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US consumers are struggling with soaring credit card debt and rising interest rates. Credit card debt is now at record levels, and interest rates on those cards have soared. AdvertisementOf that total debt, credit card balances are growing the fastest. While this could create a parallel between today's credit card crisis and the mortgage crisis of 15 years ago, there are a few important differences today. AdvertisementStill, the rise in credit card debt and delinquencies could point to cracks in the strength of Americans' spending power.
Persons: Thomas Nitzsche, Gen Z, millennials, Nitzsche, Ginger Chambless, Chambless Organizations: Business, Money Management, MMI, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, Adobe Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Wells Fargo
Total credit card debt in the U.S. has reached a record high — but people are putting less money toward paying it down. Americans collectively hold $1.13 trillion in credit card debt as of the end of December, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Household Debt and Credit Report. Debt holders say they put around $363 per month toward their credit card debt in 2023, slightly less than the $430 they paid monthly in 2022. How interest rates and inflation impact credit card debtOne reason people are contributing less is due to record-high credit card interest rates combined with elevated prices for everyday goods, says Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. Making a plan to get out of credit card debt
Persons: Matt Schulz, Schulz, they've Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, LendingTree Locations: U.S, New York, York
Retail Sales Dive in January as Consumers Pull Back
  + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Tim Smart | Feb. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
Retail sales fell by 0.8% last month, far worse than expected, as consumers pulled back from their holiday spending and amid rising inflation and higher credit costs, the Census Bureau reported on Thursday. While overall retail trade sales declined, nonstore retailers were up 6.4 percent from last year. And consumers continued to spend on eating out, with food services and drinking places up 6.3% from a year ago. In January, retail sales rose by 2.34% from a year ago, according to the NRF/CNBC Retail Monitor powered by credit card tracking firm Affinity Solutions, but sales were down by 0.16% from December’s strong performance. “Notably, consumers are feeling strained by higher prices at the grocery store and beyond,” Patel said.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, , Jonathan Silver, Piyush Patel, , ” Patel, Organizations: Census, Federal, LPL, CNBC Retail Monitor, Affinity Solutions, Affinity, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Stocks and bonds both sold off as investors painfully recalibrated their expectations for five to six interest rate cuts this year to align more with the Fed’s projected three cuts. For example, Yardeni Research has pushed back against the idea that immediate rate cuts are necessary to avoid the Fed overshooting on slowing the economy. Stocks wouldn’t crater even if cuts were off the table completely in 2024, according to Bank of America, despite what Tuesday’s losses suggest. “No cuts could stymie a full-fledged recovery in more credit-sensitive areas,” wrote BofA strategists in a note on February 9. That means regional lenders will no longer have that crutch if they run into trouble after the program’s expiration on March 11.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Ed Yardeni, it’s, Marc Dizard, Allison Morrow, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Antoni Trenchev, ” Read, Alicia Wallace, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, Traders, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, US Treasury, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Yardeni Research, Bank of America, PNC Asset Management Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics, , New York Fed Locations: New York, pare, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst. I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? AdvertisementFor a time, it seemed like the housing market was doing a speedrun through Simonsen’s checklist. And even if the economy does take a turn, a run-of-the-mill recession probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the housing market. The housing market is far from balanced, but we’re at least heading in that direction.
Persons: doomsayers, I’ve, Redfin, you’ve, you’ll, Mike Simonsen, megalandlords, , Ian Shepherdson, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rick Palacios Jr, John Burns, ” doomsayers, might’ve, It’s, it’s, Logan Mohtashami, don’t, US homebuilders, “ It’s, ” Mohtashami, Selma Hepp, Fannie Mae, Palacios, ” Palacios, Mohtashami Organizations: Altos Research, Wall, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Housing Finance Agency Locations: Charlotte, North Carolina, Austin, Las Vegas, Miami, Boise , Idaho, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US
New York CNN —Americans who are already facing some financial difficulties are more intensive users of “Buy Now, Pay Later” offerings, with the majority of them tapping the short-term installment payment programs five or more times a year, according to new research released Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Researchers found that almost 60% of financially fragile consumers have used Buy Now, Pay Later five or more times a year, with nearly 30% of them conducting 10 or more of the BNPL transactions annually. “More-fragile households tend to use the service to make frequent, relatively small, purchases that they might have trouble affording otherwise,” researchers wrote in the post. Buy Now, Pay Later offerings have exploded in use and availability in recent years, allowing people to make (often short-term) installment payments on furniture, travel, concert tickets, food delivery and even the grocery store. )”Some of the greatest downside risks for consumers are when they stack multiple BNPL loans and then pay for those programs with a credit card, economists and researchers have previously told CNN.
Persons: , Wells Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Liberty Street Economics, , New York Fed, Federal Reserve, CNN Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
In today's big story, we're looking at what a hotter-than-expected inflation report means for markets and the econom y . That silver lining doesn’t address the elephant in the room: What does the latest CPI data mean for interest rates? AdvertisementMadison Hoff/Noah Sheidlower/Business InsiderThe hot inflation report comes just a few weeks after some industry experts felt the market was in a perfect position. Stubbornly elevated inflation means Powell might be less willing to cut rates and risk further fueling inflation. It’s particularly painful for smaller companies, which tend to carry floating-rate debt more susceptible to elevated interest rates.
Persons: , Angela Weiss, Insider’s Madison Hoff, BI’s Aruni Soni, Madison Hoff, Noah Sheidlower, we’ve, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jim Zelter, BI’s Yuheng Zhan, Alyssa Powell, Peter Thiel, bitcoin, Noah Berger Sam Altman’s, Jensen Huang, Altman's, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Bezos, Rob Dobi, doomsayers, Brace, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Dow Jones, Bank of America, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve Bank of New, BlackRock, Strategic Investors Group, BI, Fund, Reuters, Apple Vision, BI Sky, Employees, Cisco Systems, Sony, McLaren Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Dubai, Miami, Washington, New York, London
It turns out the Robinhood crowd was onto something when they piled into the stock market during the pandemic. As of 2019, people under 40 held 4.9% of total US wealth even though they’re 37% of the population. People over 54, who make up a similar share of the population, held 71.6% of total wealth. Nearing the end of 2023, under-40s controlled 6.7% of total wealth, while those over 54 had 72.8%. Now, the challenge is to try to keep at it, get some more luck in the stock market and, God willing, their own homes.
Persons: , Young, Millennials, Zers, they’re, , Nick Colas, , Colas, Ernst & Young, It’s, millennials, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, DataTrek, Ernst &, Bloomberg, Business Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, America
Dollar nears 150 yen ahead of US inflation test; bitcoin buoyant
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar flirted with the psychological threshold of 150 yen on Tuesday and held broadly steady ahead of a key reading on U.S. inflation due later in the day, while bitcoin hovered around the $50,000 mark for a second day running. The greenback last bought 149.39 yen, edging higher toward the closely-watched 150 level that analysts said would likely trigger further jawboning from Japanese officials in an attempt to support the currency. The projected rise in inflation three years from now dropped to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2020, from December's 2.6%. Analysts said the latest boost to bitcoin comes ahead of its halving event, which will cut the reward for successfully mining a bitcoin block in half. The expectation of rate cuts certainly helps, but it doesn't explain what's really set fire to bitcoin over the past four, five sessions," said IG's Sycamore.
Persons: pare, that's, Tony Sycamore, It's, Kyle Rodda Organizations: greenback, Bank of, IG, Federal Reserve Bank of New, U.S ., New Zealand, U.S, bitcoin Locations: Asia, China, Hong Kong, Bank of Japan, U.S, United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, December's, Europe
Read previewThe two executives who have ran BlackRock's influential consulting business since 2020 are each being promoted to new roles at the asset manager, a spokesperson told Business Insider, as BlackRock makes sweeping changes to its leadership ranks across divisions. The firm is naming Brandon Hall as the firm's deputy chief operating officer, reporting to Rob Goldstein, BlackRock's chief operating officer and a prominent leader at the company. He replaces Stacey Mullin, who had held the role since 2022 and was recently named chief of staff to BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink. He will report to Charles Hatami, who runs the group known as FSIG and heads up BlackRock's business in the Middle East. Martin Small, now the New York-based firm's chief financial officer, had previously held roles in FMA.
Persons: , Brandon Hall, Rob Goldstein, Stacey Mullin, Larry Fink, Ben Leax, Charles Hatami, FMA, Goldstein, Martin Small, Hatami, Mark Wiedman, Fink, Mark Erickson, Mark Azzopardi Organizations: Service, BlackRock, Business, Financial, Hall, BI, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: New York, FMA, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Credit expanded by just 0.4% in the month, according to the Federal Reserve’s monthly credit report released Wednesday. And it still leaves consumers with record levels of credit card debt. Of that, credit card balances grew by $212 billion to $1.13 trillion, while mortgage balances rose by $112 billion to $12.25 trillion. “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. Average card balances rose by 10% from a year ago to $6,360, a record.
Persons: , Wilbert van der, TransUnion, Michele Raneri, Scott Haymore, “ Deleveraging, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Auto, New York Fed, millennials, TransUnion, TD Bank Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Wells Fargo
Americans now owe $1.13 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday. In that case, credit cards are one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. The average credit card charges a record-high 20.74%, according to Bankrate. Millennials increasingly lean on creditStill, consumers often turn to credit cards, in part because they are more accessible than other types of loans. How to tackle credit card debt
Persons: Ted Rossman, Cardholders, Wise, that's Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, TransUnion
A new analysis from Liberty Street Economics finds younger Americans saw their net worths swell. That might be because their new pandemic stimulus let them invest more. Coming into the pandemic, Americans under 40 were holding just under 6% of all US wealth, according to Liberty Street Economics, even as they made up just under 40% of adults. And it was a boon: Americans under 40 — who comprise both Gen Zers old enough to be in the full-time workforce, and almost all millennials — saw their real wealth skyrocket by around 80%. AdvertisementThose younger Americans were willing to make riskier investments, as the analysis notes, perhaps due to just how far out they are from retiring.
Persons: , That's, Xers, Gen Zers, Rajashri Chakrabarti, Natalia Emanuel, Ben Lahey, Gen Z Organizations: Liberty Street Economics, Service, Liberty Street, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
Credit card balances increased by $50 billion, or roughly 5%, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the New York Fed found. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did, as well, and credit card rates followed suit. Why credit card debt keeps rising"Even though $1 trillion in credit card debt is a staggering number to wrap your brain around, the unfortunate truth is that it is only going to keep climbing from here," said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. Despite the steep cost, consumers often turn to credit cards, in part because they are more accessible than other types of loans, Schulz said. What to do if you're in credit card debt
Persons: millennials, Wilbert van der, Matt Schulz, Schulz Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
New York CNN —Americans — particularly Millennials and those with lower incomes — are becoming increasingly overextended financially: Credit card and auto loan delinquencies have not only surpassed pre-pandemic levels, they’re the highest they’ve been in more than a decade. Debt balances increased across the board, with credit card balances rising $50 billion to hit a new nominal high of $1.13 trillion (when adjusting for inflation, balances have yet to surpass the levels seen in 2008). “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research adviser at the New York Fed, said in a statement. “The delinquency numbers are pretty eye-opening, especially when it comes to credit cards,” Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, told CNN via email. Student loan delinquencies will not be reported to the credit bureaus until later this year.
Persons: ” Wilbert van der, Matt Schulz, , delinquencies Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, York Fed, New York Fed, CNN Locations: New York
Turkey's newly appointed central bank governor Fatih Karahan has his work cut out for him, named to the job by presidential decree over the weekend after the sudden resignation of his predecessor, Hafize Gaye Erkan. Previously the central bank's deputy governor, Karahan's resume features years spent in prominent American institutions and companies. Turkey's consumer price index print came out Monday showing a roughly 65% increase year-on-year for the month of January. Its central bank has made eight consecutive interest rate hikes since May 2023 — for a cumulative 3,650 basis points — in an effort to rein in soaring inflation. While painful for the country, investors and economists say the rate hikes have been necessary and that continuity in monetary policy priorities will engender confidence in the new central bank chief.
Persons: Turkey's, Fatih Karahan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Karahan's, , Karahan Organizations: University of Pennsylvania, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Columbia University, New York University, Amazon, greenback Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Turkish
ISTANBUL (AP) — Turkey has seen its fifth central bank leader depart in as many years as Hafize Gaye Erkan, the first woman in the top role, stepped down after just eight months in the job. Photos You Should See View All 45 ImagesHere are key things to know about the central bank shakeup and what it means for Turkey's battered economy:WHY IS THERE A NEW CENTRAL BANK LEADER? Erkan resigned after weeks of media stories about her father’s undue influence in the central bank’s Istanbul office. Previous changes in central bank leadership has seen Erdogan row back on efforts to bring inflation under control through interest rate hikes. He was brought in as the bank’s deputy head at the same time Simsek took over the Finance Ministry and Erkan was appointed to lead the central bank.
Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, — Erkan, , Fatih Karahan, Mehmet Simsek, Erdogan, Erkan, Karahan, Simsek's, Simsek, Liam Peach, Selcuki, ” “ It’s, ” Selcuki Organizations: , Finance, WHO, FATIH, Finance Ministry, University of Pennsylvania, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Amazon, Capital Economics, Istanbul Economy Research Locations: ISTANBUL, — Turkey, Turkey, Istanbul, Simsek, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Columbia, New York, Ankara
Turkey central bank chief quits, citing need to protect her family
  + stars: | 2024-02-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Turkish Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan answers questions during a news conference for the Inflation Report 2023-III in Ankara, Turkey on July 27, 2023. Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesTurkey's central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan resigned on Friday, citing a need to protect her family amid a "reputation assassination", and she was swiftly replaced by a deputy who is expected to carry on her tight policy stance. The first woman to lead the central bank, Erkan was its fifth governor in as many years. Since then the central bank had hiked its key rate to 45% from 8.5%. Last month, opposition newspaper Sozcu published an article about a central bank employee who said she was wrongfully dismissed from the bank by Erkan's father.
Persons: Turkish Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Erkan, Fatih Karahan, Erdogan, Sozcu, Erkan's Organizations: Turkish Central Bank Governor, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Official Gazette, Turks, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S
Read previewA longtime JPMorgan executive who has kept a low public profile while cultivating a reputation as a successful trader with a talent for managing risk is emerging as a contender to succeed Jamie Dimon as chief executive. His new position through the internal shuffle has vaulted him more publicly and prominently into the most closely watched succession race on Wall Street. JPMorgan executive David Hudson told the publication that he returned to JPMorgan after working at Nomura in 2010 "to work for Troy." Rohrbaugh's other stops at JPMorgan have been head of global markets and head of macro markets. A senior JPMorgan executive who works with Rohrbaugh recalled that time during the pandemic.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Troy Rohrbaugh, Jennifer Piepszak, Wall, Marianne Lake, Rohrbaugh, Goldman Sachs, Euromoney, Eddie Wen, David Hudson, He's, Gary Gensler's, Goldman, Cantor Fitzgerald, Tim Soulas, Cantor, Johns Hopkins, you've, he'll, Kaja Whitehouse, Alex Morrell Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Wall, Business, CIB, North America, Goldman, Nomura, Troy, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Global, Securities, Exchange, Banque Nationale, CooperNeff, Philadelphia Stock Exchange, World Trade Center, New York Daily News, Gilman School, Johns Hopkins University, Alpha Delta Phi, Baltimore Sun, Bloomberg Locations: Dimon, North, JPMorgan's, Canadian, Manhattan, Baltimore, Maryland, New York
A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Americans' inflation expectations have reached their lowest point in nearly three years. Economists say consumers appear to be responding to steadily slower inflation, higher incomes, lower gas prices and a rising stock market. What's more, paychecks have outpaced inflation over the past year, thereby easing Americans' adjustment to a higher cost of living. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesEven with the steady slowdown in inflation, prices are still nearly 17% higher than they were three years ago, a source of discontent for many Americans. It would be too painful.”Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and also a former Fed economist, acknowledged that "people are angry” about higher prices.
Persons: Joe Biden's, What's, , Grace Zwemmer, Marshall, , Dana Smith, Smith, Ryan Cummings, ” Cummings, Biden, Robert Shiller, David Andolfatto, “ Let’s, Claudia Sahm, Josh Boak Organizations: WASHINGTON, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal, Oxford Economics, Marshall, Trump, Democratic, Fed, University of Miami, Sahm Consulting Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Atlanta, Matthews , North Carolina, Charlotte, Washington
LegalShield's Consumer Stress Legal Index showed consumer financial stress is continuing to rise. LegalShield on Tuesday said its Consumer Stress Legal Index rose to 66.7 in December, up by 0.4 points from the prior month, showing that US consumers' financial stress is at its highest level since November 2020. AdvertisementUS consumer financial stress has soared to its highest in three years. "The rise in consumer stress in contrast to increased spending may point to an even sharper rise in household debt in the coming months." The increase in consumers' financial stress comes even as GDP growth has stayed strong, the labor market remains robust, and holiday retail spending was high.
Persons: , Matt Layton Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
“Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations,” Hsu added. “Like December, there was a broad consensus of improved sentiment across age, income, education, and geography,” Hsu said. There may, however, be some relief in 2024 as mortgage rates fall in line with reduced interest rates from the Federal Reserve. “Mortgage rates will continue to remain a wild card for home shoppers,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. "Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months."
Persons: Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, , Danielle Hale, Lawrence Yun Organizations: University of Michigan, Republicans, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, , Realtor.com, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s Locations: , Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The latest household spending survey shows Americans are feeling the impact of cooling inflation. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . That also tracks with rising and falling mortgage rates; in early 2021, younger Americans were especially eager to snatch up mortgages as rates remained near historic lows. And as boomers downsize, and their massive housing stock becomes available, it looks like Gen Z might be the ones in line to buy them up — not millennials.
Persons: , they're, it's, they'd, they'll, Gen Zers, Gen Xers, downsize Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
In December, the policymakers collectively forecast that they would cut their rate three times this year. The Fed prefers for inflation to be about 2%, which it sees as having little negative effect on the economy. Fed officials, he added, will want to see further evidence that inflation is still on track to 2% before embarking on rate cuts. Before Waller spoke, Wall Street investors had placed a 72% likelihood of a rate cut in March, based on futures prices. Waller's comments followed similarly optimistic remarks from John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, last week.
Persons: Christopher Waller, , ” Waller, Waller, Krishna Guha, Waller's, ” Guha, John Williams, Williams, Powell's, ” Williams Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Fed's, of Governors, Fed, Wall Street, Brookings Institution, , Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The latest Survey of Consumer Expectations Household Spending Survey, which is released every four months, also showed that households expect to spend less in the year ahead. The most recent reading is the lowest since December 2020 and is trending closer to the pre-pandemic reading of 2.4%. Survey respondents said they expected to spend less on everyday essential spending. The spending has kept the economy churning, but it’s also potentially coming at a cost: Americans have relied heavily on debt to make their purchases. As of December 2023, respondents said they’d allocate 38.4% of the unexpected income gain toward paying down debt.
Persons: it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Consumer Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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