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Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a ‘Soft Landing’? The soft, the hard and the grayThere isn’t any standard definition of an economic soft landing. But what’s an acceptable inflation rate? On the other side, policymakers used to believe that an unemployment rate below 4 percent was basically unattainable without runaway inflation. Unless we have a really, really hard landing, the overall story of the postpandemic economy will be one of remarkable resilience.
Neither party managed to claim an outright majority in the first round, and a runoff is planned for May 28. If Mr. Erdogan is confident that he’ll succeed in the second round, it might be because of places like Adiyaman, where he won 66 percent of the vote. A huge poster of Mr. Erdogan nearby promised free natural gas for a year. Mr. Kilicdaroglu pledged free housing for earthquake victims on another poster, but that one was a three-and-a-half-mile drive away. : the party of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and secularism; the party that once supported a ban against the head scarf in public institutions.
Ever since World War II ended, Japan has been passing the buck. Sheltered by the postwar U.S. security alliance, Japan provided bases for American forces but kept its own military spending remarkably low for a country of its size and wealth, resisting American urging to share more of the burden. But Japan is the linchpin of today’s paramount geopolitical competition — China’s push for regional dominance of East Asia — and it is America’s most essential ally. for decades), and a Japanese public still traumatized by defeat in World War II. It also reassured Asian nations that Japan would not again embark on overseas aggression.
Almost a year has passed since the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the U.S. economy had contracted for two quarters in a row. Some people believe, wrongly, that two quarters of falling G.D.P. The interesting question now is why, at least according to some surveys, the public remains very negative on the economy — as negative as it has been in the past amid severe economic downturns — even though those recession calls were clearly a false alarm, and the economy is actually looking remarkably strong. Or maybe the question should be why people say that they’re very negative on the economy. And we have some new information on what lies behind these gaps.
But I examined the likely costs, did the same with the likely benefits, and then made a judgment that the latter outweighed the former. Performing that kind of analysis — one that doesn’t shy away from nuance and complexity — is an essential element of sound decision-making. Here, the mistake people too often make is to judge a prior decision solely based on the outcome that occurred. We concluded that intervention was unlikely to work. There is, however, a pressing need for leaders of today and tomorrow to make the best possible decisions in an uncertain world.
Budget Cuts in the G.O.P. If every agency is cut If defense, veterans’ health and border security are spared Defense Defense –18% 0% No change Veterans' medical Veterans' medical –18% 0% No change Health and Human Services Health and Human Services –18% –51% Education Education –18% –51% Housing and Urban Development Housing and Urban Development –18% –51% Homeland Security Homeland Security –18% 0% No change Justice Justice –18% –51% State State –18% –51% Transportation Transportation –18% –51% Agriculture Agriculture –18% –51% International aid International aid –18% –51% NASA NASA –18% –51% Veterans (other) Veterans (other) –18% –51% Energy Energy –18% –51% Interior Interior –18% –51% Treasury Treasury –18% –51% Labor Labor –18% –51% Social Security Administration Social Security Administration –18% –51% Commerce Commerce –18% –51% Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency –18% –51% Corps of Engineers Corps of Engineers –18% –51% Other Other –18% –51% Source: Analysis of Congressional Budget Office data by Bobby Kogan, Center for American Progress Note: Figure shows base discretionary budget authority totals for 2024-2033. The New York TimesThe charts above show how exempting big categories of spending would make the budget caps more draconian. The budget caps aren’t the only changes in the current House bill that would reduce federal spending. tax enforcement Budget cuts would reduce tax collections, reducing the savings in the rest of the bill –$120 billion Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget ; Congressional Budget Office Note: TANF refers to the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program.
These Are the Best Pillows for Stomach Sleepers
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +16 min
By Lisa LombardiIf you’re a stomach sleeper, you’ve likely shopped for squishy, soft pillows in the past. That’s why finding the ideal pillow for stomach sleepers can prove to be difficult. It cushioned my head without allowing it to collapse into the mattress, like some other soft pillows do. Best upgrade pillow for stomach sleepersCozy Earth Silk Pillow $224 at Cozy Earth $ 299 Save $ 75 Silk-filled with a breathable bamboo cover, this pillow is a luxe pick for stomach sleepers who tend to overheat while they sleep. This flexibility proves particularly helpful for stomach sleepers, since getting the right loft is important to avoiding neck discomfort.
Britain, which has the deepest deficits, used to own a globally dominant currency — but the pound sterling stopped playing any important international role generations ago. The Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar have never been widely used outside their issuing nations. So where does the idea that dollar dominance gives us a special ability to run deficits come from? Why, then, are people making such a big deal over the possible end of dollar dominance? The bottom line in most of this analysis is that the dollar is widely used because it’s widely used — that all of the various roles the dollar plays create a web of self-reinforcement, keeping the dollar pre-eminent.
Some of us would like to slow this down because we are seeing more costs every day, but I don’t think that means that there are no benefits. We may someday have a technology that revolutionizes science and technology, but I don’t think GPT-5 is the ticket for that. Combine that human overattribution with the reality that these systems don’t know what they’re talking about and are error-prone, and you have a problem. I don’t think we should go after an individual who posts a silly story on Facebook that wasn’t true. I don’t think, however, that the technology we have right now is very good for that — systems that can’t even reliably do math problems.
G.D.P. Report: What to Look For
  + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, probably rose at a rate of about 1.9 percent in the first quarter of the year, according to estimates compiled by FactSet. The Federal Reserve has raised rates by nearly five percentage points since early last year in an effort to tamp down inflation. That has led to a sharp slowdown in home building and business investment. Consumer spending, however, has proved resilient in the face of both rising prices and higher borrowing costs. Consumers have been buoyed by a strong job market and rising wages, which have helped offset high prices.
How Strong Is the Economy?
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
Conservatives sometimes respond to this data by trying to separate the economy from the rest of society. But I think it’s a mistake to imagine that the economy is somehow distinct from living standards. To over-generalize only somewhat, blue America believes in NIMBYism (“not in my backyard”), while red America is more comfortable with YIMBYism. That combination helps explain why our economy looks so good by some measures and so bad by others. Liberals have been hobbling government and the economy, Nicholas Bagley of the University of Michigan explained on Ezra Klein’s podcast.
The Debt Ceiling Debate Is About More Than Debt
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Jim Tankersley | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The Republican plan is estimated to reduce that ratio — known as debt-to-G.D.P. — in 2033 by about 9 percentage points if fully enacted. By contrast, Mr. Biden’s latest budget, which raises trillions of dollars in new taxes from corporations and high earners and includes new spending on child care and education, would reduce the ratio by about 6 percentage points. Those reductions are a far cry from Republicans’ promises, after winning control of the House in November, to balance the budget in 10 years. At the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, Mr. McCarthy accused the president and his party of already adding “$6 trillion to our nation’s debt burden,” ignoring the bipartisan support enjoyed by most of the spending Mr. Biden has signed into law.
Opinion | The Power of American Capitalism
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( David Brooks | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
The millennial and Gen Z generations are practically defined by a story of economic hardship. Many people believe that the coming generations will not enjoy the same living standards as their parents. “If anything, the reverse is true.”My point is not that American capitalism is perfect. For reasons deeply rooted in our culture, the American brand of capitalism has always been tilted toward dynamism, with freer markets and smaller welfare states. Between 1990 and 2019, American social spending rose from 14 percent of G.D.P.
Annual population growth 3% Growing population Projected Projected 2% India’s population is projected to grow until the 2060s. 1% 0 Declining population -1% 1960 2000 2040 2080 3% Projected 2% China’s population declined for the first time in 2022. Fertility rate 8 children per woman Projected Projected 6 India 4 India’s fertility rate ensures a roughly stable population. Age 100+ Male Female Male Female 95–99 90–91 85–89 80–81 75–79 70–71 Nearly 80% of India’s population is younger than 50. 20–21 15–19 10–11 5–9 0–4 Age 100+ Male Female 95–99 90–91 85–89 80–81 Nearly 80% of India’s population is younger than 50.
The Best Pillows for Side Sleepers, According to Experts
  + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +13 min
Best memory foam pillow for side sleepersSaatva Graphite Memory Foam Pillow $165 at Saatva This responsive and well-cushioned pillow is also cooling, thanks to its graphite-infused memory foam. (It’s technically made with shredded memory foam around a latex core.) More than other memory foam pillows we tested, the Saatva takes the shape of your head and neck—as in, you can see your form in the pillow. Another plus: It feels cool to the touch, which we found isn’t always the case with memory foam pillows we’ve tried. The company uses both graphite and gel in its memory foam to carry heat away from your body.
Chart showing the percentage cut the committee would make to each area of government spending to balance the budget over 10 years. 8 8 8 Deficit 6 6 6 4 4 4 Spending Spending Spending Revenue Revenue Revenue 2 2 2 2023 2033 2023 2033 2023 2033 Current projections Deficits are projected to grow to $2.7 trillion by 2033. 8 8 8 Deficit 6 6 6 4 4 4 Spending Spending Spending Revenue Revenue Revenue 2 2 2 2023 2033 2023 2033 2023 2033 Eliminate by increasing taxes Current projections Eliminate by cutting spending Deficits are projected to grow to $2.7 trillion by 2033. plan to balance budget 50% Projections 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Current trajectory 200% of G.D.P. plan to balance budget 50% Projections 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; Congressional Budget Office; Republican Study Committee Note: Both plans were released in 2022 and are based on outdated baseline projections; their debt reduction may differ modestly.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, the West formed what looked like an overwhelming global coalition: 141 countries supported a United Nations measure demanding that Russia unconditionally withdraw. South Korea Indonesia Israel Thailand Japan Saudi Arabia Philippines Afghanistan CambodiaBy contrast, Russia seemed isolated. Eritrea “Russian actions are being distorted” North Korea Russia Belarus Syria Eritrea “Russian actions are being distorted” North Korea Russia Belarus SyriaBut the West never won over as much of the world as it initially seemed. But like many other African countries, South Africa appears careful to balance its growing ties with Russia against maintaining a relationship with the West. Others that provided Ukraine with military support have declined to impose economic sanctions on Russia.
Feb 17 (Reuters) - India is setting up a fund worth 330 billion rupees ($4 billion) to provide liquidity to its corporate debt market during bouts of stress, to help stem panic selling and ease redemption pressures, an SBI Mutual Fund executive told Reuters. During times of stress, the backstop fund could step into the market to buy relatively illiquid investment grade bonds. "This backstop facility fund comes out of Indian market peculiarity that the bonds are investment grade and still illiquid," said Anubhav Shrivastava, partner, Infinity Alternatives, an alternate investment fund (AIF). "The market for secondary corporate bonds is thin which is why we need the buyer and seller of last resort, the backstop fund will do this." The fund is small relative to 39 trillion rupees ($471 billion) Indian corporate bond market, but its size could be increased later, the source said.
Netflix announced 34 new Korean titles to hit the streaming platform in 2023, including a diverse array of series and movies. The upcoming titles, which Netflix calls their “biggest-ever lineup of Korean films and series,” includes 21 scripted shows, five reality shows, six movies and two documentaries. Korean content on the platform has continued to grow, with over 60 percent of all Netflix users watching Korean titles last year, according to a release from the company on Monday. The global popularity of Korean media and culture, known as the “Korean Wave,” is still proving successful in the U.S., with shows like “Squid Game” being Netflix’s most successful series launch of all time. For its part, Netflix has been steadily investing in Korean content — reportedly over $500 million in 2021 and even more in 2022.
Opinion | Vaccines, Inflation, Abortion: 2022 in Charts
  + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Steven Rattner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +16 min
By the end of 2022, 23 percent of American women resided in states with effective bans on abortion. June 2022 March 2022 Dec. 2021 Sept. 2022 Dec. 2022 Fed Funds Rate 6% 5 4 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Longer run Unemployment 5% 4 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Longer run G.D.P. Growth 4% 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Longer run Core Inflation 5% 4 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Sept. 2022 June 2022 March 2022 Dec. 2021 Dec. 2022 Fed Funds Rate G.D.P. Growth 4% 6% 5 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 2022 2023 2025 2022 2023 2025 2024 2024 Longer run Longer run Core Inflation Unemployment 5% 5% 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2022 2023 2025 2022 2023 2025 2024 2024 Longer run Source: Federal Open Market CommitteeThe sustained period of high inflation left the Fed playing catch-up, as it had initially believed that the surge would prove transitory. 150 100 Xi Jinping addresses in 2017 & 2022 50 1982-2012 Economy Military Market Technology Reform Security Source: Capital EconomicsThen there was China: Our biggest source of imported goods became ever more clearly our biggest strategic adversary.
worse-case, highest-carbon-emission scenario.” (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the U.N. body that assesses climate change.) How do we weigh the risks of underreacting to climate change against the risks of overreacting to it? While he’s not an expert on climate change, he has spent decades thinking deeply about every manner of risk. That’s particularly true if climate change is akin to cancer — manageable or curable in its earlier stages, disastrous in its later ones. Maybe, I realized, in assessing my newfound concerns about climate change, my long-held beliefs might provide a solution — look to the market.
Beyond Catastrophe A New Climate Reality Is Coming Into View By David Wallace-WellsYou can never really see the future, only imagine it, then try to make sense of the new world when it arrives. (A United Nations report released this week ahead of the COP27 climate conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, confirmed that range.) A little lower is possible, with much more concerted action; a little higher, too, with slower action and bad climate luck. There were climate-change skeptics in some very conspicuous positions of global power. New emissions peaks are expected both this year and next, which means that more damage is being done to the future climate of the planet right now than at any previous point in history.
NOW PLAYINGFed Hikes Interest Rates for a Third Time in a Row0:49Biden Praises Deal Between Railroad Unions and Companies1:05Biden Celebrates Inflation Reduction Act as Price Pressures Remain High1:44Biden Attends Groundbreaking for Intel Chip Factory in Ohio0:59Fed Chair Signals Interest Rates Will Stay Elevated to Combat Inflation1:16Biden Is Hopeful That the Economy Is Stabilizing After Jobs Report1:40Fed Chair Warns of Economic Pain Ahead in Fight to Reduce Inflation1:00Biden Signs Landmark Inflation Reduction Act Into Law0:48Biden Points to ‘Historically Strong’ Job Market as G.D.P. Declines1:08U.S. Economy Progressing to ‘Steady, Sustainable’ Growth, Says Yellen1:03Senate Bill Will Combat Inflation Pressures, Biden Says1:00
Italia zboară din nou, visul continuă, Italia e în finala Campionatului European. Hai s-o scriem din nou, pentru că e frumos: Italia e în finală la EURO 2020. ”Dio è italiano”, adică ”Dumnezeu e italian” a fost titlul dat pe prima pagină în ediția tipărită a ziarulului. Finala e a noastră, am câștigat la penalty-uri, cu o altă ispravă, o cursă de mari suferințe, de inimă. De la eșecul calificării pentru Cupa Mondială la o finală europeană: a fost o călătorie magică, nebună.
Persons: Roberto Mancini, Mancini, Hai, Dio, driblinguri Organizations: Wembley, EURO, Cupa, Italia, Campionatului European, Juventus, Finala, Cupa Mondială Locations: Italia, Spaniei, Anglia, Danemarca, Spania, Morata, Italiei
ANUNȚcu privire la inițierea unui nou Program de formare profesională inițială a mediatorilorCentrul pentru Dezvoltare Personală şi Profesională ,,AKMES”, acreditat de Consiliul de Mediere de pe lângă Ministerul Justiţiei al Republicii Moldova în calitate de furnizor de formare iniţială şi continuă a mediatorilor, anunţă înscrierea la Programul de formare profesională iniţială a mediatorilor, care este preconizat pentru luna februarie 2021, în regim on-line. Programul va demara de îndată ce va fi completată grupa de participanți. Oportunităţile pe care le oferă Programul de formare profesională iniţială a mediatorilor sunt reflectate în art.3 al Legii cu privire la mediere (nr.137 din 03.07.2015), care stipulează că mediatorul desfăşoară o activitate de liber-profesionist, care, fiind compatibilă cu orice altă profesie, poate fi desfăşurată fie în cadrul unui birou de mediere (individual/asociat), fie în cadrul unei organizaţii de mediere. Semnarea Contractului individual de studii va fi precedată de prezentarea obligatorie a următoarelor acte: 1. Cerere de înscriere la Programul de formare profesională inițială a mediatorilor.
Locations: Republicii Moldova, 03.07.2015
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