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ORLANDO, Fla., Feb 22 (Reuters) - Although China's selling of U.S. Treasury securities over the past year raises multiple geopolitical questions, it's merely switching to other dollar bonds - casting doubt about a more alarming strategic investment shift. Beijing's stash of U.S. government bonds ended last year at $862.3 billion, the lowest since May, 2010, according to Refinitiv data. Meanwhile, China's holdings of U.S. agency bonds last year rose by $50.9 billion and valuation effects accounted for $34.8 billion. This means the real increase was $85.9 billion, substantially more than the decline in Treasuries holdings. "Maybe the big story is there is no sign that China's dollar holding portfolio has changed much.

☆ Dollar climbs against yen as BOJ affirms ultra-easy policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Speculators are betting that the BOJ, the last major central bank to still employ loose monetary policy, is edging towards a shift to a tighter stance. That has driven a rally in the yen that has pushed the dollar/yen pair down by 14% in the past three months. So between now and the next meeting, there is no policy shift and that is indicated by Kuroda," he added. The dollar rose as high as 130.60 yen and was last up 0.9% at 129.58. On the week, the dollar rose 1.3% versus the Japanese currency.

☆ Analysis: Investors look to emerging markets as planets align for end of dollar bull market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - As the U.S. dollar tumbles from multi-decade highs, some investors are betting emerging market currencies will be big winners from a sustained reversal in the greenback. Signs of a broader turn in dollar sentiment are visible in the buck’s 8% decline against a basket of developed market currencies from its September highs. "The planets are lining up for a dollar bear market," said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US. Emerging market currencies have outperformed their developed market counterparts this year, with MSCI's index of emerging market currencies down 5% year-to-date, while the dollar's G10 peers have lost nearly twice as much. Conversely, tightening by central banks around the world also risks sparking a global recession, a scenario some believe could hurt emerging market currencies and help the dollar.

☆ BIS warns of $80 trillion of hidden FX swap debt
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that pension funds and other 'non-bank' financial firms now have more than $80 trillion of hidden, off-balance sheet dollar debt in the form of FX swaps. Its main warning though was what it described as the FX swap debt "blind spot" that risked leaving policymakers in a "fog". FX swap markets, where for example a Dutch pension fund or Japanese insurer borrows dollars and lends euro or yen in the "spot leg" before later repaying them, have a history of problems. For both non-U.S. banks and non-U.S. 'non-banks' such as pension funds, dollar obligations from FX swaps are now double their on-balance sheet dollar debt, it estimated. Market volatilityDINO-MITEOther sections of the report focused on findings from its recent global FX market survey.

☆ Think the dollar is about to peak? Wall Street pros explain how to trade it
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts expect the dollar to decline against 18 out of 38 currencies in the fourth quarter of this year, according to FactSet data. UBS UBS considers selling the dollar against G-10 currencies being a "top investment idea for 2023." According to the investment bank, years of negative interest rates have led to a sizeable un-hedged buildup of dollars worldwide. BCA Research Analysts at BCA Research say from a technical standpoint, the dollar is due for a reversal. Goldman Sachs The Wall Street bank remains bullish on the dollar over the next three months and sees certain G-10 currencies only recovering beyond the six-month horizon.

☆ VIEW Bank of England lifts UK rates to 3% in historic hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Toby MelvilleLONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Bank of England raised UK interest rates to 3% on Thursday in its largest rate hike since 1989 and warned of a "very challenging outlook" for the economy. Money markets showed traders now expect UK rates to peak at 4.6% by next September, compared to expectations of 4.8% just two days ago. UK bank stocks (.FTNMX301010) fell 0.8%BONDS: Yields on the two-year gilt were last up 1 basis points at 3.041%, compared with 3.064% before the BoE announced its decision. Rates markets are pricing another 50bps hike at each of the December and February meetings, although still reflect a lower terminal rate than just a week ago. ANDREW ALDRIDGE, PARTNER AT DEEPBRIDGE CAPITAL, LONDON"Quelling rampant inflation and kickstarting a slowing economy left the Bank facing a difficult balancing act, with today's interest rate hike to 3% hardly surprising in this context.

☆ Foreign investors aren't willing to fund UK fiscal and external deficits, says J.P. Morgan
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailForeign investors aren't willing to fund UK fiscal and external deficits, says J.P. MorganSam Zief, head of global FX strategy at JPMorgan, says aggressive action from the Bank of England or "some kind of a rollback" of the government's fiscal plans is needed, and the latter looks increasingly likely.

☆ Could the British pound hit parity with the dollar? Here's what the bulls and bears say
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

First, it fell to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar after the U.K. government announced its "mini-budget." And of course, a strong dollar hasn't helped either . Strategists at Nomura were the most bearish on the pound, expecting it to trade below parity — at $0.98 — by the fourth quarter. ING: £1 = $1-$1.05 Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, said the pound looked too strong at $1.10. "A policy mix of loose fiscal policy (with little detail on how to close the deficit) and milder monetary tightening gives investors few reasons to hold the pound," they said.

☆ Futures shackled by rate-hike, recession worries
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 7, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidSummarySummary Companies Futures down: Dow 0.76%, S&P 0.75%, Nasdaq 0.47%Sept 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell on Monday, kicking off another week on softer footing, as investors worried that the Federal Reserve's aggressive push to curb inflation may tip the American economy into recession. ET, Dow e-minis were down 225 points, or 0.76%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 27.75 points, or 0.75%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.47%. "As the SPX tests its June lows, the question becomes is that alone good enough reason to buy?" "Given the acceleration higher in the dollar, global yields, and the breakdowns across global FX, it's hard to not have concerns about longer-term implications."

☆ Morning Bid: "Our currency" and falling knives
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

People walk past a currency exchange point, showing an image of the U.S. dollar in Cairo, Egypt, March 22, 2022. "The dollar is our currency, but it's your problem," John Connally told his G10 counterparts in November, 1971. The UK's market mayhem is front and center for world markets, but has a particular impact on Asia via FX reserves. Some $625 billion global FX reserves are in sterling, most of it probably in gilts. Global financial conditions are the tightest now since 2009, according to Goldman Sachs.

☆ The signs traders are watching to signal the stock market has bottomed
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Based on the combined inputs of the nominal 2-year and real 10-year, my best guess is that the S & P 500 is worth 14.3x fwd EPS. With the S & P closing at 3,693 Friday, that's about 8% lower. The big moves in the dollar are just killing emerging market funds. The largest, iShares Core Emerging Market ETF (IEMG), hit a better than 2-year low on Friday. And as the Dollar Index has risen roughly 4% this month alone, the emerging market ETFs have dropped too.

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