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The biggest risks US businesses face in 2024
  + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
But, while businesses have plenty to be grateful for and much to be optimistic about, the coast isn’t clear. Last week, surveys from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and The Conference Board detailed the biggest risks that businesses are currently worried about. Here are some of the biggest risks for American businesses in 2024. Those financial stresses can reduce the willingness of banks to lend to others businesses and also to consumers,” she said. Bank earnings look really bad this quarter.
Persons: there’s, , John Maynard Keynes, , ” Dana Peterson, Bill Dunkelberg, ” Peterson, ” Suzanne Clark, We’re, Mike Johnson, Chuck Schumer, Fitch, Clark, JPMorgan Chase, Nicole Goodkind, Krystal Hur, FactSet, Martin Luther King Jr, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, US, of Commerce, of American, Conference Board, Conference, CNN, Fed, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, chamber’s State of American, AAA, Moody’s Investors Service, US Chamber, Commerce’s, Google, Citigroup, Bank, JPMorgan, FactSet, Revenue, Profit, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Bank of America, FDIC, Citi, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Alcoa, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, Wells, Corporate America, chamber’s State, BlackRock, Amazon, Argentina, Japan
Experts in housing, building, and urban planning say it may be difficult to convert office space to livable, likeable residential housing, but there’s an urgent reason they’re trying. More office space is sitting empty in the United States than at any point since 1979, Moody’s Analytics reported earlier this week. By some estimates, only 3% of New York City office buildings and 2% in downtown Denver are suited for residential conversions. Office space and homes are two fundamentally different types of buildings, according to builders and architects. Do you have another building where you can move them?”As result, according to Theodos, office conversions are not a solution to either the empty office glut or the housing supply shortage.
Persons: Biden, , Harold Bordwin, Keen, Brett Theodos, ” Bordwin, , ” Maren Reepmeyer, ” Theodos, , Nathaniel Meyersohn, Donald Judd Organizations: DC CNN, Moody’s, National Association of Realtors, Summit Capital Partners, Metropolitan Housing, Policy Center, Urban Institute, , CBRE, Wacker, Chicago Business Locations: Washington, New York, Boston, Cleveland, United States, Manhattan, , New York City, Denver, Chicago, Theodos
Washington, DC CNN —Renters and homeowners experience inflation differently; and right now, renters are taking a much more painful hit. While shelter inflation has come down over the past few months, in December, the shelter index was still 6.2% higher year over year. Inflation divide between renters and homeownersTwo things are driving the divide between how homeowners and renters experience inflation. And 64% of homeowners have a mortgage rate of 4% or lower — more than two and a half percentage points lower than prevailing rates. Even if the typical mortgage payment is higher than a typical monthly rent payment, renters’ incomes tend to be lower than homeowners.
Persons: , Lisa Sturtevant, Danielle Hale, Realtor.com, , Hale Organizations: DC CNN, Bright MLS, Bank of America Institute, BLS, Locations: Washington
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates ticked up this week for the second week in a row, but remain more than a full percentage point lower than their high last year. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.66% in the week ending January 11, up from 6.62% the previous week, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Lower mortgage rates expected to bring new inventoryWhile mortgage rates trending lower is welcome news for homebuyers, those in the market are still dealing with the double whammy of low inventory and high home prices that continue to rise. But, she added, the pace of mortgage rates declining is likely to be slower going forward than the dramatic nine-week drop at the end of 2023.
Persons: Freddie Mac, who’ve, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, That’s, Jiayi Xu, Xu Organizations: DC CNN —, , Federal, Treasury Locations: Washington
Many thought the internet would eventually kill the 6% real estate commission. Even as the ranks of stockbrokers and travel agents have dropped in recent years as commissions petered out, the number of real estate agents has grown and their typical commissions are bigger than ever as home prices have risen. That is largely because of the power of the National Association of Realtors, an influential lobbying group that represents 1.5 million real estate agents. How real estate commissions workHome sellers are usually on the hook for their real estate agent’s commission as well as for paying the agent that represents the buyer. Real estate agents will tell you commissions are negotiable — and they are.
Persons: Sellers, , Jordan Barry, , Tiffany Hagler, won’t, Babiracki Barlow, “ we’ve, Vasi Organizations: DC CNN, Kansas City, Brookings Institution, stockbrokers, National Association of Realtors, University of Southern, National Association of Real, Exchanges, NAR, Association, Geard, Bloomberg, Getty, realtors, Agents, MLS, Department of Justice, DOJ, California Association of Realtors, New, Real, Board Locations: Washington, New York City, University of Southern California, Larchmont , New York, Boston, New York, New York —, York
And as the mountain of debt keeps piling up, and the government’s budget deficit remains massive, some bond traders are now joining politicians in decrying the government’s ever-growing financial obligation. Those bond traders are seemingly up in arms over the government’s gaping budget deficit — something that occurs when the government’s spending outstrips revenues — which currently stands at roughly $67 billion so far for the current fiscal year. For the full 2023 budget year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit stood at a staggering $1.5 trillion. How do we manage the budget deficit? Our interest rate team is looking at the 10-year (US Treasury) yield to be closer to 4% than 5% next year.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Bell, Joe Quinlan, It’s, it’s, what’s, You’d, Powell, ” Powell, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Treasury Department, Congressional, Office, Federal, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Treasury, Spelman College, US Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Atlanta
Harris said the US would pledge another $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund – the main finance vehicle to help developing nations adapt to the climate crisis and cut fossil fuel pollution. “Today we are demonstrating through action how the world can and must meet this crisis,” Harris said. Harris’ attendance at the summit in Dubai is in line with her recent steps to ramp up public messaging on climate change. We must treat the climate crisis as the existential threat it truly is. In what represented an early success, several countries pledged millions of dollars to help nations hit hardest by the climate crisis.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, ” Harris, Coal, , Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump, , CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez, Sam Fossum, Ella Nilsen Organizations: DC CNN —, US, Environmental Protection Agency, Past Coal Alliance, Energy Information Administration, UAE, Japan, Biden, Republican, Washington Post, University of Maryland Locations: Washington, Dubai, United States, Israel, Gaza, Germany, Paris
While Powell and other officials say they’re not even thinking about cutting rates just yet, some investors expect cuts to begin around the middle of next year. With Treasury yields sliding in recent weeks, so have mortgage rates, and rate cuts next year would help that along. Inflation, spending and mortgagesConsumer spending and inflation both eased in October, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. What Fed officials are sayingFed officials have broadly acknowledged that economic conditions are setting the stage for inflation to continue its descent. While some Fed officials have expressed optimism, others remain unconvinced that the Fed’s job is done.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, , Powell, they’re, Freddie Mac, Christopher Waller, John Williams, “ We’ve, Michelle Bowman, Organizations: DC CNN — Investors, Federal, Spelman College, Treasury, Fed, December’s Fed, Commerce Department, , Washington . New York Fed, New York Fed Locations: Washington, Atlanta, September’s, America, doldrums, Washington . New, Salt Lake City
Washington, DC CNN —US pending home sales fell to their lowest level in 20 years in October as mortgage rates surged to their highest levels of the year, according to a report released Thursday. Pending home sales dropped 1.5% last month from September, monthly data from the National Association of Realtors showed. The pending home sales index — a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings rather than closings — was down 8.5% from a year ago. Completed sales of existing homes and sales of new construction homes, which are also based on contract signings, also fell in October. In October, existing home sales fell to the lowest level in 13 years, remaining below 4 million for the first time since October 2010.
Persons: , , Lawrence Yun, Yun, Hannah Jones, October’s, Jones, — Jones, ” Jones, Organizations: DC CNN, National Association of Realtors, Northeast, NAR, Realtor.com, Locations: Washington, Midwest, South, West
Mortgage rates drop for fifth straight week
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
It’s the fifth straight week rates have moved lower. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. According to a forecast from Realtor.com, the average mortgage rate is projected to be 6.8% in the next year. “As mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated, current homeowners with low mortgage rates are expected to stay put, leading to a decline in for-sale inventory,” said Xu.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, , Khater, Jiayi Xu, Xu, ” Xu, Joel Kan, ” Kan Organizations: DC CNN —, Inflation, Federal, Realtor.com, Treasury, Mortgage, Association Locations: Washington
Washington, DC CNN —US economic growth was even stronger in the third quarter than previously estimated, underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience in the face of elevated inflation and high borrowing costs earlier this year. Wednesday’s latest reading reflects an even faster pace of growth than the blistering 4.9% rate the department initially estimated. Nonresidential fixed investment, or business spending, was revised up to a growth rate of 1.3% in the third quarter from a decline of 0.1%. Fourth-quarter spending likely won’t be as piping hot, however. Fed officials pay close attention to various facets of the US economy when deliberating monetary policy, including growth.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, , Christopher Waller, American Enterprise Institute . Waller, Michelle Bowman Organizations: DC CNN, Gross, Commerce, Consumer, Adobe Analytics, Institute for Supply Management, Employers, Atlanta Fed, Federal, , American Enterprise Institute ., Fed Locations: Washington, EY, Salt Lake City
Washington, DC CNN —A September hack of popular identity management firm Okta was far more extensive than previously known and saw the hackers steal data on all users in Okta’s customer support system, the company revealed Wednesday. San Francisco-based Okta said it doesn’t have “direct knowledge or evidence” that the information stolen in the latest breach is being actively exploited by hackers. The vast majority of the information stolen by the hackers involved names and email addresses of customers, according to Okta. Last January, a prolific group of young cybercriminals breached Okta via one of the firm’s vendors in a separate security incident that was far smaller in scope, potentially affecting up to 366 customers, according to Okta. Okta’s stock plunged Wednesday morning amid the news of the latest cybersecurity incident but has since rebounded a bit.
Persons: Okta, David Bradbury, , cybercriminals Organizations: DC CNN, CNN Locations: Washington, San Francisco, Okta
Washington, DC CNN —US home prices continued to rise in September, hitting a new record high and marking the eighth consecutive month of increases, according to data released Tuesday. Even as mortgage rates lingered above 7% in September, historically low inventory continued to push up the price of a home. Prices rose 0.7% in September from the month before, according to seasonally adjusted data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index. Compared to a year ago, the national composite index also rose, with prices up 3.9% from September 2022, the data shows. Higher prices and higher mortgage rates led to crushing affordability challenges for homebuyers in September, bringing existing home sales to 13-year lows.
Persons: , Craig Lazzara, Dow, Charlotte ,, Hannah Jones, Jones Organizations: DC CNN, Dow Jones, Las, Realtor.com, homebuyers Locations: Washington, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Charlotte , North Carolina, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami ; New York, Tampa , Florida, San Diego, New York, Las Vegas, Portland , Oregon, Northeast, Midwest
Washington, DC CNN —New home sales in the United States fell in October as typical mortgage rates reached their highest levels this year. This was below analysts’ expectations of an annualized sales pace of 723,000. The average mortgage rate for that loan has been lower recently, dropping down to 7.29% last week, according to Freddie Mac. New home builders often offer more financing options for homebuyers, she said, and are able to “buy down” mortgage rates to make their offerings more attractive than the resale market. With [mortgage] interest rates anticipated to drop in the coming year, more resale homes may go on the market – however there remains significant pent-up demand from buyers,” Mangold said.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Kelly Mangold, ” Mangold, Organizations: DC CNN, US Department of Housing, Urban Development, Census, Federal Reserve, Real Estate Consulting, homebuyers Locations: Washington, United States
Mortgage rates fall for fourth week but stay above 7%
  + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates fell again in the most recent week, as inflation showed signs of slowing. It’s the fourth consecutive week of tumbling rates after rising for seven straight weeks. The average rate rose above 7% in mid-August and since then reached as high as 7.79% at the end of October. “In a few short weeks, mortgage rates have largely erased the sharp climb traversed in October,” said Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist. Meanwhile, she added, existing home sales slid to their worst reading since 2010 as home prices rose and mortgage rates pushed the cost of buying even higher.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Danielle Hale, Hale, homebuyers, ” Hale Organizations: DC CNN — Locations: Washington
Sales slumped in October and prices continued to climb, as mortgage rates surged last month and inventory remained extraordinarily low. Home sales remained at 13-year lows as buyers competed for the few available homes on the market and continued to push up prices. Elevated prices, together with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage nearing 8% in October, have created the least affordable market in several decades. Home sales were down in lower priced categories – under $750,000 – due to lack of inventory and sales grew in higher price categories where there was more inventory. “The lack of inventory and higher interest rates really hitting the home sales market,” said Yun.
Persons: , , Lawrence Yun, Yun, Organizations: DC CNN —, National Association of Realtors, West, NAR, Locations: Washington, Northeast, Midwest, South
Washington, DC CNN —The annual pace of new home construction increased again last month amid a historic shortage of housing inventory and crushing mortgage rates. Housing starts, a measure of new home construction, jumped by 1.9% in October, compared to the previous month. Starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million last month, rising above expectations of 1.35 million, according to data released Wednesday by the Census Bureau. Building permits also ticked up in October, climbing 1.1% from August’s revised number to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million. “The new construction housing market is poised to ensure that inventory is available to meet pent-up demand of households who have been waiting for a reprieve in rates before purchasing.”
Persons: , Kelly Mangold, Mangold Organizations: DC CNN, Housing, Census, Real Estate Consulting Locations: Washington
Mortgage rates have cooled in recent weeks as markets absorbed the latest economic indicators, including an improving inflation picture. “For the third straight week, mortgage rates trended down, as new data indicates that inflationary pressures are receding,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. “The gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is historically around 180 basis points,” she said. “While the gap has narrowed somewhat, the 30-year mortgage rate remains 280 basis points higher than the bond yield.”By historical norms, she said, mortgage rates should be under 6.5%.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Price, Jiayi Xu, Jerome, Powell, ” Xu, Bob Broeksmit, Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, , Lisa Sturtevant, ” Sturtevant Organizations: DC CNN —, Mortgage, Association, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Consumer, , National Association of Realtors, Bright MLS Locations: Washington
Washington, DC CNN —Homebuilder confidence dropped for the fourth month in a row in November as mortgage rates neared 8%. But recent economic data suggests housing conditions may improve in coming months. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in November fell six points to 34, according to the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Thursday morning. Specificially, Dietz said, the 10-year Treasury rate moved back to the 4.5% range for the first time since late September, which will help bring mortgage rates down closer to or below 7.5%. In November, 60% of builders provided sales incentives of all forms, down slightly from 62% in October.
Persons: , Alicia Huey, ” Huey, NAHB, Robert Dietz, NAHB’s, Specificially, Dietz, ” Dietz, Freddie Mac Organizations: DC CNN, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo
The mid-Atlantic state registered a record unemployment rate of 1.6% in September — less than half the national unemployment rate of 3.8% that month — Labor Department data shows. That’s the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of any state on records going back to 1976, according to a CNN analysis. However, Maryland’s job market is still robust, with government and health care employers adding jobs at a brisk pace. Here’s a dive into the labor market of the state with the lowest unemployment rate in American history:Where the jobs areThe biggest industries in Maryland are government, health care, education and professional services. Fort Meade, a military base, is the largest employer in the state, according to Moody’s Analytics.
Persons: ” Christina DePasquale, Johns, Colin Seitz, , ” Seitz, There’s, , Mary Kane, what’s, Kane, ” Daniel Zhao, ” Zhao Organizations: DC CNN, — Labor Department, CNN, Baltimore, Fort Meade, University, of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University, Labor Department . State, Health, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, Moody’s, Maryland, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Maryland Hospital Association, Labor, Maryland Chamber of Commerce, , Maryland Department of Labor, DC Locations: Washington, Atlantic, California, Lexington, Maryland, Fort, Florida, Texas, Virginia
Washington, DC CNN —Americans cut their retail spending in October for the first time since March, with interest rates at a 22-year high. Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, fell 0.1% in October from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. October’s decline in retail spending is potentially an early sign of a slowing economy as US consumers get squeezed by higher borrowing costs and they continue to rack up credit card debt. Car sales fell 1.1% in October from September, while furniture sales declined 2% during the same period. Wednesday’s retail sales report bodes well for the Fed, since it shows spending isn’t reaccelerating or remaining stubbornly strong.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Kathy Bostjancic, Austan Goolsbee, market’s, ” Goolsbee Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, Federal, Nationwide, Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed, Detroit Economic Locations: Washington
“First-time buyers tiptoed back into the market this year with less competition and fewer multiple-offer scenarios,” said Lautz. The age of the typical repeat buyer also dropped slightly to 58 from an all-time high of 59 last year. In comparison, the typical downpayment for repeat buyers was 19%, which is the highest share since 2005, when the typical downpayment was 21%. First-time buyers increased their reliance on financial assets this year, which grew to 24% from 20% last year. Of recent homebuyers, 7% were Latino, 7% were Black, 6% were Asian or Pacific Islander and 6% identified as some other race.
Persons: , Jessica Lautz, today’s, homebuyers, downpayment, Homebuyers, Organizations: DC CNN, National Association of Realtors, Census Locations: Washington, United, United States
Fed officials don’t expect inflation to reach 2% until 2026, according to their latest economic projections released in September. If there’s one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be worsening inflation expectations. The keyword there is “timely.”Sticky inflation could possibly “un-anchor” inflation expectations or elicit a consistent deterioration in Americans’ perception on inflation. “The Fed really just wants people to not expect inflation will run at 4% forever.”So what’s kept inflation expectations in check this long? For individuals and married people filing separately, the new federal standard deduction will increase to $14,600, up from $13,850 this year.
Persons: we’ve, Raphael Bostic, , ” Luke Tilley, , Jerome Powell, presser, Powell, Michelle Bowman, Tilley, ” Drew Matus, what’s, Matus, “ They’re, Jeanne Sahadi, Lisa Cook, Phillip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Investment Advisors, CNN, , New York Bankers Association, New York Fed, MetLife Investment Management, IRS, Tyson Foods, Depot, US Labor Department, National Federation of Independent Business, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Target, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, Walmart, National Association of Home Builders, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, Wilmington, Palm Beach , Florida
Washington, DC CNN —Americans are becoming gloomier about the economy with interest rates at a 22-year high and economic growth widely expected to slow. That was the fourth consecutive month that sentiment soured, after improving over the summer. Meanwhile, both short-term and long-term inflation expectations worsened this month. Americans’ expectations for inflation rates in the year ahead rose to 4.4% in November, up from October’s 4.2% reading. In a worrisome sign for the Federal Reserve, long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.2% this month, the highest level since 2011.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Jerome Powell, it’s, ” Powell, Stocks, , Powell Organizations: DC CNN, University, Federal Reserve, Fed, International Monetary Fund Locations: Washington, Gaza, Ukraine
Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is leaving the door open for additional interest rate hikes to defeat inflation, he said Thursday in prepared remarks. However, investors are bullish about another pause in rate hikes next month, according to fed funds rate futures. As Powell began to deliver his speech, he was interrupted by climate protesters who made their way onto the stage. That could potentially be a headache for the Fed, since strong demand could be maintaining some upward pressure on prices. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin hinted that the Fed could forgo additional action because the economy perhaps hasn’t felt the full impact of the Fed’s previous 11 rate hikes just yet.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , ” Powell, Powell, Stocks, Dow, Kathleen O’Neill Paese, Thomas Barkin, hasn’t, ” Barkin, — CNN’s Krystal Hur Organizations: DC CNN — Federal, International Monetary Fund, Economic, of New, Nasdaq, Treasury, Interim Kansas, Richmond Fed Locations: Washington, Washington ,, of New York, Jeffersonville , Indiana, New Orleans
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