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☆ Businesses aren't acting like a recession is coming this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Still, businesses aren't feeling too optimistic, with most still expecting a recession this year. However, big companies are hiring, businesses are expanding, and lots of entrepreneurs are filing to open new startups. This was partly due to consumers spending more and business investment being way up. The main measure of business investment in the GDP report is well above pre-pandemic levels, and shows no signs of slowing down ahead of a hypothetical recession. Businesses also aren't feeling too optimistic according to the National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index.

Persons: —, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, US . Entrepreneurs, Economic Innovation Group, Economic, Nationwide, Edelman Data, Intelligence, National Federation of Independent Business, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Bokeh Capital's Kim Forrest and EY-Parthenon's Gregory Daco
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Bokeh Capital's Kim Forrest and EY-Parthenon's Gregory DacoKim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, and Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, join 'The Exchange' to discuss revenue earnings coming in higher than expected, global growth divergence influencing U.S. monetary policy, and more.

Persons: Bokeh Capital's Kim Forrest, Parthenon's Gregory Daco Kim Forrest, Gregory Daco Organizations: Bokeh Capital Partners Locations: EY

☆ The pathway to a soft landing is still very much possible, says EY-Parthenon's Gregory Daco
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe pathway to a soft landing is still very much possible, says EY-Parthenon's Gregory DacoKim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, and Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, join 'The Exchange' to discuss revenue earnings coming in higher than expected, global growth divergence influencing U.S. monetary policy, and more.

Persons: Parthenon's Gregory Daco Kim Forrest, Gregory Daco Organizations: Bokeh Capital Partners Locations: EY

☆ The US economy is surging
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Real gross domestic product, or real GDP, grew at an annualized rate of 2.4%. That advance estimate for the second quarter beat the 1.8% increase expected. A recent GDP preview from Gregory Daco, chief economist of EY, also highlighted strength in the US economy and what it may mean. "Still, the economy continues to face significant headwinds from persistently elevated prices and costs, tightening credit conditions and rising interest rates. That's also much higher than the 3.2% seen in the second quarter of 2022.

Persons: Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Powell, Gregory Daco, Daco, That's Organizations: Service, BEA, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank's, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ 15 years of low interest rates reshaped the U.S. economy. Here's what's changing as rates stay higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Carlos Waters | In Carloswaters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The United States is entering a new economic era as the Federal Reserve hikes its benchmark interest rate. As interest rates climb, economists say financial conditions are headed back to being more normal. Government bonds, Treasury securities and savings accounts all return very little yield when interest rates are low. At the same time, low interest rates increase the value of stocks, homes and Wall Street firms that make money by taking on debt. "Barring a catastrophe, I don't think we'll see lower interest rates any time soon," said Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief at Bankrate.com.

Persons: Roger Ferguson, we'd, Gregory Daco, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Wall Street Locations: States, America, EY, Washington, Bankrate.com, U.S

☆ US stocks trade mixed as Dow caps off its longest winning streak since 2017
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded mixed Friday, with the Dow capping off a 10-day winning streak. It's the longest run of gains for the index since August 2017. Next week investors will be watching big earnings from Microsoft and Meta, as well as a Fed meeting. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. More than 70% of the companies that have reported so far have beat expectations, according to FactSet data.

Persons: Gregory Daco Organizations: Dow, Microsoft, Meta, Service, Dow Jones, American Express, Interpublic, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Version française: 4e nuit de violences avant les obsèques de Nahel
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Le ministère de l'Intérieur a annoncé que 1.311 personnes avaient été interpelées, un chiffre en forte hausse par rapport aux 875 de la nuit précédente, mais souligné sur Twitter que "les violences commises cette nuit ont été d'une plus faible intensité en comparaison à la nuit précédente". "Nous appartenons à la même communauté de foi", a ajouté une femme. Reuters a également pu constater que les accès au cimetière seraient bloqués pendant l'inhumation de Nahel. Jeudi, une marche blanche en la mémoire du jeune homme avait réuni plusieurs milliers de personnes. Reportage Gilles Guillaume, avec Noemie Olive et Tassilo Hummel à Nanterre et Marc Leras à MarseilleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge shows prices rose just 0.1% last month
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge cooled off last month, and consumers reined in some spending as the economy slows, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department. Personal spending ticked up by just 0.1%, a more moderate pace than April’s revised 0.6% growth rate. When adjusting for inflation, consumer spending was flat. Consumers refill the coffersThe data in recent months shows a gradual cooling in consumer spending, Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CNN. “There were no fireworks within the Fed’s favorite inflation report today,” George Mateyo, chief investment officer for KeyBank, wrote in a statement.

Persons: Diane Swonk, ”, Gregory Daco, “ It’s, Friday’s, Abby Omodunbi, Janet Yellen, Yellen, ” Yellen, ” George Mateyo, KeyBank, Swonk, it’s, we’ve Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Commerce Department, CNN, “, PNC, Fed, Transportation Locations: Minneapolis, EY, New Orleans

☆ US weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in 20 months as economy shows stamina
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

"The economy is currently displaying genuine signs of resilience," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon in New York. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended June 24. Continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for June's unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in May. GDP consumer contributionEconomists had expected first-quarter GDP growth would be raised slightly to a 1.4% pace.

Persons: Gregory Daco, Unadjusted, Rubeela Farooqi, Jerome Powell, Amira Karaoud, Scott Hoyt, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Reuters, Financial, U.S, Treasury, REUTERS, Conference Board, Gross, Commerce Department, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, EY, New York, Minnesota, Ohio, California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Jersey, White Plains , New York, Spanish, Madrid, Louisville, U.S, West Chester , Pennsylvania

☆ US economic growth expanded much faster in the first quarter than previously estimated
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US economy expanded at a much faster pace in the first three months of the year than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose by an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter, up from the second estimate of 1.3%. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic output and the latest estimate incorporated data from the Commerce Department’s Quarterly Services Survey. The revised trade flows contributed positively to GDP, with exports rising more than previously estimated while imports were revised down. And consumers might spend a bit more as the still try to recoup lost time or secure purchases they previously weren’t able to.

Persons: —, ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, “, Jerome Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department’s Quarterly Services Survey, Ernst &, Fed, “ Consumers, Comerica Bank, CNN Locations: Washington

☆ Economic Data Points to Faster Growth Early in Year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The NewsThe United States economy grew faster early this year than previously believed. That was a significant upward revision from the 1.1 percent growth rate in preliminary data released in April. (An earlier revision, released last month, showed a slightly stronger rate of 1.3 percent.) An alternative measure of growth, based on income rather than production, painted a different picture, showing that the economy contracted for the second quarter in a row. That spending, fueled by a strong job market and rising wages, helped offset declines in other sectors of the economy like business investment and housing.

Persons: ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst, Young Organizations: United, Gross, Commerce Department, EY Locations: United States

☆ Just days after pausing rate hikes, Fed official calls for more increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —The dust has barely settled on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its aggressive rate-hiking campaign — but in public appearances Friday, central bank officials have a clear message: Keep hiking. In one of the first speeches, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that additional rate increases are necessary to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed’s decision to restart hikes depends on what data show in the coming weeks and months. It is the job of bank leaders to deal with interest rate risk and nearly all bank leaders have done exactly that,” Waller said. A representative of the event said the conference wasn’t being recorded and that only registrants who paid a fee were able to attend.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, ” Powell, Waller, “, Michael Gapen, Gapen, they’re, Louis President James Bullard, Thomas Barkin Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Norges Bank, International Monetary Fund, Ernst &, Bank, BofA Global Research, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Maryland Government Finance, Association Locations: Washington, Oslo, Norway, ”

☆ Easing inflation pressures give the Fed room to skip a rate hike. But then what?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Softening inflation data for May likely has bought the Federal Reserve at least a month, though not much more, before it has to figure out what to do next. Following the CPI release Tuesday morning, markets priced in a 95% probability that the Fed will skip a hike at its two-day meeting concluding Wednesday, according to CME Group data . "The latest consumer price inflation data doesn't change the Fed outlook for a June rate hike skip, but it illustrates the 'should I stay, or should I go' dilemma that the Fed faces when considering further rate increases," wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. After this week's meeting, Fed officials will release their "dot plot" rate projections for the next few years, plus their collective outlook on inflation, GDP and unemployment. The retreat on inflation, then, presents both an opportunity and a challenge for a Fed that was caught off guard by the big price surge.

Persons: Gregory Daco, Jim Smigiel, Krishna Guha, Guha, Jerome Powell, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Group, SEI, Evercore ISI, Tech, Pantheon Locations: EY

The Bank of England in February removed its explicit guidance and tied decisions to inflation data. The Bank of Japan, by contrast, still battling to raise perennially weak inflation, has left the core part of its guidance intact with a pledge to "patiently" sustain loose policies. The European Central Bank says it has adopted a "meeting-by-meeting" approach with "a strong preference against returning to outright forward guidance on policy rates." If the projections show the policy rate moving up later this year, officials will likely face questions if they do as expected and hold rates steady at the June meeting. If the rate is not seen moving up, they will face questions about not being responsive to recent data showing strong inflation despite pledging to be "data dependent."

Persons: Jerome Powell, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Powell, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Gregory Daco, Louis, James Bullard, Data's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Louis Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Central

☆ Joan Didion, RFK’s Assassination and Why “The White Album” Still Feels So Relevant Today. - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Timothy Denevi | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

But many of the specific stories she alludes to in the essay have remained maddeningly opaque. Precisely what prompted her physical breakdown, as well as her terse reference to Kennedy’s funeral, have long been the subject of speculation for Didionologists. “What was she doing at the Royal Hawaiian Hotel during Robert Kennedy’s funeral?” Tracy Daugherty wrote in “The Last Love Song,” his 2015 biography of Ms. Didion. What is the point of teasing us with the hotel if not to deliberately disorient the reader?”Now we finally know the answer. (A transcript, processed in 2019, can also be found in the New York City Public Library’s collection of Ms. Stein’s papers.)

Persons: There’s, Joan Didion’s, Robert Kennedy’s, “, Didion, ”, Didion’s, —, ” Tracy Daugherty, John Gregory Dunne, Jean Stein, Robert Kennedy, John F Organizations: Hawaiian Hotel, Hawaiian, Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, New York Locations: Honolulu, ”

☆ Premarket stocks: The uber-wealthy are doing just fine and Wall Street is cashing in
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But that’s not the case for everyone: The ultra-wealthy are doing just fine, and Wall Street firms are taking advantage of that. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has slipped into recession as energy price shocks took their toll on consumer spending. In the past 10 weeks, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management opened 40,000 new accounts. Last year, it added around one new client with assets of $100 million or more per day, Mary Erdoes, head of asset and wealth management at the bank, told investors last week. Dollar General customers turn to food banksDollar General (DG) stock had one of its worst days ever on Thursday.

Persons: New York CNN —, that’s, JPMorgan Chase, Andy Cohen, Mary Erdoes, It’s, Goldman Sachs, Louis Vuitton, Dom Pérignon, Dior, Huw Roberts, Hermes —, Roberts, ”, Erwan, “, Gregory Daco, Allison Morrow, Jeff Owen, Owen, Cash, They’re, Elisabeth Buchwald, Treasury hasn’t, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management, Citigroup, International Monetary Fund, Lamborghini, HSBC, EY, Dollar, Treasury, US Treasury Locations: New York, China, United States, Germany, Europe, BlackRock

☆ It's unclear how consumers will cope with softer job market and more debt, says economist Greg Daco
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's unclear how consumers will cope with softer job market and more debt, says economist Greg DacoGregory Daco, EY-Parthenon Chief Economist, joins 'Fast Money' to explain why he's bearish on the consumer in a softening economy.

Persons: Greg Daco Gregory Daco

Analysts say the proposed debt ceiling deal could have only marginal effects on the US economy. "The impacts will be negative but small," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN. Here's what's in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy:What's in the deal? It would keep non-defense spending relatively flat in fiscal 2024 and then set a cap of 1% in spending increases for fiscal 2025. The debt deal and GDP.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco Organizations: Moody's, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: West Virginia

☆ Debt ceiling deal won’t have much impact on the US economy, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is the world’s largest, so the relatively modest effects on growth could be good news for investors who feared the debt ceiling crisis could have posed a greater and more widespread drag. Here’s what’s in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy. What’s in the debt ceiling dealThe deal would suspend the federal government’s $31.4 trillion debt limit through January 2025. The debt deal and GDPEconomists at Goldman Sachs expect the deal to reduce federal spending by as much as 0.2% of gross domestic product per year over the two years of the deal, compared with their baseline estimate. “Getting this uncertainty out of the way for markets and decision makers has a real impact,” said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist Advisory Services.

Persons: Joe Biden, Mark Zandi, Biden, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco, ”, Mike Skordeles, Zandi, ” Michael Reynolds Organizations: DC CNN, House Republicans, Moody’s, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Congressional, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, “ Locations: Washington, West Virginia

☆ Job Openings Rose in April, Defying Cooling Trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

The jump in openings may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to take interest rates even higher. “JOLTS data should not drastically color this broader assessment of labor market tightness but will matter at the margins for the Fed’s own perception of labor market heat.”Some question how much weight to give the report. After peaking at a record of around 12 million in March 2022, job openings as measured by the government have fallen overall. Some economists think the JOLTS report should be taken with a grain of salt. The May employment report, to be released by the Labor Department on Friday, will fill out the labor market picture before Fed policymakers meet on June 13 and 14.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Skanda Amarnath, Gregory Daco, ”, Goldman Sachs, — Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Bloomberg Locations: America, EY

If your school suspends your financial aid, you may be able to appeal the decision and get it back. Many schools require that students maintain a minimum GPA and complete a minimum number of credits per semester to qualify for financial aid." "They know that if students get less financial aid, then they will be less likely to stay and graduate." Components of a financial aid suspension appeal letterThe exact financial aid suspension appeal process varies by college, but your school may have a form you'll need to fill out to get the ball rolling. Financial aid suspension appeal letter exampleYou'll want to format your appeal letter much like a cover letter — with a header, date, and formal greeting.

☆ What to expect from the jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —If the latest employment trends continue and economists’ forecasts prove true, Friday’s jobs report could bring back that pre-pandemic feeling. Economists expect the US economy to have added 180,000 jobs in April, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv. It could also hammer home the fact that the US labor market has indeed cooled down from its red-hot recovery over the past two years. What a rising unemployment rate meansEconomists are expecting the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5%, according to Refinitiv. Mixed signalsPayroll processor ADP’s monthly look at private-sector employment activity, released two days before the BLS’ employment report, is sometimes looked at as a preview of what to expect from the federal data.

☆ Consumers are ‘retrenching.’ What that means for recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But for consumers, the lengthy spell in the crossfire of persistently high prices and rising interest rates has taken its toll. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat in March, marking the fourth time in five months that expenditures held steady or declined. “Further deterioration in the job market — the last remaining leg propping up the consumer — is bound to accelerate the downshift in consumer spending in the coming months. Private label growth is one of six indicators that Allison tracks to determine a consumer recession. “If you ask the economists, ‘Are we in a recession?’ they’re going to say ‘No, we’re not in a recession,’” he said.

[1/2] A "now hiring" sign is displayed outside Taylor Party and Equipment Rentals in Somerville, Massachusetts, U.S., September 1, 2022. Economists polled by Reuters expect a gain of 239,000 jobs in March, with hourly wages rising at a 4.3% annual rate and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.6%, a level seen less than 20% of the time since World War Two. Unemployment is still at a very low level," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with Reuters last week. How "slack" in the labor market links to lower inflation may depend on where job growth slows, and over what timeline. "The services sector, in particular, has contributed substantially to recent inflation, reflecting ongoing imbalances in labor markets where supply remains impaired and demand remains robust," they wrote.

☆ Premarket stocks: The US economy is unwell. April could be a cruel month
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —After months of a remarkably strong US labor market and economy, everything seems to be slowing down. The question is whether Friday’s monthly jobs report, easily the most anticipated piece of data out this week, will confirm the trend. The unflinching resilience of the US labor market is one of the greatest sources of tension in today’s economy. Over the past year, the Fed has raised interest rates from nearly zero to a range of 4.75% to 5% to cool the economy. A slowdown in the official US jobs report Friday could signal an economic sea change.

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