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☆ Ned Davis Research sees the S&P 500 ending 2023 higher at 4300 after a possible rough start due to recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 should end 2023 higher than where it currently sits, according to Ned Davis Research. The result is the S & P 500 ending 2023 at 4,300 points, a gain of about 350 points, or 9.1%, from where it ended Tuesday. There are multiple paths the index – and broader economy – could take to end 2023 at that level, Clissold said. Clissold is uncertain if a March rate hike would be the start of a pause or total stop in interest rate increases. "Less clear is the path throughout the year," Clissold said, calling 2023 a "fork in the road," one way or the other.

☆ A year out from Nasdaq's peak, it's been brutal for tech stocks and the pain's not over
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"Leadership has shifted away from the tech sector and FANMAG. Two major challenges for tech names Clissold said the tech sector is facing two major challenges. Stockton said the peak in the Nasdaq last November was also the peak of its outperformance versus the S & P 500. The tech sector outperformed the S & P 500, but it was the materials sector that led the index higher, up about 19%. However, the S & P 500 has been up just 20%.

☆ Year-end rally ignited as inflation cools and rates fall, loosening their grip on stock market
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury yields fell sharply and eased their grip on the stock market Thursday, helping fuel the monster rally that broke out after a report of cooler-than-expected inflation data. The rise in yields this year has choked off stock market gains and weighed on technology and growth stocks in particular. In the futures market, traders were betting Thursday that the Fed would raise its fed funds futures rate to 4.88% before stopping next spring. But now there are signs the strong dollar may not be such a drag. ...The strong dollar has been a headwind for earnings, and it will probably become a tail wind.

☆ Analysis: As U.S. stocks rip higher, investors hunt for signs of market bottom
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The current gain – which has seen the S&P 500 bounce about 6.5% last week's fresh intraday low for 2022 – comes on the heels of several rebounds throughout the year that eventually crumbled. However, the index has not been above that level since March even as the S&P 500 continued making new lows. The put/call ratio is yet to approach a 10-day average of at least 1.2 that has historically indicated that "you are more in the ballpark of panic and fear and close to a market low," he said. The current bear market has also been less severe than many past downturns. The S&P 500 slid as much as 25.4% this year, while bear markets since 1929 have seen an average decline of 35%, according to BofA.

☆ Year-end rally hopes are starting to get dashed. What history tells us about what comes next
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors are holding their breath as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 head toward a retest of their 2022 lows this week, the final week of trading for September. By contrast, November and December are typically strong months but — with the market off so much already year to date — the chances of a year-end rally now look less likely, according to Ned Davis Research. "How quickly the economy and earnings decelerate will probably determine whether a year-end rally is possible," said Ed Clissold, Ned Davis' chief U.S. strategist. "Historically speaking, the fact that the market is down year to date makes a year-end rally less likely but not highly improbable." However, "when the S & P 500 has been down through September, it has risen only 54.8% of the time by a median of 2.3%."

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