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Wolfe Research warned investors to avoid these low-quality stocks that could blow up. Using fourth-quarter corporate results, Wolfe Research identified potentially underperforming stocks using its earnings quality score, which considers several variables including sentiment, valuation metrics and various financial ratios. From this group, Wolfe Research found the names in the bottom 10% of its earnings quality score. Wolfe Research also identified names with high short interest relative to the company's sector. Wolfe also found the company has the lowest earnings quality score of all energy stocks tracked at just 2.
Despite the banking crisis, the S & P 500 is actually higher than it was the day before Silicon Valley Bank's troubles dragged the banking sector down. Crisis causes Fed to 'grip the wheel' The bank crisis is also seemingly affecting the Federal Reserve 's policy of raising interest rates, experts said. Yet on Wednesday, the Fed announced a 25 percentage point increase , while expressing caution about the banking crisis. "The banking crisis basically caused the Fed to grip the wheel with two hands and take a more cautious approach to its rate tightening policy," Stovall said. "Other areas of the economy, including larger companies who may maintain access to bank credit and public markets (and perhaps consumer relative to commercial borrowers) might then escape with less negative impacts," he said.
As the market tumbles and recession risks rise, it's time to start playing defense and buying stocks that are poised to outperform in the later innings of the U.S. market cycle, according to Wolfe Research. Bond yields have fallen, oil prices have steeply dropped and stock market volatility has surged. With that in mind, here are 10 of the stocks that Wolfe Research believes outperform the rest of the market during a recession. It has an estimated 2023 P/E of 24.7x and an EV/2023 estimated EBITDA of 16.4x. The drugmaker has an estimated 2023 P/E of 37.2x and an EV/2023 estimated EBITDA of 28.7x.
Concerns of an impending recession have become paramount in corporate America after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in a bid to cool inflation. Given this environment, Senyek screened for stocks that could be most vulnerable as interest rates rise and the economy slows. Norwegian Cruise Line also made the list, but for its estimated floating debt rate. TransUnion also raised a red flag for its 98% estimated floating debt rate. Despite the floating debt rate and lackluster earnings forecast, others are still optimistic about the credit reporting agency.
Consumer spending is likely to turn negative following "a series of rolling recessions," and there are several vulnerable stocks that investors may want to steer clear of in the months ahead, according to Wolfe Research. Most of them have highly volatile gross margins, leaving them vulnerable to disappointing consumer spending. It's followed in volatility by Peloton , with gross margin volatility of 31%. Its gross margin volatility is 13%. DraftKings and Las Vegas Sands are also near the top in terms of gross margin volatility, at 26% and 25%, respectively.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's at least a 20 percent downside for stocks from here, says Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the markets and trading day.
Investors hoping that the 2022 bear market will subside next year are likely to be disappointed, according to Wolfe Research's outlook for 2023. The firm sees the slump in stocks continuing, and even falling further from trading prevailing prices. "The current bear market isn't over – we expect another 25% to 35% drawdown from current levels," analyst Chris Senyek wrote in a note Tuesday. Bear market signals There are multiple reasons that Senyek sees stocks falling further next year instead of rebounding into a new bull market. Wolfe's checklist Of the 10 items on Wolfe's "market bottom" checklist, none have definitively turned positive.
Watch CNBC's full interview with Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek
  + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Senyek's thoughts on recent market performance, the next trigger for a lower market trajectory and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe would be selling any rally here — it's not a change in trend, says Wolfe Research's SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss his thoughts on recent market performance, the next trigger for a lower market trajectory and more.
Data analyzed by Bespoke Investment Group shows that stocks' current bear market may need to take another leg lower before rebounding. That spells bad news for investors hoping the current bear market has hit a bottom, as the general rule of thumb is the final six months of a bear market before a bounce should be particularly painful. "When it comes to investing during a bear market, you'll often hear the advice that investors should wait on the sidelines until the market shows signs of meaningful stabilization," the firm said. The S & P 500 closed within 5% of the true low a median of 10 times during previous bear markets. In just the six months before Oct. 12, the S & P 500 closed within 5% on 20 trading days.
PepsiCo continued its winning streak by reporting third-quarter results before the bell Wednesday that beat expectations. CVS Health doesn't report its third-quarter results until Nov. 2, but in its second-quarter report , the company increased its earnings outlook for 2022. In the second quarter, the company earned $2.40 per share, adjusted, beating a Refinitiv forecast of $2.17 per share. Rising oil prices helped Chevron , which reported record profits during the second quarter of 2022. Earnings came in at $11.62 billion during the three-month period, up from $3.08 billion during the second quarter of 2021.
The S & P 500 is about 70 points below where it was at the close of the last Federal Reserve meeting on July 27. The last several Fed meetings have seen the S & P close up on the announcement day, but there's no pattern after that. After the May 4 meeting, the S & P dropped three days in a row, and after the March 16 meeting, a rally continued for several days. Corporate bond funds are also at new lows, including the Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCSH) and the iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) . Remarkably, there have not been outflows from these funds, likely because they have strong institutional support and broad bond funds like these tend to be "sticky."
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