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☆ Asian stocks sag with dollar as hawkish Fed spurs recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Asian stocks sagged on Thursday, tracking declines on Wall Street, after the U.S. Federal Reserve projected higher interest rates for a longer period. U.S. Treasury yields remained depressed and the curve deeply inverted as traders continued to fret that tighter policy will trigger a recession. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) eased 0.17%, while South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) dropped 0.92% and Australia's stock benchmark (.AXJO) fell 0.4%. "The weakening in risk assets and the flattening of the curve suggest that recession fears may be the dominant driver of market price action." The IEA raised its 2023 oil demand growth estimate to 1.7 million bpd for a total of 101.6 million bpd.

☆ Morning Bid: Still a ways to go?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

For markets navigating the barrage of major central bank interest rate rises this week - there's a ways to go, much as Fed chief Jerome Powell insists about the tightening cycle. Central banks in the Philippines, Norway and Taiwan also raised rates by 50bp, 25bp and 12.5bp respectively. But the policy message all around is that more pain is coming unless there's further evidence of sky-high inflation rates returning to 2% targets. Peak Fed rates implied in futures markets on Thursday remain 20bp below that official Fed projection and year-end market pricing is some 70bp below it. The economy there lost more steam in November as factory output slowed and retail sales extended declines, both missing forecasts and clocking their worst readings in six months.

☆ The ECB could be uncomfortable with market reaction to Fed announcement, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe ECB could be uncomfortable with market reaction to Fed announcement, strategist saysFrederik Ducrozet, global strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, discusses the rate hike announcements by the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England.

☆ Inflation is falling. But the days when prices rose just 2% may never return
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Energy prices are pulling back because of fears of a global recession, and the price to ship a container across the ocean has plummeted. In the United States, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 7.1% in November, the smallest increase since December 2021. Prices rose by 10.7% in the United Kingdom last month, down from 11.1% in October, according to data published Wednesday. But even if this bout of inflation has peaked, economists are warning the world may not return to simpler days when prices barely rose at all. At least for now, supply of critical minerals can’t keep up, which could force prices higher at times.

[1/2] The Wall Street entrance to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is seen in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. U.S. stocks edged higher in early trading, indicating a cautious start on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.55%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.27%, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 0.07%. The U.S. consumer price index for November is due on Tuesday, when a slowdown in core annual inflation is anticipated. Two-year yields, which typically move in step with interest rate expectations, rose just 1.4 basis points to 4.342%.

☆ "Small joyless flows" as investors sell stocks and cash - Bofa
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Investors sold stocks and bought gold in the week to Wednesday, withdrawing $5.7 billion from equity funds, BofA Global Research said on Friday, a week of "small, joyless flows", as markets position for the approaching end of the Fed's rate hiking cycle. Both stocks and cash recorded outflows of $5.7 billion, in the week to Wednesday, while bond outflows stood at £0.1 billion and gold funds got a $65 million boost, BofA said, citing EPFR data. "Weekly Flows: inflow to gold funds of $65mn, outflow from bonds $0.1bn, cash $5.7bn, & stocks $5.7bn…small, joyless flows," BofA said. BofA private clients put cash into equities for the first time in 11 weeks, and bought bonds for the 41st week in a row, the report said. BofA analysts expect the U.S central bank to stop hiking rates in March 2023, but they say the uncertainty in the market is justified.

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☆ Morning Bid: Crude deflation?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With everyone on Wall St seemingly hand wringing about stagflation next year, the price of crude oil has plummeted by up to 10% this week to its lowest since early January - offering some relief in an otherwise murky outlook. Crucially for inflation worriers, year-on-year crude price gains - which were running at 50-100% between February's Ukraine invasion and midyear - have now fallen to just 4% and could soon be a disinflationary force in consumer price baskets. But, contrary to many prior energy market assumptions, the impact of Monday G7's Russian oil price cap at $60pb for seaborne crude is anchoring prices and underscoring massive discounts for Russia oil - already selling for as low as $55pb. The Bank of Canada is the latest on the list on Wednesday and expected to hike rates by another half point, as are the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England next week. European and Asia bourses - even Shanghai and Hong Kong despite the lifting COVID restrictions - were in negative territory too.

☆ Take Five: Ready for that Santa rally?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/FRANC DISCUSSIONCredit Suisse executives may need to sit down for an honest chat about whether the bank's latest strategic plan is enough to rally investors. And with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England meeting in coming weeks, the drama isn't over. For some, the notion of peak rates, peak inflation and China's reopening is reason enough for cheer. After months of pain inflicted by high inflation and aggressive rate increases, perhaps it's time to bring on the Santa rally. That wouldn't necessarily cut short a rally in Aussie dollar, which recently has been driven more by China's re-opening hopes and a retreating greenback than the RBA.

Emerging economies started hiking before the Fed, and quickly, partly because their currencies had weakened against the dollar, raising funding costs and importing inflation. That had quickly fed through to prices, especially energy and some food commodities that are generally traded in dollars. "Total reserves in the emerging markets had fallen by over $400 billion, down 7%, this year as of September." ECB & BOJAt the ECB, the Fed's signal bolsters an already strong case for more measured rate hikes after back-to-back 75 basis point moves and eases growth concerns. Slower Fed rate hikes also help the Bank of Japan, whose ultra-low rates have been criticised for fuelling a sharp yen decline that inflates the cost of imports.

Oct 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeeverFirst Australia, now Canada. The Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised rates by 50 basis points, less than the 75 bps markets had expected. "We are getting closer to the end of this tightening phase," BOC chief Tiff Macklem said, citing recession fears. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are up next with policy decisions in the next 48 hours. But if the remaining heavyweight U.S. earnings this week beat forecasts and the ECB and BOJ play ball, it could have further to run.

☆ Wonder where the economy is heading? Pay close attention to earnings
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Economic bellwether FedEx (FDX) stunned Wall Street last week with a massive earnings warning and tepid outlook for the global economy. Still, investors remain nervous about the health of the railroad business, a sign of the jitters about the overall economy. Most of Corporate America operates on a calendar year schedule for earnings, which means they will report third quarter results in October. That would be the worst quarter for earnings since a 5.7% decrease in the third quarter of 2020, when the economy was reeling from Covid-imposed lockdowns. That adds to the risk that a global spike in rates will lead to a further slowdown in earnings, consumer spending and the overall economy.

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