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☆ J.P.Morgan expects no further Fed interest rate hikes this cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A view of the exterior of the JP Morgan Chase & Co. corporate headquarters in New York City May 20, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 13 (Reuters) - J.P.Morgan Asset Management said on Wednesday it expects no further interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve in this cycle, after crucial inflation data appeared to remain on its downward path. "Despite still rising oil prices in early September, we expect the impact of oil price spikes on CPI to be limited," J.P.Morgan's Chief Global Strategist David Kelly said in a note. "We still believe that, barring some further shock, year-over-year headline consumption deflator inflation will be below the Fed's 2% target by the fourth quarter of 2024." Reporting by Reshma Rockie George in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Morgan Chase, Mike Segar, David Kelly, Reshma Rockie, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: Co, New York City, REUTERS, J.P.Morgan, Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Reshma Rockie George, Bengaluru

☆ This week’s US inflation data is very important. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

All this uncertainty has led markets to lack conviction, flip-flopping as conflicting narratives around inflation rates and Fed hikes prevail. But this week’s readings — just a few days ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting -— could give the markets direction. “Getting core inflation to 2% won’t come quickly, and upside risks remain,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. And while the Fed generally looks at core inflation, the impact of crude prices often extends into other areas of the economy. Pensions and inflation adjustments: The UAW wants a return of traditional pension payment plans and retiree health care for all UAW members.

Persons: There’s, —, Price, Jason Pride, Michael Reynolds, Glenmede, ”, Greg McBride, David Kelly, Chris Isidore, Shawn Fain, they’re, Chris, Jordan Valinsky, Instacart, “ Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United Auto Workers, Federal, Consumer, of America, JPMorgan Asset Management, UAW, Ford, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, Workers, Union Locations: New York, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, America, Instacart

☆ Here are 7 ways investors can be greedy while others are fearful as China's potential property crisis unfolds, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Here are the seven smartest ways to invest in Chinese markets, according to UBS. Stimulus should keep Chinese stocks from sinkingHowever, UBS believes that plenty of pain has already been priced into Chinese stocks. Naturally, China's property market turmoil has inspired comparisons to the US housing market bubble that led to the global financial crisis, but Yu is confident that such fears are overblown. "The government has the toolkit to minimize the risk of having something that is systematically disastrous in the financial markets," Yu said. If China's growth exceeds expectations, companies in the consumer discretionary and materials sectors will be among the biggest beneficiaries, according to UBS.

Persons: David Kelly, Xingchen Yu, Solita Marcelli, Yu, there's Organizations: US, UBS, Asset Management Locations: China, Shanghai, People's Republic, Swiss, Beijing, Taiwan

☆ 'We're one gust of wind away from recession': A JPMorgan global strategy chief shares why the economy is still at risk despite rising optimism — and 3 places he's bullish on now
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"We're one gust of wind away from recession," Kelly said. While he hasn't seen any cracks in that industry recently, he's wary of dismissing that as a risk, especially if interest rates climb further. The smartest investments to make now are in Europe, Japan, and emerging markets excluding China, Kelly said. But emerging markets are where many of the most tantalizing opportunities are, in Kelly's opinion. An exception within emerging markets is China.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, Kelly, David Kelly, Kelly inched, It's, hasn't, homebuilding, it's, he's Organizations: Asset Management, Fed, Federal, JPMorgan Asset Management, 19.9x, Japan's Nikkei Locations: Europe, Japan, China

☆ We'll be at 2% inflation by the end of next year, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe'll be at 2% inflation by the end of next year, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the more significant risk for the Federal Reserve, what investors should assume about the economy, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Federal Reserve

☆ Investors are betting that rate cuts are coming early next year. Here's what market experts are urging you do right now to cash in when rates do fall.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

10-year Treasury yields are surging as the economy stays hot. For the first time since 2007, 10-year yields rose above 4.3% on Thursday after seeing a 31% surge since April. If or when that eventually happens, Treasury yields are likely to follow, presenting those who hold the assets with an opportunity. Bond yields fall when demand for the assets rise, pushing up their price. David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, sees 10-year rates averaging 3.7% in the years ahead.

Persons: Gautam Khanna, Jason Draho, Lawrence Gillium, Craig Brothers, Brothers, Leslie Falconio, David Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Wall, Insight Investment, UBS Global Wealth, LPL, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Morgan Asset Management, Monopoly, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

☆ Why has the stock market been weak lately? It's not mysterious
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

.SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 1-month Since then, it's been one excuse after another. Everything Tuesday was down about 1.0-1.25% midday, including the equal-weight S & P 500 (RSP) the market-cap weighted S & P 500, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the small-cap Russell 2000, but most ended down a fraction of a percent. At nearly 5% yield, money market funds are still sucking in money, even with the S & P 500 up 18% this year. I mentioned Monday that money market inflows reaccelerated last week: $21 billion worth of inflows were added, according to Goldman Sachs. "The pace of money market flows reflects a larger apathy towards stock," Todd Sohn from Strategas told clients.

Persons: it's, Moody's, Mike O'Rourke, Dow Jones, Sellers, Harry Whitton, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Todd Sohn, Strategas, David Kelly Organizations: Bank of Japan, Jones Trading, Regional Banking, Nasdaq, Chief Global, Morgan Asset Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S

☆ JPMorgan's David Kelly: Keep an eye on overpriced valuations, as they will be the first to fall off
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's David Kelly: Keep an eye on overpriced valuations, as they will be the first to fall offDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the potential for a soft landing, concerns about overpriced valuations, and opportunities in high-quality fixed income markets

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ The economy feels worse than it actually is because people were spoiled by the snap-back recovery after the pandemic crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Americans feel bad about the economy, even though data shows a booming labor market. The recovery from the pandemic recession reset everyone's expectations about what a good economy looks like. Americans are feeling bad about the economy, and some of that is likely due to inflation eating at their budgets. Consumer confidence is still low, and, as JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly writes, Americans feel an "unreasonable level of gloom." In short, the things that used to make Americans feel good or bad about the economy aren't as consequential anymore.

Persons: Aaron Terrazas, Labor Julie Su, that's, David Kelly, Kelly, Terrazas, —, would've Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Pew Research Center, JPMorgan Asset Management, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, America

☆ I strongly believe this is not an inflationary economy, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI strongly believe this is not an inflationary economy, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss June's job report, Fed's inflation fight, latest market trends, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ The odds of a significant recession are ‘going down’ right now, says JPMorgan’s David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe odds of a significant recession are ‘going down’ right now, says JPMorgan’s David KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, and Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Securities, join ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss what the latest strong job reports suggest, the odds of a recession, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan’s David Kelly David Kelly, Savita Subramanian, ‘ Squawk Organizations: Morgan Asset Management, Bank of America Securities

☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street is strangely calm about the debt ceiling. That could change this month
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Dire warnings about the economic chaos and catastrophe that will ensue if the US debt ceiling isn’t lifted soon abound. The debt ceiling crisis of 2011 caused Standard and Poor’s to downgrade US debt for the first time in history. Schwenkler says to expect “a lot more volatility” if debt ceiling issues don’t appear resolved by the last week of the month. By contrast, recovery from a debt-default crisis would likely start the day Congress, belatedly, suspended the debt ceiling,” he added. “A misstep over the debt ceiling would subject businesses and consumers to an economic shockwave,” he added.

☆ How a shockingly resilient jobs market saved the US from a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Several measures from Friday's jobs report show the labor market is stronger than it's been in decades. But Terrazas pointed to potential concerns in the labor market and for interest rates. "If it's the former, it's just a matter of time before gravity catches up with the labor market," Terrazas said. Overall though, the different robust labor market data suggests the US could maybe avoid a recession as has been the case so far in 2023. Despite potential risks in the job market, Pollak believes there's a possibility that the US continues to avoid a recession.

☆ JPMorgan's David Kelly expects the Fed to change its forward guidance
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's David Kelly expects the Fed to change its forward guidanceCiti's Kristen Bitterly, JPMorgan's David Kelly and Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed ahead of the imminent decision.

☆ The US economy slowed dramatically at the start of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The advance estimate for GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the US economy is slowing. US GDP grew at annualized rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023. That's below the forecast of 2.0% and way below the 2.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2022. That's based on the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP). In short, the economy remains on the edge of a swamp – not in recession yet but close to one."

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - A debt ceiling fight is looming in the U.S. yet again, giving investors another worry for markets this year. Here is a Q&A about the implications for markets:WHAT IS THE DEBT CEILING? The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. Outstanding government debt, nominal gross domestic product and federal limit to borrowWHEN WILL THE U.S. HIT THE DEBT CEILING? Some Treasury bills (T-bills) are featuring a premium in their yields that may be tied to an elevated default risk, according to some analysts.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JP Morgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JP Morgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserves rate policy plan, the Chinese economy's influence on U.S. inflation, and investment opportunities in international stocks.

☆ Canada's plugging its labor shortage with 1 million people moving to the country last year, while Biden is maintaining Trump-like policies that keep immigrants out
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Jason Lalljee | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

It's part of an effort to address the country's labor shortage, Canada's immigration minister said. The US could solve its labor shortage too, experts told Insider, but Biden would have to be bolder. President Joe Biden's current course of action could mean that the labor shortage in the US is never really solved. Biden is replacing Trump-like anti-immigration policies with his ownThat's a major reason why the persisting labor shortage will likely never resolve. It's in direct opposition to the kind of policy changes that Peri said the US needs to make to address the labor shortage.

☆ Employee bargaining power is limited with wage growth below inflation, says JPM's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEmployee bargaining power is limited with wage growth below inflation, says JPM's David KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserves rate policy plan, the Chinese economy's influence on U.S. inflation, and investment opportunities in international stocks.

☆ Premarket stocks: Five questions for the Federal Reserve as the banking crisis drags on
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

A policy rate announcement is expected on Wednesday along with new economic projections, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will face the press to answer questions. Is the Fed’s fight against inflation destabilizing the banking system? The US banking system is under a lot of pressure right now. Lagarde opted to portray that rate increase as a signal that the financial system remains strong. Yet, ironically, the banking mess is now helping tech companies and cryptocurrencies as investors flock out of the banking system in search of alternative safe spaces to store their cash.

☆ The stock market is going to be trading flat as long as risk-free assets offer much more yield
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, markets are still reeling from the SVB fiasco, but there's a simpler reason why the stock market is going to be trading flat for the foreseeable future. Banking turmoil aside, the stock market doesn't have much momentum as long as investors are getting much higher yields on risk-free assets. Even before Silicon Valley Bank crashed, investors were feeling the pain of a volatile stock market. What's your prediction for the stock market through the first half of this year? Zurich-listed shares of Credit Suisse are down more than 58% early Monday.

☆ 4 steps the Fed needs to take to calm markets after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and what investors should remember amid the chaos, according to JPMorgan's chief strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Fed needs to stop raising interest rates now, says David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management. Step one: don't hike interest rates any more. "You just pause on interest rates and you say that we're making good progress on inflation," he said. "What you need to do in the long run is have a very steady level of interest rates," he said. He explained that interest rates do a bad job controlling demand and end up creating bubbles and economic problems.

☆ US expected to report strong consumer price increases in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists said Tuesday's report remained important for policymakers despite the angst in financial markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely increased by 0.4% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Food prices are expected to have risen moderately after climbing 0.5% in January. Gasoline prices likely increased, but overall energy prices probably eased slightly because of a decrease in the cost of energy services. With rents remaining hot, services less energy, probably recorded another month of strong price gains after rising 0.5% in January.

☆ Companies could lower grocery store prices if the US passed immigration reform, says a major food CEO: 'It's a crisis out here in terms of labor availability'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Jason Lalljee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford told Time that allowing more immigration would help ease costs in the stretched industry. One food CEO is pointing to an untapped pool of people who could help businesses ease their labor shortage and lower prices for Americans: immigrants. To get some immigration reform," Beth Ford, the head of Land O'Lakes, a massive supplier of dairy goods, told Time's John Simons. It's a crisis out here in terms of labor availability." Amid labor shortage problems, Ford said that it's important to keep in mind that the demand for food is only growing.

☆ Why the 2023 stock market rally may be over already
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —So much for that big stock market comeback this year. At one point in mid-January, the average of 30 blue chips was up nearly 4% in 2023. It’s harder to justify more expensive valuations for the market in an environment where higher interest rates will likely eat into profits. He speculated that if inflation doesn’t cool off soon, the Fed may need to keep raising rates all the way up to 6%. “If there is a recession, profits will likely fall sharply.”Still, Kelly is cautiously optimistic that 2024 and beyond will be better years for earnings, and therefore stocks.

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