing major economy and a resilient macro backdrop," said James Thom, senior investment director Asian equities at Abrdn, in a note to clients. Some of the top ETFs in North America include the Columbia India Consumer ETF , the First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF and the BMO MSCI India ESG Leaders Index ETF . In Europe, the list includes the iShares MSCI India UCITS ETF , which provides exposure to around 85% of the stock market, and the Xtrackers MSCI India Swap UCITS ETF Capitalisation 1C .
Persons: Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Narendra Modi's, Kevin T, Carter, Goldman Sachs, James Thom, aren't, GDRs, Arjun Jayaraman, there's, Jayaraman, Abrdn's Thom, Surendra Goyal, Thom, EMQQ Global's Carter, Modi's, it's, Jonathan Pines, — CNBC's Ganesh Rao, Tuul, Bruno Morandi Organizations: CNBC Pro, IMF, Bharatiya Janata Party, EMQQ, CNBC, Wealthmills Securities, Global, Causeway, Mutual, Columbia India Consumer ETF, First Trust India, BMO, India, Nasdaq, Investors, Nokia, Bank of America, Citi, Edge, Reliance Industries, U.S ., Bank of India, Network18, Bank, Getty Locations: India, China, North America, Europe, Singapore, U.S, Indian, Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, Mumbai
Read previewThe US dollar is in a state of "stealth erosion," the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, wrote in a report on Tuesday. This effect masked the shift of central banks and governments out of dollar reserves. Instead, the shares of "non-traditional reserve currencies" have risen, according to the IMF. These include the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Chinese renminbi, South Korean won, Singaporean dollar, and Nordic currencies. AdvertisementThe dollar's decline in FX reserves doesn't appear to be about sanctionsThe IMF's report comes amid ongoing discussions about de-dollarization.
Persons: Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Business, US Federal Reserve, IMF, Canadian, South Korean, greenback Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen while visiting the Lakhta Center on June 5, 2024, in Saint Petersburg, Russia. Vladimir Putin visited a newly built Lakhta Center, a skyscraper of Gazprom, prior to his meetings at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum SPIEF 2024. Contributor | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesRussia's annual economic forum in St. Petersburg used to be known as the country's "Davos" in a nod to the World Economic Forum that's held in Switzerland every year. A view of the stand of the Russian private bank Alfa-Bank during the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia on June 05, 2024. Guests from foreign countries seen during the first day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2024.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, SPIEF, Max Hess, Peter Szijjarto, There's, Vladimir Putin's, Yuri Ushakov, Putin, anders Pettersson Organizations: Lakhta Center, Saint Petersburg, Economic, Getty, St ., Economic Forum, Foreign Policy Research Institute, CNBC, Hungarian Foreign, Alfa, Bank, Anadolu, West, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Brics Locations: Saint Petersburg, Russia, Gazprom, St . Petersburg, Davos, Switzerland, Ukraine, Asia, Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe, Slovakia, Hungary, Hungarian, St, Moscow, Russian, Germany, France, India, China, Johannesburg, South Africa
Jeremy Renner has revealed why he left the "Mission: Impossible" franchise. Renner declined to return after learning his character would be killed off, he told the "Happy Sad Confused" podcast. After playing IMF agent William Brandt in 2011's "Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol" and 2015's "Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation," Renner was planning to return to the franchise for 2018's "Mission: Impossible — Fallout." You're not going to drag me over there and just kill my character,' like get out of here," Renner said on the "Happy Sad Confused" podcast. "If you're going to do this and you're going to use my character, you're going to do it right," he continued.
Persons: Jeremy Renner, Renner, , William Brandt Organizations: Service, Business
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