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In 2021, Republicans retook the Virginia House. The Virginia Senate wasn’t up in 2021 – state senators face their voters every four years. That one time was in 2011, when the two parties ended up tied in the state Senate, with the Republican lieutenant governor serving as the tie-breaker. Democrats hold the thinnest of majorities in the state Senate, while Republicans narrowly control the state House. In those elections, Democrats have been greatly outperforming the Democratic baseline (measured by comparing their candidates’ performances with Biden’s in 2020).
Persons: bode, Joe Biden, – Biden, Donald Trump –, we’ve, Biden’s, Roe, Wade, Biden, Glenn Youngkin Organizations: CNN, Virginia Legislature, Republicans, Virginia, GOP, The Virginia Senate, Virginia Senate, Republican, Washington Post, Democratic, Democrats, Republican Gov, Virginia Democrats Locations: Virginia, New Jersey, Ohio, Washington
CNN —Republicans’ long public nightmare came to an end this past week when Louisiana’s Mike Johnson became the 56th speaker of the House. Their votes were outside the mainstream among all House members but not within the House Republican Conference. In other words, 37% of House Republicans are more conservative than the new speaker. That puts Johnson right in the middle third of today’s House Republican Conference. Unlike Johnson, Jordan really is out of the mainstream not just within Congress overall but the House Republican Conference, as well.
Persons: Louisiana’s Mike Johnson, Johnson, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Biden’s, Trump, Roe, Wade, Jim Jordan, Jordan, Hal Rogers, He’s Organizations: CNN, Republicans ’, Google, Republican Party, ABC News, Washington Post, Republicans, House Republicans, House Republican Conference, Biden, Republican, Gallup, GOP, today’s House Republican Conference, yesteryear, Kentucky Rep, CBS Locations: Southern, The Ohio
But whether or not the House Republican majority elects a new speaker anytime soon is irrelevant. Much of the recent discussion over House Republican divisions tries to frame it along the right-left ideological spectrum. Those who voted against McCarthy are more conservative, on average, than the GOP at large – and this is a very conservative House majority. Are people willing to line up behind the compromises House GOP leaders have made with Democrats to keep the government going? It’s no surprise then that we’re dealing with a House GOP leadership fight that seems more fitting of an Aaron Sorkin script than the real world.
Persons: Dusty Johnson, Kevin McCarthy, It’s, McCarthy, Chip Roy, What’s, Matt Gaetz, Gaetz, Donald Trump, yearned, Trump, Kentucky’s Thomas Massie, Massie, Bill Clinton, Aaron Sorkin Organizations: CNN, Democrat, Republicans, Republican Rep, South, Republican, GOP, Voteview, Trump, NBC, Democratic Locations: South Dakota, Washington, Congress
Nor is it a sign that McCarthy has figured out a way to bring his Republican Conference together. Of those who voted on the bill, fewer than 60% of House Republicans backed it. Former President Donald Trump had been publicly pushing for a shutdown, and a lot of Republicans have been listening. A shutdown may have been avoided this time, but there’s no guarantee it will be next time. If McCarthy or whoever may succeed him ends up allowing a shutdown to happen, there will be a lot of Republicans cheering along the way.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, can’t, Voteview, Donald Trump, speakership Organizations: CNN, Republican, Republicans, Senate, Republican Conference, Democrats, GOP, Monmouth University
CNN —Most people don’t want to work into their 80s and 90s, but the powerful in Washington refuse to let go. “Anybody who thinks that if I step down, Obama could appoint someone like me, they’re misguided,” she told Elle in 2014. Nikki Haley got some early attention for her presidential campaign when she suggested a mental competency test for politicians over 75. What voters like most of all is what they knowThe most powerful force in American politics isn’t age or ideas, but rather incumbency. Everyone may have to work longer in the futureAmerican life expectancy, despite advances in medical care, was 77.4 in 2020.
Persons: Sen, Dianne Feinstein, California Democrat –, , Gavin Newsom, Feinstein, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, Pelosi, ” Pelosi, CNN’s Anderson Cooper, , “ He’s, Mitt Romney, ” Romney, Biden, Donald Trump, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, Clarence Thomas –, Thurgood Marshall, Marshall, ” Marshall, Bill Clinton, Ginsburg, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Obama, , Elle, Barack Obama, Amy Coney Barrett, Antonin Scalia, Nikki Haley, Trump, Haley, Ronald Reagan, Harry Enten, midterms, Charles Grassley, he’d, West Virginia Sen, Robert Byrd’s, Byrd, John McCain Organizations: CNN, California Democrat, California Gov, Capitol, Republican, Republicans, KGO, Utah Republican, Democrat, Former South Carolina Gov, Trump, Senate, Arizona Republican, Social Security Locations: Washington, California, Francisco, Utah, George H.W ., Former, West Virginia
He’s getting over 60% in a number of national surveys of the GOP primary and holds the advantage in every early state that’s been polled. Take a look at CNN’s most recent survey of the state’s GOP primary conducted by the University of New Hampshire. The fact that Trump’s share of the New Hampshire primary vote remains flat is notable. In 2016, New Hampshire GOP primary voters were twice as likely to identify as moderates and independents than Iowa Republican caucusgoers. And keep this in mind: The winner of the Iowa GOP caucuses rarely wins the New Hampshire GOP primary.
Persons: Donald Trump, He’s, that’s, Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, isn’t, Christie, Haley, Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, there’s, George W, Bush, Elizabeth Dole, John McCain, Dole, McCain, That’s, it’s Organizations: CNN, GOP, Trump, Granite State Republicans, University of New, South Carolina Gov, New, New Jersey Gov, Florida Gov, Fox, New Hampshire Republican, eventual, Republican Party, New Hampshire GOP, Iowa Republican caucusgoers, Iowa GOP, Republican Locations: New Hampshire, University of New Hampshire, New Jersey, Florida, UNH’s, Iowa, South Carolina, Arizona, . New Hampshire
CNN —Democrats welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Capitol Hill earlier Thursday, while Republicans were far more split. At the beginning of the war, Zelensky sported a 77% favorability rating among Democrats and a 61% favorability rating among Republicans, according to a March 2022 Quinnipiac University poll. A July 2023 Gallup poll found that Zelensky’s favorability rating with Republicans had declined to 51%. In fact, Russia’s favorability rating among Republicans – and Democrats – has declined significantly from a few years ago. For example, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say that the Korean War was “useless,” according to a 1951 Gallup poll.
Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky, Zelensky, Republicans ’, , What’s, worldviews Organizations: CNN, Capitol, Republicans, Quinnipiac University, Democratic, Gallup, Fox, Democrats, America Locations: Ukraine, States, Quinnipiac, Russia, That’s, Zelensky, Soviet Union, America
Three reasons Biden’s problems appear to be overblown
  + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
But while Biden clearly has problems – no president with an approval rating hovering around 40% is in good shape – some of his issues appear to be overblown at this time. It is worth analyzing whether the fact that a lot of Democrats don’t think Biden should be renominated masks a larger problem he could face in a general election. But Biden’s pulling in more than 90% of Democrats in Fox News and Quinnipiac University general election polling released this past week. The fact is Biden’s got problems, but worrying about renomination is not one of them. Most voters think Biden did something inappropriate related to his son’s business dealings.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Zach Wolf, it’s, David Ignatius, don’t, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Marianne Williamson, Ted Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Donald Trump’s, Biden’s, Hunter, Trump, Bill Clinton, It’s, I’m, they’d Organizations: CNN, United Auto Workers, Democratic, Washington, Fox News, Quinnipiac University, Republicans, Biden, Trump, Clinton’s Democratic Party, GOP, Voters, Gallup Locations: Delaware, midterms
With a five-vote margin in the House — and 18 House GOP members representing districts President Joe Biden won — the math just doesn’t work. The impeachment of President Andrew Johnson during Reconstruction and the impeachment inquiry into President Richard Nixon for Watergate were separated by more than a century. The impeachment of President Bill Clinton and the double impeachment of President Donald Trump were separated by a little more than 20 years. The only silver lining in this dark cloud over the Biden White House comes from independents’ take on the alternative. As our colleague Harry Enten points out, just 33% of independents think Biden did something illegal, according to a recent Fox News poll.
Persons: John Avlon, , Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Hunter, Biden’s, “ Trump, , Harry Enten, Nikki Haley, Haley, Cornel West, lionize Organizations: CNN, GOP, Republicans, Reconstruction, Biden, , Trump, ” Independent, Fox, Twitter, Green, Party Locations: “ Lincoln, America, CNN’s
Right now, the likely Republican alternative to Biden in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup appears to be Donald Trump. Voters who like Trump favor him by more than 90 points over Biden, while those who like Biden favor him by more than 90 points over Trump. This means the election will come down to the 29% of voters (according to our poll) who hold a favorable view of neither Biden nor Trump. Trump won that group by 17 points – and with it, the election. But in our latest poll, Trump leads Biden by 7 points among the 29% of voters who view neither of them favorably.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, There’s, Donald Trump, That’s, Trump, Hillary Clinton, don’t, isn’t Organizations: CNN, Republicans, Biden, Trump, Voters, GOP, Quinnipiac University, The New York Times, Siena College
Chris Christie to understand what happens when a Republican candidate is highly critical of the former president. His net favorability rating in the latest Quinnipiac University poll stands at minus-44 points among Republicans. Those with an opinion viewed him unfavorably by more than a 3-to-1 ratio (26% unfavorable to 8% favorable, a net favorability rating of minus-18 points). Among those who have, Hurd has a similar net favorability ratio to Hutchinson’s – 4% viewed him favorably and 11% unfavorably. This leaves Trump’s GOP rivals with a conundrum that even Harry Houdini would find difficult to solve: how to eat away at Trump’s support without being seen as trying to bring him down.
Persons: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, Christie, Joe Biden, Christie’s, Asa Hutchinson –, hadn’t, Hutchinson, Will Hurd, didn’t, haven’t, Hurd, Trump, Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, He’s, Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ramaswamy, Harry Houdini Organizations: CNN, Florida Gov, GOP, Trump, New, New Jersey Gov, Republican, Quinnipiac University, Republicans, New York Times, Siena, Trump . Former Arkansas Gov, Trump –, Former Texas Rep, Trump ., CBS, Quinnipiac Locations: New Jersey, Milwaukee, Quinnipiac, Carolina, Iowa, Ohio
The question alarming many Trump-skeptical Republicans this week is whether Americans would ever send a convict to the White House. Sununu dismissed national polls that show Trump’s support among Republicans well over 50% and said to look at polling in early contest states. A new poll in Iowa by the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom suggests Trump has the support of 42% of likely Republican caucusgoers. Opposing views of Trump’s supportCNN’s Harry Enten looked at that Iowa poll and argues that much of Trump’s support is committed. Two-thirds of the likely caucusgoers who say they will support Trump also say their mind is made up.
Persons: Trump, J, Michael Luttig, Joe Biden, , Sen, Bill Cassidy, Cassidy, couldn’t, Scott Jennings, Jennings, Luttig, Tucker Carlson, It’s, Chris Sununu, , ” Sununu, Joe Biden’s, Trump’s, bilking, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Sununu, That’s, caucusgoers, Ron DeSantis, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Harry Enten, What’s, Donald Trump can’t, , ” Enten, Biden, “ Donald Trump Organizations: CNN, Trump, New, Louisiana Republican, Republicans, Republican, White, Quinnipiac University, GOP, , Fox News, New Hampshire Gov, The New York Times, statehouse, Sunday, Democratic Party, Des Moines Register, NBC, caucusgoers ., caucusgoers . Florida Gov, South Locations: Atlanta, Milwaukee, New York, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Washington ,, Georgia, Louisiana, “ State, America, “ Both Iowa, caucusgoers . Florida, South Carolina, caucusgoers
The problem is Republican voters have been consistent in what they think about the different Trump indictments. Between 14% and 16% of Republicans believe Trump should have been charged, according to recent ABC News/Ipsos surveys. Trump is running neck and neck with Biden in general election surveys. Moreover, Trump is polling no worse against Biden nationally than his Republican rivals. More voters who disliked both Trump and Clinton went with Trump, and it won him the election.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden, they’re, Biden, Ron DeSantis, can’t, hasn’t, I’m, he’s, Democrat Hillary Clinton, Clinton Organizations: CNN, ABC News, Republican, Trump, Republicans, Fox News, ABC, Department of Justice, Florida Gov, Quinnipiac University, Biden, AP, Democrat Locations: Milwaukee, Fulton County, Georgia
Read CNN’s full report on Trump’s legal bills. A legal defense fund is also being set up to help offset legal costs for Trump’s associates. Read CNN’s report by Kara Scannell and Tierney Sneed on Trump’s legal maneuvers. ‘Rumpelstiltskin’He also alluded in a footnote to how Trump has fanned fury at his legal problems for his own political purposes. Trump’s political fortunes stay brightCNN’s Harry Enten has two very important points in his analysis.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden, Trump, Read, CNN’s Kristen Holmes, Walt Nauta, Carlos De Oliveira, De Oliveira, Nauta, James L, William Hennessy Jr, , Evan Perez, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, , Hillary Clinton, Kara Scannell, Tierney Sneed, Fani Willis, “ We’ve, We’re, ” Willis, Willis, Robert McBurney, Trump’s, , ” McBurney, Sara Murray, Jason Morris, Harry Enten, He’s, Ron DeSantis, Biden Organizations: CNN, DC, Republican, PAC, New York Times, Save, FBI, Trump, King, Manhattan DA, GOP, Siena College, Florida Gov, Marquette University Law School, Biden Locations: Coast : New York , Florida, Georgia, Washington, Manhattan, Florida, Fulton County, Lago, Miami, Atlanta, Fulton County , Georgia, Fulton, Pennsylvania
The chance of Trump winning another term is very real
  + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Similarly, Clinton’s edge was in the single digits over Obama in South Carolina at this stage of the campaign. Of course, winning the primary is one thing for Trump, who has led in almost every single Republican primary poll published in the past eight years. A poll out last week from Marquette University Law School had Biden and Trump tied percentage-wise (with a statistically insignificant few more respondents choosing Trump). The good news for Democrats is that general election polling, unlike primary polling, is not predictive at this point. But for now, the chance that Trump is president in less than two years time is a very real possibility.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Democrat Al Gore, Republican George W, Bush, Hillary Clinton, Gore, Clinton, Ron DeSantis, George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama, Obama, Republican John McCain, John Edwards, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Romney couldn’t, McCain, Joe Biden, Biden Organizations: CNN, Republican, Democrat, Florida Gov, Trump, Marquette University Law School, Biden, ABC News, Washington Post, Quinnipiac University, Democrats Locations: Bush, Trump’s, Iowa , New Hampshire, South Carolina, Clinton, Iowa, New Hampshire, Marquette, Pennsylvania, Erie, Quinnipiac
Same old story with aging politicians
  + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The freeze is not an isolated incidentEarlier this year, McConnell could not hear reporters at a different news conference. Plus, McConnell is known to have fallen at least three times in the past year, according to CNN’s Manu Raju. His fall at the Waldorf Astoria in Washington led to a concussion and broken ribs that sidelined him for weeks. Nikki Haley got some early attention for her presidential campaign when she suggested a mental competency test for politicians over 75. The only other longer-serving senator is Sen. Charles Grassley, who is 89, and who won an eighth term last November.
Persons: it’s Mitch McConnell, McConnell, CNN’s Manu Raju, Raju, Feinstein, Sen, Dianne Feinstein, Democratic Sen, Patty Murray, John Fetterman, Nikki Haley, Joe Biden’s, Biden, , Donald Trump, Haley, Barack Obama, Ronald Reagan, Harry Enten, midterms, hasn’t, Charles Grassley, he’d, West Virginia Sen, Robert Byrd’s, Byrd Organizations: CNN, Republican, Senate, Hill, Reagan National Airport, Capitol, Feinstein Democrats, Democratic, Pennsylvania, Former South Carolina Gov, Republicans, Trump, Voters, Social Security, GOP, West Virginia Locations: convalesce, Finland, Washington, Kentucky, California, Former
The West Virginia Democrat’s model has served him well with repeated statewide wins in one of the most conservative pro-Trump states in the nation. For now, Manchin’s noncommittal answers are worrying some of his Democratic colleagues. Polls show that both Biden and Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, are unpopular. It argues, therefore, that 79 electoral votes are potentially at risk for Biden from the involvement of a third-party challenger. Such a challenger would also need to win states where Biden won big, and at least some conservative bastions.
Persons: West Virginia Sen, Joe Manchin, Donald Trump, Manchin, who’s, Joe Biden, roil Biden’s, CNN’s Manu Raju, , “ I’ve, Biden, Manchin’s, Arizona Sen, Mark Kelly, ” Kelly, “ I’m, West, Vermont Sen, Bernie Sanders, Biden –, Georgia –, CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, Trump, , Robert Kennedy Jr, , Kennedy, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, Jake Tapper, , Jon Huntsman, Ryan Clancy, CNN’s Michael Smerconish, we’ve, Jill Stein, Ralph Nader, Gary Johnson –, Nader, Stein, siphoning, Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, CNN’s Harry Enten, don’t, Chris Christie, Trump’s, ” Christie Organizations: CNN, West, Democratic, West Virginia Democrat’s, Trump, Senate, Manchin, Harvard, Green, GOP, Biden, Florida Gov, Democratic National Committee, Republican Gov, Saint Anselm College in, Republican, Democrats, Green Party, Libertarian Party, Trump Republicans, Quinnipiac University, Former New Jersey Gov, ABC Locations: West Virginia, New Hampshire, Granite, Arizona, “ State, Vermont, Georgia, Covid, South Carolina, Florida, Saint Anselm College in Manchester, United States, Washington, Former
Why Biden worries about a third-party rival in 2024
  + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
This would normally be the part of the story where I’d tell you that a third-party candidate has little chance of winning next year – and I am telling you that. It’s also true, however, that 2024 is shaping up to be the kind of election Biden could lose primarily because of a third-party candidacy. This year it’s pretty clear that such a portion of third-party voters probably already exists for a simple reason: Biden and Trump are historically unpopular. The headlines and the fears Democrats have about a third-party candidate are, at least partially, a tacit acknowledgement that Biden is unpopular. So why aren’t we hearing Republicans worry about a third-party candidate?
Persons: CNN —, Joe Biden’s, , Cornel West’s, Joe Manchin, It’s, Biden, Let’s, Donald Trump, Democrat Al Gore, Ralph Nader’s, Gore, Republican George W, Bush, Nader, Trump, Hillary Clinton, don’t, FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley, We’re, Gary Johnson Organizations: CNN, , Democratic, Trump, Democrat, Florida –, Green Party, Republican, Biden, Republican Party, Quinnipiac University, Independent Locations: New Hampshire
CNN —In the classic 1999 film, “Election,” the high school student government vote has everything: naked ambition, campaign poster shredding, ballot manipulation, infidelity and more. But what the gifted writer Tom Perotta likely couldn’t imagine was an election in which two unpopular candidates square off for president. That doesn’t happen in high school, even in a satirical movie. The president supports stripping that state of its first-in-the-nation primary status in favor of South Carolina, the state that energized Biden’s 2020 campaign. “In the runup to the 2024 elections, Democrats plan to put the Supreme Court on trial,” wrote David Mark.
Persons: Reese Witherspoon, Tracy Flick, ” Matthew Broderick, Jim McAllister, Tracy, Tom Perotta, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Harry Enten, , Julian Zelizer, ” Biden, Biden, specter, … ” Dana Summers, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, — Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, George H.W, Bush —, Kennedy, , MAGA, Sen, Lindsey Graham’s, Trump’s, Dean Obeidallah, Graham, Michael Flynn, Flynn, Peter Bergen, Erik German, Bill Bramhall, ” “ Flynn, , America’s, , Geoff Duncan, Drew Sheneman, Roe, Wade, David Mark, … ” Lisa Benson, GoComics.com, Biden romped, Jack Ohman, Kara Alaimo, Coles Whalen, , Alice Driver, Clay Jones, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Meta, David Zurawik, Victoria, Olesya Khromeychuk, Victoria Amelina, Andrei Kartapolov, Sharp, ” Khromeychuk, ” Don’t, Sheikh Mohammed Al, Issa, David A, Nicole Hemmer, Jill Filipovic, Sonia Pruitt, Lynda Lin Grigsby, Sara Stewart, Jharrel Jerome, Boots Riley, Holly Thomas, Phoebe Waller, Indiana Jones, Harrison Ford, He’s, goddaughter Helena, Archimedes, Jones, Waller Organizations: CNN, Capitol, Trump, Biden, Agency, Republicans, RFK Jr, New, , FBI, Economic, Republican National, Republican Party, GOP, Democratic, McKinsey & Company, Twitter, Facebook, Russian Duma Defense, Hollywood, , Indy Locations: New Hampshire, South Carolina, ” Bergen, German, Davos, Georgia, California, , Russian, Ukrainian, Kramatorsk, Ukraine, New York, Donetsk, Auschwitz, Here’s, Oakland , California
All those candidates, however, then proceeded to lose the New Hampshire primary and the party nomination. Only 26% of New Hampshire Republican primary voters identified the same way. Trump has also been weaker among demographic groups who make up a larger share of the New Hampshire Republican electorate. Although the 2016 Iowa entrance poll did not ask about income, the 2020 general election exit poll did. (Note: Household and family income are somewhat different measures, but I’m merely demonstrating that New Hampshire Republicans are, on the whole, wealthier than Iowa Republicans.)
Persons: Donald Trump, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Mike Pence –, Trump, Iowans, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz, Bob Dole, George W, Bush, Mike Pence, Joseph Prezioso, Ron DeSantis, Quinnipiac, Iowa Republican caucusgoers, I’m, Chris Christie, Christie Organizations: CNN, , Trump, Iowa Republican, Trump Republicans, Republican, New, Iowa, GOP, Hawkeye, Getty, New Hampshire Republicans, Iowa Republicans, Republicans, Florida Gov, New Hampshire GOP, New Hampshire Republican, New Jersey Gov Locations: South Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Derry , New Hampshire, AFP, Hampshire, New, New Jersey
CNN —The Supreme Court handed down several key rulings this past week that dismayed liberals. This majority of Americans who wanted abortion to be legal nationally have maintained their stance since the Supreme Court officially struck down Roe in June 2022. Rather, it’s how many people simply didn’t care enough to pay close attention to the affirmative action case before the Supreme Court. Ipsos’ survey found that 43% of Americans wanted the Supreme Court to allow the government’s student loan forgiveness plan to move forward, while 40% did not. This led to a historically strong performance for the party in the White House during the 2022 midterm elections and a major backlash against the Supreme Court.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, Roe, Wade, Tayfun, Biden, hadn’t, Marquette, Ipsos, don’t, Wade didn’t Organizations: CNN, Supreme Court, Fox News, ABC News, Washington Post, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Pew Research Center, CBS, May Marquette University Law School, NBC, Roe, Supreme Locations: California, Kentucky, New York City, Marquette
CNN —Republican Chris Christie is hoping the second time’s the charm when it comes to White House runs. He’s not alone among the major Republican contenders polling south of 5% on average – seven others also fit the description. It’s not unheard of for candidates polling below 5% (or even at 1%) at this point in the cycle to win their party’s nomination. lies with the two candidates polling above 5%: former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Upon officially declaring his bid, he jumped into the double digits in the Republican horserace and saw his unfavorable ratings decline.
Persons: Chris Christie, Let’s, Christie, He’s, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Trump, Carter, Clinton, wasn’t, George McGovern, Maine Sen, Ed Muskie, McGovern, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Massachusetts Sen, Ted Kennedy, Democrat Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Mondale, We’ve, I’m Organizations: CNN, White House, New, GOP, CBS, Florida Gov, The South, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Democrat, Trump, Republican Locations: New Jersey, The, The South Dakota, Maine, Iowa, New, Colorado
Why Trump’s second indictment may not sink him in 2024
  + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
CNN —The evidence in the indictment against Donald Trump for his alleged mishandling of classified documents after leaving office can seem “jaw-dropping”. Keep in mind, though, that 50% of Americans indicated in an ABC News/Ipsos poll after his New York indictment related to alleged hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. Biden was a point ahead of him in an average of national surveys before the New York indictment. There have been some signs, however, that Trump’s post-New York indictment bump has stalled and even receded somewhat. Whether another indictment is the way to eat into his support among Republicans is a whole other question.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Stormy Daniels, shouldn’t, Joe Biden, Biden, Ron DeSantis Organizations: CNN, ABC News, Washington Post, Trump, ABC, GOP, Florida Gov, Republican, Republicans Locations: New York, York, Miami
This reflects history, which shows that while being vice president often correlates with success in future presidential ambitions, it is far from a guarantee. Think about recent vice presidents who have tried to upgrade their positions. That doesn’t seem like a particularly high success rate, though we should remember that many vice presidents (like Cheney) don’t run. About 55% of vice presidents who ran for their party’s nomination became the head of their party’s ticket. The last time it happened was 1940, when President Franklin Roosevelt crushed his vice president, John Nance Garner.
Persons: Joe Biden, Barack Obama’s, Mike Pence, Biden, Dick Cheney, Democrat Al Gore, Dan Quayle, Richard Nixon, Kamala Harris, Cheney, don’t, Pence, Donald Trump, Trump, White, Franklin Roosevelt, John Nance Garner, Quayle, George W, Bush, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, Obama, Trump’s, , Biden didn’t Organizations: CNN, Democrat, Biden, GOP, House, Republican, Quinnipiac University, Trump, Fox Locations: George H.W .
Ron DeSantis has a ‘lovability’ problem
  + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
DeSantis, himself, has a bit of a “lovability” problem among Republican voters. The key to differentiate yourself in a primary is to be beloved (i.e., have a high strongly favorable rating). Back in December, 40% of Republican voters in a Fox News poll had a strongly favorable opinion of the Florida governor. Last month, the same poll found DeSantis’ share of strongly favorable support dropping to 33%. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released earlier this month found that 68% of Republican voters would be satisfied if DeSantis were the nominee.
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