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Yields on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes inverted last week. Peter Essele believes stocks will behave differently this time around, however. When people talk about an inverted yield curve as a recession harbinger, they're usually referring to the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes. But the inversion of yields on the 3-month bill and the 10-year note is a rarer occurrence, and therefore a better recession indicator, according to some economists. While 2-year yields rose higher that 10-year yields this past spring, yields on the 3-month note surpassed 10-year yields just this week.
Average 30-year mortgage rates, by some measures, now sit above 7%. Add Morgan Stanley to the list of firms who now expect a decline in home prices in 2023. "We now think that YoY home price growth will turn negative in the first half of the year before finishing 2023 at -3%," they added. Morgan StanleyThe Morgan Stanley strategists see that trend to continuing. That's assuming mortgage rates stay at 6%, which they estimate is probably a conservative level.
Below we've compiled views from 5 money managers on how to navigate bear market environments. When the going gets tough in financial markets, it can be difficult to know what to do with your money. To help navigate the current environment, we've compiled views from money managers on the best ways to approach investing in bear markets. Jeremy Grantham, founder of GMOJeremy Grantham is no stranger to bear markets — he called the 2000 and 2008 sell-offs, as well as the current one. Essele's top tip for navigating bear markets, however, is a more simple one: "Buy a lot of brown liquor."
It wants to achieve a soft landing — that Goldilocks ideal of cooling the economy enough to bring down prices but not enough to cause a recession. The new aim appears to be for a so-called growth recession: A prolonged period of meager growth and rising unemployment. The pain is sharper and lasts longer than that of a soft landing, but a “growth” recession doesn’t pull the entire economy into contraction the way a proper recession would. It looks like a recession, and feels like a recession, but it isn’t a recession — at least not officially. A growth recession is still painful.
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