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Analysis: Why is North Korea testing so many missiles?
  + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Josh Smith | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Analysts say North Korean leader Kim Jong Un seems to genuinely dislike the allied drills, and particularly the involvement of U.S. stealth fighters. After North Korea conducted an apparent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test on Thursday, the allies announced they would be extending Vigilant Storm past Friday. "North Korea is aiming to increase its deterrence capabilities," he said. If North Korea prefers to conduct a nuclear test in a crisis, it is well on its way to manufacturing one." North Korea has completed all the technical preparations for a nuclear test - its first since 2017 - according to South Korean and U.S. officials.
LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Russia said on Saturday that the accelerated deployment of modernised U.S. B61 tactical nuclear weapons at NATO bases in Europe would lower the "nuclear threshold" and that Russia would take the move into account in its military planning. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered the gravest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when the two Cold War superpowers came closest to nuclear war. Russia has around 2,000 working tactical nuclear weapons while the United States has around 200 such weapons, half of which are at bases in Italy, Germany, Turkey, Belgium and the Netherlands. "We cannot ignore the plans to modernize nuclear weapons, those free-fall bombs that are in Europe," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told state RIA news agency. "The United States is modernizing them, increasing their accuracy and reducing the power of the nuclear charge, that is, they turn these weapons into 'battlefield weapons', thereby reducing the nuclear threshold," Grushko said.
Russia has about 2,000 working tactical nuclear weapons while the United States has around 200 such weapons, half of which are at bases in Italy, Germany, Turkey, Belgium and the Netherlands. "We cannot ignore the plans to modernize nuclear weapons, those free-fall bombs that are in Europe," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told state RIA news agency. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said Russia will defend its territory with all available means, including nuclear weapons, if attacked. The U.S. B61 nuclear bomb was first tested in Nevada shortly after the Cuban Missile Crisis. The United States, according to the U.S. 2022 Nuclear Posture Review published on Thursday, will bolster nuclear deterrence with the F-35, the B61-12 bombs and a nuclear-armed air-launched cruise missile.
WHAT ARE TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS? Academics and arms control negotiators have spent years arguing about how to define tactical nuclear weapons (TNW). The clue is in the name: they are nuclear weapons used for specific tactical gains on the battlefield, rather than, say, destroying the biggest cities of the United States or Russia. The atomic bomb dropped by the United States on the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945 was about 15 kilotons. The president is the ultimate decision maker when it comes to using Russian nuclear weapons, both strategic and non-strategic, according to Russia's nuclear doctrine.
October marks 60 years since the Cuban missile crisis, when the US and USSR were on the brink of nuclear war. "The current crisis is far worse than the Cuban missile crisis," one historian recently told Insider. But today's simmering Ukraine war poses 'far worse' nuclear dangers, experts say. "The current crisis is far worse than the Cuban missile crisis, in part because during the Cuban missile crisis both Kennedy and Khrushchev were willing to discuss a way of walking back the confrontation. "This crisis is more dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis," Andy Weber, a former assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical and biological programs, recently told Politico.
"Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons, so the risk of nuclear war in this scenario is if, somehow, the conflict escalated to pull in NATO countries or the US," she added. "That raises the risk of nuclear confrontation because some of the NATO countries have nuclear weapons." The US, for instance, has about 5,500 nuclear weapons, while Russia has about 6,000, according to the Federation of American Scientists. When a nuclear bomb strikes, it sets off a flash of light, a giant orange fireball, and building-toppling shockwaves. The fallout of a nuclear bomb also depends on how a country chooses to detonate it.
The use of a nuclear weapon is "directly tied to Russia's fate on the battlefield," one expert recently told Insider. Putin, who claimed to have placed Russia's nuclear deterrent forces on high alert just days later, has continued to remind the world of Russia's nuclear might in the months since. There are tactical nuclear weapons that are more than four times as powerful. At best, a single tactical nuclear weapon could destroy about a dozen tanks, Podvig said. Kristensen said during the ACA webinar on Tuesday that he believes it's unlikely that Russia employs nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
President Joe Biden told CNN that Russian President Vladimir Putin is a "rational actor." The president added that Putin made a poor decision in assuming Ukraine would immediately fold. "I think he is a rational actor who has miscalculated significantly," Biden said in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper on Tuesday. Biden's characterization of Putin as a rationally thinking leader also comes after the Russian president's veiled threat of nuclear war. In discussing Putin's goals in Ukraine with CNN, Biden questioned the Russian leader's decision and said that Putin misjudged Ukraine if he thought the country would immediately fold.
A North Korean missile launch is seen in a photo released by state media on Monday. Rodong SinmunAnalysts noted that with Monday’s reports, North Korea broke six months of silence on its testing program. Kim Jong Un watches a missile launch in a photo released by North Korean state media on Monday. Rodong SinmunIn the report, Kim called South Korea and the United States “the enemies” and said North Korea doesn’t need to hold talks with them. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un observes a military drill on October 8 in photo from North Korean state media.
Kaliningrad is a Russian territory on the Baltic sea, separated from mainland Russia by Lithuania. In 2018, Russia conducted a "major renovation" of a nuclear weapons site there, an expert said. In April, the Russian military announced that its Baltic Fleet in the Kaliningrad region conducted a "simulated missile strike exercise" using its "Iskander operational and tactical missile complexes." What they suggest, he told Insider, is that there is "an increased interest in Russian military movements by high-level decision makers in the United States." "The chances of his using nuclear weapons — at least tactical nuclear weapons — is going up by the day," Baer said.
The US should not overreact to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a new Costs of War Project report warns. The report underscores that the war has shown Russia's military is much weaker than previously thought. The report states that the "greatest threat of nuclear war could lie in the West's overreaction to Russia's aggression." "Rather, cognizant of Russia's conventional military weakness, the US military budget can instead be trimmed," it adds. He said the Russian military is "not nearly as powerful as we thought it was."
U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un smile during a meeting at the second U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi on Feb. 28, 2019. North Korean state media claimed Saturday that they had conducted a "very important" test at a rocket-testing site — the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground — that Pyongyang promised to dismantle after the first Trump-Kim summit in June 2018. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Twitter that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un risks losing "everything" if he acts in a hostile manner. To that, North Korean state media on Monday called Trump an "old man bereft of patience" and "heedless and erratic." Trump tweet: Kim Jong Un is too smart and has far too much to lose, everything actually, if he acts in a hostile way.
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