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watch nowThe global shipping industry has been mired in a freight recession this year and the challenging economic conditions will continue into 2024, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey. The CNBC Supply Chain Survey was conducted October 21-October 31 among logistics executives who manage freight manufacturing orders and transportation, including those at C.H. "Without more freight moving, 2024, and potentially 2025, will continue to see soft pricing as capacity outstrips demand," he said. Freight trucking will remain soft Trucking companies get paid per load, and low expectations for orders imply potentially lower revenue this holiday season. A slightly better second half 2024 outlook The survey shows expectations for a slight turnaround in freight volume in the second half of 2024.
Persons: Robinson, Kuehne, Nagel, Zhang Jingang, Alan Baer, Noah Hoffman, Jeff Bezos, Uber, Tim Robertson, Robertson, Brian Bourke Organizations: CNBC Supply Chain Survey, CNBC, Chain Survey, SEKO Logistics, DHL Global, USA, ITS Logistics, Getty, Logistics, C.H, Surface Transportation, Convoy, Tank Transport Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, China
There are reasons for the central bank to be, as policymakers have said, "careful" in approving any further rate increases. "We think real rates are higher due to very strong US growth," analysts from Citi wrote ahead of this week's Fed meeting. As of the September meeting, Fed officials said they still felt one more rate hike would be necessary. But Powell has also said growth needs to slow - and if it doesn't, it means the Fed's policy rate will need to move higher. It's a good thing that the labor market's strong," Powell said at his press conference following the end of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Citi, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Investors, Gross, Oxford Economics, Conference Board, Conference Board's, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, joblessness
HONG KONG (AP) — Asian shares were mixed on Monday ahead of a Federal Reserve decision this week on interest rates. U.S. futures gained while oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel. That’s particularly concerning for the Fed, which fears such expectations could lead to a vicious cycle that worsens high inflation. The Shanghai Composite index rose 0.3% to 3,025.76. As one of the most massive companies on Wall Street, Amazon’s stock movements carry huge weight on the S&P 500 and other indexes.
Persons: Netanyahu, Australia’s, Stocks, Russell, Ford, Brent Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, U.S, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, China, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Wall, Intel, United Auto Workers, Treasury, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S . Locations: HONG KONG, Israel, Israeli, Gaza, China, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok
The days of rising interest rates could soon be over
  + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
What’s happening: US Treasury rates are white hot — 10-year Treasury yields are near their highest levels since 2007. It also means more expensive mortgage rates. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasuries. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. US mortgage rates are at 23 year-highs, and home affordability is at its lowest level since 1984.
Persons: haven’t, Philip Jefferson, ” That’s, Lorie Logan, Raphael Bostic, , , ” Bostic, Mary Daly, Bonds, What’s, Birkenstock, Elisabeth Buchwald, Megan Penick, Robinson, Rachel Ramirez, It’s, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Financial, CME, Treasury, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Consumer, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, American Bankers Association, San Francisco Fed, Index, PPI, CPI, New York Stock Exchange, Renaissance, Nature Communications Locations: New York, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovenia
REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsFRANKFURT, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Euro zone households see inflation staying slightly above the European Central Bank's 2% target for another three years, an ECB survey showed, as rate-setters struggle to convince the public that their plans for taming price pressures are on track. While consumer expectations for inflation are by nature imprecise, they can influence wage demands, spending and saving. Consumers' views about inflation in the coming 12 months showed a slight increase to 3.5%, from 3.4% in July. The ECB has said that long-term inflation expectations from economists, investors and consumers are "at around 2%", but cautioned that some projections have risen and should be monitored. But they turned more optimistic about their income - seen growing by 1.2% from 1.1% - and raised their predictions for home price inflation, to 2.3% from 2.1%, for the first time since March.
Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Francesco Canepa, Alison Williams, John Stonestreet Organizations: Carrefour, REUTERS, Rights, Central, ECB, Thomson Locations: Montesson, Paris, France
From arts and entertainment to health and wellness, businesses across industries are tapping into financial technology to drive growth. Below are three tips to help enterprises stay informed on the latest financial technology trends, while delivering value to their customers and employees. Choosing a single payment platform is a good starting point for increasing agility, but the type of platform you choose matters. Taking the next stepFor businesses looking to scale amid a changing economic landscape, a single financial technology platform isn't just a choice; it's a necessity. Learn more about how Adyen's single payment platform can help your enterprise meet the evolving needs of customers and businesses.
Persons: , Pepe Jeans, Vázquez Cabezas Organizations: Enterprise, Terme, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Connect, Marketing, Insider Studios Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Adyen
Minneapolis CNN —Buy Now, Pay Later installment payment offerings appear to be disproportionately used by people facing financial difficulties, raising concerns about the potential for greater money trouble, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Tuesday. New York Fed researchers delved into recently collected consumer survey data to determine who is being offered BNPL options and who uses them. They drew on data collected as part of the June 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations Credit Access Survey, which included a set of BNPL-specific questions. “The fact that a disproportionate share of BNPL users are already financially fragile raises questions about the resilience of BNPL lending and its performance following an adverse economic shock,” New York Fed researchers wrote. The New York Fed research substantiates previously raised concerns from critics that BNPL may attract — and could ultimately harm — financially fragile individuals.
Persons: Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, Consumer, Survey, ” New York Fed, Consumer Financial Protection Locations: Minneapolis
Retail fuel prices in the U.S. and Europe have risen to multi-month highs as crude prices have rallied. "If energy prices increase and stay high, that'll have an effect on spending, and it may have an effect on consumer expectations for inflation, things like that. High interest rates are already curbing demand across Western economies, including for oil. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday pressed pause on interest rates, but did not rule out one more hike this year. President Joe Biden has already promised to cut prices, though has not said how, and in the short term the impact of autumn refinery maintenance on supplies could keep prices high.
Persons: Mike Segar, Brent, Jerome Powell, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, PVM's Tamas Varga, I'm, Craig Erlam, Ajay Parmar, Joe Biden, Gordon Balmer, Natalie Grover, Robert Harvey, Mark John, Balazs Koranyi, Dan Burns, Simon Webb, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Exxon, REUTERS, . West Texas Intermediate, Reuters, Retail, Federal, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, U.S . Federal Reserve, HSBC, Energy Information Administration, U.S, Diesel, Energy, Petrol Retailers, Thomson Locations: Edgewater , New Jersey, U.S, OPEC, Europe, Brazil, Guyana, United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Britain, France, London, Frankfurt, New York
Hopes for a soft landing in the economy could be dashed as a number of risks start to converge. These are four risks that could send the economy into a recession sooner rather than later, according to Raymond James. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy is more likely to enter a mild recession than stick a soft landing, according to a Friday note from Raymond James. AdvertisementAdvertisementThese are the four risks that could ultimately tip the economy into a recession, according to Adam. Labor market is weakening"The labor market's strength is finally starting to wane.
Persons: Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam, Banks, shutdowns Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, United Auto Workers
One is that the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index continues to show signs of slowing economic growth. "Real GDI has never fallen three quarters in a row without the economy being in a recession," Wolfenbarger said. This partially informs his call for the S&P 500 to fall to around 2,250, which would represent 48% downside from current levels. When it comes to Wolfenbarger's 48% sell-off call, it's well outside the mainstream of where strategists see stocks going. With valuations high, a meaningful recession could make that three times, as Wolfenbarger is warning.
Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Costa, Louis, Warren Buffett Organizations: JPMorgan, Bull, Institute for Supply Management's, Crescat, Federal Reserve Bank of St, downturns . Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: downturns .
Loan approval: Why has it gotten so much harder?
  + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Magnusson said that while she used USAA for a personal loan in the past, this time, the process felt very different. Lately, it may take more than just a good credit score for many people to get approved for a loan. Deutsche Bank recently told investors that bank lending conditions look “consistent with recession levels,” even though the US is not currently in a recession. Magnusson said she was “in tears” after spending hours on the phone with USAA to secure the loan over multiple days. McBride said that although loan application rejections are up and standards are tougher, getting a loan is still possible for those with good credit.
Persons: Cheryl Magnusson, Magnusson, , USAA, , Greg McBride, , ” McBride, Nathan Howard, McBride, William Brown, Brown, we’ve, ” Brown, “ I’ve, I’ve, Darlene Johnson, ” Johnson, Scott Olson Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Consumer, Deutsche Bank, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Navy, Suncoast Credit Union, Suncoast, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Locations: Arizona, Washington , DC, Silicon, Florida, Hawthorn Woods , Illinois
A widely followed gauge of future economic activity declined 0.4% in August, continuing a nearly 18-month drop, the Conference Board said on Thursday. The business organization’s Leading Economic Index is now down 3.8% over the past six months and is exhibiting all the signs that a recession is imminent. “The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. Economists have generally been surprised by the strength of the U.S. economy this year, especially the resilience of the labor market in the face of rising interest rates. However, prices are holding firm with the median price of an existing home reaching $407,100 – up 3.9% from a year ago.
Persons: , Justyna, Monica, Jerome Powell, “ I’ve, “ It’s Organizations: Conference, US, Board, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors Locations: U.S
TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly lower in cautious trading Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates. “Market sentiment remained in its usual wait-and-see ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG. Political Cartoons View All 1167 ImagesStocks have been see-sawing since early August on uncertainty about whether the Fed will finally end its hikes to interest rates. Attention will mainly focus on forecasts Fed officials will publish about where they expect interest rates, the economy and the job market to head in upcoming years. But just as much attention will be on what Fed officials say about next year, when investors expect the Fed to begin cutting interest rates.
Persons: Australia's, Seng, , Yeap Jun Rong, it’s, Doug Ramsey, It’s, Ramsey, Clorox, Ford, That’s, Brent Organizations: TOKYO, Federal, Nikkei, IG, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Traders, CME Group, Fed, Ford, General Motors, United Auto Workers, Exxon Mobil, Marathon Petroleum, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S Locations: Hong, Shanghai, Japan's
The U.S. seemed to be winning its battle against inflation, but the latest consumer price index data showed inflation rose more than expected. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment August survey indicated consumers' one-year inflation expectations were at 3.3%, marking three consecutive months of stability. Inflation expectations, or the rate at which consumers expect prices to rise or fall in the future, can influence higher prices in the economy. Inflation expectations play a crucial role in the decisions made by the Federal Reserve. But consumer expectations of inflation are still above the Fed's 2% inflation rate target.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, It's, Hsu, Claudia Sahm, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Barry Glassman Organizations: University of Michigan, The University of, Consumers, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Sahm Consulting, Federal, Kansas City, Wealth Services Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
The results were part of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August. Fears of credit access have been rising steadily since early 2022, around the same time that the Fed began raising interest rates. While the Fed worries over higher prices, the inflation outlook was mixed. Expectations for inflation one year and five years out rose just 0.1 percentage point on the month, taking them respectively to 3.6% and 3%. That comes with an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, or 0.1 percentage point above its year-ago level.
Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, York Fed's Survey, Fed Locations: New, York
78% of global consumers said they will be more loyal to businesses that help them through difficult times. of global consumers said they will be more loyal to businesses that help them through difficult times. These activities not only help make businesses more competitive, they also show workers that employers care about their professional growth. Here are three strategies businesses are using to help consumers navigate economic instability. 5 Le Parisien, Carrefour launches an online 'anti-inflation button' to help consumers buy cheaper, Nov 2022.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, upskilling, there's, that's, Agrobank, PwC, Kantar Organizations: PayPal, TrendWatching, Consumers, University of Michigan, Carrefour, Entrepreneurship, Insider Studios Locations: verticals, Malaysia
People walk by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the financial district of New York City, U.S., June 14, 2023. Meanwhile, respondents to the bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations said that the lowest wage they’d accept to take a job also jumped, hitting a record $78,645, from $72,873 a year ago. The survey said that survey respondents said that in July the average wage offered for a full-time job was $69,475 versus $60,764 in July 2022. The jump in compensation, actual and expected, came even as poll respondents saw some softening around the edges of the job market. The New York Fed reports on labor market expectations quarterly as part of a data series best known for tracking the expected path of inflation and household financial situations.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, they’re, there’s, they’d, , Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, bank’s Survey, Consumer Expectations, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
ECB core obsession raises risk of policy mistake
  + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Headline inflation in the euro zone has halved in the past nine months and was 5.3% in July. Granted, both headline and core inflation are currently above the ECB’s 2% target. In fact, core tends to follow headline inflation because its narrower composition makes it stickier. That’s because, as the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said recently, headline inflation is “really what the public experiences”. ECB President Christine Lagarde has pledged to be “data-dependent”.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Martin Heidegger, that’s, Joachim Nagel, Germany’s Bundesbank, Klaas Knot, Lucrezia Reichlin, Michele Lenza, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Klaas, Neil Unmack, Oliver Taslic, Streisand Neto Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Financial Times, U.S . Federal, Eurostat, Central, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, German, Ukraine
CNN —Earnings season continues this week with Target, Walmart, TJ Maxx parent company TJX and other high-profile retailers set to release their quarterly results. That shift showed up in earnings results for retailers including Home Depot and Target earlier this year. US retail spending, which is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, inched up in June but fell below economists’ expectations. Americans feel hopeful inflation is coolingAmericans are feeling more optimistic that inflation is trending down now and into the future. Consumer spending expectations ticked up from the month before but remain below levels seen during the past year, according to the report.
Persons: TJ Maxx, hasn’t, Christina Hennington, Doug McMillon, they’re, Matt Egan Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Target, Walmart, TJ, Shoppers, Home Depot, Refinitiv, , University of Michigan’s, Consumer, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve, AAA, Labor Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Russia, Saudi Arabia
The S&P 500 ended slightly lower Friday, logging its second straight week of losses. Stocks had kicked off the day with declines after the producer-price index showed supplier prices ticking up from June's flat reading. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell, while the Dow Industrials edged up. The FTSE 100 slid and the pound rallied after data showed the U.K. economy grew. Chinese stocks fell.
Persons: Stocks, TINA, Wynn Organizations: Investors, Nasdaq, Dow, UBS, Credit Suisse, Casino, Wynn Resorts, Caesars, Bank of England Locations: Swiss, Shanghai
A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File PhotoFRANKFURT, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Euro zone consumers expect inflation to keep slowing in the next months and years but remain pessimistic about their purchasing power and house prices, a European Central Bank survey showed on Tuesday. Consumers also cut their expectations for inflation three years ahead to 2.3% from 2.5% in May - inching closer to the ECB's 2% target. The survey also showed that consumers continued to expect their income to grow much more slowly - at 1.2% - than inflation and spending over the next 12 months, implying an expected lowering of living standards and savings. An article accompanying the survey showed that households' perceptions about housing have deteriorated markedly since mid-2021 due to expectations of higher mortgage rates and inflation as well as lower economic growth.
Persons: Heiko Becker, Francesco Canepa, Andrew Heavens Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany
Headline PCE inflation including food and energy costs also increased 0.2% on the month and rose 3% on an annual basis. So-called core PCE rose 4.1% from a year ago, compared with the estimate for 4.2%. The annual rate was the lowest since September 2021 and marked a decrease from the 4.6% pace in May. Readings such as the consumer price index are showing a slower rise in inflation, while consumer expectations also are also coming back in line with longer-term trends. Along with the inflation data, the Commerce Department said personal income rose 0.3% while spending increased 0.5%.
Persons: Dow Jones, George Mateyo, Jerome Powell Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Markets, Treasury, Key Private Bank, Fed
He expected to get something close to the electric sport sedan’s advertised driving range: 353 miles on a fully charged battery. Driving range is among the most important factors in consumer decisions on which electric car to buy, or whether to buy one at all. Electric cars can lose driving range for a lot of the same reasons as gasoline cars — but to a greater degree. The EPA said all the changes to Tesla’s range estimates were made before the company used the figures on window stickers. Independent automotive testers commonly examine the EPA-approved fuel-efficiency or driving range claims against their own experience in structured tests or real-world driving.
Persons: Alexandre Ponsin, , Tesla, Elon Musk, “ Elon, Scott Case, Case, Gregory Pannone, Pannone, “ They've, carmaker, Ford, I’m, ” Pannone, ” Jonathan Elfalan, Edmunds, Elfalan, ” Elfalan, Santa Clara –, Ponsin, ” Ponsin, , Steve Stecklow, Norihiko, Heekyong Yang, Peter Henderson, Eve Watling, Lucy Ha, Ilan Rubens, Brian Thevenot Organizations: Reuters, Tesla, South, Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, Ford, Chevrolet, Hyundai Kona, National Science Foundation, SAE International, U.S, Porsche, Benz, EV, Independent, General Motors, Hyundai, Korea Fair Trade Commission, Virtual Service, Santa, San Francisco Art Locations: AUSTIN, Texas, Colorado, California, Las Vegas, Austin , Texas, Nevada, U.S, Seattle, Vegas, Henderson, Utah, Santa Clara, London, Austin, Seoul, San Francisco
He expected to get something close to the electric sport sedan's advertised driving range: 353 miles on a fully charged battery. The directive to present the optimistic range estimates came from Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk, this person said. Driving range is among the most important factors in consumer decisions on which electric car to buy, or whether to buy one at all. Electric cars can lose driving range for a lot of the same reasons as gasoline cars — but to a greater degree. Independent automotive testers commonly examine the EPA-approved fuel-efficiency or driving range claims against their own experience in structured tests or real-world driving.
Persons: Daniel Acker, Alexandre Ponsin, Tesla, Elon Musk, Elon, Scott Case, Case, Gregory Pannone, Pannone, carmaker, Ford, Jonathan Elfalan, Edmunds, Elfalan, They've Organizations: Tesla Motors Inc, North American, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Tesla, South, Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, Ford, Chevrolet, Hyundai Kona, National Science Foundation, SAE International, U.S, Porsche, Benz, EV, Independent, General Motors, Hyundai, Korea Fair Trade Commission, Service Locations: Detroit , Michigan, Colorado, California, Las Vegas, Austin , Texas, Nevada, U.S, Seattle, Vegas, Henderson, Utah
Morning Bid: Tech splits, banks merge and Fed decides
  + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Unlucky for some perhaps, but a 13th today would make it the longest winning streak for the Dow since 1987. Meta Platforms (META.O) is up next after Wednesday's closing bell and its share rose 2%. Wells Fargo (WFC.N), meantime, climbed 2.8% after the bank's board authorized a new $30 billion share buyback program. The Fed decision comes in the wake of another set of forecast-beating U.S. consumer confidence readings for July. Elsewhere, the European earnings season was in full swing too, with banks dominating the diary and the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow.
Persons: Mike Dolan, Dow Jones, Wells Fargo, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Molina, Rollins, Edwards, John Stonestreet Organizations: Microsoft, Dow, Netflix, Google, Federal Trade Commission, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank, Bank of Japan, HK, . Federal, eBay, Boeing, General Dynamics, Seagate, Union Pacific, CME, Hilton Worldwide, Lam Research, Water Works, United Rentals, Otis, Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, Nasdaq, California, Lam, Everest
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