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That includes a possibility "that inflation stays high and the economy strengthens," Barkin said. Barkin said there was nothing in the recent market movements which caused him to think financial conditions were tightening too quickly or in ways that were concerning. "It doesn't strike me that having a 10-year rate over 4 (percent) is somehow wildly inappropriate," given the Fed's current policy rate, Barkin said. Rates seem to be increasing "as best I can tell with the strength of the economic data ... If consumer spending and retail sales continue to be that strong ... it's probably appropriate."

Persons: Thomas Barkin, Barkin, it's, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, U.S, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: DANVILLE, Virginia, .

He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.

Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington

A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. The Fed watches an array of asset prices in its monitoring of the economy, including stocks, home prices, and corporate bonds. Reuters GraphicsAs of the Fed's July meeting, most Fed officials said they thought rates would need to increase more, with key measures of inflation still more than double the Fed's 2% target. Normally, Fed officials would be expected to see that sort of economic strength as a reason inflation might stay high and require further rate increases. "It may take sustained higher 10-year yields to slow the economy and the housing sector in particular to re-attain 2% target inflation," wrote economists from Citi.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Krishna Guha, Guha, Howard Schneider, Deepa Babington Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Stock, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

"Most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy." The group also "discussed several risk-management considerations that could bear on future policy decisions," the minutes said. U.S. Treasury yields hit session highs after the release of the minutes while U.S. stocks extended losses. Fed staff said they expected a "step-down" in underlying prices over the second half of this year. Investors in contracts tied to the federal funds rate are betting heavily that the Fed won't raise its policy rate again during the current tightening cycle.

Persons: Howard Schneider, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Federal, Market, Treasury, Fed, Derby, Thomson

An additional quarter-percentage-point rate increase, whether at the Fed's Sept. 19-20 meeting or later in the year, would be marginal in its macroeconomic impact, a small addition to the 5.25 percentage points the Fed has added to its policy rate over the 16 months ending in July. 'MIXED MESSAGING'The minutes include references to how officials assess the economy, the likely path of inflation, appropriate monetary policy, and the chief risks to policymakers' outlook. The core PCE index fell in June to 4.1% from 4.6% in May, a fact only released after the Fed meeting, though economists expected the decline. Since the July meeting, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has joined Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic in saying no more rate increases were needed. If market interest rates "break higher ... the Fed is going to have a problem.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Tim Duy, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Citi, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, New York Fed, Market Committee, Macro, Thomson Locations: U.S

"We now forecast a mild recession in the U.S. economy this year ... In May and June, the Fed staff projections "continued to assume" the U.S. economy would be in recession by the end of the year. Fed policymakers' projections, which are issued on a quarterly basis, never showed GDP contracting on an annual basis. 'CHUGGING ALONG'What made the difference between an in-the-moment recession that many thought was underway last year to growth that has surprised to the upside? An Atlanta Fed GDP "nowcast" puts output growth for the current July-September period at 5.0%, showing continued strong momentum.

Persons: Biden, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Sharif, We've, Sal Guatieri, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Fed, Reuters, Valley Bank, Atlanta Fed, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, California

Since CPI inflation tends to be faster than the PCE measures that the Fed uses to set its inflation target, that means one important area of policymaker focus may have dipped below target already. But the pace of increase pales against the double-digit gains in 2021, and the inflation rate for rental housing has also slowed. A recent study by San Francisco Fed economists, using real-time housing and rent data from companies like Zillow, projected "a sharp turnaround in shelter inflation" through late next year. Two versions of the San Francisco estimates show shelter inflation hitting 0% next year, well below the 3%-to-4% range that Meyer said could help the Fed traverse its last inflation mile more quickly. Other aspects of the economy may also be snapping into place, a possible late-arriving validation of the Fed's initial expectation that rising inflation in 2021 would prove "transitory."

Persons: Brent Meyer, Meyer, Quincy Krosby, they've, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta Fed's, Fed, CPI, San Francisco Fed, LPL, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, San Francisco

The Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.2% annual rate in July, which was a slight increase over June's 3% reading. Typically, that would be associated with a jump in unemployment as businesses and consumers scale back. Yet the unemployment rate has remained below 4% -- low for the U.S. -- since February 2022, and stood at 3.5% as of last month. Others feel the economy remains slow to adjust to higher interest rates, and that the unemployment rate will ultimately rise before the Fed finishes its inflation fight. The current Fed "has been uniquely successful thus far in lowering inflation while leaving the unemployment rate at its lowest levels in roughly half a century," they wrote, with the potential that policy tightening so far "may bring about further declines in inflation without a dramatic rise in the unemployment rate.

Persons: Bryan Woolston, Pierre, Daniel Sarte, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Mary Daly, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Christina Fincher, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Kentucky, Center, REUTERS, Bryan Woolston WASHINGTON, . Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Graphics, North, Capital Economics, Traders, San Francisco Fed, Yahoo Finance, U.S, Thomson Locations: Frankfort , Kentucky, U.S, North America

The Fed last week raised its policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, the 11th increase in the last 12 meetings. Core inflation is still pretty elevated," Powell said in a press conference after the end of the Fed's two-day policy meeting. We think we're going to need to hold policy at restrictive levels for some time. The Fed's policy rate influences the economy by changing what lenders charge consumers for credit card, auto, and home loans or what businesses pay on bonds or for credit lines. "Given that inflation is still sticky, they're going to end up with rates either too high or as high as they are for too long.

Persons: Antulio Bomfim, Bomfim, what's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lindsay Owens, Thomas Simons, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Trust Asset Management, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, STAR, North Star, Open, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: U.S

Powell acknowledged as a positive development that inflation has fallen from the highs of last year without serious damage to the economy. "We'll be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates, and that won't be this year," Powell said. 'MODERATE' GROWTHU.S. Treasury yields slid in choppy trading after the release of the Fed policy statement, while U.S. stocks ended largely unchanged. Futures markets showed little change in bets on the path of Fed rate increases over the remainder of the year, with small odds given to a rise in September. Though Powell said Fed staff had relaxed a prediction of a recession in coming months, outside analysts still think that's what it may take to finish the inflation fight.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz Powell, what's, Kathy Bostjancic, nodded, Taylor Swift, he's, Veronica Clark, we're, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Treasury, Nationwide, Citi, Derby, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Washington , U.S

[1/2] European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates again next week following similar positive inflation news. Meanwhile on Friday, the Bank of Japan opened the debate on plans to bring its ultra-loose policies to an end. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate now stands in the 5.25%-5.50% range, while the ECB's main rate is 3.75%. While bond markets took a cue from the faster growth, and pushed yields on Treasuries higher, the days of coordinated global tightening may be numbered.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lagarde, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi, Leika, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, U.S . Federal Reserve, The Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters, U.S, Graphics, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, TOKYO, Europe, United States, Graphics New, Tokyo

"We'll be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates and that won't be this year," Powell said. Yields on both the two- and 10-year Treasury notes moved down modestly from levels right before the release of the Fed's policy statement, while U.S. stocks ended mixed. Futures markets showed bets on the path of Fed rate increases over the remainder of the year were little changed, seeing small odds of a rise in September. "The forward guidance remains unchanged as the committee leaves the door open to further rate hikes if inflation does not continue to trend lower," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. He also noted that Fed staff economists are no longer predicting a recession as they have at recent meetings.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell, what's, Kathy Bostjancic, he's, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Nationwide, Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S

The increase, anticipated by investors with nearly a 100% probability, would raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range. That would bring it to roughly the highest level since the approach to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession. Far from it, the economy is proving more resilient to rising interest rates than expected, with ongoing growth and an unemployment rate that is currently pinned at a low 3.6%. New data on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, will be released on Friday. The Fed will have a larger-than-usual amount of data to assess before its next meeting on Sept. 19-20, some eight weeks away.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Steve Englander, Powell, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Standard Chartered, Data, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, North America

"Financial markets have consistently front-run the Fed ... That has already eased credit conditions and could stoke an acceleration in growth." Reuters GraphicsBALANCING RISKSIn the six weeks since their June 13-14 meeting, Fed policymakers have digested data offering a mirror image of what they faced a year ago. Signs of a slowdown are there, to be sure, and some policymakers expect more weakness is coming - an argument for caution in considering further rate increases. Still, unless there's a sharp drop in activity soon, it could mean Fed officials have underestimated the economy's strength and may become doubtful about the prospect of a continued decline in inflation. That will likely keep the door open to more rate increases - for now.

Persons: Diane Swonk, Jerome Powell, That's, Tim Duy, Duy, Powell, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, KPMG, stoke, Reuters, Fed, Atlanta Fed, SGH Macro, Thomson Locations: U.S

While recent inflation data was encouraging, he said, "one data point does not make a trend." Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'STRANGE BUSINESS CYCLE'Until the Fed declares its inflation war at an end, however, economists and market analysts say risks to a benign outcome will remain. "At 3.5%, July won't be the last time the Fed hikes," Furman said in an interview. Ed Al-Hussainy, senior rates analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, meanwhile, is skeptical that the impact of rapid rate hikes has already been absorbed. "To say we have the same economy with real rates at negative 2% as we do at positive 2%, I don't buy it."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Nick Bunker, Jason Furman, Obama, Furman, Ed Al, Columbia Threadneedle, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, shouldn't, Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Harvard University, White, Columbia, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Thomson Locations: U.S

That could help lower overall inflation when the next CPI report is released on Aug. 10, with the details in Wednesday's report suggesting "downside risks" to any forecast of July's inflation rate. Indeed, at least one Fed official on Wednesday stuck to policymakers' prevailing hawkish mantra that inflation is still too high. While not specifically addressing the CPI report, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told a Maryland business group that he still felt inflation had "been stubbornly persistent." 'FINAL INNINGS'But the latest CPI data could undercut arguments for yet another rate increase beyond the July meeting. Fed officials, blindsided by the persistence of inflation they initially thought would dissipate on its own, have been reluctant to bank on good news continuing.

Persons: Omair Sharif, Rick Rieder, Lael Brainard, Brainard, Thomas Barkin, Goldman Sachs, they've, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Labor Department, Reuters Graphics Reuters, BlackRock, Fed, White, Economic Council, Economic, of New, Richmond Fed, U.S, Cleveland Fed's Center, Inflation Research, Atlanta Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: U.S, of New York, Maryland

But it could begin to undercut arguments for more hikes beyond that, and may shift the Fed's relentlessly hawkish tone. That ratio has dropped as the Fed's rate hikes have slowed labor market demand, and in May hit its lowest level since November 2021 at around 1.6-to-1. If June's auto sales data is any indication, though, a marked slowdown does not appear imminent. Last month's annualized sales rate came in at nearly 15.7 million vehicles, well above industry-watcher estimates. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsBANK DATA: Released every Thursday and FridayTo some degree the Fed wants credit to become more expensive and less available.

Persons: Jerome Powell, delinquencies, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Labor, Survey, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S

"The economy is still adding more jobs than new entrants to the labor market," wrote Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joseph Davis and Senior International Economist Andrew Patterson. Wage growth "remains well above levels the Fed would be comfortable with" in the fight to return inflation to the 2% target. With job growth in prior months revised down by more than 100,000 jobs, the June jobs report is "a fairly soft print" with three-month average job gains now at 244,000 compared to more than 400,000 a year ago, said Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights. But progress towards a more balanced labor market is coming "slowly, slowly...These are still healthy figures" even as the pace softens. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns, Nick Zieminski, Andrea Ricci and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Joseph Davis, Andrew Patterson, Omair Sharif, Austan Goolsbee, Let's, Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Nick Zieminski, Andrea Ricci, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Vanguard Global, Senior, Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: U.S

WASHINGTON, July 6 (Reuters) - New data from the New York Federal Reserve shows underlying inflation may have slowed faster than the headline measures that have kept U.S. central bank officials poised for further interest rate increases. The New York Fed core trend also factors out the food and energy items that central bankers try to look beyond in assessing the direction of inflation. That's because recent data on rents, which have been moderating, gets incorporated faster into the New York Fed's estimates. From a monetary policy perspective, the new estimate could add fodder to arguments for being more cautious about further rate increases. Some policymakers have been concerned that the main measure of core inflation has shown little improvement; the New York Fed's alternate measure suggests that may be the result of temporary factors rather than a more persistent trend.

Persons: Howard Schneider, Chizu Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Reuters, New, Fed, New York Fed, York, Thomson Locations: York

While "some participants" wanted to move ahead with a rate hike in June because progress in cooling inflation had been slow, "almost all participants judged it appropriate or acceptable to maintain" the federal funds rate at the existing 5% to 5.25%, the minutes said. The minutes added detail to the policy statement and economic projections issued after the June 13-14 session, when the Fed ended its 10-meeting streak of rate hikes with a decision to hold the benchmark federal funds rate steady. Markets were little changed after the minutes, with traders in futures tied to the Fed policy rate continuing to price in a rate hike in July and about a one-in-three chance of another increase before the end of the year. "Stretching out into a more moderate pace is appropriate to allow you to make that judgment" over time, Powell said. Investors in contracts tied to the overnight federal funds rate feel the Fed is highly likely to raise the benchmark rate by a quarter point, to a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, at its July 25-26 meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S

WASHINGTON, June 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday defended the likely need for further interest rate increases despite the possible impact on jobs. "It is working families who suffer most directly and quickly from inflation," Powell responded, adding that Fed officials at this point feel "it will be appropriate to raise rates again this year, and perhaps twice, assuming the economy performs as expected." But Powell also elaborated on the Fed's approach in coming months as policymakers debate how much further rates need to rise. "We moved very, very quickly when we had to move quickly," with rates moving higher by 75 basis point per meeting at one point, Powell said. But now "we're at least close to where we think our destination is...and it only makes common sense to move...at a careful pace," Powell said, with rates held steady at the June meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Sherrod Brown, ” Brown, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal, U.S . Congress, Ohio Democratic, Banking Committee, Thomson Locations: Ohio

"My baseline is that we should stay at this level for the rest of the year," and not cut rates until the latter half of 2024, Bostic said in an interview on Yahoo Finance. "Letting restrictive policy work for a while is prudent because the policy has been truly restrictive for less than a year, and it takes time for monetary policy changes to meaningfully influence economic activity. Bostic is the first official to say explicitly that may be too soon. Therefore, the real economic effects of tighter monetary policy are only just beginning to take hold," Bostic said. The risk of waiting is that inflation may resurge, but "that is not my baseline."

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta

As Powell spoke, comments from other Fed officials showed the contours of the debate emerging at the central bank over whether further rate increases will, in fact, be needed. "If we simply press on with additional rate hikes, we could needlessly drain too much momentum from the economy," Bostic said. On monetary policy Powell kept the focus on the central bank's fight to lower inflation and said the process "has a long way to go." Despite the consensus on lowering inflation, the Fed is at a point where opinions about the need for and timing of additional interest rate increases may start to diverge. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jonathan Ernst WASHINGTON, Powell, ” Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Democrat Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Howard Schneider, Jason Lange, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S . Federal, Financial, REUTERS, Capitol, Financial Services, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed, Bank, Democrat, Republican, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Silicon

[1/2] The U.S. Capitol dome is seen from the Russell Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., April 19, 2023. Despite the consensus on lowering inflation, the Fed is also reaching a point where opinions about the need for and timing of additional interest rate increases may start to diverge. In large part that job has fallen to the Fed, but it is a central bank of Biden's making. If the current crop of nominees is approved five of seven board members would be Biden appointees. The Fed under Powell has raised interest rates faster than at any time since former Fed Chair Paul Volcker's inflation fights of the 1970s and 1980s.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger WASHINGTON, Jerome Powell, haven't, Democrat Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Powell, Biden, Preston Mui, Mui, Paul, Howard Schneider, Jason Lange, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S, Russell Senate, REUTERS, . Federal, Democrat, Republican, Federal, of Governors, World Bank, Fed, Financial, America, Reuters, Biden, Trump, Black Americans, Thomson Locations: Russell, Washington , U.S, U.S, Biden's

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