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☆ 'Bond King' Jeffrey Gundlach says buy long-dated Treasurys, with prices set to rebound going into a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jeffrey Gundlach says long-duration Treasurys will make a good short-term trade in a recession. Gundlach also sees agency mortgage securities and commercial mortgage bonds as attractive. "We like long-term treasury bonds for the short-term trade going into a recession. "There has been about a 50% drawdown in the long bond, which means there is now potential for the long bond to go up in price." In calling a recession on the horizon, he also touted agency mortgage-backed securities and commercial mortgage bonds as attractive investments.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, — Organizations: Service, DoubleLine Capital, AAA

☆ Jeremy Grantham and Bill Gross have warned stocks are overvalued. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel disagrees: "They are underpriced"
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Anil Varma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel rejects the notion that US stocks are overvalued, saying they are in fact "underpriced". "Even if there is a mild recession, these are great long-term values," Siegel said, referring to the current levels in stocks. Wharton finance professor and markets guru Jeremy Siegel suggests just the opposite might be the case. Even if there is a mild recession, these are great long-term values. Stocks are almost to levels where earnings yields are above 6%, which equate to real returns going forward," Siegel wrote.

Persons: Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Jeremy Grantham, Bill Gross, Jeffrey Gundlach, Siegel, —, Wall, MacroEdge Organizations: Service, DoubleLine, JPMorgan, Equity

So-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher - were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns over U.S. federal spending pushed Treasury yields to 8%. Strategist Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, has also chimed in. “The bond vigilantes have been challenging (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis,” he said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Wednesday. Famed bond investor Bill Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., said bond vigilantes will have a muted effect now given the Fed's larger role in markets. Bond investors "are rather powerless pawns in this interest rate chess game," he told Reuters by email.

Persons: Fitch, doesn't, Gene Tannuzzo, Jake Remley, Ed Yardeni, Janet, ”, Bill Gross, Greg Whiteley, Robert Tipp, David Randall, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Bond, Columbia, Treasury, Apollo, Treasury Department, Government, Social, Research, Management, “, Pacific Investment Management Co, Thomson Locations: Wall, Boston

☆ Billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach warns of a recession as markets roil: 'Buckle up'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"If the unemployment rate ticks up just a couple of tenths it will be recession alert," Gundlach wrote on X. AdvertisementAdvertisementBond-market turmoil could be a sign that a recession is on the way, Jeff Gundlach has warned. "The US Treasury yield curve is de-inverting very rapidly," Gundlach wrote in a post on X. That "should put everyone on recession warning, not just recession watch," he added. That's led to the gap in returns offered by 2- and 10-year Treasurys narrowing to just 33 basis points, for the tightest yield curve since late March.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach, Buckle, —, That's, –, David Lebovitz Organizations: DoubleLine, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, London School of Economics, JPMorgan

☆ Here's where Wall Street strategists see the stock market headed next after a brutal September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks are coming off a brutal two-month stretch, and Wall Street is divided on what comes next. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is coming off back-to-back rocky months, and Wall Street is split on what could be coming next for investors. And Jeff Gundlach, the billionaire founder of DoubleLine Capital, said Tuesday that Treasury yields suggest it's time to start worrying about a severe downturn.

Persons: Stocks, Fundstrat, —, Quincy Krosby, Jay Woods, Woods, jitters, Kevin McCarthy, Gene Goldman, Goldman, Tom Lee, Lee, Marko Kolanovic, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Freedom Capital, Treasury, Cetera Investment Management, CNBC, DoubleLine

☆ What the bond market is telling us about recession chances right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curve initially inverted in March 2022, a phenomenon that has historically been a reliable recession predictor. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields tightened to 40 basis points on Tuesday, marking the smallest gap since May 5. "I always talk about the yield curve being inverted as a warning signal if you will... but it doesn't happen imminently. The notable bond investor said when the yield curve de-inverts, it's a strong signal of a recession and that it was very close to happening. EvercoreISI historical work found that the yield curve turns positively sloped just before a recession begins.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, it's, Pershing, Bill Ackman, Ackman Organizations: Treasury, DoubleLine, CNBC, Federal Reserve

"It's not going to be a matter of struggling to get the inflation rate higher. While higher interest rates are good news for savers, businesses and consumers have become used to paying nothing for money over the past 15 years. Reuters GraphicsREADING YIELDSA market-based Fed model that breaks down the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides further insight into investors' thinking. This rise in term premium, which spent much of the last decade below zero, reflects high levels of uncertainty about economic outlook and monetary policy, investors said. While the market appears to be confident in its belief in the end of the era of zero interest rates, it is far less so about the economy's actual likely path.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Greg Whiteley, It's, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Adrian, Crump, Emanuel Moench, John Velis, Leslie Falconio, BNY's Velis, Velis, Paritosh Bansal, Anna Driver 私 Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, York Fed, Minneapolis, Moench, Frankfurt School of Finance, Management, Americas, BNY Mellon, UBS Global Wealth Management, San, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington ,, U.S, DoubleLine, San Francisco

☆ Stocks are 'pretty overvalued' – and a recession is likely to hit in the next 9 months, says billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Jeffrey Gundlach says stocks look expensive and he expects a recession in the first half of 2024. Government overspending could lead to an inflationary recession or "stagflation," Gundlach said. "I think the market is pretty overvalued," the billionaire CEO of DoubleLine Capital said on a recent company webcast. "It could be an inflationary recession." The prospect of "higher for longer" interest rates suggests a stock-market decline and recession are still real possibilities.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Government overspending, Gundlach, it's Organizations: Government, Service, DoubleLine, Nasdaq, Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Brace for another Fed rate hike thanks to a 'problematic' surge in oil prices, billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Expect another rate increase by the Fed at its next meeting due to a "problematic" surge in oil prices, billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach said. "I think the probability of rate hikes is higher than what I thought before this oil spike happened," Gundlach said. Oil prices have climbed past $90 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and Russia slashed production. "So I think the chance of a rate hike is higher because these oil prices are going to be a real problem," Gundlach said. Surging oil prices now threaten to spark a resurgence of US inflation, which the Fed has tried so hard to quell.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal, CNBC, Brent, US West Texas Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Wall, Silicon

☆ Fed doing the right thing by keeping rates unchanged, says DoubeLine's Jeffrey Gundlach
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed doing the right thing by keeping rates unchanged, says DoubeLine's Jeffrey GundlachJeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss today's Federal Reserve decision.

Persons: DoubeLine's Jeffrey Gundlach Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: Fed, today's

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey GundlachJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine founder and CEO, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss today's Fed decision to leave rates unchanged, Fed Chair Powell's remarks on the economy, the bond market and much more.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach Jeffrey Gundlach

☆ DoubleLine’s Gundlach says chance of more rate hikes is higher due to 'problematic' oil spike
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Wednesday the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise rates again in light of the recent jump in oil prices. "I think the probability of rate hikes is higher than what I thought before this oil spike happened," Gundlach said on CNBC's "Closing Bell. " Oil prices have jumped since July, with West Texas Intermediate crude topping $90 a barrel, as expectations of a tighter supplies grew. "So I think the chance of a rate hike is higher because these oil prices are going to be a real problem." "I think it's quite likely there's going to be rate cuts in the first half of next year.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: DoubleLine, Federal Reserve, West Texas, Consumer, Fed Locations: Texas

☆ Insider Today: Apple's new iPhone is here
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter. But the show's real stars were the new versions of Apple's iPhone and Apple Watch. But if you were hoping a new iPhone will send Apple's stock soaring, think again. Prior to Tuesday's event, Apple's shares fell an average of 0.2% on days a new iPhone was announced, according to Barron's. The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor and anchor, in New York City.

Persons: Bond, Elon Musk's, Justin Sullivan, Octavia Spencer, Tim Cook, Max, Insider's Sarah Jackson, Jordan Hart, Lakshmi, iPhones, Gary Coronado, Jamie Dimon, — Warren Buffett —, Bill Gross, DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, Pimco, DoubleLine's, Gross, Anna Moneymaker, Thomas Trutschel, isn't, Sundar Pichai, Elon, Walter Isaacson, Read, Kent Walker, Chelsea Jia Feng, Patreon, Naomi Osaka, Shaquille O'Neal, Allegra, Dayquil, Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon, Yelp, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Jets, Apple, Apple Watch, Getty, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Wall, Google, Software, Amazon, FDA, North American, Detroit Auto, GMC, Bourbon Locations: Wall, Silicon, Milwaukee, Lakshmi Varanasi, ., China, that's, Latvia, Estonia, Chelsea, Colorado, Arizona, Morocco, New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ The trusty American consumer is poised to run out of steam by early next year, investor survey says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Spending by the ever-reliable US consumer is about to fizzle out, according to a Bloomberg investor survey. Such resilience has staved off widespread recession fears, but as household savings run out, the fortunes of the US economy could reverse. AdvertisementAdvertisementIndeed, excess savings accumulated since the pandemic are poised to evaporate by as early as the end of September, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has said. "We still have very high prices, but we don't have all of that funny money around anymore, and the excess savings are going negative." The famed investor says the drying up of consumer savings is set to hammer corporate profits as spending declines.

Persons: –, Jeffrey Gundlach, Michael Burry Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Billionaire, DoubleLine, Fox Business Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

☆ Hip-hop stars and financial luminaries: Ritholtz Wealth Management redesigns the investment conference
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Surf City USA —for a financial conference. A financial conference on a beach? Reinventing the financial conferenceWelcome to FutureProof, billed as "the largest gathering of top-tier wealth management professionals, CEOs, CTOs, COOs, and fast-growing financial advisors." It's the brainchild of Barry Ritholtz, co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and CEO Josh Brown. "Coming out of the pandemic, it was obvious to us that the traditional financial conference was past its sell-by date," Ritholtz told me.

Persons: Tang, Redman, They're, Jeremy Siegel, Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Emily Roland, John Hancock, Cliff Asness, Jeff Gundlach, maven Jan van Eck, Barry Ritholtz, Josh Brown, Ritholtz, FutureProof, You'll, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, RIAs, Dan Ives, Scott Wapner, Siegel, Morningstar, Christine Benz, Jeffrey Ptak, Ben Johnson, podcasters Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson, Wu, Tang Clan Organizations: Wharton, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Chiropractic, Health, Investment Advisors, CNBC, Financial Locations: Huntington Beach , CA, Huntington Beach , California, Surf, Huntington Beach, AQR, DoubleLine, FutureProof, COOs, Wells, Wedbush, Young

☆ US consumer debt fears are overblown as borrowing slows and inflation cools, Moody's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US consumers debt isn't as bad as many fear, according to Moody's chief economist. Mark Zandi highlighted that borrowing has moderated since the start of the year as inflation cools. He added that student loan repayments won't cause delinquency rates on other debts to rise. In a post on X, Mark Zandi shared a contrarian view to ongoing chatter about US consumer debt. He added that student loan repayments won't cause delinquency rates on other debt to rise much.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Jeff Gundlach, Zandi Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US economy will 'hit a wall' by the spring – and inflation could spike again, warns 'bond king' Jeffrey Gundlach
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy is likely to "hit a wall" by next spring, Jeffrey Gundlach warned. The government may try to spend its way out of trouble, reigniting inflation, Gundlach said. They now face a "dangerous cocktail" of inflated living costs, steeper rents, larger interest payments on their credit cards, the resumption of student-loan repayments, and taxes coming due, he continued. Gundlach — whose nickname is the "bond king" — predicted the plethora of financial pressures would tank the economy. He emphasized that the government's interest payments are already exploding, and warned they could grow substantially in the coming years.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, — Organizations: DoubleLine, Service, Fox Business, DoubleLine Capital, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

LONDON/SYDNEY, July 31 (Reuters) - Commercial real estate investors and lenders are slowly confronting an ugly question - if people never again shop in malls or work in offices the way they did before the pandemic, how safe are the fortunes they piled into bricks and mortar? WALL OF DEBTGlobal banks hold about half of the $6 trillion outstanding commercial real estate debt, Moody's Investors Service said in June, with the largest share maturing in 2023-2026. U.S. banks revealed spiralling losses from property in their first half figures and warned of more to come. Borrowers in the UK real estate holding & development category were 4% more likely to default. But the whale could be commercial real estate in the U.S.".

Persons: Richard Murphy, Jeffrey Sherman, Charles, Henry Monchau, Bank Syz, Jones Lang LaSalle, Savills, JLL, Dhara Ranasinghe, Huw Jones, Clare Jim, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Employers, UK's Sheffield University, Reuters, Investors, Moody's Investors Service, Fed, Federal, Bank, Suisse, Washington D.C, HSBC, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, London, Los Angeles and New York, U.S, New York, Beijing, San Francisco, Tokyo, Washington, Shanghai, North America, Hong Kong

☆ A severe recession is on the horizon - and the Fed will axe interest rates to limit the fallout, DoubleLine's chief investor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US economy is barreling toward a serious recession, DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Sherman says. Sherman predicts an embattled Fed will cut interest rates by a whole percentage point in response. "A multitude of economic indicators we look at are flashing either warning or recessionary signals," Jeffrey Sherman told Bloomberg. "The bond market is telling the Fed that they've overtightened and they will have to cut rates," Sherman said. "I think one signal to watch now is the rising default rate within the loan market," Sherman noted.

Persons: DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Sherman, Sherman, Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine, Jeffrey Sherman, He's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The Fed shouldn't have raised rates again, says DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed shouldn't have raised rates again, says DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey GundlachJeffrey Gundlach, CEO, CIO and Co-Founder of DoubleLine Capital LP, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed's decision to raise rates by 25 bps, recessionary signals relating to the yield curve de-inversion and signals that core PCE moving down to 3% in the upcoming month.

Persons: DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: DoubleLine

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey GundlachJeffrey Gundlach, CEO, CIO and Co-Founder of DoubleLine Capital LP, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed's decision to raise rates by 25 bps, recessionary signals relating to the yield curve de-inversion and signals that core PCE moving down to 3% in the upcoming month.

Persons: DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: DoubleLine

☆ ETFs delivered mixed messages in the first half. Thoughts on what might work for the second half
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Despite a strong first half performance for the broad equity markets, ETF equity flows have been subpar this year. The big money has gone into Treasury ETFs and money market funds. First half inflows were subpar The first half ended with a modest acceleration of inflows into equity ETFs. Regardless, first half equity inflows were still well short of the prior years' first half activity. Join us Wednesday at 1:10 p.m. on ETF Edge for our second half ETF playbook.

Persons: Todd Sohn, . Sohn, Sohn, " Sohn, Dave Nadig Organizations: Tech, Energy, P Tech, Nasdaq, Fidelity, Renaissance Capital, Technology, Nvidia, Microsoft, Edge, VettaFi

☆ The Fed just held interest rates and signaled future hikes at the same time – a move that baffled many. Here's how Larry Summers, Mohamed El-Erian, and others have reacted.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed pressed pause on its interest-rate increases this month after boosting borrowing costs 10 times since early 2022. The move spurred a wave of commentary given the central bank at once held rates and signaled more hikes. "It seems like the unanimity of opinion that we need more rate hikes has been clear, but the path of rate hikes is all over the place," he added. "It was what I would call, an awkward but hawkish pause," he added. Peter Schiff, chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital"Don't believe the hype on the Fed's hawkish pause on rates.

Persons: Larry Summers, Mohamed El, David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach, —, Jerome Powell, Summers, Erian, Tom, Dick, Harry, " Rosenberg, Gundlach, Steve Forbes, Forbes, Don't, Richard Clarida, they've, they're, Clarida, Whitney Watson, Watson, Peter Schiff, Schiff Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Erian, Allianz, CNBC, Federal, Global, Goldman Sachs, Euro

As a result, he is staying away from assets that could be hit hard if market stress suddenly increases, such as small cap stocks. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% on Wednesday after shuffling between gains and losses. The S&P 500 is up 15% this year, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) has gained 30%. Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management, believes a burgeoning stock market rally could loosen credit conditions, threatening to exacerbate consumer prices - an undesirable outcome for the inflation-fighting Fed. The S&P 500 is up 14% from a low reached after the banking crisis in March.

Persons: ”, Josh Emanuel, Emanuel, James St . Aubin, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mark Heppenstall, Josh Jamner, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: YORK, Federal, Wilshire, Nasdaq, Sierra Investment Management, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fed, Penn Mutual Asset Management, ClearBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Fed paused, but so did markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on June 14, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Pause and playThe Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. That could mean a return to raising rates to combat Turkey's sky-high inflation, which was 39.6% in May.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Elon Musk, Noel Barrot, Barrot, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Twitter, DoubleLine Locations: Washington ,, Europe, France, EU, U.S

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