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Here's why you may get a smaller pay raise next year
  + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The typical worker will get a 4.1% pay raise for 2025, down from 4.5% this year, according to a new poll by WTW, a consulting firm. Job market was 'unbelievably robust'Worker pay in 2021 and 2022 grew at its fastest pace in well over a decade amid an "unbelievably robust" job market, Wisper said. "I'm not sure I'll ever see that kind of job market in my lifetime again," Wisper said of 2021 and 2022. Still high relative to recent pastWhile the typical 4.1% projected raise is smaller than that during the last pay cycle, it's "still kind of high" relative to recent years, according to Wisper. For example, the median annual pay raise had largely hovered around 3% in the years after the 2008 financial crisis, she said.
Persons: WTW, Lori Wisper, Wisper, Julia Pollak, I'm, they're, Pollak Organizations: Hinterhaus, Stone, Companies, Workers, ZipRecruiter, Finance Locations: U.S
Harris' visit, following the attempted assassination of former President Trump, makes this her fourth trip to Michigan this year and seventh visit since taking office. However, Harris voiced some distinctions from Biden before becoming vice president, Watson noted. The vice president plans to bring more relief to borrowers, they said. Harris proposed repealing the Trump tax cuts to pay for it. — Jessica DicklerHousingHarris has been a proponent for affordable housing policies both during her tenure as vice president and as senator.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Trump, Olivia Troye, Amanda Stratton, Harris, Chris duMond, Chris Dumond, Biden, Garrett Watson, Watson, — Kate Dore, Drew Altman, Altman, She'd, Fatima Goss Graves, Roe, Wade —, Greg Iacurci, Pell Grant, Joe Biden, Miguel Cardona, Annie, Laura Veldkamp, Veldkamp, — Jessica Dickler, May, — Ana Teresa Solá Organizations: Getty, Tax, Tax Foundation, Biden, — Kate Dore Health, Affordable, Medicaid, National Women's Law, CNBC, Current U.S . Department of Education, Corinthian Colleges, U.S . Department, Corinthian, Columbia University Business School, U.S . Department of Housing, Urban Locations: KALAMAZOO , MICHIGAN, Kalamazoo , Michigan, Michigan, North Carolina, California, U.S
Airlines around the world experienced disruption on an unprecedented scale after a widespread global computer outage grounded planes and created chaos at airports. Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesMajor airlines like United, Delta and American Airlines grounded flights Friday morning amid a global IT outage impacting their operations, triggering delays for travelers. More from Personal Finance:Global tech outage hits financial services companies, including Charles SchwabRent a car for a road trip, or drive your own? Expedia, for example, said on social media Friday morning it was "experiencing high call volume and long wait times due to a global IT outage. The United Airlines terminal on July 19, 2024 as a global technology outage affected LAX airport in Los Angeles.
Persons: Ting Shen, Eric Napoli, Napoli, There's, John Breyault, Charles Schwab, Taylor, Biden, Breyault, Sara Rathner, Myung J, Chun Organizations: Delta Airlines, Ronald Reagan National Airport, Airlines, Bloomberg, Getty, American Airlines, U.S . Department of Transportation, National Consumers League, Finance, Global, United Airlines, Los Angeles Times, Transportation Department, Microsoft Locations: Arlington , Virginia, Delta, Los Angeles
Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesThe Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is cracking down on so-called paycheck advance programs, which have grown popular with workers in recent years. Such programs, also known as earned wage access, allow workers to tap their paychecks before payday, often for a fee, according to the CFPB. More than 7 million workers accessed about $22 billion in wages before payday in 2022, according to a CFPB analysis of employer-sponsored programs also published Thursday. Consumers may encounter earned wage access under various names, like daily pay, instant pay, accrued wage access, same-day pay and on-demand pay. However, most users do pay fees, CFPB found in its analysis of employer-sponsored programs.
Persons: Rohit Chopra, Tierney L, Biden, CFPB's, they've, Phil Goldfeder, Goldfeder, It's, hasn't, EarnIn, CFPB, Mitria Spotser, EWA Organizations: Consumer Financial Protection, Financial, Bloomberg, Getty, California Department of Financial Protection, Innovation, Federal Reserve, Finance, American Fintech Council, Biden, Workers, Center for Responsible
Maskot | Maskot | Getty ImagesBuying a new electric vehicle isn't the only way consumers can access a $7,500 federal EV tax credit. Perhaps the best known of them — the "new clean vehicle" tax credit — is a $7,500 tax break for consumers who buy a new EV. But many auto dealers are also passing along a $7,500 tax break to lessees, via a different (and, experts say, lesser-known) mechanism called the "qualified commercial clean vehicles" tax credit. This EV tax credit "leasing loophole" has likely been a key driver of increased leasing uptake in 2024, Barclays auto analysts said in an equity research note published in June. The $7,500 tax credit enables dealers to charge low monthly payments for leases, thereby helping "stoke demand" for EVs, Barclays wrote.
Persons: Joe Biden, , Dealers aren't, Ingrid Malmgren, Hyundai Kia, Brian Moody, Autotrader, Moody, Malmgren Organizations: Maskot, Barclays, U.S . Treasury Department, Plug, stoke, EVs, Foreign, Toyota, Hyundai, EV, Consumers Locations: U.S, Asian, North America
Joseph Lamberti/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesMany Americans think they're insulated from the effects of global warming. But climate change is already having negative and broad impacts on household finances, according to experts. "There are a bazillion pathways" to adverse financial impact, he added. However, when it comes to financial impact, "I think you could argue the correct answer for [people] is, 'It's already hurting me,'" Krosnick said. How global warming and inflation intersectClimate change also exacerbates inflation, research shows — a dynamic dubbed "climate-flation."
Persons: Joseph Lamberti, Gernot Wagner, Jon Krosnick, Krosnick, Angela Weiss, Wagner, Mario Tama Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images, ICF, Columbia Business School, Finance, Stanford University, Resources, Research, Afp, Getty, Columbia Business, University of Illinois, University of Oregon, New York City, Workers, European Central Bank, Potsdam Institute, Climate Locations: Philadelphia, U.S, American, Miami, Bronx, New York, Urbana, Champaign, Canada, Baker , California, California, Phoenix
Physical goods have accounted for much of the deflation over the past year, according to economists. Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. However, a shift toward higher tariffs and less free trade could serve to push up goods prices "quite significantly," she added. Why there's been deflation for food, travel, electronicsPrices have also declined for items including food, travel and electronics. Travelers have seen deflation for airline fares (prices are down 5.1% annually) amid factors like an increased volume of available seats.
Persons: Olivia Cross, Cross Organizations: Getty, Capital Economics, U.S, AAA, Travelers Locations: U.S, North America, China
They also generally like to examine "core" inflation readings. The monthly core CPI reading was 0.1% in June, the smallest increase in about three years, since August 2021. Shelter inflation has moderated much slower than expected, one of the big reasons inflation hasn't yet fallen back to target, economists said. There were encouraging signals in the latest CPI report: Monthly shelter inflation dropped to 0.2% after being stuck at 0.4% for four consecutive months. Services inflation is the trouble spotInflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021.
Persons: David Paul Morris, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Sarah House, Aubrey George, George, Joe Seydl, Olivia Cross Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, CPI, Housing, of Labor Statistics, Morgan Private Bank, Capital Economics, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
The Federal Reserve, which acts independently from the Oval Office, was slow to act to contain hot inflation, for example. That Biden is seen as stoking high inflation is due somewhat to optics: he took office in early 2021, around the time inflation spiked notably, economists said. "In my view, neither Trump nor Biden is to blame for the high inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. At a high level, hot inflation is largely an issue of mismatched supply and demand. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and several goods from China, which Biden largely kept intact.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Justin Sullivan, Trump, Biden, David Wessel, Mark Zandi, Wu Shaoyang, Wessel, Zandi, Stephen Brown, Eric Baradat, , Michael Strain, Strain, Jerome Powell, Olivier Douliery Organizations: CNN, Getty, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump, Hutchins, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Qingdao Port, International Monetary Fund, North, Capital Economics, American, Afp, American Enterprise Institute, Federal, . Federal Locations: Atlanta, U.S, Ukraine, Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, North America, Washington, It's
watch nowHousing inflation has remained stubbornly high even as inflation in the broad U.S. economy has cooled significantly from peak levels during the pandemic era. At a high level, "shelter" inflation is a measure of U.S. rental prices, said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. Why CPI shelter inflation has fallen slowlyThe pullback in shelter inflation has been slower than expected, economists said. How the CPI reflects homeownershipThe shelter inflation index is meant to measure the average cost of housing in the U.S. economy, J.P. Morgan's Seydl said. "When it comes to the CPI, [shelter] does not mean the cost for homes for purchase," said the NAR's Lautz.
Persons: Joe Seydl, Jessica Lautz, Olivia Cross, We've, Jerome Powell, Selma Hepp, Morgan's Seydl, Powell, Seydl Organizations: Morgan Private Bank, Housing, National Association of Realtors, of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics, Finance, Federal, CoreLogic, BLS, Olivia Cross North, Capital, CPI Locations: North America, U.S, Olivia Cross North America
SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesThe U.S. Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates before year's end. How interest rates impact the U.S. dollarIn reality, the dynamics driving dollar fluctuations are more complex than whether the Fed raises or lowers interest rates. The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, for example. This is happening against the backdrop of a relatively strong U.S. economy, which also generally supports a strong dollar, Petersen said. For example, investors generally get a better return on cash when interest rates are high.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho, Jonathan Petersen, Petersen, " Petersen, that's, Richard Madigan, Benjamin Atwater, Atwater, Morgan's Madigan, Jerome Powell, Bonnie Cash Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, . Federal, U.S ., Capital Economics, U.S, Morgan Private Bank, European Central Bank, Fed, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, ECB Locations: Japan, Asia, Denver, Europe, U.S
Ridvan_celik | E+ | Getty ImagesEmployment scams surged last year, as criminals leveraged artificial intelligence to steal money and personal information from unsuspecting job seekers, experts said. Consumer reports of job scams jumped 118% in 2023 from the prior year, according to a recent report by the Identity Theft Resource Center. How job scams can rip you offCon artists will "push you for money" during the hiring process, the FTC said. Job seekers should not expect to have to hand over personal information until after they've received and accepted a job offer, Velasquez said. How to protect yourself from job scams
Persons: ITRC, Eva Velasquez, Velasquez, Con, Robert Rodriguez, they've Organizations: Getty, Theft Resource Center, Social, Federal Trade Commission, FTC, Google, Craigslist, Facebook, Finance, New York
For some car owners, it might be more financially savvy to rent a vehicle for a road trip than use their own, experts said. Drivers would need to compare total rental costs — the daily rental rate and potential add-ons like insurance — versus those of operating their own car. "Most people will be shocked at what it actually costs to own and operate their car," Brannon said. The cost of rental car insurance might add $30 to $61 to the daily rate, depending on insurance type, according to Allianz Travel, citing MarketWatch data. Car owners may already get full coverage on a rental via their own car insurance policies, or may have some coverage through credit-card benefits, Brannon said.
Persons: Patchareeporn, Greg Brannon, Brian Moody, Autotrader, Moody, Brannon, Hopper, Alistair Berg, Digitalvision, Kelley, KBB, Autotrader's Moody Organizations: AAA, Toyota, Allianz Travel, Finance, Car, Getty, Allianz, State
"He caused the inflation," Trump said of Biden during the June 27 debate. "He decimated the economy, absolutely decimated the economy," Biden said. 'Neither Trump nor Biden is to blame'Global events beyond Trump's or Biden's control wreaked havoc on supply-and-demand dynamics in the U.S. economy, fueling higher prices, economists said. "In my view, neither Trump nor Biden is to blame for the high inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and several goods from China, which Biden largely kept intact.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Andrew Harnik, Trump, Biden, David Wessel, Mark Zandi, Mario Tama, Wessel, Zandi, Stephen Brown, , Michael Strain, Strain Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump, Hutchins, Brookings Institution, Finance, Social Security, Medicare, Moody's, Port, International Monetary Fund, North, Capital Economics, American, American Enterprise Institute, Federal, U.S Locations: Atlanta, U.S, Ukraine, China, Port of Los Angeles, San Pedro , California, North America, It's
David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesThe U.S. stock market has become dominated by about a handful of companies in recent years. Some experts question whether that "concentrated" market puts investors at risk, though others think such fears are likely overblown. The so-called "Magnificent Seven" — Apple , Amazon , Alphabet , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla — make up about 31% of the index, it said. Why stock concentration may not be a concernThe S&P 500 tracks stock prices of the 500 largest publicly traded companies. When there were big market crashes, they generally don't appear to have been associated with stock concentration, he added.
Persons: Jensen Huang, David Paul Morris, Morgan Stanley, Charlie Fitzgerald III, John Rekenthaler, Rekenthaler, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton, We've, Goldman Sachs, Fitzgerald, Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo, Charlie Fitzgerald Organizations: Nvidia Corp, Blackwell, Nvidia, Technology, Bloomberg, Getty, Microsoft, Tesla, U.S, Finance, Morningstar, Big U.S, Goldman, Goldman Sachs Research Locations: Orlando , Florida, U.S, Switzerland, France, Australia, Germany, South Korea, United Kingdom, Taiwan, Canada
Here's why your July 4th barbecue may be pricier this year
  + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Miodrag Ignjatovic | E+ | Getty ImagesAmericans firing up their grills for Fourth of July celebrations will likely pay more for some traditional barbecue staples this year. The average cookout for 10 people will cost $71.22 this year, up 5% from 2023 and about 30% five years ago, according to an American Farm Bureau Federation estimate. That said, consumers have seen prices fall for some specific barbecue items like chicken breast and potatoes, the Farm Bureau said. Meat (including ground beef, pork chops and chicken breast) accounts for 50% of the total cost of an Independence Day barbecue, according to the Farm Bureau. Two pounds of potatoes cost $1.53, down 17%, the Farm Bureau said.
Persons: Miodrag Ignjatovic, That's, Courtney Schmidt, Luke Sharrett, Adene Sanchez, Schmidt Organizations: Getty, American Farm Bureau, Food Institute, CNBC, Farm Bureau, Bloomberg, Farm Locations: U.S, Wells, Wells Fargo's, Louisville , Kentucky, Wells Fargo
Zumper analyzed median asking rents for apartment listings in the largest 100 U.S. cities by population. Rents have also risen by at least 10% for both one- and two-bedroom apartments in other major metros: Lincoln, Nebraska; Chicago; Buffalo, New York; Madison, Wisconsin; Rochester, New York; and New York City, according to Zumper. What causes rent inflationAt a high level, rent inflation is guided by supply-and-demand dynamics, said Crystal Chen, an analyst who authored the Zumper analysis. Basically, areas with fast-growing rents are seeing demand outstrip the supply of available apartments, while those with falling rents have seen their apartment inventories growing. Rent inflation has fallen substantiallyRent inflation plummeted in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Persons: Jamie Kelter Davis, Zumper, Crystal Chen, Eric Adams, Fitch, Chen Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, New, New York City Department of Housing Preservation, Development, Finance, York City Locations: Chicago, U.S, Syracuse , New York, Lincoln , Nebraska, Buffalo , New York, Madison , Wisconsin, Rochester , New York, New York City, Oakland , California, Memphis, Chattanooga , Tennessee, Cincinnati , Ohio, Colorado Springs , Colorado, Irving , Texas, Jacksonville , Florida, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham , North Carolina, New York, Akron , Ohio, Wichita , Kansas, York
Overall, the share of households with life insurance has "steadily" decreased since the early 1970s, according to the NAIC. That said, even as fewer people buy life insurance, "I do think there's a need for it," he added. What type of life insurance to buyThere are two broad types of life insurance: Term and permanent. Permanent life insurance, such as a whole or universal life policy, is meant to last throughout life. How much life insurance to getLuca Sage | Digitalvision | Getty Images
Persons: Knoll, Shapiro, Scott Shapiro, , Luca Sage Organizations: Planning Center . Insurance, Getty, Illinois Department of Insurance, KPMG, Digitalvision
New York is launching a program offering homeowners up to $14,000 in total rebates for energy-efficiency upgrades to their property, and more states are expected to follow suit by summer's end. The rebate programs are part of the federal Inflation Reduction Act, the largest piece of climate legislation in U.S. history, which President Joe Biden signed in 2022. The law earmarked $8.8 billion for consumers via two Home Energy Rebates programs. Such projects might include installing air sealing, insulation, electric heat pumps and electric stoves, for example. When combined with a fledgling state program called EmPower+ — which offers up to $10,000 per low-income household — consumers can access up to $24,000 in total rebates for making energy-efficiency upgrades, according to Doreen Harris, president and CEO of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority.
Persons: Joe Biden, Doreen Harris Organizations: Energy, Finance, SEC, FEMA, New York State Energy Research, Development Authority Locations: York, New York
"Real" earnings measure the net growth in workers' wages after inflation. The trend of growth in annual real earnings has persisted since May 2023, according to BLS data. That marks a reversal from April 2021 to April 2023, when inflation spiked and eclipsed growth in the average worker's paycheck. That month, the average worker saw their pay growth spike to about 6% annually. "This is good news for consumers," since it generally equates to an increase in their well-being over time, he added.
Persons: It's, Chris Tilly, Maximiliano Dvorkin, Louis, Dvorkin Organizations: Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Finance, University of California, Federal Reserve Bank of St, BLS Locations: U.S, Los Angeles
There are currently some "micro pockets" of deflation in the U.S. economy, said Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Why prices are deflating for goodsConsumers have largely seen prices deflate for physical goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, economists said. For example, households have seen prices for furniture and bedding fall by 3.7% since May 2023, according to the consumer price index. watch nowThe U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Travelers have also seen deflation for airline fares (-5.9%), hotels (-1.7%) and car rentals (-8.8%) since May 2023.
Persons: Joe Seydl, Seydl, Michael Pugliese, they've, Hayley Berg, Hopper, Olivia Cross Organizations: Getty, Morgan Private Bank, Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Finance, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, U.S, Canadian, Capital Economics Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
The federal government has issued more than $1 billion in tax credits as an upfront cash incentive to buyers of electric vehicles, the U.S. Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service said Wednesday. The Inflation Reduction Act created a mechanism whereby tax credits for buyers of new and used EVs — worth up to $7,500 and $4,000, respectively — could be delivered by car dealers at the point of sale. Previously, consumers had to wait until filing their annual tax return, perhaps months or more than a year after their vehicle purchase, to get the federal credit. Americans can now also get the EV tax credit upfront regardless of their federal tax liability, which wasn't the case prior to 2024. "This has never been done before," Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said during a press call.
Persons: , Wally Adeyemo, expats, Biden, Adeyemo Organizations: U.S . Treasury Department, Internal Revenue Service, Finance, Trump
But tapping it may be tough due to high interest rates, according to financial advisors. Reverse mortgageA reverse mortgage is a way for older Americans to tap their home equity. A reverse mortgage is likely best for people who have much of their wealth tied up in their home, advisors said. A home equity conversion mortgage (HECM) is the most common type of reverse mortgage, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. watch nowA reverse mortgage is available as a lump sum, line of credit or monthly installment.
Persons: Selma Hepp, Hepp, Lee Baker, Atlanta . Baker, Kamila Elliott, Grace Cary, Elliott, Baker, Alexander Spatari, Cash Organizations: Getty, Apex Financial Services, Collective Wealth Partners, Consumer Financial, Bureau Locations: Cultura, Atlanta .
However, that premium is hard to quantify since some uber-wealthy buyers will pay almost anything to own a piece of pop culture, according to real estate experts. "It's like owning a Picasso" or a Fabergé egg, said Tomer Fridman, a real estate agent based in Los Angeles who specializes in luxury and celebrity homes. An offer is pending on that home and was made within a week of being on the market, said Andrea Gillespie, a spokesperson for Coldwell Banker Real Estate. Infamy sells, tooInfamy can also fetch a higher price, said Arto Poladian, a Redfin luxury real estate agent in Los Angeles. Tomer Fridman luxury real estate agentSometimes, even being in the vicinity of a famous residence can help, he added.
Persons: Erin Hooley, Tomer Fridman, Fridman, Marilyn Monroe, Sylvester Stallone, Kylie Jenner, Travis Scott, Amanda Pendleton, Carlos Avila Gonzalez, Andrea Gillespie, John Lennon, Yoko Ono's, it's, , Philip Norman, Bob Saget, John Stamos, Arto Poladian, Poladian, Charles Manson's, Leno, Rosemary LaBianca, There's, Pendleton, Brady Organizations: Chicago Tribune, Tribune, Service, Getty, San Francisco, Coldwell Banker, New York Times, Buyers Locations: Los Angeles, Chicago, loos, City , California
The five-day, in-office workweek is antiquated for a large share of workers, a relic of the pre-pandemic job market. "Remote work is not going away," said Nick Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University who studies workplace management practices. Remote work is not going away. Nick Bloom economics professor at Stanford UniversityHis research suggests workers value hybrid work about the same as an 8% raise. 'Firms care about profits, not productivity'In addition, hybrid work doesn't appear to have any negative impact on workers' productivity, Bloom said.
Persons: Justin Paget, Digitalvision, Nick Bloom, workdays, lockdowns, Nick Bunker, Martin, Bloom, Bunker, it's, flexibly Organizations: Stanford University, Research, Finance, Employers, U.S, McKinsey, University of Pittsburgh
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