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On the surface, it may seem simple — global stocks are rallying, so there must be one universal driver, right? When this happens, the yen should strengthen and improve shareholder value in Japanese stocks, Arone said. "All of that gives you the ingredients you need to push stocks higher — not only U.S. stocks, but global stocks — in the next 12 months or so," he said. "I think that international stocks — Japan, Europe — have more room to go. Similar to Kelly, Kleintop recommended a more broad-based approach to playing this global rally.
Persons: It's, Charles Schwab's, Jeffrey Kleintop, they've, David Kelly, Michael Arone, Kelly, Arone, , Kleintop, Fred Imbert Organizations: U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, CNBC, Nvidia, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange, State, Locations: United States, U.S, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, Asia, America, Eastern Europe, — Japan
New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump is once again warning the stock market is doomed unless voters return him to the White House. He went on to say a loss for him would spark “the largest stock market crash we’ve ever had.”But there is no evidence to support that claim. “This is just an encore presentation of what he said last time,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. In fact, the stock market has generated higher annual returns when Democrats are in power. It’s true that Trump’s surprise victory in November 2016 helped spark an impressive rally in the stock market as investors bet on deregulation, tax cuts and infrastructure.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, you’re, ” Trump, , Brian Gardner, “ There’s, ” David Kelly, , Kelly, Joe Biden, Biden, Hogan, ” Sam Stovall, he’s, “ It’s, Dow, ” Kelly, Gardner, James Singer, CNN it’s “, ” Singer, Jerome Powell —, Powell, Jerome Powell, Greg Valliere, Trump’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, White, Trump, Asset Management, Dow, Riley, CFRA Research, GOP, , Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Biden, Republicans, Democrat, Research, , Republican, AGF Investments Locations: New York, Washington, Trump, China
JPMorgan's David Kelly: We don't see inflation reigniting
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's David Kelly: We don't see inflation reignitingDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the S&P 500 reaching the $5,000 mark, whether this earnings season says something about equities, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s Fed panel react to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisionJPMorgan’s David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen Bitterly and Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed decision to keep rates unchanged.
Persons: David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen, Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron Organizations: Watch
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed cuts come down to the labor market, says Morgan Stanley’s Jim CaronDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth Management head of North America investments, and Jim Caron, head of Macro Strategies for Global Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed decision to keep rates unchanged.
Persons: Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron David Kelly, Kristen, Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fed, JPMorgan Asset Management, Citi Global Wealth Management Locations: North America
Read previewThe nation's central bank is gearing up to make its first big decision of 2024 — and while it likely won't be the interest rate cut many Americans are hoping for, it's set to bring them closer to that relief. The Fed hinted at how many interest rate cuts Americans can expect this year in its December Summary of Economic Projections. New labor market data out this Friday will show how employment looked at the start of 2024, and some labor market experts already think 2024 will see a cooler job market . That continuing strength in the labor market does represent a slowdown from the hot post-pandemic recovery in 2022. "The Fed has already signaled its willingness to cut rates, and the market has responded accordingly," the lawmakers wrote.
Persons: , it's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nick Bunker, would've, Greg McBride, David Kelly, Kelly, Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, Jacky Rosen, Sheldon Whitehouse Organizations: Service, Business, Federal, Federal Reserve, Spelman College, Labor Statistics, Fed, North America, Morgan Asset Management, Democratic Locations: Sens
Markets are closely monitoring Q4 earnings results, which began rolling out in mid-January, since they give much-needed clarity on the prior year while setting the tone for the year ahead. AdvertisementWhat to expect during the Q4 earnings seasonEarnings seasons often bring surprises, but there are also bankable bets. But we're going to be driven more by the macro, if we're excluding these mega-cap tech stocks." 3 sectors with boom-or-bust potentialWhile the strategists Business Insider spoke with didn't provide investing recommendations, several shared which sectors they're watching in Q4. Bianco believes the tech sector's earnings will rise over 20% this year.
Persons: , Matt Stucky, Stucky, David Kelly, UBS Josh Jamner, That's, Jamner, Carol Schleif, Schleif, there's, Anthony Saglimbene, David Bianco, Saglimbene, Bianco, Brad Klapmeyer, Klapmeyer, " Bianco, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, BMO's Schleif, Indrani De, De, she's, he'd, that's Organizations: Service, Business, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Asset Management, UBS, ClearBridge Investments, BMO Family Office, DWS, Macquarie Asset Management, FTSE Russell Locations: Americas
BNY Mellon Wealth Management's chief investment officer explained why stocks have limited upside. Sinead Colton Grant has hit the ground running in her new role as the chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. What to expect in the economy this yearThe theme of BNY Mellon Wealth Management's 2024 outlook report is "a healthy slowdown." However, Colton Grant acknowledged that there are serious discrepancies between how high- and low-income households experience the economy. 5 top places to invest nowBNY Mellon Wealth Management may be neutral on equities broadly, but it has a bullish overweight rating on US stocks.
Persons: Sinead Colton Grant, BNY, she's, BNY Mellon, Colton Grant, David Kelly, Colton, Kelly, Colton Grant's Organizations: BNY Mellon Wealth, BNY Mellon Wealth Management, BNY Mellon, BNY, JPMorgan Asset Management, Business, Mellon Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Mellon, Management, Asset Management, BMO Capital Markets Locations: BlackRock, Invesco
5 charts that explain why stocks took off last year
  + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Stocks ended on a high note last year, but were tested by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, banking turmoil, debt ceiling worries and war in the Middle East. Many early-year consensus predictions about what 2023 would bring — including a recession and several rate cuts — didn’t pan out. CNN spoke with five investors about the biggest lessons they learned and how they’ve helped shape their 2024 outlooks. Fundamentals have to start matteringThe S&P 500 index gained 24% last year despite an earnings recession, often defined as at least two straight quarters of corporate profit losses. Fourth-quarter earnings, which kick off on Friday with results from big banks, are expected to grow about 1% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Persons: Stocks, they’ve, Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, David Kelly, , Kelly, Yung, Yu Ma, Don’t, George Cipolloni, Wall, Leslie Thompson, don’t, Thompson, she’s eyeing, FactSet, , Amanda Agati Organizations: New, New York CNN —, CNN, Asset Management, Treasury, BMO Wealth Management, Penn Mutual Asset Management, Fed, Spectrum Wealth Management, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Companies, PNC Asset Management Locations: New York
Andrew Kelly | ReutersAfter years of unbridled consumer spending on everything from home improvement to dream vacations, some companies are now finding the limits of their pricing power. Nike last week lowered its annual sales growth forecast and unveiled plans to cut costs by $2 billion over the next three years. "Goods companies don't have the pricing power they did in the pandemic, and some in the hotel and travel [industries] — they don't have the pricing power they did in the immediate post-Covid," he added. Sales growth for companies in the S&P 500 is on track to average 2.7% this year, according to mid-December analyst estimates posted by FactSet. Consumer spending on apparel and groceries rose 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, from the year-earlier period, according to the survey.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Mills, Joe Cavaretta, David Kelly, FactSet, Kelly, isn't, airfare, John F, Bob Jordan, Jordan, Ohsung Kwon Organizations: FedEx, Reuters, Shipping, Airlines, Target, Nike, Spirit Airlines, Hasbro, Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International, South Florida Sun Sentinel, Tribune, Service, Getty, Florida Sun, Morgan Asset Management, FactSet, Mastercard, Starbucks, Airline, U.S . Department of Labor, Kennedy International, Southwest, CNBC, Detroit automakers, Toyota, Cox Automotive, Bank of America Locations: New York, speedier, Fort, South
Goldman Sachs researchers are projecting oil prices to jump nearly 20% next year. AdvertisementAs the holiday season approaches, drivers are experiencing a welcome respite at gas stations, but those savings will likely go away in the new year. Last week, West Texas Intermediate crude, a benchmark for oil prices, dipped to approximately $73 per barrel, a significant 20% drop from its late September peak of $94. "The big surprise of 2023 is stronger than expected non-OPEC supply growth, which we think will slow heading into 2024," Struyven said. And what the US economy doesn't need in the near future is Americans tightening their budgets after their summer of fun and the holiday spending season.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , GasBuddy, Daan Struyven, CNBC's, Dado Ruvic, Struyven, David Kelly, We're, Kelly Organizations: Service, West, AAA, OPEC, Reuters, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Biden, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Energy Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Morgan Asset Management Locations: West Texas, OPEC, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia
While many experts don't see inflation getting back to normal just yet, it could in a year or two. Consumer price inflation has been mostly slowing this year. Some experts see inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index being around 2% — the Fed's target year-over-year rate of price growth — by some time in 2024. Advertisement"We foresee headline and core CPI inflation around 2.2% y/y in Q4 2024," Daco said in his commentary. Goldman Sachs forecasts that measure is expected to cool off and see a 2.4% year-over-year increase in December 2024.
Persons: J.P, David Kelly, , Gregory Daco, Daco, Kelly, ING's James Knightley, Sarah Foster's, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick Organizations: Morgan, Service, Consumer, CPI, Morgan Asset Management, Bankrate, Federal Reserve, Federal, Business
But the cost of crude oil has been largely declining since the middle of October. The average for a gallon of gas in the United States, meanwhile, dropped to $3.37, according to AAA. This “steady, if slow” decline in gas prices, said an AAA spokesperson, may soon gain speed if oil prices continue their descent. They’re more concerned with economic weakness in China and an increase in oil production in the United States. In the first week of November, US crude oil production reached a new record of 13.2 million barrels per day.
Persons: ” David Kelly, , ” David Morrison, refiners, ” Craig Erlam, Brent, Chris Isidore, , Ted Decker, Refinitiv, Read, Homebuyers Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, AAA, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Trade, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, . West Texas Intermediate, International Energy Agency, Revenue, National Association of Realtors, Census Locations: New York, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, China, Iran, America, United
Inflation cooled off in October
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Inflation cooled off in October based on new year-over-year data out Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index increased 3.2% year over year in October, less than the year-over-year increase of 3.7% in September. AdvertisementInflation cooled but is still above the Fed's 2% target per the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, for October. The year-over-year increase in October was just less than the forecast of 3.3%, and the increase is less than the September's 3.7% year-over-year increase . AdvertisementThe food index didn't see as large an increase as the shelter index, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%.
Persons: , David Kelly, Kelly, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morgan Asset Management, PMI, Federal Reserve, Federal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's still a 50% chance of a December rate hike, says Morgan Stanley's Jim CaronJPMorgan's David Kelly, Citi's Kristen Bitterly, Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron, and Paul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed decision and more.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron JPMorgan's David Kelly, Citi's Kristen, Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron, Paul McCulley
CNN —Paddy Cosgrave, the chief executive of Web Summit, stepped down Saturday after several Big Tech companies withdrew from the company’s upcoming annual technology conference over his comments on the Israel-Hamas war. On Tuesday, Cosgrave posted a nearly 600-word statement on Web Summit’s blog to apologize and clarify his stance. A spokesperson for Web Summit told CNN that the company will appoint a new CEO as soon as possible. “Web Summit 2023 in Lisbon will go ahead as planned,” the spokesperson added. Cosgrave, 41, co-founded Web Summit in 2009 with David Kelly and Daire Hickey.
Persons: CNN — Paddy Cosgrave, ” Cosgrave, , , Cosgrave, unreservedly, David Kelly, Daire Hickey Organizations: CNN, Web, Big Tech, Ministry of Health, Amnesty, Google, Siemens, Amazon, Web Summit Locations: Israel, Gaza, Geneva, Lisbon
Investors shouldn't be scared off by slower economic growth caused by higher-for-longer interest rates and inflation, according to JPMorgan Asset Management (JPMAM). For reference, JPMAM called for forward long-term returns of 4.3% in 2021. The firm added that productivity gains from AI will likely add a tenth of a percentage point to global growth in the next decade. The long-awaited reversal for international stocks won't happen overnight, JPMAM strategists said. The firm is highly optimistic about the asset class after its brutal multi-year selloff and expects 4.6% and 5.1% long-term returns for those groups, respectively.
Persons: it's, JPMAM, David Kelly, Kelly, Monica Issar, Grace Koo, , they're, Bob Michele, who's, he's, Bonds, REITs Organizations: Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, US, JPMorgan, Management, Fed, JPMorgan Asset Management, Investors Locations: Europe, Australasia, Real
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic resilience is boosting bond yields, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the vote to remove Rep. McCarthy as speaker, the state of the bond market, the economy-at-large and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly, McCarthy Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are a lot of signs an economic slowdown is coming, says JPMorgan's David KellyEric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald head of equity derivatives & cross Aasset, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action and upcoming jobs and inflation data.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
Watch CNBC's full interview with Eric Johnston and David Kelly
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Eric Johnston and David KellyEric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald head of equity derivatives & cross Aasset, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action and upcoming jobs and inflation data.
Persons: Eric Johnston, David Kelly Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
EY chief economist Gregory Daco thinks "consumers are becoming more conservative with their spending." Coming up is another headwind: the restart of federal student-loan payments. The different economic threats means consumer spending growth may not be so hot next year, as consumers are already reducing their spending. Other economists have pointed out how the upcoming student-loan payment restart will have an impact on the economy. Have you changed your spending habits or are you spending less on certain items given the restart of student-loan payments, fewer savings, and other factors?
Persons: Gregory Daco, Taylor Swift, it's, Daco, Torsten Sløk, NYU Stern, David Kelly Organizations: Service, Consumer, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, NYU, Morgan Asset Management, AAA, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon, American, , mhoff@insider.com
But there are signs that both supply and demand will bring prices back down in the coming months. AAA reported this week that the average price for a gallon of gas in the US was $3.88. AdvertisementAdvertisementAn atypical spike in pricesThe increase in gas prices is unusual, as we typically see some relief after the summer surge as demand wanes. If true, the worries about the impact of rising gas prices on consumer spending and inflation are overblown. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn recent years, with oil prices closer to $70 a barrel, gas prices have typically been close to $3 a gallon.
Persons: Mohamed el, Saudi Arabia's, Mohamed Oun, there's, Jorge León, Mike Wirth, we've, hasn't, Wirth, Grace Smith, David Kelly, We're, Kelly, Citi's, Ed Morse Organizations: Service, AAA, Allianz, Saudi, Reuters, Rystad Energy, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Biden, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Energy Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Chevron, Bloomberg, Denver, MediaNews, Getty, Morgan Asset Management, Citigroup, CNN Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Wall, Silicon, California, Clearwater Beach, Tampa , Florida, Libya, Ukraine, Brazil, Canada, Venezuela, Guyana
Instead, gasoline prices are getting more expensive and are just pennies away from their highest level so far this year. Are rising oil prices another item to add to the list? How high do you think oil prices will go? When you adjust for inflation, oil isn’t that high right now. I think that we are going to see continued high prices for a lot of stuff, including gasoline, but I don’t think we’re gonna see an acceleration in prices.
Persons: David Kelly, Bell, Kelly, it’s, we’re, We’ve, — aren’t, Eva Rothenberg, Sen, Bernie Sanders, CNN’s Jake Tapper, , , Jared, Kay Jewelers, Parija Kavilanz, Virginia Drosos Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Federal, UAW, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford, Vermont Independent, Signet Jewelers, Signet, Diamonds, Goldman, Global Retailing Conference Locations: New York, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Libya, Ukraine, Gulf of Mexico, United States, Nile
A view of the exterior of the JP Morgan Chase & Co. corporate headquarters in New York City May 20, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 13 (Reuters) - J.P.Morgan Asset Management said on Wednesday it expects no further interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve in this cycle, after crucial inflation data appeared to remain on its downward path. "Despite still rising oil prices in early September, we expect the impact of oil price spikes on CPI to be limited," J.P.Morgan's Chief Global Strategist David Kelly said in a note. "We still believe that, barring some further shock, year-over-year headline consumption deflator inflation will be below the Fed's 2% target by the fourth quarter of 2024." Reporting by Reshma Rockie George in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Morgan Chase, Mike Segar, David Kelly, Reshma Rockie, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: Co, New York City, REUTERS, J.P.Morgan, Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Reshma Rockie George, Bengaluru
All this uncertainty has led markets to lack conviction, flip-flopping as conflicting narratives around inflation rates and Fed hikes prevail. But this week’s readings — just a few days ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting -— could give the markets direction. “Getting core inflation to 2% won’t come quickly, and upside risks remain,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. And while the Fed generally looks at core inflation, the impact of crude prices often extends into other areas of the economy. Pensions and inflation adjustments: The UAW wants a return of traditional pension payment plans and retiree health care for all UAW members.
Persons: There’s, , Price, Jason Pride, Michael Reynolds, Glenmede, , Greg McBride, David Kelly, Chris Isidore, Shawn Fain, they’re, Chris, Jordan Valinsky, Instacart, Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United Auto Workers, Federal, Consumer, of America, JPMorgan Asset Management, UAW, Ford, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, Workers, Union Locations: New York, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, America, Instacart
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