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July 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Wednesday, with benchmark Brent futures breaching $80 a barrel for the first time since May, after U.S. inflation data spurred hopes the Federal Reserve may have fewer interest rate hikes in store for the world's biggest economy. U.S. data showed consumer prices rose modestly in June and registered their smallest annual increase in more than two years. Markets expect one more interest rate rise, but oil traders hope that may be it. Brent futures settled up 71 cents, or 0.9%, to $80.11 a barrel. Forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) point to the market tightening into 2024.

Persons: Naeem Aslam, Brent, Tamas Varga, Phil Flynn, Natalie Grover, Trixie Yap, Sonali Paul, Barbara Lewis, Emelia, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Zaye, . West Texas, U.S . Energy Information Administration, International Energy Agency, IEA, Saudi, U.S . Energy, Administration, Price Futures, Thomson Locations: China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, London

☆ Oil near flat as tighter supplies offset U.S. rate hike risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices were near flat on Thursday as the market weighed tighter U.S. crude supplies with the higher likelihood of a U.S. interest rate hike that could dent energy demand. U.S. interest rate futures on Thursday increased the probability of another U.S. rate rise after news private payrolls surged last month. "While the inventories are supportive for oil prices today, the oil market is being dominated by fears of further rate increases," said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. The total cuts now stand at more than five million barrels per day (bpd), equating to 5% of global oil output. Rather than pressuring oil producers to curb supply, which heads of global energy companies say serves only to increase prices, governments should shift the focus to limiting oil demand to reduce emissions, they said.

Persons: payrolls, Phil Flynn, Andrew Lipow Organizations: Brent, . West Texas Intermediate, Federal Reserve, Price Futures, Energy Information Administration, Lipow Oil Associates, Reuters, OPEC Locations: Red, Ras Behar, Egypt, U.S, Europe, China, Houston, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Vienna

☆ Breakingviews: El Nino will brew up potent new economic storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

It looks likely that the El Nino weather phenomenon has returned, according to both the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Reuters GraphicsBy one reckoning, a single El Nino event might seem manageable. The direct impact of El Nino- and La Nina-affected weather on sowing, growing and harvesting is not the only economic consideration. On June 8 the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center issued an advisory that El Nino conditions “are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter”. The highest temperature reached in any past El Nino was 2.6 degrees Celsius above average in 2016.

Persons: El, Nina, Gabrielle, It’s, there’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Katrina Hamlin, Thomas Shum Organizations: MELBOURNE, Reuters, El, U.S . National Oceanographic, Atmospheric Administration, Australian, of Meteorology, International Monetary Fund, University of Dartmouth, El Nino, Nina, Rabobank, Barclays, World Meteorological Organisation, Center, Thomson Locations: India, Thailand, Vietnam, El Nino, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Europe, China, Southeast Asia, United States, Oceania, Australia, Western Australia, Delhi, Ukraine

☆ El Nino will brew up potent new economic storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 3% on Wednesday as the second straight weekly draw from U.S. crude stockpiles was bigger than expected, offsetting worries that further interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce global oil demand. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.86, or 2.8%, to settle at $69.56, narrowing Brent's premium over WTI to its lowest since June 9. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude inventories dropped by 9.6 million barrels in the week ended June 23, far exceeding the 1.8-million barrel draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and also much bigger than the 2.8 million barrel draw a year earlier. This report could be a bottom (for oil prices)," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Investors remained cautious that interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

Persons: Brent, Phil Flynn, Jerome Powell, Flynn, Powell, Christine Lagarde, Gelber, Shariq Khan, Alex Lawler, Mohi Narayan, Emma Rumney, Mark Potter, David Gregorio, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: YORK, . West Texas, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Price Futures Group, Investors, . Federal, European Central Bank, Associates, Organization of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: WTI, Russia, Saudi, China, Bengaluru, London, New Delhi

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.63, or 2.45%, to $69.33. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude inventories dropped by 9.6 million barrels in the week ended June 23, far exceeding the 1.8-million barrel draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and also much bigger than the 2.8 million barrel draw a year earlier. This report could be a bottom (for oil prices)," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Investors remained cautious that interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates said that decline in backwardation suggested "diminishing worries over potential supply shortages."

Persons: Brent, Phil Flynn, Jerome Powell, Flynn, Powell, Christine Lagarde, Gelber, backwardation, Shariq Khan, Alex Lawler, Mohi Narayan, Emma Rumney, Mark Potter, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, . West Texas, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Price Futures Group, Investors, . Federal, European Central Bank, Associates, Organization of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: WTI, Russia, OPEC, Saudi, China, Bengaluru, London, New Delhi

NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose about 2% on Wednesday as a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles offset worries that further interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce global oil demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude inventories dropped by 9.6 million barrels in the week ended June 23, putting stockpiles down for a second week in a row. That was much bigger than the 1.8 million barrel draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 2.8 million barrels in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decrease of 7.8 million barrels. This report could be a bottom (for oil prices)," Flynn said. Oil prices rose despite worries about interest rate hikes that could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

Persons: Brent, Phil Flynn, Flynn, Christine Lagarde, Shariq Khan, Alex Lawler, Mohi Narayan, Emma Rumney, Mark Potter Organizations: YORK, U.S, West Texas, U.S . Energy Information Administration, American Petroleum Institute, Price Futures, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru, London, New Delhi

Oanda analyst Craig Erlam said prices were mainly at the mercy of "the ever-changing expectations for interest rates". European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday that stubbornly high inflation will require the bank to avoid declaring an end to rate hikes. Higher interest rates can weigh on economic activity and oil demand. But the upbeat data suggested the Federal Reserve will likely have to continue raising interest rates to slow demand in the overall economy. The U.S. central bank, which has raised its policy rate by 500 basis points since March 2022, signaled this month that two additional rate hikes were warranted this year.

Persons: Brent, Craig Erlam, Christine Lagarde, Phil Flynn, Wagner, PVM's Tamas Varga, Saudi Arabia's, Li Qiang, Stephanie Kelly, Shadia Nasralla, Trixie Yap, Jan Harvey, David Goodman, Ed Osmond, Deepa Babington, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, European Central Bank, Price Futures, Reserve, American Petroleum Institute, Reuters, Saudi, Thomson Locations: contango, Europe, United States, U.S, Russia, China

NEW YORK, June 21 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub have risen to their highest in two years, as outages at Midwestern refiners crimp demand and higher flows from Canada add to supply. Stockpiles at Cushing, the delivery point for U.S. crude oil futures, have climbed for eight consecutive weeks after falling earlier this year. Overseas demand for U.S. crude and an end to refinery outages should reverse the build, said analysts. "We're going to be sending more (oil exported) abroad," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Canadian crude may have been sent toward Cushing as feedstock for a restart of the Toledo refinery, which had a fire last year, said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at Kpler.

Persons: Phil Flynn, Hillary Stevenson, Cushing, Stevenson, Enbridge, Flanagan, John Coleman, Wood Mackenzie, Matt Smith, Stephanie Kelly, Nia Williams, Arathy, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: YORK, Cushing, Price Futures, Energy, IIR Energy, BP, Phillips, North, Americas, Kpler, Thomson Locations: Oklahoma, Canada, Cushing, U.S, Toledo, Ohio, Texas, Wood

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.16 to $71.78. Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said it was "realistic" to reach oil prices of around $80 per barrel, Russian state news agencies reported. Capping oil price gains was the prospect of rising interest rates, which could slow economic growth. The Bank of England is set to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point next week. Investors have been closely watching interest rates and commentary from Fed members.

Persons: Brent, Nikolai Shulginov, Shulginov, Baker Hughes, Phil Flynn, Stephanie Kelly, Alex Lawler, Sudarshan, David Goodman, Louise Heavens, David Evans, David Gregorio, Nick Macfie Organizations: bbl Bank of England, . West Texas, Oil, Kuwait Petroleum, Organization of, Petroleum, Russian Energy, Bank of England, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal, Price Futures, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Thomson Locations: Russia, U.S, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russian, Iran

☆ Oil prices rise 3% after China rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices climbed 3% on Tuesday, recovering from steep losses the previous session, after China's central bank lowered a short-term lending rate for the first time in 10 months. The rate cut, aimed at adding momentum to a hesitant post-pandemic recovery in the world's second-largest economy and biggest crude importer, is likely increase oil demand. The Fed's rate hikes have strengthened the dollar , making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and weighing on oil prices, so a rate hike pause could be bullish. Worries about demand have unraveled the temporary boost in oil prices from Saudi Arabia's pledge announced early this month to cut more production in July. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its forecast for 2023 global oil demand growth steady for a fourth month on Tuesday, slightly increasing expectations of Chinese demand growth.

Persons: Phil Flynn, Giovanni Staunovo, Saudi Arabia's Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, Price Futures, European Central Bank, of Petroleum Exporting, International Energy Agency, Reuters Locations: U.S, Saudi

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 43 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on May 23. In the most recent week, funds bought crude (+26 million barrels), middle distillates such as U.S. diesel and European gas oil (+6 million) and light distillates such as gasoline (+11 million). Positions are much more bearish on crude (275 million barrels net long, 8th percentile) and middle distillates (3 million barrels net short, 16th percentile). U.S. NATURAL GASInvestors became slightly more bullish towards U.S. gas prices as the downturn in drilling activity was expected eventually to erode still-high inventories. The net position increased to 241 billion cubic feet net long (37th percentile for all weeks since 2010) up from 1,061 billion cubic feet net short (7th percentile) at the end of January 2023.

☆ Oil slides 4% on worries about U.S. debt ceiling, OPEC+ talks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Storage tanks and oil processing facilities operate at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 1, 2018. Oil prices fell by more than 4% on Tuesday on concerns about whether U.S. Congress will pass the U.S. debt ceiling pact and as mixed messages from major producers clouded the supply outlook ahead of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend. Some hard-right Republican lawmakers said they might oppose a deal to raise the debt ceiling in the United States, the world's biggest oil user. Traders were uncertain about whether the group will increase output cuts as a slump in prices weighs on the market. In April, Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+ announced further oil output cuts of around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), bringing the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Biden, McCarthy, Phil Flynn, Abdulaziz bin Salman, Alexander Novak Organizations: U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Democratic, Republican, Congress, Treasury Department, Price Futures, of, Petroleum, Traders, Saudi Arabian Energy, OPEC Locations: Saudi, Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, Friday's, U.S, United States, Russia, OPEC

☆ Oil prices gain 1% on falling U.S. stockpiles, Saudi warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose over 1% on Wednesday, after a large unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and a warning from the Saudi energy minister that raised the prospect of further OPEC+ production cuts. U.S. crude inventories posted a massive surprise drawdown, falling by 12.5 million barrels last week to 455.2 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. U.S. gasoline stocks dropped by 2.1 million barrels in the week to 216.3 million barrels, the EIA said, while distillate stockpiles fell by 600,000 barrels in the week to 105.7 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's energy minister said short-sellers - those betting that prices will fall - should "watch out" for pain. "Oil prices are trading higher ... buoyed by the latest short-seller warning from Saudi Arabia," said OANDA senior market analyst Craig Erlam.

Persons: Phil Flynn, Craig Erlam, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Price, Britain's Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Energy Information Administration, Analysts, EIA, Memorial, Price Futures, Organization of Petroleum, Democratic, Republican Locations: Saudi, U.S, Russia, OPEC, Saudi Arabia

Net sales of crude oil (-18 million barrels) were offset by purchases of refined fuels (+18 million barrels), according to position records published by ICE Futures and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Funds held a net position of 249 million barrels in crude (5th percentile for all weeks since 2013) with long positions outnumbering shorts by a ratio of 2.35:1 (13th percentile). In refined fuels, however, funds held a net position of 36 million barrels (20th percentile) with longs outnumbering shorts by 1.40:1 (20th percentile). Funds held a position of 45 million barrels in gasoline (38th percentile) on May 16, with longs outnumbering shorts by 4.20:1 (50th percentile). U.S. NATURAL GASInvestors became slightly more bullish about the outlook for U.S. gas prices following evidence that low prices are starting to curtail drilling activity, which will gradually eliminate surplus production.

SPR stocks drew for a seventh week in a row, falling by 2.4 million last week to 359.59 million barrels, their lowest since September 1983, due to last year's congressionally mandated release. Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. crude futures (USOICC=ECI) rose by 1.5 million barrels last week, the EIA said. Brent and U.S. crude futures were trading just over 0.2% higher at $75.11 per barrel and $71.05 per barrel, respectively, by 10:39 a.m. Gasoline stocks (USOILG=ECI) fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week to 218.3 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' forecasts for a 1.1 million-barrel drop. U.S. crude oil imports rose 24% to 6.9 million barrels, while exports also climbed nearly 50% to 4.3 millions barrels.

However, an 18.9% year-on-year rise in China's oil refinery throughput in April to the second-highest level on record helped to keep a floor under crude prices. The IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 200,000 bpd to a record 102 million bpd. It said China's recovery after the lifting of COVID-19 curbs had surpassed expectations, with demand reaching a record 16 million bpd in March. In another bullish development, the U.S. Department of Energy on Monday said it would buy 3 million barrels of crude oil for delivery in August in a move to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Meanwhile, U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by about 1.3 million barrels last week, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 17 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on May 9. The combined position was cut to just 285 million barrels (6th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 534 million barrels (38th percentile) on April 18. Funds sold the equivalent of 37 billion cubic feet over the seven days to May 9, taking total sales over the most recent three weeks to 206 billion cubic feet. The combined position slipped to 120 billion cubic feet net short (28th percentile for all weeks since 2010) down from 87 billion cubic feet net long (35th percentile) on April 18. The surplus was basically unchanged from +256 billion cubic feet (+15% or +0.60 standard deviations) eight weeks earlier on March 5.

Summary Oil rallies after three straight weekly declinesGoldman Sachs says demand fears 'overblown'US inflation data and OPEC report in focus this weekSINGAPORE, May 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose over 2% on Monday as U.S. recession fears eased and some traders saw crude's three-week slide on demand worries as overdone. Brent crude was up $1.57, or 2.1%, at $76.87 a barrel by 11:19 a.m. EDT (1519 GMT). Brent had finished last week with a decline of about 5.3% while U.S. crude plunged by 7.1% even after Friday's rebound. "The market is less worried about a banking crisis that could lead to a recession and hurt demand," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. OPEC's latest monthly oil market report is due on Thursday, providing an updated reading on the demand and supply outlook.

☆ Oil climbs more than 2% as recession fears begin to fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose over 2% on Monday as U.S. recession fears eased and some traders saw crude's three-week slide on demand worries as overdone. Brent had finished last week with a decline of about 5.3% while U.S. crude plunged by 7.1% even after Friday's rebound. Banking concerns have plagued the market recently after the collapse of three major regional banks. "The market is less worried about a banking crisis that could lead to a recession and hurt demand," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. OPEC's latest monthly oil market report is due on Thursday, providing an updated reading on the demand and supply outlook.

WTI's session low was $67.95 a barrel, lowest since March 24. On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, pressuring oil prices as traders worried that slower economic growth could hit energy demand. "The Fed going into a pause mode should be very supportive for the price of oil," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Also pressuring oil prices, government data showed U.S. gasoline inventories (USOILG=ECI) unexpectedly rose by 1.7 million barrels last week. In China, data over the weekend showed April manufacturing activity fell unexpectedly in the world's largest energy consumer and top buyer of crude oil.

On its last day as the front-month, Brent futures for June delivery rose $1.13, or 1.4%, to $79.50 a barrel by 1:54 p.m. EDT (1754 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.92, or 2.6%, to $76.68. "But, today there were headlines showing there may be a solution to the First Republic problem, and there was data pointing to a rise in oil demand and a decline in output," Flynn said. Fuel demand rose to nearly 20 million bpd, its highest since November, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Crude prices have been lower in recent weeks and months due to uncertainty over further interest rate hikes that could reduce demand for oil.

TOKYO, April 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices gained about 2% on Friday after U.S. data showed crude output was declining while fuel demand was growing. Brent crude futures rose $1.16, or 1.5%, to $79.53 a barrel by 12:24 p.m. EDT (1624 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.99, or 2.7%, to $76.75. "But, today there were headlines showing there may be a solution to First Republic's problems and data pointing to a rise in oil demand and a decline in output," Flynn said. In the same report, the EIA said U.S. product supplied of crude and petroleum products - a proxy for oil demand - rose to nearly 20 million bpd and finished motor gasoline rose to 8.7 million bpd in February, the highest for both since November 2022. Oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp(XOM.N), meanwhile, are riding a wave of strong demand and have held the line on cost-cutting implemented when fuel demand collapsed during COVID-19 lockdowns.

Oil prices dropped almost 4% on Wednesday as jitters about a U.S. economic downturn overshadowed a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. crude inventories. The OPEC+ group of leading oil producers does not see the need for further oil output cuts but is always able to adjust its policy, Novak said. Data on Thursday showed U.S. economic growth slowed by more than expected in the first quarter, although jobless claims fell in the week ending April 22. Oil prices were also pressured as weak risk sentiment spread from the banking sector after First Republic Bank's continued slump. Analysts see weak refinery margins as a major contributor to the recent oil price decline, with oil broker PVM's Tamas Varga pointing to heating oil and gasoil as "the main possible culprit for the outsized weakness".

☆ Oil dips 2% on economic woes and stronger dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An oil pumpjack pulls oil from the Permian Basin oil field on March 14, 2022 in Odessa, Texas. Oil dropped 2% on Tuesday after two sessions of gains as deepening concerns of an economic slowdown and a stronger dollar outweighed hopes of higher Chinese demand and lower U.S. crude stocks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $1.69, or 2.2%, to settle at $77.07. A stronger dollar pressures oil demand by making the commodity more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Gold prices also were flat as the dollar strengthened, while U.S. stocks fell as weak earnings fanned economic fears.

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