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☆ The Fed is likely to disappoint markets with just one more rate cut this year amid global inflation, BlackRock CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the Fed will cut rates just once more this year. The market sees two more 25 basis point cuts before the end of the year. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve will disappoint markets by cutting interest rates just one more time in 2024, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said. Fink said the Fed will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year amid a rise in global inflation. The central bank kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo 50 basis point cut last month.

Persons: Larry Fink, —, Fink, " Fink, we're, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: BlackRock, Fed, Service, Reserve, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs Act, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Locations: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

☆ How the Markets Are Gaming the Election With One Week to Go
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow the Markets Are Gaming the Election With One Week to GoHenrietta Treyz of Veda Partners and Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors discuss whether the markets are misreading the polls ahead of the election, and which sectors could be in favor depending on the outcome.

Persons: Henrietta Treyz, Ben Emons Organizations: Veda Partners, FedWatch Advisors

☆ 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.3% as investors look to key data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over 2 basis points at 4.304%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last up by less than 1 basis point at 4.146%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Tuesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to trade at multi-month highs as investors looked to upcoming economic data. On Tuesday investors will be watching out for fresh consumer confidence insights and home price data as well as the latest JOLTS job openings figures. Those are the first of a series of labor market related data releases slated for the week.

Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Traders, Fed

☆ Gold slips as dollar firms; market eyes crucial U.S. data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A one kilogram gold bar sits on top of silver bars. Gold prices fell on Monday as the U.S. dollar held firm, while investors awaited U.S. economic data for fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,733.01 per ounce, as of 0232 GMT. A stronger dollar makes gold less appealing for other currency holders. Gold hit a record high of $2,758.37 on Wednesday, driven by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties.

Persons: Tim Waterer, CME's, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ali Khamenei, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: U.S ., Federal, U.S, KCM, Fed, Iranian Locations: U.S

☆ The one big fear that could upend the bull market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A chain reaction sparked by continued inflation could put the bull market to rest, according to Trivariate Research. As the bull market enters its third year, investors are wondering how much more room there is to run before a pullback is due. Now, Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 95% likelihood of another drop to the borrowing costs at the central bank's November gathering, according to CME's FedWatch tool. In 2021 and 2022, Parker said there was a "strong and statistically significant relationship" between Fed funds futures and the price-to-earnings multiple on growth stocks. Though that connection now looks different, the Morgan Stanley alum said he would be "surprised if multiples did not compress meaningfully" if the expectation for the Fed funds rate rises from 3.5% to 5% or above.

Persons: Adam Parker, Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Parker, Morgan Stanley, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Tudor Jones, Dow Jones Organizations: Research, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Dow

Mortgage rates for October 26, 2024, are hovering in the mid-6% range, according to Zillow data. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. High mortgage rates pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

Persons: they'll, you'll, they've, Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal, Fed, Traders, Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, Mortgage, Association Locations: Chevron

☆ 10-year Treasury yield dips after scaling 3-month highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was one basis lower at 4.19% after breaching 4.25% on Wednesday. The 2-year Treasury was fractionally lower at 4.063%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased slightly Friday after hitting a three-month high this week. Others have stated the need to be "cautious and deliberate" and "patient" with further cuts. Market pricing puts a 97% probability on the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Persons: Beth Hammack Organizations: Treasury, Traders, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed

☆ Dollar stands tall on bets for slower Fed cuts, potential Trump win
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. This week, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he would prefer to "avoid outsized moves", and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker backed "a slow, methodical approach" to further easing. The dollar has now "punched through key technical resistance levels" against the yen, "opening the door for higher levels", Catril said. Although opinion polls indicate a neck-and-neck race with Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, cryptocurrency-prediction exchange Polymarket has seen a sharp rise in bets for a Trump win.

Persons: Donald Trump, Jeffrey Schmid, Patrick Harker, Rodrigo Catril, Catril, Trump, Kamala Harris, Christine Lagarde, Mario Centeno Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Kansas, Philadelphia Fed, Treasury, National Australia Bank, UST, Republican, Democratic, Trump, of, Traders, European Central Bank, Wednesday Locations: Japan, Sunday's

☆ Where Vanguard sees opportunity to earn income right now
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

With the Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle now underway, income investors may want to take a closer look at their portfolios. In this environment, Vanguard likes higher-quality, fixed-income assets. However, with high yield credit, Vanguard is focusing on bottom-up security selection due to the dispersion among issuers. CCC-rated bonds gained 12.5% year to date, as of Sept 30, versus the 4.3% return in AA credit, according to Vanguard. Individual investors can get access to corporate credit through mutual funds or exchange-traded funds comprising investment-grade or high-yield bonds.

Persons: Sara Devereux, Devereux, Colleen Cunniffe, Cunniffe, outsized Organizations: Federal, Vanguard, Fed, Investor, Securities, Exchange Commission, Fund Locations: Utilities

☆ Fed outlook pushes dollar to 2-1/2 month peak; yen under pressure
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar hovered at a 2-1/2-month peak on Wednesday as investors adjusted bets toward a gradual reduction of interest rates while keeping an eye on a close presidential election race. The yen remained under pressure as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields marched higher, pushing it to a three-month low. That less dovish outlook for the Fed has helped buoy Treasury yields. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was last up 0.11% at 104.18 after ticking up to 104.19, its highest since Aug. 2. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields kept the heat on the yen which sank to a three-month low of 151.72 against the greenback.

Persons: Matt Simpson, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, there's, Index's Simpson, Komeito, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Republican, Reuters, Democratic U.S, Markets, Trump, greenback, Liberal Democratic Party, of, European Central Bank Locations: Harris, U.S, Japan

☆ Gold hovers near record high on safe-haven demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices rose on Tuesday and hovered near a record high hit in the previous session amid uncertainties around the U.S. election, ongoing Middle East tensions, and expectations of central banks' interest rate cuts. Gold prices rose on Tuesday and hovered near a record high hit in the previous session amid uncertainties around the U.S. election, ongoing Middle East tensions, and expectations of central banks' interest rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,729.91 per ounce by 0303 GMT. Gold hit its all-time high of $2,740.37 on Monday and has gained about 32% so far this year. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to a 12-week high in the last session, while the U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday.

Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: U.S, Fed, Citi Research Locations: tailwinds, Israel, Lebanon, Gaza

☆ Dollar steady at August high on U.S. rates view, election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will take a measured approach to interest rate cuts, while a close battle in the upcoming U.S. election kept investors on edge. The U.S. dollar clung to a two-and-half-month high on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will take a measured approach to interest rate cuts, while a close battle in the upcoming U.S. election kept investors on edge. Four Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support on Monday for further rate cuts, but appeared to differ on how fast or far they believe any cuts should go. With the U.S. election just two weeks away, the rising odds of former President Donald Trump winning the Nov. 5 election are boosting the dollar, since his proposed tariff and tax policies are seen as likely to keep U.S. interest rates high. The yen on Tuesday was at 150.57 per dollar, hovering close to the two-and-half-month low of 150.88.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Harris, Komeito Organizations: U.S, Reserve, Fed ., Federal, Traders, Fed, Trump, PineBridge Investments, Liberal Democratic Party Locations: U.S, Treasuries

Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury was about two basis points higher at 4.047%. After jumping 12 basis points on Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose nearly three basis points to 4.21%, a level it has not reached in three months. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued its gains on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials urged caution on the path of interest rate cuts. It is a quiet week on the data front, but a busy week for Federal Reserve commentary, with an array of policymakers delivering speeches. Rates have actually increased since the Fed cut rates by a half point one month ago.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Dallas Federal, Kansas, Traders Locations: U.S

☆ The economic 'no landing' could drive the S&P 500 to a 13% gain in 2025, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The bank is adding to the growing numbers of forecasts for a "no landing" of the US economy. Inflation will remain low enough to leave room for the Fed to cut interest rates, boosting stocks. The job market is proving resilient, despite tighter financial conditions and higher interest rates. AdvertisementCooling price growth sets the stage for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, UBS said, which is bullish for stocks. The strategists added that while investors may see some volatility ahead of the November election, it's unlikely to interrupt more positive market catalysts.

Persons: — Organizations: UBS, Fed, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New

☆ The stock market is primed for more gains ahead, Canaccord says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The recent strong run in stocks could be just the beginning, according to Canaccord Genuity. The recent rally comes as the current bull market turned two years old. Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Welch thinks more gains could lie ahead. .SPX mountain 2022-10-12 SPX during bull market "The current two-year-old bull market remains below the median in both percent gain and duration, suggesting the upside has further room to run," he wrote Monday. The latest market run also comes as investors pore through third-quarter results.

Persons: Canaccord, Michael Welch, Welch, Goldman Sachs, Warby Parker, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowWhat Are Today's Refinance Rates? Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are around 6.15%, according to Zillow data. In September, 30-year refinance rates averaged 5.89%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.19%. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. Now that the Fed has cut rates, mortgage rates may not drop much in October.

Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Traders, Zillow, Fed Locations: Chevron

☆ Price of gold is proving an unstoppable force lately
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold recently regained momentum after the Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with a half-percentage point rate cut last month. However, the latest upturn comes despite rebounds in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar too, which might be expected to take the wind from gold's sails. Higher yields typically make gold less attractive, as the metal doesn't offer any yield. The 10-year Treasury yield has soared to 4.08% from around 3.7% over the past month. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against the euro, Japanese yen and others, is up nearly 3% over the past month.

Persons: Gold, Andrew Brenner, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, NatAlliance Securities, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury Locations: NatAlliance

☆ Markets are now trading with certainty, says Fedwatch Advisors' Ben Emons
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets are now trading with certainty, says Fedwatch Advisors' Ben EmonsBen Emons, FedWatch Advisors chief investment officer and founder, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the state of the markets, trading into year-end and more.

Persons: Ben Emons Ben Emons Organizations: Fedwatch, FedWatch Advisors

☆ Why we're downgrading our solar stock Nextracker, plus the chipmakers bounce back
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Semiconductor stocks are rebounding in reaction to a beat-and-raise earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor . NEXTracke r: Shares of solar stock Nextracker are having another rough day, dropping roughly 3%. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. A logo of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is seen during the TSMC global RnD Center opening ceremony in Hsinchu on July 28, 2023.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, there's, we've, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Amber Wang Organizations: CNBC, Semiconductor, Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, Apple, Taiwan Semi, ASML Holdings, Treasury, Atlanta, JPMorgan, Nextracker, Microsoft, Republican, Netflix, Procter, Gamble, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Center, Afp, Getty Locations: Taiwan, Hsinchu, AFP

☆ Small caps just hit levels not seen in nearly three years
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | Kavitha Shastry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Small-cap stocks are looking very good right now. Lower rates can boost smaller companies by allowing them to borrow money for cheaper and expand their businesses. Smaller companies are more vulnerable to economic cycles. Despite this recently strong performance, small caps are still lagging their large-cap counterparts for the year. To be sure, some on the Street are pointing to another driver for small caps: the potential of a Trump victory on Election Day.

Persons: Russell, IWM, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Cantor, Howard Lutnick Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Insight Enterprises, Trump Locations: China

☆ Rates won't be cut at an aggressive pace — here's how to position, according to strategists
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. interest rate cuts are unlikely to move at an aggressive pace, say market watchers. The Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo 50 basis-point rate cut in September — but subsequent ones will be milder, they said. They highlighted the better-than-expected September jobs report, renewed worries around inflation, rising yields and an economy that's still relatively strong. How to position In that scenario — and with inflation expected to continue being sticky, it's important that investors still have exposure to commodities, said Landsberg. Christopher of Wells Fargo said if interest rates moderate and earnings are stronger than expected, market performance will broaden out further.

Persons: —, Paul Christopher, CNBC's, Adam Coons, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Landsberg, Christopher, Wells Fargo, Luis Alvarado, Alvarado Organizations: Fed, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Winthrop Capital Management, Wealth Management Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S

☆ Aussie hit by China stimulus scepticism; US dollar firm on Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Aussie dropped as much as 0.51% to $0.6669, the lowest since Sept. 12, before changing hands down 0.38% at $0.6678 as of 0133 GMT. The New Zealand dollar sank as much as 0.69% to $0.6041, a level last seen on Aug. 19. China will hold a press conference on Thursday to discuss promoting the "steady and healthy" development of the property sector. The dollar was little changed at 149.135 yen , not far from Monday's high of 149.98 yen, the strongest since Aug. 1. The euro edged 0.05% lower to $1.08875, and earlier touched $1.0882, matching the low from Tuesday, which was the weakest level since Aug. 8.

Persons: There's, Ray Attrill, there's, Attrill Organizations: New Zealand, National Australia Bank, Statistics, U.S, Traders, Fed, European Central Bank Locations: New Zealand, Beijing, China, Statistics New Zealand

☆ UBS sees S&P 500 soaring to 6,400 by the end of 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Strategist Jonathan Golub raised his 2025 S & P 500 target to 6,400 from 6,000 in a note to clients released Tuesday. "UBS economists forecast 3.7% nominal GDP in 2025 (1.6% real), roughly in line with long-term averages," he said. Golub also noted that a "sharp decline in Fed Funds will likely increase profit margins by 20 [basis points] via lower interest expense." The Fed lowered its benchmark fed funds rates a half a point, to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, in September. Bottom line: Stocks could consolidate to end 2024 before scaling new heights in the new year, based on UBS' outlook.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Stocks, Golub doesn't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Monday's

☆ Fed Governor Waller says 'more caution' needed on rate cuts after data showing a hot economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed Governor Christopher Waller says recent data shows the Fed should ease more cautiously. The Fed cut rates by a50-basis points last month and is expected to make a smaller cut next month. AdvertisementWaller said recent data, though, shows an economy that's still hot. He pointed to recent data on employment, inflation, income and gross domestic product. Waller said he will be watching closely for any further data that shows the Fed should ease less aggressively.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, —, Waller's Organizations: Service, Stanford University, Fed

☆ Gold prices flat as investors await fresh impetus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold was flat on Tuesday as investors await fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's stance on U.S. interest rate reductions for further direction on bullion prices. Gold was flat on Tuesday as investors await fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's stance on U.S. interest rate reductions for further direction on bullion prices. "Gold prices have been surprisingly resilient, refusing to succumb to a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said. Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for "more caution" on interest rate cuts ahead. While, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said more rate reductions likely lie ahead for the U.S. central bank as the 2% inflation target looms into sight.

Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Fed, Fed Bank of Minneapolis, U.S, London Locations: China

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