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☆ Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Olena Harmash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

In previous refugee crises, for example in Syria, refugees' desire to return home has faded with time, UNHCR studies show. Conscription-aged men are restricted from leaving Ukraine, so working-aged women, and children, make up the majority of refugees. Ukraine's population problem goes beyond millions of refugees. A census in 2001 - the country's only so far - recorded a population of 48.5 million. Demographer Libanova estimated the population at between 28 million and 34 million at the start of 2023 in parts of the country controlled by Kyiv.

Persons: Korzh, Volodymyr Kostiuk, Kostiuk, It's, Dmytro Tsygankov, Ella Libanova, Libanova, Ksenia Karpenko, Karpenko, Corina Rodriguez, Catarina Demony, Mike Collett, White, Frank Jack Daniel Our Organizations: United Nations, UNHCR, Kyiv, for Economic Research, Political, for Economic, MEN, National Academy of Science, European Commission's, Research, The, Economic Strategy, Reuters, Thomson Locations: KYIV, Europe, Kyiv, Portugal, Ukraine, Lagoa, Syria, Ukrainian, Moscow, Russia, Crimea, Belarus, Russian, Tarragona, Spain, Madrid, Barcelona, Lisbon

☆ Inflation hurts. But White House economists find that it’s even worse in every other G7 nation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —The United States is recovering faster than its peers from the historic bout of inflation squeezing families and souring the mood of the nation, according to a new analysis from White House economists. To address that, the White House economists built an apples-to-apples inflation metric that makes certain adjustments to how shelter costs factor into overall inflation. But we are very heartened and happy to see the trend going where it is,” a CEA official told CNN in a phone interview. And here’s the thing about inflation: It is undeniably down in the United States.”Two independent economists that CNN shared the CEA report with support the logic powering the analysis. That is absolutely a painful thing,” the CEA official said.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, “, “ I’m, Mark Zandi, Republican John McCain, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, Biden, Brian Moynihan, CNN’s Poppy Harlow, George W, Bush, Piper Sandler, Trump, ” Piper Sandler Organizations: New York CNN Business —, White House, of Economic Advisers, CNN, CEA, White, Republican, RSM, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Federal, Gallup Locations: United States, Ukraine, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, America, Europe, Wall, Middle America

☆ E.U. Takes Aim at China in Proposed Economic Strategy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Matina Stevis-Gridneff | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The European Commission on Tuesday unveiled a new trade doctrine aimed at curbing China’s ability to squeeze Europe’s economy, and at preventing European companies from exporting sensitive, military-linked technology that could give China an edge. The policy, still in its early stages, highlights how the European Union is seeking to align itself with the United States in limiting China’s access to sensitive markets and industrial secrets. The announcement in Brussels came in a busy week for Europe-China relations. The Chinese premier, Li Qiang, is visiting Germany, where he met with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and business leaders on Tuesday before heading to meetings in France. The initiative also underscores how the European Union, one of the world’s biggest economies and a key trade partner to both China and the U.S., is trying to manage its economic dependence on Beijing and avoid the kind of economic breakup with Russia that followed the invasion of Ukraine.

Persons: Li Qiang, Chancellor Olaf Scholz Organizations: European Commission, European Union Locations: China, United States, Moscow, Brussels, Europe, Germany, France, U.S, Beijing, Russia, Ukraine

"I told you when I ran for president, I'd have your back, and I have," Biden told the approximately 2,000 union members in attendance. [1/7] U.S. President Joe Biden turns towards a cheering crowd during a labor union event at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., June 17, 2023. White working-class union voters were divided on Biden in 2020, but he now has their support, according to some union leaders. "There is not one labor leader worth their salt in Philadelphia that hasn't recognized just how much President Biden has supported men and women in labor. Union voters helped Biden win critical election battleground states including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in 2020.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, I'd, you've, Donald Trump, They're, Tom Brenner, White, Trump, Ryan Boyer, Boyer, Seth Harris, Harris, Nandita Bose, Jarrett Renshaw, James Oliphant, Will Dunham, Heather Timmons, Bill Berkrot Organizations: PHILADELPHIA, AFL, CIO, Democratic, Republican, Republicans, Center, REUTERS, Trump, Biden, boilermakers, steelworkers, Union, Labor, Edison Research, United Auto Workers, White, Northeastern University, Thomson Locations: Philadelphia, U.S, Washington, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, United States, Boston

White working-class union voters were divided on Biden in 2020, but some union leaders say he now has their support. Some building trades unions, whose members traditionally vote Republican, did not endorse any candidate in 2020 after local leaders couldn't agree over backing Biden or Donald Trump. "There is not one labor leader worth their salt in Philadelphia that hasn't recognized just how much President Biden has supported men and women in labor. Biden won 57% of union households nationwide in 2020 compared with 40% for Trump, according to Edison Research. In December, some unions criticized Biden for signing legislation preventing a nationwide rail strike.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Trump, couldn't, Donald Trump, Ryan Boyer, wasn't, Seth Harris, Harris, Nandita Bose, Jarrett Renshaw, Heather Timmons, Bill Berkrot Organizations: AFL, CIO, Biden, Republican, boilermakers, steelworkers, Union, Democratic, Trump, Edison Research, United Auto Workers, Northeastern University, White, Thomson Locations: Philadelphia, Washington, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan , Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona

The Reserve Bank of Australia seems to have executed a one-meeting 'skip', but perhaps more by accident than design. Leaving open the possibility in July of another 25-basis-point hike two months later could prevent financial conditions from loosening too much. The Fed wants policy to be restrictive, and financial markets to move accordingly. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Philip Jefferson in recent weeks have introduced 'skip' and 'skipping' into Fed-watchers' lexicons. Until then, a pause was generally assumed to lay the ground for rate cuts, not a resumption of rate hikes.

Persons: Alan Greenspan, John Silvia, Silvia, Jerome Powell, Lorie Logan, Powell, Patrick Harker, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Price, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Dynamic, Fed, Dallas, Philadelphia Fed, Consumer, Index, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

Tens of billions of dollars of FX and gold reserves have been used up - another sign of systematic micro-management. Depositors have put some $33 billion into depreciation-protected bank accounts in the last two months, bringing the total to $121 billion - almost a quarter of all Turkish deposits. Benchmark international market bonds have fallen back 10%-15% and key FX market volatility gauges that look a year or more ahead have hit record highs. Eyes are now on the FX reserves and the lira as it surpasses 20 to the dollar, the latest major milestone in its long descent. "These weren't seen as cheap assets, they were seen as jewels," MIT's Acemoglu said of the M&A banking boom heyday.

☆ Turkish lira hits record low as bonds steady after post-election rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira weakened to a record low against the dollar on Thursday, after incumbent Tayyip Erdogan's lead in presidential elections surprised markets, while the nation's sovereign dollar bonds steadied after a three-day post-election rout. The cost of insuring the country's debt against default fell slightly, but equity markets and banking stocks endured fresh losses in afternoon trading. The lira weakened to a record low of 19.8050 to the dollar by 1904 GMT, bringing its losses since the election to more than 1%. The 2045 bond gained close to one cent to trade at just over 70 cents on the dollar by 1300 GMT, Tradeweb data showed. Credit default swaps, which measure the cost of insuring the country's debt against default, narrowed by 8 basis points (bps) by mid afternoon, to 684 bps, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed.

☆ Consultancies are coming off a pandemic boom. Are they still worth hiring?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Management consultancies helped design vaccination programs during the pandemic and are currently providing advice on how to rescue one of the world’s biggest banks. The $230 billion management consulting industry is a broad church: it includes companies offering everything from project management expertise to designing new organizational structures. Many big firms — think EY and KPMG — also conduct audits and advise on their clients’ tax issues, though these services are generally seen as distinct from their consulting work. In The Big Con, published in February, prize-winning economist Mariana Mazzucato and her co-author Rosie Collington argue that management consultancies “infantilize” governments by keeping them dependent on their services. Nearly 80% of firms surveyed globally have told the think-tank that consultants’ work is either of high or very high quality, she noted.

☆ Hong Kong’s dollar stress gets more fundamental
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, April 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong’s currency peg to the greenback is stuck between a rock and a hard place. In the past 12 months, the de-facto central bank has stepped in to buy Hong Kong dollars from the market roughly 40 times. Some foreign financiers, including Pershing Square boss Bill Ackman, argue Hong Kong’s financial system can’t sustain the peg and question its rationale. But in the long run, demand for Hong Kong dollars depends on confidence in its economic strategy. Hong Kong’s peg is durable enough for now, but its future is in doubt nevertheless.

Separately, in a televised interview on Wednesday, Erdogan downplayed the significance of the meeting with Simsek, saying such meetings were ordinary. A senior government official told Reuters the AKP was somewhat divided with some members opposed to Simsek's return, and described the outcome of the Erdogan meeting as "undesirable". The party may now need to revise its economic platform ahead of the election campaign, he added. The AKP declined to comment on whether it was revising its economic strategy ahead of the vote. Two recent polls by MAK and Turkiye Raporu show the opposition presidential challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu between 4 and 9 percentage points ahead of Erdogan.

Investors know the event risk so they tighten controls, and are generally more cautious. Calendar event risk, or 'known unknowns,' may unleash market volatility, but investors can hedge or sit on the sidelines. chartNominal trading volumes in these contracts often spikes up on 'event days' like U.S. jobs and inflation data days. However, as a share of overall options turnover - which Cheng says is a better indication of potential market risk - many of the recent peaks have been on random 'non-event' days. chartHe and his colleagues estimate that the daily notional value of trading in '0DTE' options has grown to about $1 trillion.

☆ Op-ed: Biden's American Rescue Plan props up underserved communities with jobs, education
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

This started with policies like the Advance Child Tax Credit, which under the Rescue Plan offered monthly payments to families and helped lift 3.5 million children out of poverty. Expanding our labor force is another area where efforts to support communities of color and other underserved communities is helping to unleash economic gains for all Americans. Last year, I visited Orlando, Florida, where the mayor took me on a tour of a workforce training center funded by the President's American Rescue Plan. The benefits of this effort will be particularly powerful in underserved communities. For too long, racism and discrimination have limited the ability of underserved communities to fully contribute to our civic and economic advancement.

☆ 'Bregret'? Many Brits are suffering from Brexit regret
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Polling suggests that a majority of Brits now think that the U.K. was wrong to leave the European Union. NurPhoto / Contributor / Getty ImagesLONDON — Almost seven years and four prime ministers since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, polling suggests public sentiment has turned against Brexit. "The second thing is the increasing number of leave and other voters who are coming to see Brexit as having had negative economic impacts." But longer-term factors played a role, and he suggested that a lengthy stagnation in living standards, partly caused by the austerity policies introduced by David Cameron's government, contributed to the anger unleashed across working-class communities in the Brexit vote. Brexit being 'redefined' Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a landslide election victory in 2019 with a promise to "get Brexit done," touting an "oven-ready" withdrawal agreement he had negotiated with the European Union.

☆ Op-ed: U.S. inflation and jobs reports show fastest recovery in 30 years under Biden
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Cecilia Rouse | Chair Of The Council Of Economic Advisers | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The employment report earlier this month suggested U.S. employers added 517,000 jobs in January, well above what private forecasters were expecting. Over 12 million jobs have been created since President Joe Biden took office. At the same time, we have experienced the fastest jobs recovery from a recession in the last three decades. In January, the unemployment rate was 3.4%, with Black unemployment and unemployment for workers with less than a high school degree at near record lows. Looking back to where we were when President Biden came into office and the progress we have made is extraordinary.

☆ New cars are crazy expensive but, if you’re careful, they don’t have to be
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Peter Valdes-Dapena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Yet the average sticker for base models, adjusted for inflation, has actually gone down a little — even as consumers have shifted from sedans to more expensive SUVs. That’s good news for drivers willing to go no-frills: If you don’t want to pay lots of a new car, you don’t have to. It has a base price of $15,730. These base price models may not make much money, if any, for automakers. The average price of a GMC Sierra 2500 HD, as sold, is now double the base price.

The appearance with McConnell, R-Ky., and other regional leaders from both parties Wednesday signals a dual focus for a White House aiming to stay above the political fray in 2023. But the bipartisan infrastructure law will be front and center as the White House says 20,000 new projects funded by the law will be underway in the year ahead. On Thursday, White House infrastructure coordinator Mitch Landrieu will visit San Francisco, one week after outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that the city’s iconic Golden Gate Bridge will undergo a $400 million retrofit funded by the law. “I’ve never been more optimistic about America in my whole career,” Biden said during an appearance on ABC’s New Year’s Eve special. When asked Friday about whether the 2024 election has come up in discussions this week, Biden quipped: “There’s an election coming up?"

☆ New Israel Finance Minister Smotrich promises fiscal responsibility
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-01 | by ( Steven Scheer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

JERUSALEM, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Bezalel Smotrich took over as Israel's finance minister on Sunday, pledging fiscal responsibility and a boost to competition while working to tackle high living costs at a time of elevated inflation and slowing global economic growth. "Israel will be an island of stability and responsibility," the 42-year old Smotrich, head of the far-right pro-settler Religious Zionism party, told Reuters after the ceremony at the finance ministry. He added that Israel would take all necessary steps to support economic stability and be the "safest place" to invest. Incoming economy minister Nir Barkat said he intends to ease the "unbearable load" on businesses in Israel, declaring a "war on regulation", which he called "a cancer on the economy". New tourism minister Haim Katz promised to promote tourism in the occupied West Bank.

☆ New Israel finance minister says to keep free-market policies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Steven Scheer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

JERUSALEM, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Incoming Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he would pursue a broad free-market policy on Wednesday, an apparent effort to allay fears he would be guided by Jewish biblical principles. "I will pursue a broad free-market policy," he wrote. Smotrich said he would be inspired by U.S. right-to-work laws and pursue similar measures to reduce union control in Israel’s labour force. His "traditionalist bloc" in Netanyahu's nationalist-religious coalition had been "vilified" by U.S. media, he said. The $1.3 trillion fund's executive board this month had decided to exclude Israeli security and analytics software provider Cognyte Software Ltd (CGNT.O) from its portfolio citing human rights concerns.

☆ South Korea's president stresses need for labour reforms
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SEOUL, Dec 21 (Reuters) - South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said on Wednesday reforming practices in the labour market should be a top priority for his government's drive to improve the way the country works. "We should significantly change labour market practices in step with the fast-changing industrial structure and changes in labour demand," Yoon said, adding that the rule of law should be firmly established in labour practices. The conservative Yoon, who took office early this year, has repeatedly said his government would strictly apply the law to labour relations in a country with a long record of fractious industrial relations. The tax burden on the owners of multiple homes should be lowered to ease the burden on renters, he said. Reporting by Choonsik Yoo; Editing by Tom Hogue, Robert BirselOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Israeli lawmaker tables bill to limit banks raising mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Steven Scheer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

JERUSALEM, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The head of Israel's powerful parliamentary finance committee submitted a bill on Monday that would limit banks' ability to raise mortgage rates after central bank interest rate increases. The Bank of Israel has raised its benchmark interest rate by 3.15 percentage points to 3.25% since April, with more hikes likely. Monthly mortgage repayments have soared by more than 1,000 shekels ($291), with high inflation an additional factor. The aggressive interest rate increases are aimed at countering inflation that has topped 5%, exacerbating already high costs of living. He said any legislation to get around the higher rates would create risks for banks.

☆ Israel's next finance minister brings religion to the front of economic strategy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Steven Scheer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

JERUSALEM, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Israel's incoming finance minister has said his economic strategy will be infused with religious beliefs laid out in the Torah, predicting that this would help the country prosper. Bezalel Smotrich, head of the far-right Religious Zionism party, said that as finance minister he would delve deep into the inner workings of the economy. Smotrich was tapped by prime minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu to serve as finance minister for two years. At the same time, only about half of ultra-Orthodox men work, according to government data. Israel's central bank has said this is a drain on the economy and has recommended incentives to draw more ultra-Orthodox men into the workforce.

☆ U.S. Not Seeking Decoupling From China, Commerce Chief Says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Yuka Hayashi | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Under Gina Raimondo, the Commerce Department has played a key role in the Biden administration’s economic strategy against China. WASHINGTON—The U.S. isn’t seeking to decouple from China, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will assert Wednesday, even as she emphasizes steps the U.S. is taking to safeguard its technology to ensure its economic competitiveness. Ms. Raimondo is scheduled to speak Wednesday on U.S. competition with China at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. At a briefing with reporters in advance, Ms. Raimondo highlighted the importance of promoting trade and investment in areas outside of core economic and national security interests.

☆ Australia to become 'more assertive' on foreign investment in critical minerals
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Australia, a major supplier of minerals key to the energy transition like rare earths, has more to gain by encouraging investment from allies to build up its minerals processing industry, Chalmers said at a conference in Sydney. "Foreign investment is a good thing when it’s in our national interest," Chalmers said. "But as investment interest grows, and as the sources of that investment interest grow, we’ll need to be more assertive about encouraging investment that clearly aligns with our national interest in the longer term." The Labor government which took power in May is buttressing Australia's policy to build out a critical minerals processing supply chain. Australia is revising its critical minerals strategy and has been positioning itself as a green superpower, backed by its mineral endowments.

☆ China vows commitment to growth as investors bet on easier COVID policy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Even though case numbers are rising and disruptive lockdowns continue with no clear exit strategy in sight, investors latched on to hope that China may ease its strict COVID policy in the coming months. Renewed COVID lockdowns are weighing heavily on China's business activity and consumer confidence. read moreOPEN-DOOR POLICYYi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), said China will continue to deregulate its markets. While other countries have been tightening policy to battle rising prices, China has implemented an accommodative monetary policy to shore up sputtering growth, raising concerns about capital flight. With China's zero-COVID policy expected to remain in place through at least the winter, or longer, its near-term growth outlook is bleak.

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