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☆ Morning Bid: Dogged inflation shades rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But for most major stock and bond investments beyond the banking sector itself, the quarter remained a pretty upbeat one overall. "Inflation remains too high and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do," said Boston Fed chief Susan Collins. Futures markets are still broadly split on the chances of another Fed hike in May, but leaned a bit more on Friday to one more quarter point move. But core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, ticked up as forecast to a new record high for the bloc at 7.5%. Germany said import price inflation fell to its lowest in two years at 2.8% in February.

☆ San Francisco Fed leader Daly likely not a major player in SVB saga, officials say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"She was not in the chain of command," one former Fed bank president told CNBC. "Supervisory action taken by the San Francisco Fed staff would have been cleared by Washington." Daly and Fed board officials declined to comment for this report. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly reacts at the Los Angeles World Affairs Council Town Hall, Los Angeles, California, U.S., October 15, 2019. A review of what went wrong will likely point more heavily to Washington, its supervisory bureaucracy and the board leadership than to San Francisco.

[1/2] An employee holds the door open at the Silicon Valley Bank branch office in downtown San Francisco, California, U.S., March 13, 2023. Supervision of large banks like SVB, which was the 16th biggest U.S. bank at the time of its failure, is a shared responsibility of bank examiners employed by the regional Fed bank and Fed Board staff in Washington. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week he wants to identify "what went wrong here". Bank examiners at San Francisco Fed had flagged escalating problems at the Santa Clara-based bank suggesting issues with its ability to meet short-term cash needs like depositor withdrawals. As San Francisco Fed chair, Mehran headed the search committee that hired Daly for the top job at the bank in 2018.

☆ New York Fed board member warns of commercial real-estate risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The real-estate sector has also been hard hit by Fed rate rises and commercial real estate has also been hobbled by the shift away from in-office work during the pandemic. Rechler serves as what’s called a Class B director on the 12-person panel of private citizens who oversee the New York Fed. Each of the quasi-private regional Fed banks are also operated under the oversight of the Fed’s Board of Governors in Washington, which is explicitly part of the government. The boards overseeing each of the regional Fed banks are made up of a mix of bankers, business and non-profit leaders. Their most visible role is helping regional Fed banks find new presidents, although bankers who serve as directors are by law not part of this process.

☆ Real estate leader on NY Fed board warns on commercial real estate risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure investors about the soundness of the banking system, saying that the management of Silicon Valley Bank "failed badly," but that the bank's collapse did not indicate wider weaknesses in the banking system. "These are not weaknesses that are running broadly through the banking system," he said, adding that the takeover of Credit Suisse seemed to have been a positive outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee policy statement also said the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient." The much-anticipated rate cut by the Fed, which had delivered eight previous rate hikes in the past year, sought to balance the risk of rampant inflation with the threat of instability in the banking system. The banking sector has been in turmoil after California regulators on March 10 closed Silicon Valley Bank in the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.

The latest move to restore calm to restive regional bank stocks came as Pacific Western Bank (PACW.O), one of the regional lenders caught up in the market volatility, said it had raised $1.4 billion from investment firm Atlas SP Partners. While that deal brought some respite to battered banking stocks, First Republic (FRC.N) remains firmly in the spotlight. For now, the rescue of Credit Suisse appears to have calmed the worst fears of systemic contagion, boosting shares of European banks (.SX7P) and U.S. lenders (.SPXBK). Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'HEAD IN SAND'The wipeout of Credit Suisse's Additional Tier-1 (AT1) bondholders has sent shockwaves through bank debt markets. Seeking to boost confidence among investors rattled by its $3 billion Credit Suisse rescue, UBS said on Wednesday it would buy back 2.75 billion euros ($2.96 billion) worth of debt it issued less than week ago.

☆ Exclusive: Republican U.S. Senator Rick Scott, Democrat Warren unveil Fed oversight bill
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( David Morgan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Elizabeth Warren blamed the collapse of the two banks on regulatory failures at the U.S. central bank, which has operated up to now with an internal inspector general who reports to the Fed board. "Our legislation fixes that by establishing a presidentially-appointed, Senate-confirmed inspector general at the Fed, like every other major government agency," Scott said in a joint release with Warren. Warren said this month's banking upheavals "have underscored the urgent need for a truly independent inspector general to hold Fed officials accountable for any lapses or wrongdoing." She sits on both the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Finance Committee, and chairs subcommittees of both panels. Reporting by David Morgan and Heather Timmons; Editing by Scott Malone and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed’s self-scrutiny starts off on the wrong foot
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Banks with assets worth $100 billion or more face elaborate reviews, which involve a body called the Large and Foreign Banking Organization Management Group. Supervisors had previously noted, and reflected to the Fed group, which vets bank ratings, that SVB had made progress in tackling some of its weaknesses. The central bank doesn’t even acknowledge the existence of the LFBO Management Group on its public-facing website. Rather than just investigate itself, the Fed board could learn from the companies it regulates. SVB was part of the Fed’s “Large and Foreign Banking Organization” supervisory regime, which covers firms with more than $100 billion of assets.

☆ Republican US senator doubles down on call for tighter Fed scrutiny
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( David Morgan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The Federal Reserve, the world's largest and most powerful central bank, does not have a truly independent IG to investigate it. I'm fighting to fix that and will be introducing a bill soon - that I believe will have bipartisan support," Scott wrote. The online column marked the second time in two days that Scott has vowed to push for an independent Fed IG. He also informed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell of his plans in a letter on Monday. Republicans and Democrats in Congress have pledged tighter oversight of banking regulators following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which has been followed by billions of dollars in losses for financial stocks.

☆ US Sen. Scott pushes for new Fed inspector general, slams Fed over bank regulation,
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( David Morgan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Senator Rick Scott said on Monday he will introduce legislation to create an independent inspector general to oversee the Federal Reserve, as he called the U.S. central bank "unable or unwilling to properly regulate" banks in a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "I am proposing legislation to establish a presidentially-appointed and Senate-confirmed inspector general for the Federal Reserve," Scott told Powell in the letter. The Federal Reserve is responsible for supervising - monitoring, inspecting and examining - certain financial institutions to ensure that they comply with rules and regulations, and that they operate in a safe and sound manner. Scott's legislation stems from concern in Congress that the Federal Reserve's current inspector general is not independent enough to serve as a check on the central bank. Scott also urged the Fed chief to use the central bank's policy meeting this week to examine the bank failures and identify accountable Fed personnel.

The global lender said the agreement was expected to help unleash large-scale financing for Ukraine from international donors and partners, but gave no details. IMF staff currently expected the change in Ukraine's real gross domestic product for 2023 to range from -3% to +1%, Gray added. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal hailed the agreement and thanked the IMF for its support. If approved, as expected, the Ukraine program would be the IMF's biggest loan to a country involved in an active conflict. The fund last week changed a rule to allow new loan programs for countries facing "exceptionally high uncertainty", without naming Ukraine.

☆ AMERICAS Bank stress, bond volatility and disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But the implications of this sudden bout of financial instability - and its potential economic and policy fallout - were most clearly seen in the interest rate and bond markets. Implied terminal rates for the European Central Bank and Bank of England have been dramatically scaled back too - though one or two further hikes are still priced for those central banks. But the Fed rethink has led to seismic action on the U.S. Treasury market, with the biggest drop in 2-year Treasury yields on Monday since the stock market crash of 1987. Credit spreads in the corporate bond markets have also widened sharply as investors fear an economy-wide tightening of borrowing standards and financial conditions. It would certainly think twice about tightening policy again into this level of financial stress and bond market upheaval.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank stress, bond volatility and disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ CEO of failed Silicon Valley Bank no longer a director at SF Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 10 (Reuters) - The chief executive officer of failed Silicon Valley Bank, Greg Becker, is no longer on the board of directors at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The spokesperson declined to say how Becker exited the San Francisco Fed board. Becker served as a Class A director at the San Francisco Fed, one of three finance executives representing member banks in the San Francisco Fed district. The 12 regional Federal Reserve banks are quasi-private institutions overseen by the Fed in Washington. The directors of the Fed banks have been in the spotlight in recent years as the central bank has faced criticism that bank directors lacked racial and gender diversity and were too weighted towards the business and banking community.

☆ Morning Bid: EU inflation risks loom large for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Asian markets had thought to bask in the glow from Wednesday's radiant PMI data from China, and the region in general. Markets are now leaning toward a peak of 5.50%-5.75%, compared with 5.0% just a month ago. That leaves a lot riding on what EU (HICP) inflation figures for February show later on Thursday. Median forecasts are for an annual figure of 8.2%, but risks are on the upside following the surprises from France, Spain and Germany.

At its latest meeting, the Fed laced its statement and minutes with a rider about cumulative tightening and uncertain lags. The gist of the argument is that the Fed doesn't deliver credit directly to the wider economy - banks and financial markets do. But few seem to doubt that these policy lags have shortened considerably over the decades. Showcasing the study in December, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly adopted a more dovish slant on the gap between the funds rate and tightening financial markets. "But investors should remain attentive to the occasional episodic disconnects observed between Fed guidance and some prominent indices of financial conditions," Clarida told clients.

☆ Two Fed measures see notable recession risk despite strong data
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Meanwhile, a New York Fed measure, updated earlier this month, flags a 57.1% recession probability by January 2024, up from the 47.3% chance seen in December. Another commonly tracked measure - the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes - has been inverted for even longer, but San Francisco Fed economists have identified the 3-month versus 10-year spread as having the stronger relationship with recessions. Fed officials have said so far that they see slow growth this year and no recession, although a number of policymakers view it as a real risk. The Fed's own internal approach to making sense of the economic implications of the yield curve remains unsettled. A paper by Fed Board economists last year downplayed the implications of inversion.

☆ Morning Bid: War and PCE
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith world headlines focussed on first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflationary consequences that pounded world markets last year still smoulder. Curiously, the initial energy shock from the Ukraine war is already less of a problem than the change in pricing behaviour that it seeded - especially in services still distorted by the pandemic, in corporate margin building and rising wage settlements. But it's the pickup and stickiness in underlying "core" prices, excluding energy and food, that is irking the central banks and the Federal Reserve most of all. Alongside another tight U.S. weekly jobs report, markets got another glimpse of those price pressures on Thursday. And increasingly buoyed by the still intense geopolitical fallout from a year of the war in Ukraine, the dollar pushed higher yet again.

☆ Analysis: With record diversity on their boards, Fed bank chiefs see lower chances of policy error
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed bank directors generally stay out of the limelight, but many U.S. central bankers view them as a critical resource. "I think the probabilities are far higher of achieving that gentle transition, that smoother transition," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters in an interview. This year, of the 108 spots on the 12 Fed bank boards, 44% are filled by women, and 41% by people of color, a review of the data shows. Still, a majority of the Fed's economists are white men, as are its top two monetary policymakers: Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Hispanics and Latinos, Menendez notes, are a fast-growing segment of the population but are underrepresented at the Fed at all levels, including on Fed bank boards.

☆ Morning Bid: Growth trumps rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While there were some questions about seasonal adjustments in the data, economists were impressed that sales growth was pretty broad based and have scrambled to re-crunch first quarter U.S. output forecasts as a result. There may be a more mixed picture from Thursday's data slate on producer prices, housing starts and weekly jobless claims. Even though rates futures and Treasury yields ticked back a bit today, pricing now has Fed policy rates moving as high as 5.25% and staying above 5% all year. And while full-year earnings growth estimates for S&P500 companies have sunk to zero, consensus forecasts are now pencilling in a rebound of almost 12% next year. Uncertainty about the pace of growth and annual tax receipts in April makes it difficult for government officials to predict the exact "X-date", it said.

☆ Brainard's move to the White House leaves a big gap for Biden to fill at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In her more than eight years as a Federal Reserve official, Lael Brainard was an influential voice, particularly for the side that favored keeping monetary policy loose and interest rates low. "Brainard's departure from the Fed leaves a dove-sized hole in its monetary policy," Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in its daily newsletter Wednesday. Indeed, Brainard's influence only accelerated the longer she served as a Fed governor. Her subsequent appointment in 2022 as vice chair solidified her influence, installing her as part of the "troika" of policy-directing power that includes current Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Some candidates outside the Fed ranks, according to Guha, include Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Janice Eberly and Christina Romer, all of whom served under former President Barack Obama (and his vice president, Biden).

2 role vacant just as the central bank approaches a decision about when to stop raising interest rates. Brainard's arguments may not have been relevant to the decisions the Fed faces in the next few weeks. Heidi Shierholz, president of the labor-affiliated Economic Policy Institute, said it was "unbelievably important" that Biden find someone to fill Brainard's role. Administration officials gave no immediate sense of how soon Biden may name a new Fed vice chair, though outside analysts and commentators were already putting names in circulation from what's considered a deep bench of economists affiliated with Biden's Democratic party. The vice chair plays a particularly important role, typically reserved for somebody with a PhD in economics who can speak with technical authority about Fed policy and decisions.

☆ Factbox: Some potential successors to Brainard at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, analysts and Fed observers are already swapping notes on potential replacements for Brainard at the Fed from a bench of economists aligned with Biden's Democrats, who control the U.S. Senate. MARY DALYDaly is president of the San Francisco Fed, ascending to that position in 2018 after 22 years at the regional Fed bank, including a stint as its director of research. Furman has been a prominent, Twitter-savvy commentator on macroeconomic and Fed policy. He has a PhD from the University of Virginia and served as a Fed economist for a little over a year in the mid-1990s. With a PhD from Stanford University, he's held staff positions at the Fed board and the San Francisco Fed, where he also served as president before moving to the New York Fed role in 2018.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell confesses 'This time it's different'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Any fear of a radical Fed rethink on the back of the jobs numbers seemed wide of the mark. "This cycle is different from other cycles...it has just confounded all sorts of attempts to predict," Powell admitted. And many think last week's jobs report should similarly be treated with care. They included a minimum tax for billionaires and a quadrupling of the tax on corporate stock buybacks. Brands, Eaton Corp, etcUS terminal rateReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

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