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The hope can be seen in the domestic iron ore price, with contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange outperforming Singapore futures. There are also some fundamental supports for the iron ore price, most noticeably declining inventories at China's ports. In the same week last year, inventories were at 128.3 million metric tonnes, or 1.6% above the current level. China iron ore imports vs SGX price:SOFT ECONOMIC DATACountering the positive indicators for iron ore demand is a raft of underwhelming economic data that shows China's rebound after ending its strict zero-COVID policy in December has been uneven. The weak data may actually boost iron ore sentiment, as investors will expect further stimulus measures from Beijing.

Persons: SteelHome, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Dalian, Exchange, China Iron and Steel Association, National Bureau of Statistics, Retail, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Beijing, Singapore, Dalian, April's

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) medium-term oil market report, released on Wednesday, forecast that Asia, and particularly China, was the engine of crude oil and refined product demand growth up until 2028. The report highlights that this presents both opportunities and risks for the global oil and product markets. The main risk is that the world's reliance on China's exports of refined fuels increases, but China's exports aren't determined by market imperatives. The IEA said China had about 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of unused refining capacity at the beginning of 2023. The IEA said its forecast for global product balances over the 2022-28 period is "heavily dependent on higher Chinese product exports, especially for diesel".

Persons: Clyde Russell, Tom Hogue Organizations: Energy, Beijing, IEA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Asia, CHINA, Asia skyrocketing, Singapore, Russia, Ukraine

Another factor that several conference participants identified as vital is that the projects must have customers signed up before FIDs are made. GREEN METHANOLMethanol is shaping up as having the best potential for Tasmanian hydrogen projects, since it can be used to decarbonise shipping, one of the sectors deemed hardest to shift away from fossil fuels. Methanol in Tasmania would be made from combining green hydrogen with wood waste or wood chips. The state-owned grid operator, TasNetworks, needs to build some new transmission lines and refurbish others to meet the additional electricity requirements. And finally, some wind power projects need also to get to FID, with the 1,000-MW Bass Offshore Wind Energy project now looking set to be the first cab off the rank.

Persons: ABEL, Marinus Organizations: Tasmanian Energy Development Conference, FIDs, ABEL Energy, Hydro, Energy, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Australia's, Tasmania, Devonport, Bell, Tasmanian, Hydro Tasmania, Victoria, FID

These comments represent just one of the contradictions in the current oil market. The desire for a stable oil market is extremely difficult to reconcile with being unpredictable. But the risk is that the increase isn't sustained, largely as a result of another oil market contradiction. It's another contradiction for the oil market to resolve as those three exporters are all under some form of Western sanctions. It may well be the case that the second half of this year sees a huge pick-up in crude oil demand.

Persons: Prince Abdulaziz bin, Brent, Sonali Paul Organizations: Organization of, Petroleum, Saudi Energy, Brent, International Energy Agency, SECOND, Saudi Aramco, Aramco, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Saudi, OPEC, Vienna, Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia

Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has been matched by soft outcomes in other important parts of the world's second-biggest economy. Rather it is construction and manufacturing that propel commodity demand, especially for steel raw material iron ore and for copper. The softness in those sectors is likely to show up in commodity imports in coming months, but not yet. Seaborne iron ore imports are expected at about 93.29 million tonnes, according to Refinitiv data, which would be stronger than the 90.44 million tonnes recorded by customs in April. If this is the case, it's likely that they may consider trimming imports in coming months, especially if the run of soft economic data continues.

Persons: it's, Robert Birsel Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Refinitiv Oil Research, Global, Brent, Singapore, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, March's

LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 30 (Reuters) - Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal surged to the highest on record in May as cheaper prices tempted buyers in the region's developing economies. This is the most in Kpler data going back to January 2017, while Refinitiv data also shows record imports in May in data stretching back to January 2015. Rising thermal coal imports come as seaborne prices for the fuel continue to decline, with two of the more popular grades slipping to 16-month lows in the week to May 26. While lower prices and rising electricity demand are driving thermal coal imports in developing Asia, the advanced economies in north Asia are experiencing their usual seasonal lull between winter and summer peaks. Fourth-ranked South Korea will import 6.03 million tonnes in May, down from 6.70 million in April and 6.42 million in March.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 22 (Reuters) - The spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is in the sweet spot of being low enough to boost buying interest, but not so low that it sparks a surge in demand. The decline in spot LNG prices has seen demand in key Asian importers hold steady, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. The seasonal softness can be seen in Japan's May imports dropping to an expected 4.24 million tonnes from 5.0 million in April and 5.55 million in March. However, it's likely that the decline in spot prices will only boost demand from June onwards, and there are some early signs that this is already happening. The lower spot price in Asia is also working to boost buying interest in Europe, with May imports expected at 12.28 million tonnes, up a smidgeon from April's 12.27 million.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 19 (Reuters) - Chinese refiners dipped into crude oil inventories in April for the first time in 18 months, as high processing rates exceeded the volume of crude available from both imports and domestic output. The volume of crude available to refiners from imports and domestic output in April was 59.71 million tonnes, equivalent to 14.53 million bpd. For April, the total amount of crude available was 340,000 bpd below the volume processed by refiners, the first time since November 2021 that refiners have drawn on inventories. CRUDE IMPORTS RECOVEROn the crude import side the picture is more interesting, with April arrivals the lowest since January at 10.3 million bpd. For May, it seems likely that imports will recover, with Refinitiv Oil Research estimating arrivals of 11.83 million bpd, a jump of 1.53 million bpd from April's soft outcome.

Companies Woodside Energy Group Ltd FollowADELAIDE, May 17 (Reuters) - Australia's vast liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry is trying to pull off something that seems almost impossible. They want to lead the transition to clean and renewable energy, while at the same time continuing to invest in, and produce fossil fuels. For example, Woodside is spending some $12 billion to develop its Scarborough natural gas field off Western Australia's coast, and has another advanced LNG project with its Browse field. But the hydrogen projects are largely still at the early stages and even if all the permitting approvals are received, they will still take several years to get up and running. It's an industry-wide problem that projects take several years, and sometimes more than a decade to go from initial proposal to actual production.

SINGAPORE, May 11 (Reuters) - If the global energy transition is to be delivered in the coming decades, the mining industry believes there is one certainty. One thing most mining and energy transition analysts agree on is that there is currently insufficient copper production to meet anticipated demand as the world moves to electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies. If this is the case, the question is then why the future price of copper is relatively flat relative to the current price. It now takes an average of 23 years from discovery of a copper resource to a producing mine, according to data shown at the conference by Michael Langford, the executive director of consultants Airguide. The industry view is that many of the people demanding an energy transition the loudest are the very same people working hardest to make it virtually impossible to produce the necessary metals.

SINGAPORE, May 9 (Reuters) - China's imports of major commodities lost momentum in April as the strong start to the year faded amid uncertainty about the strength and composition of the recovery in the world's second-biggest economy. Crude imports were the lowest since January and the decline places a question mark over just how strong demand is in the world's largest oil importer. One factor worth noting is that China's exports of refined fuels also dropped sharply in April to 3.75 million tonnes, down 31.2% from 5.75 million tonnes in March. Part of the strength in China's crude imports in the first quarter was driven by a massive 59.8% surge in exports of refined fuels. Iron ore imports dropped to 90.44 million tonnes in April, down 9.8% from March but up 5.1% from April last year.

This was down from March's 27.6 million bpd, which in turn was lower than February's 29.4 million bpd and the 29.13 million bpd in January. Asia crude oil imports vs Brent priceINDIA SLOWS IMPORTSThis could extend to other major buyers in Asia, with the region's second-biggest importer India showing signs of moderating crude appetite in April. Imports were estimated at 4.60 million bpd in April, down from the eight-month high of 5.02 million bpd in March. Russian crude is also winning against Saudi oil in China, with April arrivals of 2.10 million bpd beating out the 1.73 million bpd from the Middle East's top exporter. The overall view on Asia's imports is that April showed a loss of momentum after a strong start to the year.

To be sure, China's imports of thermal coal from Australia, the world's second-biggest coal exporter, still lag well behind the 19.29 million tonnes in April from top supplier Indonesia. Australian thermal coal also tends to head to southern ports, but the grade most often imported by China has a higher energy content than those from Indonesia, meaning Australian fuel tends to compete directly with local supplies. China and India imports of Australian thermal coalINDIA SWITCHES TO SOUTH AFRICAWhile China has been snapping up Australian thermal coal, volumes being shipped to India, the world's second-largest importer, have been slipping. India's total imports of thermal coal are expected to rise to 14.77 million tonnes in April, with Indonesia taking the lion's share at 9.66 million tonnes. As Australian thermal coal has left India's import mix, imports from rivals such as South Africa have moved higher.

India's crude imports from Russia are expected to reach a record high in April as Asia's second-biggest oil buyer increasingly turns away from its traditional suppliers in the Middle East. As Russian oil was increasingly sanctioned and shunned by European buyers and some in Asia, such as Japan, the steep discounts on offer led to India's refiners buying increasing volumes. The Middle East's share of India's imports likely dropped to 39.8% in April, according to Refinitiv, down from the 12-month average of 56%. While the buying of Russian crude is fairly broad-based among India's refiners, the biggest buyer is Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), which operates a 1.24 million bpd refinery complex in Jamnagar. Kpler data shows that this complex is expected to receive 20.87 million barrels of Russian crude in April, or about 30% of the total volume of India's imports.

The spot price for benchmark 62% iron ore for delivery to north China , as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, dropped to $110.25 a tonne on April 21, the lowest since Dec. 20. China produces just over half of the world's steel and buys more than 70% of seaborne iron ore, with the main exporters being Australia, Brazil and South Africa. It's also the case the outlook for iron ore demand in China is not particularly clear cut, with some positive macro drivers but also areas of concern. This implies that steel mills may be looking to increase iron ore imports, especially if they plan to keep production at relatively high levels. Overall, the outlook for China's iron ore and steel demand is less assured than it was at the start of the year, when optimism over the economic re-opening abounded.

Crude imports in March were 12.37 million bpd, while domestic output was 4.30 million bpd, giving a combined total of 16.67 million bpd. Subtracting the refinery throughput leaves 1.56 million bpd that likely flowed into either commercial or strategic inventories. The question for the oil market is what does it all mean for the outlook for crude oil demand in China? There is nothing inherently wrong with OPEC+'s forecast for global oil demand growth of 2.32 million bpd in 2023, or the 2 million bpd forecast from the International Energy Agency. By building stockpiles now, they can reduce crude imports later in the year if they deem prices to be too high.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 18 (Reuters) - There is an increasing disconnect between the forecasts for strong global oil demand growth this year, led by Asia, and the reality of weakening margins for refined fuels. The profit from turning a barrel of Dubai crude into refined products at a typical Singapore refinery dropped to $2.53 a barrel on Monday. The falling margins on refined fuels may result in refiners in Asia processing less, especially as crude costs continue to rise. Despite the current problems facing refiners, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are sticking to bullish forecasts for crude demand growth in 2023. OPEC is also maintaining a bullish view for 2023 oil demand growth, keeping its forecast for an increase of 2.32 million bpd in its latest monthly report.

China's coal imports leapt to a three-year high in March, with official data showing arrivals of 41.17 million tonnes, up 151% from the same month in 2022. China's coal imports from Australia were 2.73 million tonnes, with 2.13 million assessed as the thermal grade used in power plants, with 417,576 tonnes being coking coal used to make steel. Chinese utilities used to be major buyers of Australian thermal coal with an energy content of 5,500 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg). This advantage is driving Chinese buying of Australian coal, with Kpler estimating that arrivals in April will reach 5.04 million tonnes, with thermal coal accounting for 4.72 million tonnes. The question for the seaborne coal market is whether China's renewed interest in Australian coal is a sustainable trend, or whether it is simply opportunistic buying that will wither if the price advantage slips.

For the first quarter, China's refined product exports were up 59.8% to 18.2 million tonnes, equivalent to about 1.62 million bpd. For the first quarter in 2022, refined fuel exports were 1.01 million bpd, meaning they have risen by 610,000 bpd in the same period this year. IMPACT OF FUEL EXPORTSThere are also several other questions for the market to ponder, such as do strong Chinese refined fuel exports, while increasing China's crude imports, actually result in lower demand elsewhere as China's products displace supplies from other exporters? It's likely that China's refined product exports will remain elevated in April as refiners use up their quotas and Beijing encourages exports as part of efforts to boost economic activity. Overall, the current picture in China is one of strong crude imports and even stronger refined product exports.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 12 (Reuters) - Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports in March. India was another LNG importer stung by the record high spot prices last year, but is returning to the market as prices retreat. Europe's March LNG imports were 11.49 million tonnes, up from February's 11.37 million, according to Kpler. The question for the market is whether the signs of stronger demand in Europe and among some buyers in Asia will be enough to spark a renewed rally in spot prices. And if spot prices do head higher, how quickly will that translate to lower demand from price-sensitive buyers in Asia such as India and Pakistan.

China produces more than half of the world's steel and buys about 70% of global seaborne iron ore, one of two key raw materials for steel, the other being coking coal. It's not just prices that are declining, there are signs that iron ore volumes and steel output are also weakening slightly. China's iron ore imports are estimated by Refinitiv at 94.17 million tonnes in March, which translates to a daily rate of 3.04 million tonnes. What the drop in prices, seaborne iron ore imports and steel output appear to be pointing to is a moderation in demand expectations in China. This suggests that iron ore and coking coal demand will remain solid, but may not rise much over 2023 as a whole.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 6 (Reuters) - Asia's imports of crude oil stayed at relatively robust levels in March, as strong inflows to the top-importing region's heavyweights China and India offset weaker demand among some others buyers. Total March crude imports were estimated by Refinitiv Oil Research at 116.73 million tonnes, equivalent to 27.60 million barrels per day (bpd). This was up almost 4% from February's 112.32 million tonnes, but down 6.1% on a daily basis from February's 29.4 million bpd, and also below January's 29.13 million bpd. However, the first three months of 2023 were stronger than every month in 2022, except for November when Asia's crude imports were 29.10 million bpd. Saudi Arabia reclaimed its place as China's top supplier with 8.08 million tonnes, or a share of 16.4%, edging out Russia at 7.95 million tonnes, or a share of 16.1%.

The government forecaster does expect Australia to export rising volumes of new energy metals, including lithium, nickel, copper and zinc. Coking coal shipments are expected to rise to 172 million tonnes from 164 million, although the price is forecast to drop to $185 a tonne from $296. Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to remain largely steady with the 80 million tonnes in 2027-28 being little changed from the 82 million in 2022-23. Iron ore export volumes are tipped to rise to 989 million tonnes by 2027-28 from the 887 million forecast for 2022-23. Overall, the Australian government is painting a strong outlook for commodity export volumes, but a soft outcome for prices, even for the energy transition metals.

This brings the total pledged output cuts by the group to around 3.66 million bpd, around 3.7% of global demand, and these are expected to remain in place until the end of the year. Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, said the additional reduction is precautionary and aimed at achieving stability in the global oil market. Contained within the decision to cut output is the tacit admission that the demand side of the crude equation may not be as bullish as had been forecast by virtually every major energy body and the analyst community. Most likely it would have been well below the $79.77 a barrel it ended at on March 31, which was the closing price before Sunday's shock move to further cut output. China has also been accumulating more oil than it is consuming, despite rising domestic demand and refinery processing rates.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, March 28 (Reuters) - China's crude oil imports will average 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, matching the previous record high from 2020, according to the think tank of the country's leading energy group. What is interesting with the ETRI forecasts is that they would seem to show that China's refiners are still expecting to add crude oil to stockpiles over 2023. This is some 370,000 bpd more than the ETRI forecast for refinery throughput of 14.66 million bpd. China's crude oil imports seen rebounding to new high in 2023NEW REFINERIESIt's likely that some of the oil heading for storage will go to build working inventories for new plants expected to be commissioned this year. Flows in, or indeed out of, either commercial or strategic reserves are the biggest X-factor for China's crude oil imports.

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