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☆ Stock futures rise slightly ahead of key inflation data and the kickoff of earnings season: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S equity futures rose slightly Sunday evening as investors looked ahead to key inflation data and the start of first-quarter earnings season. Futures tied to the broad market S&P 500 rose 0.2% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up 62 points, or 0.2%. The market was volatile as economic data showed signs of a weakening labor market. The March jobs report on Friday showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation, however, which pushed stock futures and Treasury yields higher. "It's still probably a toss-up as to whether the Fed hikes by another 25 basis points at its next meeting and stands pat; the next set of inflation data will probably be the deciding factor."

☆ Bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Anita Ramaswamy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Since his Miami proclamations, bitcoin’s price has fallen by nearly 40%, though in the last few weeks after Silicon Valley Bank’s failure it has had a resurgence. At first glance, his prediction seems wildly optimistic but directionally reasonable – bitcoin has surged by over 35% since SVB’s collapse on March 10. What’s more, bitcoin may never have surpassed $60,000 to reach its highest-ever price level in 2021 had the Fed not kept interest rates consistently low. It’s the prospect of lower rates – not the lack of government stability – that is opening the door to riskier bets like those on bitcoin. Gold is a tangible asset, unlike bitcoin, and that’s precisely what makes it an inflation hedge.

☆ Oil plunge is bad for energy stocks but actually good for other areas of our portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The extent of the decline in West Texas Intermediate crude — down 5.5% to under $67 per barrel — seems overdone in an energy market that remains structurally undersupplied. Bad for energy stocks For now, we're holding onto our three oil exploration and production (E & P) stocks — Coterra Energy (CTRA), Devon Energy (DVN) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) — because their breakeven levels are around $40 per barrel. The big question is whether the federal government will make good on its signals to replenish the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at WTI prices below $70 per barrel. In turn, higher energy costs eat into discretionary spending budgets. Now, with energy costs coming down, we would expect these input costs to subside a bit.

☆ Here are Tuesday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Amazon, Arista, Costco, Joby, Netflix & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Here are Tuesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Northcoast upgrades Costco to buy from hold Northcoast said it sees more upside for the wholesale retailer. " Goldman Sachs initiates Arista Networks and Juniper as buy Goldman initiated several networking equipment stocks, noting they are attractively valued. Deutsche Bank downgrades Joby to sell from hold Deutsche said it sees too many risks for the aviation company. Morgan Stanley reiterates Walmart as overweight Morgan Stanley said its standing by shares of Walmart as the retail giant continues to sign up new members for its Walmart+. Loop reiterates Netflix as hold Loop said its survey checks show that password sharing charging is increasing revenue for Netflix.

☆ How's the return to office going? Just look at shares of one of the largest office REITs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Vornado says it owns 20 million square feet of office space plus 2.6 million square feet of street retail space in Manhattan alone, 3.7 million square feet at The Mart in Chicago and a controlling stake in almost 2 million square feet of office in San Francisco. But in the New York metropolitan area last week, the rate fell to 46.7% from 47.8% the week before, Kastle said. In San Francisco, the rate was even lower last week, at 43.9%, while in Chicago it was 49.4%. Maybe that's why Deutsche Bank analyst Derek Johnston ranked office REITs last out of eight REIT industry groups in a monthly review released on Tuesday. In January, subsector year-over-year cap rates climbed the most for office owners, he said, up 80 basis points, or 8/10ths of a percentage point.

☆ JPMorgan downgrades electric vehicle stock Nio, says expectations are too high
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's time to step to the sidelines on Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio after its latest quarter, according to JPMorgan. Analyst Nick Lai downgraded Nio to neutral from overweight, saying it will be increasingly challenging for the electric vehicle maker to deliver on high expectations. He said that the firm's fourth-quarter results were a miss because of vehicle margin contraction. The analyst's new December-2023 price target is $10, down from $14, which implies upside of roughly 13%. The firm reduced its price target to $10, from $18.

☆ Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Tesla, Snowflake, Salesforce, Nio, Nvidia & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

JPMorgan downgrades Nio to neutral from overweight JPMorgan said it sees too many challenges after the Nio's earnings report on Wednesday. JPMorgan downgrades Dollar Tree to neutral from overweight JPMorgan said it sees too many macro headwinds for the discount retailer. Morgan Stanley upgrades Pinduoduo to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said the ag-tech company is a "long-term growth story." Morgan Stanley reiterates Liberty Formula One as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's bullish on shares of the auto racing company. Morgan Stanley reiterates Tesla as overweight Morgan Stanley said competitors can't keep up after Tesla's investor day on Wednesday.

☆ Black families' net worth has grown more than other racial groups since Covid, but wealth gap remains wide
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Getty ImagesBlack families saw their wealth grow more than that of non-Black households during the pandemic, but the racial wealth gap is still vast, a new study showed. While non-Black families had a much higher starting point at roughly $950,000 just before the onset of the pandemic, their wealth has risen just 21% over the same period, the Wells study showed. Even with the improvement, the racial wealth gap is still staggering: Black Americans' net worth is 70% below that of non-Black households. "This is a step in the right direction, but there's still a lot of progress that needs to be made here." One factor contributing to the slight shrinking in the wealth gap is actually the fact that the assets of Black households are much less diversified.

☆ I'm an experienced female solo traveler—here are 4 tips I use to be smart about my money on the go
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( Kamaron Mcnair | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Solo travel is one of my favorite perks of being single. Plus, like the everyday costs that rack up quickly for singles, solo travel can often be more expensive than going with a companion. I'm not alone: Search interest in female solo travel specifically recently hit a 10-year high, according to Google Trends. These are my top four tips for smarter saving and spending on your next solo trip. The destination itself might even be a chance for you to save money.

☆ How analysts are playing gig economy stocks ahead of earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The 2022 selloffs underscored the challenges gig economy stocks have faced in recent years as novelty and venture capital funding chilled, analysts have said to clients. Analysts are now contemplating how to position ahead of the major gig companies' earnings reports, which kick off with Uber on Feb. 8. A look at where each company stands: Uber UBER LYFT,DASH 5Y mountain Gig economy stocks One area where analysts at SVB MoffettNathanson, Jefferies and Bernstein all agree: be bullish on Uber. Lyft Analysts at the three firms, however, are leery when it comes to competitor Lyft. DoorDash Analysts were split on DoorDash.

☆ Earnings are showing signs of strain and are likely to get worse as economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-29 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Earnings for all S & P 500 companies fell 2.9% for the fourth quarter, based on actual reports and estimates. Rauscher expects a shallow recession, and his view is S & P 500 earnings for 2023 will be about $210, below the street's consensus closer to $230. According to Refinitiv, analysts expect a 1.2% decline in first quarter earnings, followed by a 2% drop in the second quarter. Tech earnings have been a mixed bag. He remains defensive on the market even with the 6.5% gain in the S & P 500 in January so far.

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Shares of household product giant P & G have been hit hard over the past few weeks due to a market rotation out of defensive companies that outperformed last year. P & G lost about 7% in 2022's terrible year, much less than the S & P 500 's more than 19% decline in 2022. Sure the 6% decline in sales volume was more noticeable from the prior quarter when volume fell 3%. For example, 1 percentage point of the volume decline was due to P & G cutting its Russia portfolio in half due to Moscow's unprovoked war on Ukraine. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

☆ Earnings playbook: What investors can expect out of Tesla, Microsoft and Boeing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

Tuesday Johnson & Johnson is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. What history shows: Johnson & Johnson has beaten earnings expectations 95% of the time, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Wednesday Boeing is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a call with analysts at 10:30 a.m. What history shows: FactSet data shows Boeing has posted a greater-than-expected loss in the last five quarters. Tesla is set to report earnings after the close, with management set to hold a call at 5:30 p.m.

☆ Overconfidence can be 'a pathway to poor portfolio performance,' says chief investment officer. How to check your ego
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"It's very easy to have an impression of, 'Actually, I know a lot and haven't been proven wrong,'" Egan said. For example, investors can fall prey to "confirmation bias," whereby they seek out evidence in social media circles that confirms a previously held but potentially false belief. When an investment is trendy, 'start watching yourself'Overconfidence bias in investing tends to manifest most often with get-rich-quick type investment decisions, Egan said. "That's when you need to start watching yourself," he said. Similarly, overconfidence may lead rushed investors to accidentally buy the wrong stock, Egan said.

☆ These tactical trades are some of Goldman's favorite ways to play earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-15 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors may need to dig deep to find upside plays during the fourth quarter earnings season, but there are still likely winners to be found, according to Goldman Sachs. In a note to clients on Thursday, managing director John Marshall said the options market suggests Wall Street will need to be blown away for companies to get rewarded this earnings season. Investors can use call options to play earnings season by buying contracts that expire after the report with a slightly higher strike price than the current market price. The following stocks have buy ratings from Goldman analysts, where the firm expects a healthy earnings beat. Expedia , which has surged 21% so far this year, is also well-liked by Goldman analysts.

☆ Investors may be surprised how low the S&P 500 could go in a recession, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 may have quite a bit further to fall this year, especially if the U.S. is pushed into a recession, according to Morgan Stanley. What Wilson sees in stocks in 2023 Wilson has a few reasons to again go against the grain. He sees the equity risk premium of the S & P 500 – currently around 2.33% –too low given the earnings risk forecast. "Our base case forecast for 2023 S & P 500 EPS is $195 while our bear case forecast (a recession) is $180," he said. "This compares to the bottoms up consensus forecast of $230, which nearly every client agrees is too high."

☆ The S&P 500 could fall another 22% and investors' view of more downside for stocks is too mild, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 could sink by more than investors anticipate, Morgan Stanley warned on Monday. Investors see the S&P 500 sitting at 3,500-3,600. The S&P 500 tumbled 19% in 2022 but has been pushing higher as 2023 trade gets underway. The S&P 500 was pushing its rally into a second consecutive session on Monday, up by more than 1% to around 3,945. "The bottom line, we don't think a 3,500-3,600 S&P 500 is consistent with the consensus view for a mild recession.

☆ Think you've got investing skill? Your overconfidence may be costly
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Fuse | Corbis | Getty ImagesWhen it comes to investing, you may know less than you think — and that overconfidence may be costly. But "overconfidence bias" — the behavioral principle of overestimating one's financial acumen — can have damaging results. "It's very easy to have an impression of, 'Actually, I know a lot and haven't been proven wrong,'" Egan said. Similarly, overconfidence may lead rushed investors to accidentally buy the wrong stock, Egan said. However, investors inadvertently bought the wrong stock — the Tesla and SpaceX CEO was referring to the encrypted messaging app Signal, whereas Signal Advance is a small component manufacturer.

☆ Instant View: US payrolls show labor market remains strong but wages rises cool
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Monthly job growth is well above the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working age population. "Through the rest of the report, the average hourly earnings month over month came in at 0.3%. But everything else about this shows a very, very resilient labor market which doesn’t bode well for a smaller rate hike. "Fed will look at these numbers and say that the labor market is still pretty robust and to the extent that they would like to see a bit of slack in the labor market."

☆ Signals from Costco on inflation are keeping us from overreacting to hotter producer prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Ultimately, we think the November consumer price index (CPI) holds more weight with the market and the Fed than Friday's wholesale figures, known officially as the producer price index (PPI). "Recall last quarter and fourth quarter, we estimated year-over-year price inflation was about 8%. At the headline level, what the retail giant is seeing seems directionally in line with what Friday's wholesale price report indicated. While Costco spoke to some food pressures — similar to what Friday's PPI showed — we feel good about the fact Costco management did not warn of a serious reversal in inflation trends. Friday's PPI did not materially change expectations on what the Fed might do Wednesday at the conclusion of its two-day December policy meeting.

☆ November PPI a bit hotter than expected
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Data for October was revised higher to show the PPI gaining 0.3% instead of 0.2% as previously reported. "I don’t believe this changes anything about what the Fed was going to do on Wednesday in terms of raising rates by 50 basis points." The strength of the data was broad based with ex-food, energy, and trade also topping estimates at 0.3% MoM vs. 0.1% MoM anticipated in an acceleration from last month's 0.2% MoM print. If there’s any positive signs it’s the yearly decline.”“Bottom line is inflation is in a down-trend but month-on-month it’s hotter than expected. Then, in March I expect it to be a 25 basis points after which they’ll hold to see how all these rate hikes have played out unless something dramatic happens.

☆ GameStop's third quarter disappoints on lack of hit titles, inflation pinch
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

GameStop launched a digital wallet earlier this year to enable transactions in a marketplace it is building for gamers and others to buy, sell and trade non-fungible tokens, or NFTs. However, with crypto winter setting in and the value of cryptocurrencies plummeting, GameStop's digital wallet ambitions face a bleak future. GameStop posted revenue of $1.19 billion in the third quarter, missing estimates of $1.36 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data. On an adjusted basis, the company lost 31 cents per share, compared with analysts' estimates of a loss of 28 cents per share. GameStop's expenses as a percentage of revenue was 32.7% in the quarter, down from 34.1% in the second quarter, as the company has tried to cut costs by reducing its workforce and shutting down stores.

LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - New G7 and European Union sanctions on Russian oil exports will have a muted impact on flows and global prices according to analysts polled by Reuters, as Russia is set to largely succeed in rerouting its trade eastward. Analysts at the Bank of Nova Scotia, however, saw oil export and production levels remaining relatively flat despite the sanctions. Up to 80-90% of Russian oil could still flow if Moscow seeks to flout the G7 price cap, a U.S. treasury official told Reuters last month, leaving 1-2 million bpd shut in. "The implementation of Russian sanctions ... will remove 1.5 million bpd of supply from the market. "While we believe (the price cap) would be very difficult to implement, it would directionally raise the likelihood of more Russian oil staying on the market at any price."

☆ Here's when Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees a 'true Fed pivot' coming
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors should not bank on a pivot from the Federal Reserve as the stock market enters a key period of earnings reports and inflation readings, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. "We don't think there's an imminent pivot coming anytime soon, in terms of a true pivot where they not only cause but really start cutting rates. Consensus earnings estimates for the next 12 months could be 20% too high, according to Morgan Stanley's models. And we just don't think that's priced," Wilson said. Wilson does think that investors can buy some stocks but only after their expectations are reset, such as through a guidance cut.

☆ Crypto’s bear market is unlike others before it. This time the Fed's steering the ship
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +17 min

In any other year, the bitcoin price would have skyrocketed after the BlackRock announcement, but it didn't. Bitcoin hit its all-time high on Nov. 8, less than a week after the Fed first introduced the tapering . "Bitcoin OGs want to believe that it's a risk-off asset – that's a long-term trajectory," said Burak Tamac, senior researcher at CryptoQuant. It's bitcoin that's received so much hostility about being environmentally unfriendly, but myths about the cryptocurrency's environmental impact are slowly being debunked . Beyond bitcoin, crypto remains just a little too out of reach for many.

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