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This season so far, the total is already more than 1.5 million — which would make it the province’s third-worst annual result, just a few weeks into May, with months more of wildfire season still to burn. In the United States, by contrast, those who live in fear of wildfire are probably breathing a bit easier. Last year was a relatively light one, with fewer than eight million acres burning across the country — close to the two-decade average and well below the damage of several especially scarring recent seasons. But a new lesson from the evolving science of wildfire is about how far its toxic smoke spreads and how widely its noxious impacts are distributed. In fact, according to one not-yet-published study led by Stanford researchers exploring the distribution of wildfire smoke, an estimated 60 percent of the smoke impact of American wildfire is experienced by those living outside the states where the trees are in flames.
The 2007 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Britain was traced to a faulty drainage pipe at a research facility. In 2015 the Department of Defense discovered that a germ-warfare program in Utah had mistakenly mailed almost 200 samples of live anthrax over 12 years. Lab accidents happen, and they aren’t especially rare. In January the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity issued a series of draft recommendations for tightening regulation and oversight. And many of those who see the Covid pandemic as merely the sort of pathogenic disaster that lab accidents might cause agree that greater safety is needed.
This is a pace of about four million excess deaths per year. Excess mortality tells a somewhat different story. With a couple of brief exceptions, excess deaths have held steady for about a year now in a range between about 8,000 and 15,000 per day. At some point we may simply stop referring to these as excess deaths and incorporate them instead into higher mortality baselines. Excess mortality, too.
This pattern does not apply only to research purporting to show evidence of a natural origin. Perhaps, if you staked a lot on that initial raccoon-dog report, it does make sense to turn your dial a bit in the opposite direction. Across a pandemic in which the public was desperate for new information, we have probably gotten too used to treating hurriedly prepared reports as definitive science. “It is really important to try to understand the origin of Covid-19,” Bloom says. I think part of science, and part of critical thinking in general, is supposed to be a high level of comfort with uncertainty and unknowns.
Opinion | Who’s to Blame for a Million Deaths?
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( David Wallace-Wells | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
“Something clearly went wrong,” Anthony Fauci told me, reflecting on the long pandemic, in an interview for The New York Times Magazine. It was those who forced essential workers to stay on the job and those who kept ordering delivery from them. It was those who cut the line to get vaccinated, then those who didn’t get vaccinated, then those who stopped wearing masks once they did. It was the unvaccinated and it was Joe Biden saying “pandemic of the unvaccinated.” It was the C.D.C. And it was those people who kept annoyingly insisting that the pandemic wasn’t over, when, in truth, well, it both was and wasn’t.
Dr. Fauci Looks Back: ‘Something Clearly Went Wrong’ In his most extensive interview yet, Anthony Fauci wrestles with the hard lessons of the pandemic — and the decisions that will define his legacy. But when people say, “Fauci shut down the economy” — it wasn’t Fauci. But somehow or other, the general public didn’t get that feeling that the vulnerable are really, really heavily weighted toward the elderly. We also had a public-health system that we thought was really, really good. But it was really, really antiquated.
Good Climate-Change News Is Fit to Print
  + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Holman W. Jenkins | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Call it the calamity of climate journalism. After 40 years, writers are still serving up a binary issue, with idiotic back-and-forths over who is a denier in ways that work, sometimes deliberately, to undermine clear thinking and any concession to the changing science. Better can be done and last weekend a newish New York Times writer, David Wallace-Wells , in his customary excess of words, reprised his own concession since writing a 2017 New York Magazine article titled “The Uninhabitable Earth.” He now says: “Just a few years ago climate projections for this century looked quite apocalyptic.” He acknowledges a new consensus that has reduced expected warming to “between two and three degrees” Celsius, or less than half the forecast of, say, the 2018 U.S. National Climate Assessment.
Beyond Catastrophe A New Climate Reality Is Coming Into View By David Wallace-WellsYou can never really see the future, only imagine it, then try to make sense of the new world when it arrives. (A United Nations report released this week ahead of the COP27 climate conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, confirmed that range.) A little lower is possible, with much more concerted action; a little higher, too, with slower action and bad climate luck. There were climate-change skeptics in some very conspicuous positions of global power. New emissions peaks are expected both this year and next, which means that more damage is being done to the future climate of the planet right now than at any previous point in history.
Climate change has led to roughly 1.2 degrees Celsius of warming so far, making the earth hotter now than it has ever been in the long history of civilization. Not very long ago, scientists warned that this could cause four or five degrees Celsius of warming, giving rise to existential fears about apocalyptic futures. But, while ambitious and difficult, it now seems possible — a very different sort of future, neither a best-case nor a worst-case scenario. What follows is a partial, hopscotching geography of the jagged new world that climate change is making. As much as our planet has already been transformed by climate change, it will be transformed far more in the decades to come.
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