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☆ A 31-year market vet shares 2 signals that show a recession is still on the way — and warns the S&P 500 still has 48% downside as valuations remain near the richest levels in history
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

One is that the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index continues to show signs of slowing economic growth. "Real GDI has never fallen three quarters in a row without the economy being in a recession," Wolfenbarger said. This partially informs his call for the S&P 500 to fall to around 2,250, which would represent 48% downside from current levels. When it comes to Wolfenbarger's 48% sell-off call, it's well outside the mainstream of where strategists see stocks going. With valuations high, a meaningful recession could make that three times, as Wolfenbarger is warning.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Costa, Louis, Warren Buffett Organizations: JPMorgan, Bull, Institute for Supply Management's, Crescat, Federal Reserve Bank of St, downturns . Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: downturns .

☆ Loan approval: Why has it gotten so much harder?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Magnusson said that while she used USAA for a personal loan in the past, this time, the process felt very different. Lately, it may take more than just a good credit score for many people to get approved for a loan. Deutsche Bank recently told investors that bank lending conditions look “consistent with recession levels,” even though the US is not currently in a recession. Magnusson said she was “in tears” after spending hours on the phone with USAA to secure the loan over multiple days. McBride said that although loan application rejections are up and standards are tougher, getting a loan is still possible for those with good credit.

Persons: Cheryl Magnusson, Magnusson, “, USAA, ”, Greg McBride, —, ” McBride, Nathan Howard, McBride, William Brown, Brown, we’ve, ” Brown, “ I’ve, I’ve, Darlene Johnson, ” Johnson, Scott Olson Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Consumer, Deutsche Bank, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Navy, Suncoast Credit Union, Suncoast, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Locations: Arizona, Washington , DC, Silicon, Florida, Hawthorn Woods , Illinois

A widely followed gauge of future economic activity declined 0.4% in August, continuing a nearly 18-month drop, the Conference Board said on Thursday. The business organization’s Leading Economic Index is now down 3.8% over the past six months and is exhibiting all the signs that a recession is imminent. “The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. Economists have generally been surprised by the strength of the U.S. economy this year, especially the resilience of the labor market in the face of rising interest rates. However, prices are holding firm with the median price of an existing home reaching $407,100 – up 3.9% from a year ago.

Persons: ”, Justyna, Monica, Jerome Powell, “ I’ve, “ It’s Organizations: Conference, US, Board, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors Locations: U.S

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly lower in cautious trading Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates. “Market sentiment remained in its usual wait-and-see ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG. Political Cartoons View All 1167 ImagesStocks have been see-sawing since early August on uncertainty about whether the Fed will finally end its hikes to interest rates. Attention will mainly focus on forecasts Fed officials will publish about where they expect interest rates, the economy and the job market to head in upcoming years. But just as much attention will be on what Fed officials say about next year, when investors expect the Fed to begin cutting interest rates.

Persons: Australia's, Seng, ”, Yeap Jun Rong, it’s, Doug Ramsey, It’s, Ramsey, Clorox, Ford, That’s, Brent Organizations: TOKYO, Federal, Nikkei, IG, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Traders, CME Group, Fed, Ford, General Motors, United Auto Workers, Exxon Mobil, Marathon Petroleum, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S Locations: Hong, Shanghai, Japan's

☆ Why the Fed's interest rate move may hinge on inflation expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Andrea Miller | In Dreajmiller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. seemed to be winning its battle against inflation, but the latest consumer price index data showed inflation rose more than expected. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment August survey indicated consumers' one-year inflation expectations were at 3.3%, marking three consecutive months of stability. Inflation expectations, or the rate at which consumers expect prices to rise or fall in the future, can influence higher prices in the economy. Inflation expectations play a crucial role in the decisions made by the Federal Reserve. But consumer expectations of inflation are still above the Fed's 2% inflation rate target.

Persons: Joanne Hsu, It's, Hsu, Claudia Sahm, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Barry Glassman Organizations: University of Michigan, The University of, Consumers, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Sahm Consulting, Federal, Kansas City, Wealth Services Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The results were part of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August. Fears of credit access have been rising steadily since early 2022, around the same time that the Fed began raising interest rates. While the Fed worries over higher prices, the inflation outlook was mixed. Expectations for inflation one year and five years out rose just 0.1 percentage point on the month, taking them respectively to 3.6% and 3%. That comes with an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, or 0.1 percentage point above its year-ago level.

Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, York Fed's Survey, Fed Locations: New, York

☆ How an empathy-first approach can help businesses increase profitability
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Sponsor Post | Created Insider Studios With Paypal | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

78% of global consumers said they will be more loyal to businesses that help them through difficult times. of global consumers said they will be more loyal to businesses that help them through difficult times. These activities not only help make businesses more competitive, they also show workers that employers care about their professional growth. Here are three strategies businesses are using to help consumers navigate economic instability. 5 Le Parisien, Carrefour launches an online 'anti-inflation button' to help consumers buy cheaper, Nov 2022.

Persons: Joanne Hsu, upskilling, there's, that's, Agrobank, PwC, Kantar Organizations: PayPal, TrendWatching, Consumers, University of Michigan, Carrefour, Entrepreneurship, Insider Studios Locations: verticals, Malaysia

☆ NY Fed finds record wage expectations in July consumer survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

People walk by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the financial district of New York City, U.S., June 14, 2023. Meanwhile, respondents to the bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations said that the lowest wage they’d accept to take a job also jumped, hitting a record $78,645, from $72,873 a year ago. The survey said that survey respondents said that in July the average wage offered for a full-time job was $69,475 versus $60,764 in July 2022. The jump in compensation, actual and expected, came even as poll respondents saw some softening around the edges of the job market. The New York Fed reports on labor market expectations quarterly as part of a data series best known for tracking the expected path of inflation and household financial situations.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, they’re, there’s, they’d, “, Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, bank’s Survey, Consumer Expectations, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ ECB core obsession raises risk of policy mistake
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Headline inflation in the euro zone has halved in the past nine months and was 5.3% in July. Granted, both headline and core inflation are currently above the ECB’s 2% target. In fact, core tends to follow headline inflation because its narrower composition makes it stickier. That’s because, as the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said recently, headline inflation is “really what the public experiences”. ECB President Christine Lagarde has pledged to be “data-dependent”.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Martin Heidegger, that’s, Joachim Nagel, Germany’s Bundesbank, Klaas Knot, Lucrezia Reichlin, Michele Lenza, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Klaas, Neil Unmack, Oliver Taslic, Streisand Neto Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Financial Times, U.S . Federal, Eurostat, Central, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, German, Ukraine

CNN —Earnings season continues this week with Target, Walmart, TJ Maxx parent company TJX and other high-profile retailers set to release their quarterly results. That shift showed up in earnings results for retailers including Home Depot and Target earlier this year. US retail spending, which is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, inched up in June but fell below economists’ expectations. Americans feel hopeful inflation is coolingAmericans are feeling more optimistic that inflation is trending down now and into the future. Consumer spending expectations ticked up from the month before but remain below levels seen during the past year, according to the report.

Persons: TJ Maxx, hasn’t, Christina Hennington, Doug McMillon, they’re, Matt Egan Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Target, Walmart, TJ, Shoppers, Home Depot, Refinitiv, “, University of Michigan’s, Consumer, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve, AAA, Labor Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Russia, Saudi Arabia

☆ Stock Market News Today: Dow Closes Higher, Nasdaq Slips; FTX Founder Sent to Jail
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

The S&P 500 ended slightly lower Friday, logging its second straight week of losses. Stocks had kicked off the day with declines after the producer-price index showed supplier prices ticking up from June's flat reading. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell, while the Dow Industrials edged up. The FTSE 100 slid and the pound rallied after data showed the U.K. economy grew. Chinese stocks fell.

Persons: Stocks, TINA, Wynn Organizations: Investors, Nasdaq, Dow, UBS, Credit Suisse, Casino, Wynn Resorts, Caesars, Bank of England Locations: Swiss, Shanghai

☆ Euro zone consumers expect lower inflation, sluggish housing prices - ECB poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File PhotoFRANKFURT, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Euro zone consumers expect inflation to keep slowing in the next months and years but remain pessimistic about their purchasing power and house prices, a European Central Bank survey showed on Tuesday. Consumers also cut their expectations for inflation three years ahead to 2.3% from 2.5% in May - inching closer to the ECB's 2% target. The survey also showed that consumers continued to expect their income to grow much more slowly - at 1.2% - than inflation and spending over the next 12 months, implying an expected lowering of living standards and savings. An article accompanying the survey showed that households' perceptions about housing have deteriorated markedly since mid-2021 due to expectations of higher mortgage rates and inflation as well as lower economic growth.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Francesco Canepa, Andrew Heavens Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

☆ Key Fed inflation rate falls to lowest annual level in nearly 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Headline PCE inflation including food and energy costs also increased 0.2% on the month and rose 3% on an annual basis. So-called core PCE rose 4.1% from a year ago, compared with the estimate for 4.2%. The annual rate was the lowest since September 2021 and marked a decrease from the 4.6% pace in May. Readings such as the consumer price index are showing a slower rise in inflation, while consumer expectations also are also coming back in line with longer-term trends. Along with the inflation data, the Commerce Department said personal income rose 0.3% while spending increased 0.5%.

Persons: Dow Jones, George Mateyo, Jerome Powell Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Markets, Treasury, Key Private Bank, Fed

☆ Tesla’s secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +21 min

He expected to get something close to the electric sport sedan’s advertised driving range: 353 miles on a fully charged battery. Driving range is among the most important factors in consumer decisions on which electric car to buy, or whether to buy one at all. Electric cars can lose driving range for a lot of the same reasons as gasoline cars — but to a greater degree. The EPA said all the changes to Tesla’s range estimates were made before the company used the figures on window stickers. Independent automotive testers commonly examine the EPA-approved fuel-efficiency or driving range claims against their own experience in structured tests or real-world driving.

Persons: Alexandre Ponsin, ”, Tesla, Elon Musk, “ Elon, Scott Case, Case, Gregory Pannone, Pannone, “ They've, carmaker, Ford, I’m, ” Pannone, ” Jonathan Elfalan, Edmunds, Elfalan, ” Elfalan, Santa Clara –, Ponsin, ” Ponsin, “, Steve Stecklow, Norihiko, Heekyong Yang, Peter Henderson, Eve Watling, Lucy Ha, Ilan Rubens, Brian Thevenot Organizations: Reuters, Tesla, South, Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, Ford, Chevrolet, Hyundai Kona, National Science Foundation, SAE International, U.S, Porsche, Benz, EV, Independent, General Motors, Hyundai, Korea Fair Trade Commission, Virtual Service, Santa, San Francisco Art Locations: AUSTIN, Texas, Colorado, California, Las Vegas, Austin , Texas, Nevada, U.S, Seattle, Vegas, Henderson, Utah, Santa Clara, London, Austin, Seoul, San Francisco

☆ Tesla created secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +19 min

He expected to get something close to the electric sport sedan's advertised driving range: 353 miles on a fully charged battery. The directive to present the optimistic range estimates came from Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk, this person said. Driving range is among the most important factors in consumer decisions on which electric car to buy, or whether to buy one at all. Electric cars can lose driving range for a lot of the same reasons as gasoline cars — but to a greater degree. Independent automotive testers commonly examine the EPA-approved fuel-efficiency or driving range claims against their own experience in structured tests or real-world driving.

Persons: Daniel Acker, Alexandre Ponsin, Tesla, Elon Musk, Elon, Scott Case, Case, Gregory Pannone, Pannone, carmaker, Ford, Jonathan Elfalan, Edmunds, Elfalan, They've Organizations: Tesla Motors Inc, North American, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Tesla, South, Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, Ford, Chevrolet, Hyundai Kona, National Science Foundation, SAE International, U.S, Porsche, Benz, EV, Independent, General Motors, Hyundai, Korea Fair Trade Commission, Service Locations: Detroit , Michigan, Colorado, California, Las Vegas, Austin , Texas, Nevada, U.S, Seattle, Vegas, Henderson, Utah

☆ Morning Bid: Tech splits, banks merge and Fed decides
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Unlucky for some perhaps, but a 13th today would make it the longest winning streak for the Dow since 1987. Meta Platforms (META.O) is up next after Wednesday's closing bell and its share rose 2%. Wells Fargo (WFC.N), meantime, climbed 2.8% after the bank's board authorized a new $30 billion share buyback program. The Fed decision comes in the wake of another set of forecast-beating U.S. consumer confidence readings for July. Elsewhere, the European earnings season was in full swing too, with banks dominating the diary and the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Dow Jones, Wells Fargo, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Molina, Rollins, Edwards, John Stonestreet Organizations: Microsoft, Dow, Netflix, Google, Federal Trade Commission, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, Bank of Japan, HK, . Federal, eBay, Boeing, General Dynamics, Seagate, Union Pacific, CME, Hilton Worldwide, Lam Research, Water Works, United Rentals, Otis, Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, Nasdaq, California, Lam, Everest

☆ NY Fed report finds Americans increasingly facing borrowing headwinds
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Philippe Wojazer/IllustrationJuly 17 (Reuters) - Americans are increasingly getting shot down when they seek out loans, new data from the New York Fed, released Monday, said. The bank said that the overall rejection rate for credit applicants rose to its highest level since June 2018, and stood at 21.8%, from 17.3% in February. Rejection rates for credit cards, credit limit increases also gained ground. The rejection rate for mortgages stood at 13.2% in June from 10% in February, while the rejection rate for mortgage refinancing jumped to 20.8% last month, from 16.3% in the prior survey. The surge in home lending costs has caused Americans to cut back on borrowing there: The New York Fed reported in May that during the first quarter demand for mortgages fell even as overall household debt levels ticked higher.

Persons: Philippe Wojazer, —, Michael S, Aurora Ellis Organizations: American Express, REUTERS, New York Fed, York, Consumer, Thomson Locations: February’s

☆ Morning Bid: Bond yields recoil on disinflation buzz
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanA volte face in Treasury yields has improved investors' mood considerably this week as excitement about U.S. disinflation builds despite conflicting signals from around the world. After bumpy start to the third quarter, stocks and bonds rallied together on Monday - with both two- and 10-year Treasury yields recoiling sharply back below 5% and 4% thresholds respectively. Spurred by more signs of ebbing U.S. inflation ahead of Wednesday's critical June consumer price report, Wall Street stocks also recovered ground on Monday. A New York Fed survey showed on Monday that household inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 3.8% last month, the lowest in more than two years. But if the U.S. inflation picture is looking more optimistic, it's much harder to read around the world.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Michael Barr, John Williams, Joe Biden, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, Federal, Japan's, New York Fed, Fed, Bank of England, Treasuries, York Federal, NATO, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, ., China, Britain, Hong Kong, Vilnius

The Fed has raised interest rates by 5 percentage points since March 2022 to bring down the highest U.S. inflation in four decades. "We may end up doing less because we need to do less; we may end up doing just that; we could end up doing more. Fed policymakers are widely expected to deliver a rate hike at their meeting later this month, a move that would bring the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range. That could buttress the case that price pressures are weakening, which in turn could take some pressure off the central bank to hike rates again. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, speaking at yet another event on Monday, repeated his view that the Fed can be "patient" on rates and allow restrictive policy to bring down inflation without further action by the central bank.

Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, Jerome Powell, Ann Saphir, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Mester, Dan Burns, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Brookings Institution, San Francisco Federal, REUTERS, New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, San Francisco , California

☆ Why the Fed is still likely to raise rates after cooler June jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But beneath the surface, the jobs market remains hot. What’s next: The June Consumer Price Index report, a key inflation reading, is due on Wednesday. The Producer Price Index report for June is due on Thursday. Wednesday: Consumer Price Index report and housing starts for June. Thursday: Producer Price Index report for June.

Persons: ”, Joseph Davis, What’s, That’s, James Ragan, DA Davidson, Candice Tse, Price, Chris Isidore, Biden, Julie Su Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Vanguard, Traders, DA, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, UPS, Teamsters, NY, Reserve’s Survey, University of Michigan

☆ Extreme weather is hitting parts of the US. That’s bad news for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

All told, at least a third of the US population is currently grappling with costly extreme weather events. In 2022, extreme weather events cost the United States about $165 billion, according to the NOAA. Sector by sector: Extreme weather impacts the economy writ large, but certain sectors tend to suffer more than others. Agriculture, construction, tourism and renewable energy sectors also tend to feel the brunt of extreme weather events. “We’re really poorly adapted to the extreme weather and climate that we have right now,” said Mankin.

Persons: New York CNN — We’ve, ”, Justin Mankin, Nam, we’ve, Andrew Watterson, Ian, “ We’re, Mark Thompson, it’s, —, Vladimir Putin, Brent, That’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dartmouth College, Sunday, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA, Travelers, Southwest Airlines, O'Hare International, Agriculture, Rystad Energy, Western, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Consumer Locations: New York, Texas, United States, Chicago, Florida, Russia, China, India, Russian, Moscow, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ More than retail or hotels, the film industry is destroying the planet. But sustainable sets like Oscar winner 'The Whale' may offer a new way forward.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Parisa Hashempour | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

InsiderThe film industry has a sustainability problem, and it's massive: The average tentpole production — a film with a budget over $70 million — generates 2,840 tonnes of carbon dioxide, the British Film Institute reported. Yawger saw raw materials from industry waste transform into items such as tables, outdoor furniture, bowls, and benches. "It revealed the film industry was the second most polluting behind aerospace," Jennifer Sandoval, the director of service development at Earth Angel, told Insider. "Plastic and trash are very visible in the film industry, and people can understand why we need to change things," Yawger said. These changes might help drive a more climate-conscious narrative or simply enable Earth Angel to swap out a character's plastic water bottle for a reusable one.

Persons: Max, Leonardo DiCaprio's, Tamsin Hollo, Hollo, Quinn Yawger, Yawger, it's, we're, Jennifer Sandoval, Sandoval, NBCUniversal, Bosque Organizations: British Film Institute, Railroad, University of California, Netflix, United Locations: Thailand, Atlanta, Los Angeles, California, Niebla, Mexico, United Nations

☆ Two U.S. senators to automakers: don't remove AM radio from new vehicles
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( David Shepardson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, June 23 (Reuters) - Two U.S. senators wrote seven major automakers on Friday urging them not to remove AM radio from new vehicles. "Preserving AM radio not only aligns with the growing recognition of its significance but also demonstrates a commitment to public safety and meeting consumer expectations," the senators wrote. Markey said last month the seven automakers had opted to remove AM broadcast radio from their electric vehicles. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing major automakers, said, "mandating AM radios in all vehicles is unnecessary. Automakers pointed to an existing system that distributes warnings across AM, FM, internet-based or satellite radio, and over cellular networks.

Persons: Ted Cruz, Ed Markey, Markey, Cruz, Jim Farley, Jessica Rosenworcel, David Shepardson, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Republican, Senate, Committee, BMW, Volkswagen, Mazda, Volvo Cars, Ford, The Alliance, Automotive Innovation, Federal Communications, Thomson

☆ Bull market or fool's market? Investors say the latter
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Mega-cap tech stocks that were battered by rising interest rates in 2022 have also seen a huge boost this year. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady but indicated that it could hike rates twice more this year. Tech stocks’ record runApple shares closed at a record high on Thursday, creeping closer to reaching a $3 trillion market capitalization. The rally’s next testDespite some bullish signs in the market, investors say the math isn’t adding up to a sustained rally — especially considering a possible recession looms on the horizon. The central bank last Wednesday paused interest rates and indicated that it could raise rates two more times this year.

Persons: Dow, ”, Amanda Agati, Wednesday’s, Stocks, Joe Biden, Dan Ives, “, ” Ives, Richard Steinberg, Jerome Powell, Agati, Sylvia Jablonski, Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, ” Waller, Sarah Henry, Henry, Here’s, Price, Refinitiv, Paul Eitelman, ” Eitelman Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Apple, Nasdaq, PNC Financial Services, Management, “, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Wedbush Securities, Microsoft, The Colony, Treasury, ”, Federal, Richmond Fed, Logan Capital Management, CPI, PPI, University of, Consumers, North America, Russell Investments, Wednesday, National Association of Realtors, Senate Locations: New York, what’s, Oslo

☆ US consumers' near-term inflation expectations hit two-year low; sentiment rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary Consumer sentiment index rises to 63.9 in June from 59.2One-year inflation expectations drop to 3.3% from 4.2%Long-run inflation expectations dip to 3.0% from 3.1%WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers' near-term inflation expectations dropped to more than a two-year low in June and the outlook over the next five years improved slightly, according to a survey on Friday that also showed sentiment perking up. "The Fed will be gratified that the surge in inflation expectations in the late-1970s and early 1980s has not been repeated," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York. The University of Michigan survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.3% this month, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.2% in May. The survey's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at a four-month high of 63.9 in June compared with 59.2 in May. Its measure of consumer expectations rose to 61.3 from 55.4 last month.

Persons: Conrad DeQuadros, Joanne Hsu, Robert Frick, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Organizations: University of Michigan's, Fed, Wednesday, Brean, The University of Michigan, Treasury, Reuters, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Washington, Vienna , Virginia

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