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The ever-important U.S. corn crop may be most primed for a market miss due to an alarmingly low range of guesses. YIELDSAnalysts’ range on U.S. corn yield is a seven-year low and for soybeans it is at least a 13-year low. U.S. farmers did not have a banner corn crop primarily because of drought in western areas. The 2021 corn yield last January was unchanged from November, but otherwise the trade is looking for the smallest January move in corn yield in 14 years. Argentina’s corn crop is seen falling more than 5% to 52 million tonnes from 55 million in December.

CORN, SOY, WHEATCBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures declined notably on Jan. 3, the first trading day of 2023. Through Jan. 3, they cut about 3,500 contracts from their stance, resulting in a net short of 52,715 CBOT wheat futures and options contracts. Investors may have reduced CBOT corn length late last week with futures down 2.5% between Wednesday and Friday. Most-active CBOT soybean futures were unchanged over the last three sessions given the poor conditions in Argentina and possibly unfavorable weather in Brazil’s southernmost state offsetting U.S. demand concerns. They expect U.S. corn, soy and wheat ending stock estimates to rise along with Brazilian corn and soy crops, though a sizable decline is predicted for Argentina’s harvests.

The agency did not respond to requests for comment on its record monitoring animal research experiments nationally. The USDA inspector general has published at least three reports since 2014 critical of the agency’s lax oversight, though its criticism dates back to the 1990s. Neuralink says on its website that it champions animal welfare and tries to reduce animal testing where possible. Two academic studies conducted in 2009 and 2012 found that animal research committees approved between 98% and 99% of experiments proposed by researchers. Envigo was made to sign the consent decree giving up the beagles only after the USDA inspector general and the Justice Department investigated and found evidence of inhumane treatment.

☆ Exclusive: Musk’s Neuralink faces federal probe, employee backlash over animal tests
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Rachael Levy | Thomson Reuters | Award-Winning Journalist Covering Corporate Governance. Her Reporting Has Prompted Federal Investigations | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

Reuters could not determine the full scope of the federal investigation or whether it involved the same alleged problems with animal testing identified by employees in Reuters interviews. Musk has pushed hard to accelerate Neuralink’s progress, which depends heavily on animal testing, current and former employees said. Delcianna Winders, director of the Animal Law and Policy Institute at the Vermont Law and Graduate School, said it is “very unusual” for the USDA inspector general to investigate animal research facilities. In September, the company responded to employee concerns about its animal testing by holding a town hall to explain its processes. “We’re extremely careful,” he said, to make sure that testing is “confirmatory, not exploratory,” using animal testing as a last resort after trying other methods.

Over the five reports from August to January, the trade’s January corn yield misses are typically second-largest after August. Corn yield in 2018 and 2020 were unexpectedly revised sharply lower in January, though the seasons were very different. There is a very slight tendency for higher corn and soy yields in November to result in higher yields again in January, and vice versa, but the bias is probably too weak for reliability without additional statistics. U.S. corn and soybean yields - November to JanuaryThe November-January decade trend for soybean yields is evenly split five apiece, and both great and unsuccessful growing seasons sit on either side. Chinese corn, soybean and wheat imports and consumption were also unchanged despite demand concerns driven by mixed messaging on Beijing’s post-pandemic strategy.

The preliminary targets for 2023 corn and soy plantings and yields resemble the year-ago estimates. A year ago, USDA’s 2022 corn and soy acreages started at 92 million and 87.5 million as corn prices were favorable versus soybeans, but high input costs perhaps prevented an aggressive corn estimate. CBOT November soybeans to December cornBut 2022 corn acres fell well short of expectations starting with March intentions, likely because the trade was overestimating the number of available row crop acres. 2023 YIELDSFocus will soon shift to 2023, and USDA’s corn trend yield of 181.5 bpa could already be labeled as controversial. But just for fun, the agency exactly 10 years ago slated 2022 corn yield at 181, the same number shown a year ago.

U.S. corn yield is now nearly 10 bushels per acre lower than the earliest projections, though the trade has anticipated that decline very well. Analysts have nearly nailed the last two corn yield estimates, their best-known performance for these months. When considering all of the past 20 years, U.S. soybean yield in January was lower than in October eight times. This is the third month in a row where USDA’s corn yield is lower than in the previous month. In the last 20 years, U.S. corn yield was lower in both September and October four other times, most recently in 2020.

Based on U.S. export inspection data, the United States exported roughly 145 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds in calendar year 2021. In 2021, some 42% of October-December soybean shipments to China left from the U.S. Gulf versus 52% from Pacific ports, though the Gulf share was 58% in 2020. Through 29 days of September, soybean sales to all destinations of 3.1 million tonnes were an 11-year low for the month. About two-thirds of all U.S. grain shipments to Mexico are shipped via interior methods such as rail, but the other third relies on the Gulf. Interior exports accounted for 14% of all U.S. grain and oilseeds last year, third behind the Gulf and Pacific regions.

☆ U.S. Charges 47 People in Connection With $250 Million Covid-Aid Fraud
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Sadie Gurman | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Many of the organizations falsely claiming to be serving food to low-income children were sponsored by a Minnesota-based nonprofit called Feeding Our Future. The Justice Department charged 47 people in connection with an alleged scheme that stole more than $250 million from a federal program that fed low-income children, in what officials called the largest theft yet uncovered from a coronavirus pandemic aid program. Federal prosecutors said those charged created entities that claimed to be providing meals to tens of thousands of children who didn’t exist. The defendants then sought reimbursement through the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s child-nutrition programs and used the money to buy luxury cars, real estate, jewelry and international vacations, prosecutors said. Many of the organizations claiming to be serving food were sponsored by a Minnesota-based nonprofit called Feeding Our Future, which submitted their claims for reimbursement.

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