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President-elect Donald Trump's flurry of announcements regarding Cabinet nominees has left investors with one unexpected headache: a suddenly cloudy picture of who will take the all-important position of Treasury secretary. One somewhat new name to emerge into the Treasury conversation is former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. However, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Warsh also has emerged as potential Treasury contender. Yields took another leg higher on Monday amid the Treasury uncertainty. However, Fundstrat research chief Tom Lee said that once the Treasury nominee issue is settled, that should restore some market confidence.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Scott Bessent, Sen, Bill Haggerty, Howard Lutnick, Elon Musk, Powell, Stocks, Kevin Warsh, Jerome Powell, Warsh, Evercore, Tom Lee, Lee Organizations: Key Square Group, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Trump Trade, Trump, Wall Street
Strategist Michael Wilson sees the S & P 500 reaching 6,500 in 2025. The sector is already up 6.8% since the Nov. 5 election, outperforming the other 10 S & P 500 sectors. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield is up more than 80 basis points (0.8 percentage point) since the Fed began cutting rates. While Wilson's base case sees the S & P 500 rising to 6,500, his most optmistic bullish scenario takes the benchmark all the way to 7,400 — 26% above Friday's close. However, his initial 2024 S & P 500 target proved too conservative at 4,500.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Wilson, Donald Trump, Baird Organizations: Fed Locations: Washington, Friday's
Rowan and Warsh shake up Treasury raceFew of the unfilled positions in Donald Trump’s cabinet are as important as Treasury secretary. Allies of two candidates, Howard Lutnick, the transition co-chair, and Scott Bessent, a top economic adviser, publicly stumped for them this weekend. Musk threw his support behind Lutnick over the weekend, calling Bessent “business as usual,” an especially cutting criticism in the Trump camp. Loeb backed Bessent, arguing that choosing Lutnick might rattle investors, including in the $28 trillion market for Treasury bonds and notes. That said, Bessent is also being floated for positions such as chair of the White House’s National Economic Council.
Persons: Rowan, Warsh, Donald Trump’s, cloudier, Howard Lutnick, Scott Bessent, Marc Rowan, Kevin Warsh, Elon Musk, Dan Loeb, Musk, Bessent, Trump, Loeb Organizations: Times, Apollo Global Management, Fed, Treasury, White, Economic Council
Yun: Reducing spending brings down interest rates
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYun: Reducing spending brings down interest ratesLawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, explains that reducing the national deficit could help lower mortgage rates by impacting bond yields. Although the Fed has cut rates, 10-year yields remain high due to budget deficits.
Persons: Lawrence Yun Organizations: Yun, National Association of Realtors
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFmr. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles on what a second Trump term means for banksRandal Quarles, Former Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the impact of Trump's reelection on banks.
Persons: Randal Quarles Organizations: Trump
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the morning trading on November 07, 2024 in New York City. Stock futures are little changed Monday night as investors await key earnings from retailers and chipmaker Nvidia this week. S&P futures shed about 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures traded marginally lower. About 93% of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results so far, with three-quarters exceeding expectations and more than 60% beating revenue estimates, according to FactSet. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%, snapping a four-day losing streak, while the S&P 500 added about 0.4%.
Persons: Stocks, Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nvidia, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Trump Media & Technology Group, Walmart, Blackwell, Dow Jones, Morgan Stanley Investment Locations: New York City
That's due to a recent contraction in the money supply, which preceded past downturns, he told NYSE TV Live. The US economy is still likely to slow into a recession next year — and Trump's election victory may have just made the economic outlook even more challenging, according to top economist Steve Hanke. AdvertisementM2, one class of the money supply, shrank from mid-2022 to March 2024, according to Federal Reserve data. The M2 money supply started to re-expand this year, rising 2.47% year-per-year at the end of September. Trump's protectionist economic policies also impose a "big negative" for the economy, Hanke said.
Persons: Steve Hanke, downturns, Johns Hopkins, who's, That's, Hanke, Trump Organizations: NYSE TV, NYSE, Federal Reserve, Real Locations: Atlanta
Soon, Trump’s ability to fix America’s affordability crisis will collide head-on with another, perhaps more prominent, campaign trail promise: Mass deportations. And perhaps no industry relies on undocumented workers more than the food and agriculture industries. “The only question is how high prices will go.”Zandi noted that food prices could also be pushed higher by another element of the Trump agenda: Massive tariffs. The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment about how mass deportations would impact food prices. The current immigration system does not allow for green cards for farm workers.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, you’re, , Chuck Conner, don’t, Conner, Fred Leitz, Leitz, Mark Zandi, , ” Zandi, Trump’s, It’s, Rick Naerebout, that’s, Biden, Scott Bessent, ” Bessent, Axios, Trump “, David Paul Morris, Zeke Hernandez, “ It’s, Hernandez, Chloe East, Letiz, Naerebout, “ aren’t, ” Robert Lynch, Lynch, , ” Naerebout Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, National Council of Farmer Cooperatives, US Department of Agriculture, Center for American Progress, Moody’s, Trump, United, Idaho Dairymen’s Association, Wall, Bloomberg, Getty, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Immigration, University of Colorado Denver, The Hamilton, Brookings Institution, Washington College, American Locations: New York, United States, Michigan, Idaho, San Francisco, Brookings, Maryland
AdvertisementLast week, Trump was said to be deciding between two leading candidates for Treasury Secretary. Here are the top picks Trump is reportedly now considering for Secretary of the Treasury. Kevin WarshKevin Warsh, center, is rising as one of the candidates for Trump's Treasury Secretary. AdvertisementMarc RowanMarc Rowan isn't said to be actively lobbying for Treasury Secretary, but his aides have reportedly been in touch with the Trump administration. Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesBessent, 62, was one of the original frontrunners for Trump's Treasury Secretary.
Persons: Trump, Kevin Warsh, Marc Rowan, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Florida Sen, Marco Rubio, Janet Yellen, he's, it's, Kevin Warsh Kevin Warsh, Tasos Katopodis, Warsh, Morgan Stanley, George W . Bush, Axios, Jerome Powell, Marc Rowan Marc Rowan isn't, PETER, Getty Images Rowan, Rowan, Rowan isn't, Howard Lutnick Howard Lutnick, ANGELA WEISS, Cantor Fitzgerald, Lutnick, Linda McMahon, He's, Vance, Elon Musk, Musk, Scott Bessent Scott Bessent, Drew Angerer, Bessent, George Soros, Soros, Breitbart, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, MAGA Organizations: Treasury, White, Department of Health, Human Services, State Department, Trump, Street, New York Times, Trump's, Federal Reserve Board, Getty Images, Apollo Global Management, Apollo, Times, Bloomberg, Madison, Garden, AFP Lutnick, WWE, Hamptons, Apple, World Trade, Key, Capital Management, Reuters Locations: Florida, America, Lago
Gold gains 1% as dollar rally stalls
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices rose on Monday after last week's sharp declines, as a rally in the dollar paused, while market participants awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path. Gold prices rose on Monday after last week's sharp declines, as a rally in the dollar paused, while market participants awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path. Spot gold firmed 1% to $2,587.49 per ounce by 0150 GMT, after falling to its worst week in more than three years on Friday. "Gold prices are due for a slight recovery following recent bout of hefty sell-offs and we may expect some drift higher with some rollover in the dollar," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. This has not been fully priced in by markets yet, so any need for recalibration may still pose an obstacle for gold."
Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Joe Biden's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Strong U.S Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Russia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed to ease policy unless there is an upside surprise in jobs market, says strategistIain Stealey, the international chief investment officer of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, discusses the path of U.S. monetary policy.
Persons: Iain Stealey Organizations: Fed, Morgan Asset Management
After announcing a swathe of names for his Cabinet, president-elect Donald Trump appears to be conducting auditions for his Treasury Secretary. AdvertisementHere's some of the best commentary we've seen about the race to be the next Treasury Secretary. Blowups somewhere are inevitable, and a Treasury secretary needs the experience to deal with the fallout in a way that reassures markets. There could now be a contest for Treasury Secretary where … the no1 job is reassuring the markets. In return he might be rewarded with the job of treasury secretary.
Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Marc Rowan, Kevin Warsh, Cantor Fitzgerald, Trump, Rowan, Apollo, Jay Powell, Warsh, Powell, hasn't, Kyle Bass, Mike Allen, You've, Ian Bremmer, Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, Biden, Mr Lutnick, Mr Trump, … Mr Lutnick, , Mr Lutnick's, John Thune, Jeff Stein Organizations: Key Square Capital Management, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve, New York Times, The Times, Times, Hayman Capital Management, X, Trump's, Treasury, CNBC, Trump, Fed, White, National Economic Council, Eurasia Group, Bloomberg, The, The Washington Post Locations: X U.S, Eurasia, Washington, United States, The Washington
Dollar sitting pretty, yen bears wary of Bank of Japan hawks
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Yen bears were tense in case Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda used a speech later Monday to flag a possible rate hike in December, in part due to the weakness of the currency. Markets imply around a 55% chance of a quarter-point rate hike to 0.5% when the BOJ meets on Dec. 19. Against a basket of currencies the dollar held at 106.730, having touched a one-year top of 107.07 on Friday. The rally has coincided with a savage swing in 10-year Treasury yields, which have climbed 70 basis points since the start of October, fuelling a 5.4% rise in the U.S. dollar index . Analysts generally assume Trump's touted policies of tariffs, reduced immigration and debt-funded tax cuts will be inflationary, so limiting the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Donald Trump's, Katsunobu Kato, Jonas Goltermann, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald, Scott Bessent Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Japanese Finance, Capital Economics, Trump, Federal Reserve, Central Bankers Locations: U.S, Japan, Canada
Artificial Intelligence is reshaping the job application process, simplifying some aspects — and creating new potential frictions in others. As the use of AI in hiring and applying increases, many job seekers are having to go to extra lengths to stand out. Using the tools, job seekers can save hundreds of hours — and apply to up to thousands of jobs a day, according to the services. A premium membership starts at $38 a month, according to the website — a cost AI Apply notes is much lower and more accessible than the cost of a career counselor. But job seekers are not the only party using AI in the application process, according to a recent University of Washington study.
Persons: Jeff, ” Maddie Macho, Chantal Cowie, , Cowie, Teal, Claude, ” Cowie, , Aidan Cramer, Watchdogs, Cramer, ” Cramer, we’ve, OfferGoose, Mike Peditto, Ruth Edwards, “ It’s, ” Edwards, Peditto, it’s Organizations: Gemini, NBC News, of Washington, Fortune, Pew, ” Boston, New, Tiger Locations: Boston, New York
5 things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead
  + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +10 min
October retail sales, released Friday morning, came in slightly ahead of expectations, indicating a 0.4% monthly increase, versus a 0.3% increase expected. Disney's reported strong earnings and its stock advanced more than 16% for the week as a result. In the week ahead, we will get earnings from three Club names, including the highly anticipated quarter from Nvidia, and a couple of housing market-related updates. The Street is looking for Nvidia sales of $33.1 billion in its fiscal Q3 and earnings of 75 cents per share. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Donald Trump, Friday's, Jerome Powell, Powell, That's, YTD We're, we're, Jensen, Trump, Nvidia's, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Angela Weiss Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Fed, Disney, Depot, Nvidia, TJX Companies, Home Goods, Blackwell, Palo Alto Networks, Home Depot, Stanley, Walmart, Viking Holdings, Sonoma, WSM, Baidu, PDD Holdings, Deere & Co, Warner Music Group, Intuit, Ross Stores, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty Locations: Maxx, U.S, China, Palo, VIK, Williams, New York City
AdvertisementInflation's downtrend may not be as straightforward as some investors think, according to Charles Schwab. Immigration reform could mean higher labor costs," the note added. Labor costs risingLabor costs have accelerated in recent months, with unit labor costs among all workers in the business sector rising to 3.4% year-over-year in the third quarter, according to Federal Reserve data. Markets are beginning to dial back expectations for further rate cuts in response to inflation concerns," Schwab strategists said. Charles Schwab, Citi Economic Surprise Index"Stronger growth suggests that the Fed may not lower short-term rates as much as anticipated just a few months ago.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Donald Trump, Trump, Schwab, It's Organizations: Trump, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Federal Reserve, Unit, Bloomberg, Treasury, Business, Citi
Small businesses are hurting at the worst possible time
  + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
That’s because small businesses typically having tighter profit margins compared to behemoths like Walmart and Amazon, so they feel the sting of rising costs more acutely. The Small Business Index shows that 8 in 10 small retail businesses rely on holiday sales to meet their annual profit goals. If only it were that simple for small businesses. John Waldmann, chief executive of Homebase, a payroll software provider for more than 100,000 small businesses, said Enjou Chocolat’s dilemma is something he hears all the time. “Small businesses are really reticent to increase prices, so when they do, it’s because they have to,” Waldmann said.
Persons: Washington CNN — Enjou, Mark Chinsky, , ‘ that’s, you’ve, ” Chinsky, that, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, we’re, , Thomas Barkin, “ Price, Joe Raedle, John Waldmann, Enjou, ” Waldmann, “ They’re, Scott Olson, there’s, Sarah Jordan, ” There’s, Bill Dunkelberg Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Walmart, ” Richmond Fed, Target, , Board, Wrigley Field Locations: Morristown , New Jersey, America, Miami, Chicago
Now that the election is over, and a change at the FTC seems highly likely, Wall Street is getting ready for a new era. "In my opinion, bank M & A has reopened for every bank absent the globally systemically important banks," Mills told CNBC. DFS 1M mountain Shares of Discover Financial rallied sharply after the election of Donald Trump. The merger between those two companies was blocked by a judge and then dropped this past week , but both companies could be players moving forward. There's still a populist tone in the Trump campaign … and enforcement, in my opinion, is not going to go away.
Persons: Trump, Lina Khan, Carlyle, Harvey Schwartz, Morgan Stanley, Stephanie McCann, McDermott Will, Emery, Wolfe, Naturium, Goldman, Ed Mills, Raymond James, Mills, Donald Trump, Joe Biden's, Matt Gaetz —, , There's, Kyle Healy, Alston, Michael Lynton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Trade, FTC, Federal, CNBC, Wolfe Research, Amazon, Electronic Arts, Zoom Video Communications, EA, Activision Blizzard, Capital, Discover Financial Services, DFS, Discover Financial, Spirit Airlines, Frontier, JetBlue, Regulators, Trump, Bird, Warner Music Locations: Washington
.SPX 1M mountain S & P 500, 1 month The S & P is still about 3-4% above levels where chart readers would start to get more concerned about the underlying trajectory. Even in Friday's 1.3% slide in the S & P 500, only two-thirds of all stocks were down on the day and the equal-weight S & P was off a modest three-quarters of a percent. It makes sense that the market wasn't able to summon a sustained thrust of exuberance after the election anxiety evaporated, given the somewhat demanding starting point. A more mature economic and risk cycle and vulnerability to higher rates among smaller, lower-quality stocks mean they aren't likely to lead from here, Pies says. Is the market presciently foretelling an unleashing of transactional fervor that will return Wall Steet's middlemen to their former glory?
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Russell, Jay Powell, Warren Pies, Goldman Organizations: Nasdaq, KBW, ICE, Trump, Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank, 3Fourteen Research, Wall Street Locations: Friday's
CNN —Bela Karolyi, the legendary and controversial Romanian American gymnastics coach who helped lead Mary Lou Retton, Nadia Comaneci and Kerri Strug to Olympic gold, has died, USA Gymnastics announced. Still, Bela Karolyi remained unapologetic to the end for the methods he used to blaze a path to sports glory. And by his senior year, he was coaching the school’s women’s gymnastics team, whose star Marta Enoss would become his wife and professional ally. “I think he was learning gymnastics with us.”At age 14, Comaneci famously scored the first “perfect 10” in Olympic gymnastics. “Prior to entering the Bela Karolyi camp, I knew one thing; Bela was my bus pass to the Olympics,” Okino wrote in 2001.
Persons: CNN — Bela Karolyi, Mary Lou Retton, Nadia Comaneci, Kerri Strug, Karolyi, Marta Karolyi, Bela Karolyi, , ” Bela Karolyi didn’t, Marta Enoss, That’s, , Marta, Bela, ” Comaneci, Comaneci, Nicolae Ceaușescu’s, Karolyi’s, USA's Kerri Strug, Susan Ragan, Dianne Durham, Kim Zmeskal, Strug hobbled, USA’s, Strug, ” Karolyi, Larry Nassar, , Nassar, Retton, ” Retton, , Betty Okino, ” Okino, “ Karolyi, goddam Bela, Dominique Moceanu, ” Moceanu, Moceanu, Nadia Comăneci, ” CNN’s Lindsey Knight Organizations: CNN, USA Gymnastics, Texas, Romanian, Romania College of Physical Education, Eastern Bloc, Guardian, Rocky Mountain News, University of Oklahoma, USA, Olympic, US, Los Angeles Games, Team USA, International Gymnastics Hall of Fame, Orange County Register, , Team Training, US Olympic Committee, Locations: Romanian American, Texas, Montreal, Romanian, New York, America, Houston, American, Atlanta, Romania, United States, California
Here are seven ways a Trump administration could affect your personal finances. During Trump’s first term, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act temporarily expanded the child tax credit from $1,000 to $2,000. “He will deliver.”TaxesThe Trump administration is expected to focus on extending tax cuts introduced by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to expire in 2025. The Trump administration wants to “promote choice and competition” and make health care more affordable, according to his policy platform. The Trump administration will likely cut red tape to encourage business and real estate developments.
Persons: Donald Trump, he’d, Trump, JD Vance, Maria Castillo Dominguez, , Karoline Leavitt, Vance, , ” Leavitt, Alan Auerbach, Social Security Trump, Biden, Berkeley’s Auerbach, Joe Biden’s, ” Auerbach, “ They’re, , Trump’s, Auerbach, Sarah Lueck, ” Trump Organizations: CNN, Social Security, Jobs, Valoria Wealth Management, Trump, Urban, Brookings Tax, Tax, UC Berkeley, Center, enrollees, Republicans, Public, Consumer, National Retail Federation, Health, Republican, Center for Budget, Medicare, it’s, Housing
U.S. consumers collectively owe an eye-popping $1.17 trillion in credit card debt — a record — according to estimates the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released this week. But while there are still major financial risks for carrying hefty balances, the researchers said the data suggests that “rising debt burdens remain manageable” for the typical consumer. Prices are still going up, but they’re not going up as fast, and incomes are once again going up at a faster rate than expenses. Earnings growth has averaged 6.2% per year since the pandemic began, compared to the cumulative debt balance rising 4% per year. “Especially for higher-risk borrowers, credit card and auto loan delinquencies are the highest in a dozen years, and that’s with unemployment at 4%.
Persons: , Donald Trump, they’re, Greg McBride What’s, TransUnion, That’s, , Greg McBride, , McBride Organizations: ’ paychecks, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, Commerce Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bankrate Locations: ’ paychecks . U.S
Stocks tumbled on Friday as the post-election rally fizzled and investors fretted over the path of interest rates. The S&P 500 slipped 1.32% and closed at 5,870.62, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.24% to 18,680.12. Declines in pharmaceutical stocks weighed on the 30-stock Dow and broader S&P 500, with Amgen down about 4.2% and Moderna off by 7.3%. The information technology sector of the S&P 500 was the worst performing corner of the market, down more than 2% as Nvidia, MetaPlatforms, Alphabet and Microsoft tumbled. The S&P 500 posted a weekly loss of 2.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid about 3.2%.
Persons: Stocks, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Tesla, , Kristy Akullian, , Jerome Powell, Susan Collins, Dow Jones Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Moderna, Department of Health, Human Services, P Biotech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Trump Trade, ” Traders, Federal, Boston, Street Locations: Americas, BlackRock
Don't expect 'huge swings' on mortgage ratesElection uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said. Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a "bumpy" or "volatile" path over the next year. "Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025," she said. For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said.
Persons: Freddie Mac, it's, Jessica Lautz, Lautz, Jerome Powell, Robert Dietz, Jessica Lautz Jessica Lautz, Jeff Ostrowski, Jacob Channel Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Treasury, Trump, Federal, CNBC Locations: U.S
Gold traded little changed on Friday, but was set for its worst week in more than three years, hurt by a stronger U.S. dollar amid expectations of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,569.69 per ounce by 0308 GMT after a five-session slide. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation justify caution in cutting rates quickly. With a quiet U.S. calendar next week, gold could rebound, potentially retesting $2,600 level, Simpson said. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $30.52 per ounce, platinum edged up 0.1% to $940.68 and palladium added 0.5% to $946.00.
Persons: Gold, Donald Trump's, Fawad, Jerome Powell, Trump, Matt Simpson, Simpson Organizations: U.S ., Trump, Forex.com
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