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That deterioration, as well as increased polarization in the country’s political climate, was visible in the Jan. 6 insurrection, which the agency highlighted in meetings with the Treasury ahead of the downgrade. "You have the debt ceiling, you have Jan. 6. Higher interest rates are also likely to make the country's debt burden heavier to sustain, he added. The latest debt ceiling suspension, agreed in June, will last until early 2025, when another political debate around the borrowing limit is likely, he added. "That would just highlight the real political polarization and the kind of deterioration in governance that we've already noted ... to have a two-notch downgrade would be pretty harsh."

Persons: Donald Trump, Leah Millis, Fitch, Richard Francis, Francis, Janet Yellen, we've, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Fitch, Reuters, AAA, Republicans, Hearst, Standard, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, States, United States

U.S. Capitol police stand outside the Capitol building as the Senate votes on debt ceiling legislation to avoid a historic default at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., June 1, 2023. Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills. With the downgrade it becomes the second major rating agency after Standard & Poor’s to strip the United States of its triple-A rating. Investors use credit ratings to assess the risk profile of companies and governments when they raise financing in the debt capital markets. Other analysts had pointed to the risk that another downgrade by a major rating agency could affect investment portfolios that hold top-rated securities.

Persons: Evelyn Hockstein, Fitch, Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, Biden, Karine Jean, Pierre, Keith Lerner, Raymond James, Ed Mills, Mohamed El, Davide Barbuscia, Jyoti Narayan, Lewis Krauskopf, Saeed Azhar, Megan Davies, Arun Koyyur, David Gregoiro, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Capitol, U.S, REUTERS, White, AAA, Standard, Democratic, Republican, Treasury, Advisory Services, ” Treasury, Fitch, AA, Queens ' College, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, States, United States, Atlanta, New York, Bengaluru

With its latest 25 basis point interest rate increase now in the books, the Fed has raised the benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points since March 2022 to a level last seen before the 2007 housing market crash in a fight to bring down inflation. Still, some fixed income investors have remained on edge over how long the Fed can keep interest rates at restrictive levels without sparking an economic downturn. Meanwhile, Fed funds futures traders saw increased probability of another interest rate increase in September. To be sure, investors had badly overestimated the chances for recession at the beginning of this year and could be wrong again. Over the past year the unemployment rate has remained stubbornly low and growth has run consistently above trend.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Gurpreet Gill, Goldman Sachs, Powell, Kristy Akullian, It's, Adam Hetts, Janus Henderson, Mike Sanders, Blair Shwedo, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Barclays, BlackRock, Investment, Treasury, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Madison Investments, U.S . Bank, Thomson

Global Head of Fixed Income Group Sara Devereux said on Thursday the probability of another interest rate increase by the Fed this year stood at 50%. Beyond that, the U.S. central bank was likely to maintain a "hawkish hold" on rates. "We don't think they're going to cut rates anytime soon ... the Fed may have more work to do." Vanguard, which manages $8 trillion in assets, said its base case scenario remained for a shallow recession in 2024 as higher interest rates hit the economy. "The downside risk ... is the Fed overshoots and they drive us into a deeper recession."

Persons: Sara Devereux, Jerome Powell, Devereux, Davide Barbuscia, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, Vanguard, Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York

July 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy may ultimately skirt a recession, but it's felt like one for months at Jon Ferrando's 103 RV dealerships. "Our industry has always been a little challenged on forecasting around demand," said Jason Lippert, CEO of LCI Industries, a large supplier of parts to the RV industry that is also based in Elkhart. "If I was just looking at RV data, I would be screaming recession," said Michael Hicks, an economics professor at Ball State University in Indiana who tracks the industry, adding that pullbacks in RV shipments have signaled every U.S. recession since 1981. "We expect in the second half of this year shipments (of RVs) will start to increase again," Geraci said. Gregg Fore, an RV industry consultant who previously ran an RV parts supplier, said half the new inventory at some dealers he works with are 2022 models.

Persons: it's, Jon Ferrando's, Ferrando, Michael Happe, Eden, Jason Lippert, Michael Hicks, RVIA, Monika Geraci, Geraci, Gregg Fore, Tyler Hermon, Timothy Aeppel, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Winnebago Industries, Federal Reserve, RV Industry Association, Thor Industries, LCI Industries, Ball State University, Dealers, Thomson Locations: U.S, Fort Lauderdale , Florida, RVs, United States, Elkhart , Indiana, Eden Prairie , Minnesota, Elkhart, Indiana, North America, RVing

The U.S. Treasury started rebuilding its account through T-bills after the government's debt ceiling was suspended last month. Since early June, the Treasury General Account at the Fed has increased by about $460 billion. "The risk of reserve scarcity in the near-term has receded as more cash has left the RRP facility," said Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy at TD Securities USA. "However, money market funds shifted their allocation out of the RRP facility into outright purchases of T-bills and private repo markets," they said. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Gennadiy Goldberg, Davide Barbuscia, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: YORK, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Fed, Federal, Securities USA, Citi, repo, ON, Thomson Locations: U.S

But as local economic development officials worked with Ford and other prospective investors, it became clear they needed a much bigger footprint. The rest has been earmarked by economic development officials for suppliers and other developments. In Marshall, residents petitioned to hold a referendum on the project, gathering over 800 signatures in a city of 6,800. She believes factory workers will move to Marshall to work for Ford. He notes that the factory he works at, in nearby Battle Creek, has struggled to find skilled workers.

Persons: Fred, Joan Chapman, Ben Klayman MARSHALL, Fred Chapman, ”, That’s, Chapman, Joe Biden, Gabby Bruno, Glenn Kowalske, “, Ford's Bruno, Ford, Bruno, CATL's, James Durian, Durian, Sue Damron, Marshall, he’s, Timothy Aeppel, Ben Klayman, Dan Burns, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Ford Motor Co, Ford Motor, Census, Ford, Amperex Technology Co, Amazon, Marshall, Economic Development Alliance, Thomson Locations: Marshall Township , Michigan, U.S, Mich, Marshall, Kalamazoo, New York City, China, Calhoun County, Battle, Mexico, New York, Marshall , Michigan

The yield curve's inversions deepened in June after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would likely raise rates two more times this year. Stronger-than-expected economic data on Thursday backed expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer. Treasury yields- which move inversely to prices - moved up, with 10-year and two-year yields hitting their highest since March 10 and 9, respectively, while some curve inversions intensified. The spread between one- and 30-year Treasury yields was as wide as 153 basis points on Wednesday, its biggest gap since 1981. Key areas of the U.S. economy, including housing and labor, have proven resilient despite higher rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Rilling, Huw Roberts, Davide Barbuscia, Chuck Mikolajczak, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes, Aurora Ellis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, U.S, Treasury, Federal, Allspring Global Investments, Quant, Thomson Locations: U.S

An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones, reflecting bets that the central bank will need to cut rates to buoy an economy hurt by higher borrowing costs. The yield curve's inversions deepened in June, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would likely raise rates two more times this year. "Keeping rates higher for longer increases the chance that we move into a downturn," said Janet Rilling, a senior portfolio manager and the head of the Plus Fixed Income team at Allspring Global Investments. The curve between five- and 30-year Treasuries , meanwhile, touched a low of -20.7 on Wednesday - the most inverted since March. Key areas of the U.S. economy, including housing and labor, have proven resilient despite higher rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Rilling, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: YORK, U.S, Treasury, Federal, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S

Powell's comments did little to sway investors in futures markets tied to the Fed’s policy rate, which on Wednesday reflected bets for only one additional rate increase this year, followed by cuts in January. An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones. It suggests that while investors expect interest rates to rise in the near term, they believe higher borrowing costs will eventually hurt the economy, forcing the Fed to later ease monetary policy. "With a steeply inverted curve we see a lot of yield and a lot of attractive opportunities in the front end," said Steve Hooker, portfolio manager of Newfleet Asset Management. Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer of PGIM Fixed Income, said inflation remained way too high to anticipate rate cuts any time soon.

Persons: Jerome Powell hasn't, Powell, Powell's, Roger Hallam, Steve Hooker, ” Hooker, Greg Peters, We're, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Federal, Fed, Vanguard, Silicon Valley Bank, Commonwealth Financial Network, Newfleet Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Silicon, U.S

☆ Timiraos: It will take a lot for the Fed to not raise interest rates next month
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTimiraos: It will take a lot for the Fed to not raise interest rates next monthNick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent at the Wall Street Journal, discusses Fed Chair Jay Powell's testimony before Congress.

Persons: Nick Timiraos, Jay Powell's Organizations: Fed, Wall Street

As a result, he is staying away from assets that could be hit hard if market stress suddenly increases, such as small cap stocks. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% on Wednesday after shuffling between gains and losses. The S&P 500 is up 15% this year, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) has gained 30%. Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management, believes a burgeoning stock market rally could loosen credit conditions, threatening to exacerbate consumer prices - an undesirable outcome for the inflation-fighting Fed. The S&P 500 is up 14% from a low reached after the banking crisis in March.

Persons: ”, Josh Emanuel, Emanuel, James St . Aubin, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mark Heppenstall, Josh Jamner, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: YORK, Federal, Wilshire, Nasdaq, Sierra Investment Management, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fed, Penn Mutual Asset Management, ClearBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S

NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. investor Stanley Druckenmiller, chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Duquesne Family Office, said on Wednesday that he still expects a hard landing for the U.S. economy, as inflation persists, but offered a positive outlook for Nvidia. Still, the investor is bullish on artificial intelligence, mainly on chipmaker Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O). "Unlike crypto I think AI is real," he said. "If it's as big as I think it is, Nvidia is something we're going to want to own for at least two or three years. Reporting by Carolina Mandl and Davide Barbuscia in New YorkOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Carolina Mandl, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: YORK, Duquesne Family Office, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Nvidia Corp, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York

"The risk of a downgrade is exacerbated every time Congress flirts with the debt ceiling," said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management, who sees another downgrade as still a risk. Economic damage from the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles had a chilling impact. Rating agency Fitch and other smaller agencies recently placed the U.S. credit rating under review. Reuters GraphicsCASCADE EFFECTInvestors use credit ratings as one of the metrics to assess the risk profiles of governments and companies. In the 2013 debt ceiling crisis the legislative standoff did not cause a rating downgrade, although Fitch placed its rating under review.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Calvin Norris, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, Fitch, William Foster, ”, Andy Sparks, Olivier d'Assier, Peter Crane, MSCI's Sparks, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, White, REUTERS, Senate, Republicans, Aegon Asset Management, AAA, Government, Office, The, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Moody’s Investors Service, Applied Research, Crane, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Washington, APAC, Qontigo

Reflecting investor optimism about passage, the cost of insuring exposure to a U.S. debt default dropped on Tuesday, but some concerns remained because of the tight timeline and opposition from some lawmakers. Last week, credit rating agency Fitch placed its "AAA" rating of U.S. sovereign debt on watch for a possible downgrade, citing downside risks including political brinkmanship and a growing debt burden. In a previous debt ceiling crisis in 2011 rating agency Standard & Poor's cut the U.S. top 'AAA' rating by one notch a few days after a debt ceiling deal, citing political polarization and insufficient steps to right the nation's fiscal outlook. "Even if a U.S. default is averted, a ratings downgrade could still happen," Vishwanath Tirupattur, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note on Sunday. Some also fear a debt ceiling resolution could only provide short-term relief to markets because the U.S. Treasury is expected to quickly refill its account with bond sales, sucking out hundreds of billions of dollars of cash from the market.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Fitch, Raymond James, Ed Mills, Alex Anderson, Vishwanath Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley, Spokespeople, Blair Shwedo, Davide Barbuscia, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Pete Schroeder, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, Democratic, Republican, U.S . Treasury Department, BMO Capital Markets, AAA, Moody's, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: U.S

May 28 (Reuters) - Good news of a tentative deal for the U.S. debt ceiling impasse may quickly turn out to be bad news for financial markets. "That's where the debt ceiling matters." In that case, "the impact on broader financial markets would likely be relatively muted," Daniel Krieter, director of fixed income strategy, BMO Capital Markets, said in a report. Some bankers said they fear financial markets may not have accounted for the risk of a liquidity drain from banks' reserves. Bankers put it to hope that the debt ceiling impasse would be resolved without significant dislocation to markets, but warn that's a risky strategy.

Global supply chains grew overwhelmed as they struggled to deliver. But Prange said most of his supply chain had stabilized - meaning he was able to get most of what he needed - by the end of 2021. "One of the headwinds is inflation," said Kevin Austin, the supply chain chief for Toyota Motor North America. Meanwhile, the global supply chain snarls of the pandemic have diminished. The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index ticked down to a reading of -1.32 in April, compared to a revised -1.15 in March.

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - As talks over raising the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling intensify, Wall Street banks and asset managers have begun preparing for fallout from a potential default. Citigroup (C.N) CEO Jane Fraser said this debate on the debt ceiling is "more worrying" than previous ones. U.S. government bonds underpin the global financial system so it is difficult to fully gauge the damage a default would create, but executives expect massive volatility across equity, debt and other markets. Banks, brokers and trading platforms are prepping for disruption to the Treasury market, as well as broader volatility. Bond trading platform Tradeweb said it was in discussions with clients, industry groups, and other market participants about contingency plans.

Spreads on U.S. one-year credit default swaps (CDS) - market-based gauges of the risk of a default - widened to 172 basis points, an all-time high, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, up from a close of 163 on Tuesday. The cost of insuring U.S. debt against default for five years stood at 73 basis points, up from 72 basis points on Tuesday, touching the highest level since 2009. Due to the mechanics of a potential CDS payout, the probability of a default implied by the CDS could be lower than what current levels suggest, analysts said. As of last week, the spread on one-year CDS implied a 3.9% probability that the U.S. would default, according to MSCI Research analysts. "We found a lower market-implied default probability than in 2011 ... despite much wider CDS spreads today," they said.

☆ Regional banks were 'naked when the storm hit them', says Odeon Capital's Dick Bove
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRegional banks were 'naked when the storm hit them', says Odeon Capital's Dick BoveNick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent, and Dick Bove, Odeon Capital Group chief financial strategist, join 'Last Call' to discuss the ongoing regional banking crisis, a possible sale from Pacific West Bancorp, and the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Odeon Capital Group's Dick Bove
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Odeon Capital Group's Dick BoveNick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent, and Dick Bove, Odeon Capital Group chief financial strategist, join CNBC's Leslie Picker and 'Last Call' to discuss the ongoing regional banking crisis, a possible sale from Pacific West Bancorp, and the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike.

Things are calmer now, but seven traders who spoke to Reuters, some heading rates desks at big global banks, said March's mayhem continues to reverberate, with fears of further volatility in traditionally stable bond markets muting activity. Investors rely on government bond markets to translate central bank interest rates into a stable benchmark for borrowing costs, from corporate loans to household mortgages. Yield shifts in government bond markets have become bigger - occasionally hitting 20 bps a day - since central banks started ramping up rate hikes last year to tame surging inflation. For some, March's turmoil is the latest sign of how post-2008 regulations constraining dealer balance sheets are affecting bond market functioning. Others noted markets were leaving behind an era of low volatility for good as rates rise.

Paradoxically, however, in previous debt ceiling crises investors have sought protection from the economic risks of a default by piling into U.S. long-term Treasuries. "If you go through a debt ceiling crisis, it's a global crisis ... And the flight to quality ends up being in U.S. Treasuries," Rieder told Reuters in an interview. "The debt ceiling is certainly part of it," he said, adding other recent steps were an overall reduction of risk in the portfolio, including in credit. The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a Republican bill to raise the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and slash spending on Wednesday. "It's so hard to foresee how far down the road this debt ceiling is going to take us," Rieder said.

CHICAGO, April 26 (Reuters) - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the odds that the U.S. government could face a technical debt default due to legislation around its borrowing limit were at around 2%-3%, but that any default would be fixed quickly. A standoff between Republicans and Democrats over raising the U.S. borrowing limit has started to impact money markets, with incoming tax receipts recently indicating that the deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion borrowing limit could be sooner than expected. "I think the odds on a technical default associated with the debt limit legislation over the next few months are 2% or 3%, and if it happens it will be repaired fairly quickly," Summers said at a Morningstar investment conference in Chicago. On the other hand, the White House has called on Congress to raise the debt limit without conditions, as it did three times under Biden's Republican predecessor, Donald Trump. JPMorgan warned last week that there was a "non-trivial" risk of a technical default on U.S. Treasuries, and that the debate over the debt ceiling would likely run "dangerously close" to its final deadline.

CHICAGO, April 26 (Reuters) - A U.S. default is highly unlikely, but negotiations around the debt ceiling are expected to be protracted, Daniel Ivascyn, chief investment officer at U.S. bond giant Pacific Investment Management Co (PIMCO), said on Wednesday. Speaking at a Morningstar investment conference in Chicago, Ivascyn said prolonged uncertainty around the U.S. debt ceiling could be a headwind for the economy, tightening credit conditions and accelerating the current economic slowdown. On Wednesday, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the odds that the U.S. government could face a technical debt default were at around 2% to 3%, but that any default would be fixed quickly. "You're introducing a debt ceiling standoff at a time where there's just lots of other uncertainty," Ivascyn said, adding this could translate into a further reduction in risk-taking from households and corporates, which could exacerbate economic weakness. Ivascyn said he was seeking to maintain high liquidity to withstand potentially more volatility in financial markets caused by the borrowing limit standoff.

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