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Here are 3 reasons to buy gold, according to UBS
  + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold stumbled this month after a strong start to the year. However, UBS Global Wealth Management sees more upside ahead. The precious metal is down about 2% in May, as optimism around a possible U.S. debt ceiling deal grows. "Based on the 1Q23 data from the World Gold Council, central banks are on track to buy around 700 metric tons of gold this year, much higher than the average since 2010 of below 500 metric tons," he wrote. Dollar weakness: The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against six others, is down 0.2% over the past year, which should be supportive for gold prices.
May 12 (Reuters) - Global equity funds witnessed a fourth successive weekly outflow in the week ended May 10, hit by deadlock over the U.S. debt ceiling and lingering worries over an economic slowdown. According to Refinitiv Lipper, global equity funds saw $4.9 billion worth of outflows, which was the fourth consecutive outflow. U.S. equity funds had outflows worth $5.7 billion, and Asia and European funds had modest inflows of $1.1 billion and $0.59 billion, respectively. Reuters GraphicsGovernment bond funds obtained $3.01 billion, while high-yield bond funds and inflation-linked bond funds had outflows worth $1.5 billion and $125.3 million, respectively. Data for 23,973 emerging market funds showed investors received a net $838 million worth of equity funds but exited a net $622 million worth of bond funds.
But Gary Richardson, a Federal Reserve historian, is worried policymakers — now contemplating taking a breather — still risk repeating mistakes from that era. A premature retreat could cause the Fed to lose its handle on the situation, presenting even grimmer options down the road. Quick rewind: The chair of the Federal Reserve at the time, Arthur Burns, hiked interest rates dramatically between 1972 and 1974. Inflation later roared back, forcing the hand of Paul Volcker, who took over at the Fed in 1979, Richardson said. But the comparisons reveal the high stakes for the Federal Reserve at a moment of acute uncertainty.
The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.2% to 466.29 points by 0805 am GMT. The index was pressured last week when, unlike the Fed, the European Central Bank signalled more rate hikes were on the table. A slump in energy shares on weakness in crude prices also added to the declines. Energy (.SXEP) was the top sectoral gainer on Monday, up 0.8% as crude prices strengthened. Dutch Central Bank President Klaas Knot on Sunday said the ECB's rate hikes are starting to have an effect, but more will be needed to contain inflation.
But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.
The dollar's weakening trend that started in late September is likely to continue, according to UBS. The prospect of Federal Reserve halting interest-rate increases will likely weigh on the greenback, strategists said. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Its miserable run will likely continue as the Federal Reserve looks set to halt its interest-rate increases and given the risk of a banking crisis, according to UBS. UBS warned that a slowdown in US economic growth is also likely to weigh on the buck.
He's now warning a recession is on the US economy's doorstep amid a credit crunch. One is the fact that the Fed's rate hikes haven't completely worked their way into the economy yet. A credit crunch means consumers are less able to spend and businesses are more likely to fail, heightening recession risks. Well no, it means everything was fine, but it doesn't guarantee that things will remain fine," Shepherdson said. "The credit crunch plus just the lag effect of the interest rate increases I think means it is not going to be fine."
Slowing growth will crash European stock party
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
LONDON, May 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - European shares have been on the rise for seven months, outshining their U.S. counterparts, and are now just 6% below their record high. Luck played a part in the recent European surge. Natural gas prices have fallen more than 80% since their August peak, boosting economic growth and reducing companies’ costs. Analysts currently expect a 0.4% fall in European companies’ earnings per share (EPS) in 2023, according to Barclays. European investors have had an unusually enjoyable, and profitable, ride.
(Reuters) -Shares of First Republic Bank tumbled nearly 32% on Friday after a CNBC report said the troubled lender was most likely headed for receivership under the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). FILE PHOTO: A trader works at the post where First Republic Bank stock is traded on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 16, 2023. First Republic earlier this week said its deposits had slumped by more than $100 billion in the first quarter. “The potential worst-case scenario stemming from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank appears to have been averted,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is set to publish an internal review of its supervision of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, April 28, at 11 a.m.
(Reuters) - Shares of First Republic Bank plunged to a record low on Friday, losing nearly half of their value after a CNBC report said the troubled lender was most likely headed for receivership under the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). FILE PHOTO: A trader works at the post where First Republic Bank stock is traded on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 16, 2023. A Reuters report of a government-brokered rescue deal for First Republic had pushed its shares up as much 6.6% earlier in the session. First Republic earlier this week said its deposits had slumped by more than $100 billion in the first quarter. Since the start of the year, it has lost nearly 97% in value, making it the worst-performing S&P 500 stock.
First Republic shares gain on hopes of rescue deal
  + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
"The potential worst-case scenario stemming from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank appears to have been averted," said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management in a note. "But the problems at First Republic are a reminder that further problems remain possible." First Republic shares hit a record low this week after it said deposits slumped by more than $100 billion in the first quarter. The San Francisco-based lender's stock has more than halved so far this week. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is set to publish an internal review of its supervision of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, April 28 at 11 a.m.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. equities are the least attractive market right now, UBS chief investment officer saysChief Investment Officer at UBS Mark Haefele discusses the attractiveness of the U.S., European and Asian equity markets and the possibility of interest rate hikes.
The S&P 500's "fear gauge" fell to its lowest level in 15 months after the recent banking turmoil. Investors are eerily calm – but heightened uncertainty could rock markets soon, UBS says. But the relative consensus could soon be shattered by a credit crunch, UBS said. They have warned tighter credit could fuel a decline in spending and investment levels that would weigh on stock-market valuations. "We expect credit conditions will continue to tighten with a negative impact on growth," he added.
Some of Wall Street's top banks raised their forecasts for China's economy this week. The banks all predict China's GDP will grow by around 6% in 2023. UBS also turned more bullish on China's economy, raising its year-end prediction to 5.7%. "We expect China's GDP to peak around 8% in the second quarter before easing to around 5.5% in the second half of the year." "This will bring the full year GDP growth to at least 5.7%, in our view," the strategists added.
Investors have mostly yawned at lower inflation data this week, keeping stocks range-bound. Strategists at the asset management arms of Goldman Sachs and UBS are signaling caution. The message from markets is clear: lower inflation isn't necessarily a green light for stocks. Strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM) and Goldman Sachs Asset Management issued even sterner warnings, with neither seeing much upside for stocks in the foreseeable future. Goldman Sachs Asset Management is also bullish on long-duration assets while the economy weakens, especially compared to riskier high-yield bonds.
US stocks were mixed on Wednesday as traders digested weak jobs data. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1% as traders retreated on recession fears. Traders were mulling ADP private payroll data, which showed that US companies added fewer jobs than expected. Data showed private payrolls increased by 145,000 last month, far below estimates of 210,000. In a note to clients on Wednesday, UBS Global Wealth Management's investment chief, Mark Haefele, said recession risks have increased.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHaefele: Tighter lending and credit conditions could mean we have a harder landing than before this period of banking stressMark Haefele, CIO of UBS Global Wealth Management, says the U.S. is likely getting close to a peak in yields, so now is a good time for investors to lock in higher yields before they start to roll over.
UBS, the world's largest asset manager, downgraded stocks and says they have little upside now. The firm says investors shouldn't sit on the sidelines, especially in the bond market. UBS advised investors on what to buy in stocks, bonds, currencies, and alternative assets. "The bond market is pricing for a recession to start as soon as the summer," Haefele wrote, while oil prices and credit spreads also reflect substantial recession risk. Speaking of stocks, Haefele doesn't like what he sees.
ETF trends reflect a wild first quarter for the stock market
  + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
It's the end of a wild first quarter for stock and bond investors, and ETF flows are reflecting that turmoil. The good news: Despite big market swings , equity and bond ETFs still saw overall inflows in the first quarter. ETF flows year to date: $70 billion inflows Consisting of: Equity: $24 billion inflows Fixed Income: $43 billion inflows Other (currency, etc. ): $3 billion inflows Source: ETF Store While that is still inflow, it is far less than has been typical in recent years. Much of that uncertainty can be seen in a notable pickup in money going into money market funds, traditionally a safe haven asset.
First Citizens Bank stock jumped as much 50% in Monday's trading session. The surge follows news that First Citizens will acquire a large chunk of failed SVB's assets. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) said the Raleigh, North Carolina-based bank will acquire $72 billion worth of SVB assets at a $16.5 billion discount. SVB collapsed on March 10 after a bank run, sending shockwaves through global financial markets and steep sell-off in bank stocks on contagion concerns. "Financial conditions are likely to tighten, increasing the risk of an economic hard landing even if central banks ease off on interest rate hikes," Haefele said in a recent note.
US stocks ended higher Friday, capping off a week of Fed moves and more bank fears. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields both notched their lowest levels in six months. Deutsche Bank stock plunged as a new round of bank jitters hit the market in the wake of SVB and CS failures. All three major indexes ended the day higher, capping off another tumultuous week for markets. Yields on key Treasury bonds were down.
March 14 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. regional banks rose on Tuesday after suffering double-digit losses over the past few days following the biggest bank collapse since the 2008 global financial crisis. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) sent shockwaves through global markets, despite assurances from U.S. President Joe Biden and other policymakers that banks and deposits were safe. First Republic Bank (FRC.N) rose 57% before trading was halted for volatility, a day after hitting an intraday record low of $17.53. The S&P 1500 regional banks sub-industry index (.SPCOMBNKS) advanced 7.7% after shedding 20% in the past three sessions. Big banks rose with JPMorgan up 1.6%, Wells Fargo (WFC.N) 6.6% and Bank of America (BAC.N) 4.2%.
February’s inflation report showed consumer prices rising by 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 6% - in line with analysts expectations, but far above the 2% rate the Fed hopes to achieve. The CPI report "was pretty much as expected. We're at a point of market anxiety where expected is good," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments. The CPI report was not all good news. The CPI report “wasn’t worse than expected,” he said.
Investors are fleeing bank stocks after the quick failure of Silicon Valley lender SVB Financial. Goldman Sachs is pointing traders to the highest-growth stocks in the new-look financial sector. US financial stocks were walloped this week after the back-to-back failures of Silicon Valley startup lender SVB Financial and crypto lender Silvergate. The stock fell 60% in a day. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index fell 7.7% Thursday, its worst single-day loss in almost three years.
Wilson sees a deterioration in earnings expectations developing in March. Two of Wall Street's most widely-followed strategist are warning that the month of March could see the unraveling of the stock market. For Wilson's part, he sees forward earnings expectations continuing to deteriorate despite recent optimism, and thinks that investors will start getting ahead of this turn sometime this month. Stocks tend to figure it out a month early and trade lower and this cycle has illustrated that pattern perfectly. Morgan StanleyWilson has also pointed out in recent notes that stocks remain historically overvalued relative to where bond yields are.
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