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U.S. retail spending and manufacturing weakened in November, signs of a slowing economy as the Federal Reserve continues its battle against high inflation. November retail sales fell 0.6% from the prior month for the biggest decline this year, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Budget-conscious shoppers pulled back sharply on holiday-related purchases, home projects and autos. Manufacturing output declined 0.6%, the first drop since June, the Fed said in a separate report.
U.S. retail spending and manufacturing weakened in November, signs of a slowing economy as the Federal Reserve continues its battle against high inflation. November retail sales fell 0.6% from the prior month for the biggest decline this year, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Budget-conscious shoppers pulled back sharply on holiday-related purchases, home projects and autos. Manufacturing output declined 0.6%, the first drop since June, the Fed said in a separate report.
An October household spending report will show how consumers fared as the holiday season approached, with high inflation and rising interest rates weighing on the economy. The Commerce Department will release spending, income and inflation figures at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday. The report will offer a broad picture of consumer health, with spending trends on services such as travel, housing and utilities.
Consumer Spending Jumped in October as Inflation Eased
  + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Harriet Torry | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
American households ramped up spending in October headed into the holiday season, taking advantage of a jump in income and a slight easing of still-high inflation. Consumer spending increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday, the strongest gain since June. Households spent more on essentials such as rent and food, as well as new vehicles.
A store in the Georgetown section of Washington, D.C., aims to entice shoppers. It is the $1.7 trillion question for the U.S. economy: How long can the savings consumers built up during the pandemic keep their spending going? The answer: about nine to 12 more months.
Inflation readings have moderated somewhat in recent months but remain near the highest levels since the 1980s. A government report on spending and inflation in September will offer details on the backdrop for consumers headed into the holiday shopping season. The Commerce Department data, to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, could show the extent to which the gap between Americans’ spending and incomes widened as they felt the pinch from rising prices. The report also will include the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
According to a new survey, economists see a 63% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. The U.S. will enter a recession in the coming 12 months as the Federal Reserve battles to bring down persistently high inflation, the economy contracts and employers cut jobs in response, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists. On average, economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 63%, up from 49% in July’s survey. It is the first time the survey pegged the probability above 50% since July 2020, in the wake of the last short but sharp recession.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the U.S. central bank needs to tighten monetary policy until underlying inflation is declining, and then wait to see whether it has done enough. “The one mistake that I’m acutely aware of—that I want to avoid repeating from the 1970s—is when policy makers saw the economy weakening, saw inflation start to tick down, and then they cut rates, thinking they had done the job. And then inflation flared back up again—that, I believe, is a mistake we cannot make and will not make,” Mr. Kashkari said Tuesday during an online event hosted by The Wall Street Journal.
Falling home sales are rippling through the economy, providing a window into how rising interest rates can cool spending, hiring and growth. When people buy new homes, they typically buy a lot to go inside, including furniture, curtains, lighting fixtures and appliances.
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