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If housing cost pressures start to ease more in the coming months, as many economists expect, then the Federal Reserve is almost certainly done. Headline annual consumer price inflation rose a little less than expected last month to 3.2%, and annual core inflation cooled slightly to 4.7%, as forecast. Reuters ImageReuters ImageShelter inflation is running at a 7.7% annual rate and has been far stickier than policymakers would have liked. But Parsons reckons lag effects will soon be bringing shelter inflation down more quickly. Reuters ImageReuters ImageReuters Image(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Jay Parsons, Parsons, Jerome Powell's, Phil Suttle, Julia Coronado, Andreas Steno Larsen, Powell, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Traders, Reuters, CPI, Suttle, Steno Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, ORLANDO, Florida, materializing
Shares, dollar gains after moderate US CPI data
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The consumer price index (CPI) gained 0.2% last month, the Labor Department said, lifting the annualized rate to 3.2% from 3% in June. The pace of core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 4.7% in July from 4.8% the prior month. But investors remained cautious as another CPI report and jobs data await Fed policymakers before their next meeting in September. MSCI's gauge of stock performance across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.38%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.79%. Gold prices ticked up after the U.S. inflation data on speculation the Fed is at the end of its rate hike cycle.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Russell Price, Price, Brad Bechtel, Brad Conger, Callaghan, Brent, Herbert Lash, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Edwina Gibbs, Sam Holmes, Susan Fenton, Alexandra Hudson, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Labor Department, Reuters, Fed, Ameriprise, FX, Jefferies, Co, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Troy , Michigan, Conshohocken , Pennsylvania, CHINA, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London
"We're going to see our first rise in headline inflation after 12 consecutive months of falling prices," said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at eToro. The pan-European benchmark STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.5%, supported by gains in the luxury sector (.STXLUXP) after China lifted a ban on group tours in the United States and other key markets. In currency markets, the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, eased 0.4%. "We've got $1 trillion coming down the pipe over the next three months," eToro's Laidler said. "Any sign that markets are absorbing that well, which we got the first signs of yesterday, will be very well taken."
Persons: Ben Laidler, Laidler, Germany's DAX, Rodrigo Catril, We've, eToro's Laidler, Bond, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Edwina Gibbs, Sam Holmes, Susan Fenton, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Reuters, CAC, FTSE, Wall, National Australia Bank, U.S, Treasury, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Silicon, China, United States, Europe's, Europe, CHINA, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Beijing, Saudi Arabia, Russia
REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonSINGAPORE, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Asian stocks lost ground on Thursday, still hurting from China's slip into deflation, with investors particularly cautious ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation report that will likely influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The announcement of a U.S. ban on investments in sensitive technologies in the world's second-largest economy also weighed on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.33% and it looked set to log a second straight week of losses. China is the first G20 economy to report a year-on-year decline in consumer prices since Japan's last negative headline CPI reading in August 2021. Investors have also been unwilling to place major bets this week ahead of a U.S. inflation report due later on Thursday.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Hong, HSI, Rodrigo Catril, Joe Biden, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: Yen, REUTERS, Hoon, Federal, Japan's Nikkei, National Australia Bank, Wednesday, Saxo Markets, U.S, CPI, Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Hoon SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Shanghai, China, Beijing, Saudi, Russian
Traders will be closely watching the U.S. consumer price index reading later for July on Thursday for indications on the Fed's future rate trajectory. Veteran economist Jim O'Neill says central banks will need to keep interest rates up around 5% across major economies for longer than the market expects, even as inflation subsides. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy, has remained sticky and is expected to come in at 4.8% year-on-year in July. "I don't quite get this view that rates have to automatically start coming back down again in order to have a permanently more balanced world, in my view, economically. O'Neill also suggested the U.S. is "in a decent position to avoid a recession," noting that inflation expectations have remained fairly stable.
Persons: Dow, Jim O'Neill, O'Neill, CNBC's, we've Organizations: Dow Jones, Traders, U.S . Federal, Chatham House, Goldman, Asset Management Locations: U.S, Europe
The market has its mind made up: July's tame inflation reading means no more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The "patience" reference goes to whether policymakers will be satisfied that inflation will come back to normal without any further rate increases, or if additional tightening is necessary. Following Thursday's release of the consumer price index , which showed a 12-month inflation rate of 3.2%, markets upped their bets that the Fed is staying put. The chance of any additional rate increases also declined, dropping to 27.3% for November and 24.1% for December, as of about 1:30 p.m. Thus, there was some caution from the CPI internals, and a stock market rally cooled Thursday afternoon as Wall Street digested the report.
Persons: Quincy Krosby, Bill Adams, Rick Rieder, Tom Lee, Bradley Saunders Organizations: Federal, LPL, of Labor Statistics, Fed, Comerica Bank, Market Committee, Capital Economics Locations: BlackRock
In Asia, the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged 0.2% higher, following a 1.2% tumble a day earlier. Producer prices fell for a 10th consecutive month. "It is not likely to see China entering a full deflation path as core CPI is still resilient and driven by services." "Having said that, if we do not see further improvement in consumer sentiment, it is possible to see growing deflation risks in China." Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $86.00 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell 0.2% to $82.73.
Persons: Issei Kato, Gary Ng, HSI, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Dow, Stella Qiu, Ellen Zhang, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, PPI, Asia Pacific, Reuters, Wall, U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, SYDNEY, Italy, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Brazil, Beijing
Reaction to China inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Below are comments from analysts on the inflation data:XING ZHAOPENG, SENIOR CHINA STRATEGIST, ANZ, SHANGHAI"Both CPI and PPI in year-on-year terms fell into negative territory and confirmed economic deflation. "With destocking and credit expansion, we expect PPI and CPI will rebound from the bottom in the fourth quarter. The CPI deflation may put more pressure on the government to consider additional fiscal stimulus to mitigate the challenge." XIA CHUN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, YINTECH INVESTMENT HOLDINGS, HONG KONG"The lower inflation data reflects weak demand on the mainland, which is biggest challenge facing China's economy. It also shows China's slower-than-expected economic rebound is not strong enough to offer the weaker global demand and lift commodity prices."
Persons: XING ZHAOPENG, CHUAN, FRANCES CHEUNG, Rather, ZHIWEI ZHANG, MARCO SUN, XIA CHUN, GARY NG, Liangping Gao, Ellen Zhang, Winni Zhou, Samuel Shen, Li Gu, Sam Holmes Organizations: ANZ, CPI, PPI, OCBC, SHANGHAI, MUFG BANK, ASIA PACIFIC, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, CHINA, SHANGHAI, China, SINGAPORE, HONG KONG, Japan, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong
Customers select tomatoes at a stall inside a morning market in Beijing, China August 9, 2023. The consumer price index (CPI) dropped 0.3% year-on-year in July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday, compared with the median estimate for a 0.4% decrease in a Reuters poll. The producer price index (PPI) declined for a 10th consecutive month, down 4.4% and faster than the forecast 4.1% fall. Asian shares were on the defensive on Wednesday as the Chinese price data confirmed its economic recovery was losing steam. Beijing has set a consumer inflation target of around 3% this year, which would be up from 2% recorded in 2022, and for now, authorities are downplaying concerns about deflation.
Persons: Wang, Japan’s “, , Gary Ng, Liu Guoqiang, Xia Chun, Tommy Wu, Wu Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, , Asia Pacific, Natixis, Commerzbank Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Asia, Brazil, Japan, Hong Kong
The S & P 500 could decline by 10% by the end of the year to correct for a recent rise in valuation multiples, according to hedge fund manager Dan Niles. @CL.1 YTD line How to play it Niles, whose fund holds a concentrated portfolio of between 20-40 stocks, also revealed that he was short Apple and long Amazon . According to the hedge fund manager, Apple's valuation at 30x P/E has been made unsustainable after the iPhone-maker reported three consecutive quarters of declining revenues and net profits. That's terrific if you own it, but that's not a game I want to play counting on multiple expansion offsetting earnings going down," Niles added. And that's with the backdrop where I'm concerned about this [multiple expansion]," Niles added.
Persons: Dan Niles, CNBC's, Niles, that's Organizations: Federal, The Labor Department, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Apple, Meta Locations: Niles, United States, that's
The dollar edged up on Monday after a mixed U.S. jobs report on Friday sent the U.S. currency to a one-week low, with market focus turning to inflation data from the world's two largest economies due this week. U.S. inflation data is due on Thursday, where expectations are for core inflation to have risen 4.7% on an annual basis in July. Against the dollar, the euro fell 0.4% to $1.0966, marching towards a one-month low. The Chinese yuan hovered near a two-week low, with its offshore counterpart last 0.2% lower at 7.2034 per dollar. The yen fell 0.4% to 142.28 per dollar after hitting a one-week high of 141.52 per dollar in Asia trade.
Persons: Chris Weston, Weston, Jane Foley Organizations: U.S, ECB, European Central Bank, Rabobank, Bank, Japan, Bank of England, bps Locations: U.S, Germany, China, Asia
Dollar tentative as US inflation data looms
  + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File PhotoSINGAPORE, Aug 7 (Reuters) - The dollar was on the back foot on Monday after a mixed U.S. jobs report provided little directional conviction and as market focus turned to inflation data from the world's two largest economies due this week. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in July, data on Friday showed, but it recorded solid wage gains and a decline in the unemployment rate. "There was a narrative in there for everyone, depending on your bias," said Pepperstone's Head of Research Chris Weston of the jobs report. U.S. inflation data is due on Thursday, where expectations are for core inflation to have risen 4.7% on an annual basis in July. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar edged 0.1% higher to $0.6577, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.18% to $0.6109.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Chris Weston, Weston, Rae Wee, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Sterling, New Zealand, Bank, Japan, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, SINGAPORE, U.S, Friday's, China, Asia
Like many, they home in on the outsized drop in used-car prices - one of the key aggravators of 'core' inflation that at 4.8% is still well above the now sub-3% headline CPI rate. Pointing to four straight months of ebbing 'trimmed mean' inflation measures of core inflation - which strip out high and low outliers - the Morgan Stanley team doubt June was a bum steer and see core disinflation more "a trend rather than a headfake". Inflation surprisesFed estimates of R* natural interest rateReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsR-STAR GAZINGOthers doubt the optimism, of course. And it's the latter that homes in on the prospect of an inflation undershoot. Further Fed tightening after this month, then, could well see markets start to consider inflation actually undershooting 2% targets after all - but dragging recession back onto the dashboard to boot.
Persons: it's, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Waller, Guneet Dhingra, Allen Liu, Janet Yellen jived, Mike Dolan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, Barclays, Global, Bank of America, Treasury, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Intriguingly
LONDON — U.K. inflation cooled significantly in June, coming in below consensus expectations at 7.9% annually. On a monthly basis, headline CPI increased by 0.1%, below a consensus forecast of 0.4%. Falling prices for motor fuel made the largest downward contributions to the monthly change in the CPI annual rate, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Food prices rose in June, but by less than in the same period of last year. Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen told CNBC on Wednesday that the larger-than-expected decline in the inflation rate was "very encouraging."
Persons: Sterling, John Glen Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England's, National Statistics, CNBC, Treasury, Bank of England Locations: London, lockstep
MUMBAI, July 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is poised to rise on Thursday on expectations that cooling inflation in the United States will allow the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes soon. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82-82.05 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.2475 in the previous session. "Having talked of an upside breakout (for USD/INR) last week, this has been quite a turnaround," a fx trader said. The larger-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. inflation fuelled expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is close to halting rate hikes. "The Federal Reserve seems intent on pushing ahead with a July rate hike, but the need for additional tightening thereafter is questionable," ING Bank said in a note.
Persons: interbank, Nimesh Vora, Nivedita Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Reserve Bank of, U.S . Federal, ING Bank, Korean, Brent, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, United States, Reserve Bank of India, U.S, Malaysian
On a monthly basis, the index, which measures a broad swath of prices for goods and services, rose 0.2%. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 4.8% from a year ago and 0.2% on a monthly basis. The annual rate was the lowest since October 2021. Food prices rose just 0.1% on the month while used vehicle prices, a primary source for the inflation surge in the early part of 2022, declined 0.5%. The easing in the CPI helped boost worker paychecks: Real average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation rose 0.2% from May to June and increased 1.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Persons: George Mateyo, Mateyo, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: Federal Reserve, Key Private Bank, of Labor Statistics, Bright MLS, Fed, Dow Jones, Treasury, Traders, CPI
Morning Bid: Bond yields recoil on disinflation buzz
  + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanA volte face in Treasury yields has improved investors' mood considerably this week as excitement about U.S. disinflation builds despite conflicting signals from around the world. After bumpy start to the third quarter, stocks and bonds rallied together on Monday - with both two- and 10-year Treasury yields recoiling sharply back below 5% and 4% thresholds respectively. Spurred by more signs of ebbing U.S. inflation ahead of Wednesday's critical June consumer price report, Wall Street stocks also recovered ground on Monday. A New York Fed survey showed on Monday that household inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 3.8% last month, the lowest in more than two years. But if the U.S. inflation picture is looking more optimistic, it's much harder to read around the world.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Michael Barr, John Williams, Joe Biden, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, Federal, Japan's, New York Fed, Fed, Bank of England, Treasuries, York Federal, NATO, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, ., China, Britain, Hong Kong, Vilnius
Sunak has reiterated his "total support" for the Bank of England and under fire Governor Andrew Bailey. Meanwhile, economic growth has all but stagnated and public debt has surpassed 100% of gross domestic product for the first time since March 1961. "What is perhaps surprising is that the energy shock in the U.K. was larger than in most of mainland Europe." In a recent CNBC-moderated panel at a monetary policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, Bailey noted that the U.K. labor force is unique in remaining below its pre-Covid levels. Thanos Papasavvas, founder of ABP Invest, also alluded to the unique susceptibility of the U.K. to high inflation, but said the Bank of England should have been alive to this far earlier.
Persons: Sunak, Andrew Bailey, STEFAN ROUSSEAU, Rishi Sunak, Shaan Raithatha, CNBC's, We've, they've, Raithatha, we've, Richard Flax, Panmure Gordon, Simon French, Bailey, it's, Brexit, Catherine Mann, It's, Panmure Gordon's, French, Thanos Papasavvas Organizations: Bank of England, Getty, Sunak's Conservative, The Bank of, Vanguard, CPI, CNBC, Bank, Monetary, Committee, Panmure, ABP Invest Locations: The Bank of England, U.S, Ukraine, Europe, Moscow, Sintra , Portugal, U.K, British
The OECD recently predicted that the UK will experience the highest inflation among all advanced economies this year. Inflation dipped below 10% in April but continues to exceed consensus forecasts and remains significantly higher than the Bank of England 's 2% target. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH), the ONS' preferred metric, rose by 7.9% in the 12 months to May 2023, up from 7.8% in April. LONDON — U.K. inflation came in hotter than expected in May, as consumer prices rose by an annual 8.7%, unchanged from the previous month. However, he said the Bank will now "feel like it has no choice, especially with core inflation now rising again."
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Marcus Brookes, Brookes, Thiru Organizations: OECD, Bank of England, ONS, Office, National Statistics, Reuters, LONDON, Organization, Economic Cooperation, Development, CPI, Quilter Investors, Bank Locations: Sheffield
A member of the public walks through heavy rain near the Bank of England in May 2023. LONDON — The Bank of England is "caught between a rock and a hard place" as it prepares for a key monetary policy decision against a backdrop of sticky inflation and a tight labor market, economists say. May's consumer price index figure will be published Wednesday morning, the day before the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announces its next move on interest rates. Data points since the last meeting have indicated persistent tightness in the labor market and strong underlying inflationary pressures, alongside mixed but surprisingly resilient growth momentum. Economists therefore now expect the Bank to prolong its tightening cycle and lift interest rates to a higher level than previously anticipated.
Organizations: Bank of England, LONDON, Organization, Economic Cooperation, Development
LONDON, June 19 (Reuters) - The pound hit a 10-month high versus the euro on Monday as investors waited for British inflation data and a Bank of England decision later in the week. The pound was down 0.13% against the dollar at $1.281, not far below the 14-month high of $1.285 touched on Friday. Goldman Sachs said that, according to its trade-weighted measure of sterling, the pound is at its highest since mid-2016, just after the Brexit referendum. Reuters GraphicsThe latest British inflation data is due out on Wednesday. According to pricing in derivatives markets, traders expect rates to peak at around 5.8% in early 2024 as the BoE battles inflation.
Persons: Sterling, Goldman Sachs, Pushkar Jha, BoE, Harry Robertson, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank of England, Goldman, " Bank of America, Barclays, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Britain, United States, Europe
The U.S. currency fell 0.26% to trade at 134.025 yen in the Asian morning, and earlier dipped as low as 133.895. The dollar index - which measures the greenback against a basket of six major peers, including the yen - edged 0.05% lower to 101.36. "That'll weigh on dollar-yen," with the pair potentially weakening to as low as 130 in the near term, Kadota said. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar rose 0.08% to $0.6784, pushing back toward Wednesday's 2-1/2-month high of $0.6818. New Zealand's kiwi dollar added 0.09% to $0.63735, after touching a nearly three-month high of $0.6384.
Mortgage rates tick down for the second week in a row
  + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates ticked down last week for the second week in a row, as progress on inflation is keeping rates calmer. “This week’s decrease continues a recent sideways trend in mortgage rates, which is a welcome departure from the record increases of last year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Mortgage rates topped 5% for the first time since 2011 a little more than a year ago, and have remained over 5% for all but one week during the past year. But over the last month rates have averaged about 6.37% and have been going up and down, but staying under 6.5%. “This should bode well for the trajectory of mortgage rates over the long term.”The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country.
"Markets reacted positively because they saw the inflation data as a small positive," said Michael Harris, president at hedge fund Quest Partners LLC. The rate-sensitive S&P 500 technology sector index (.SPLRCT) went up 1.22% and the communication services (.SPLRCL) rose 1.69%. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidIndexes were choppy during the session, as investors digested the positive inflation print with concerns about the looming debt ceiling. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.32-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.40-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 152 new lows.
The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% in April from a year ago and compared with expectations of a 5% increase. The lower-than-expected inflation data drove the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) up as much as 1.17% to its highest intraday level in more than eight months. The rate-sensitive S&P 500 technology sector index (.SPLRCT) rose 0.82%, while communication services (.SPLRCL) was up 1.21%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.17-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.03-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 135 new lows.
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