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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndian rice export ban has an 'unintended side effect,' economist saysFrederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, discusses the ban's impact on regional markets such as Malaysia and the Philippines.
Persons: Frederic Neumann Organizations: HSBC Locations: Asia, Malaysia, Philippines
China boosts liquidity with medium-term policy tool
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, is pictured in Beijing, China, February 3, 2020. All 33 market watchers polled by Reuters this week predicted no change to the MLF rate. With 400 billion yuan worth of MLF loans set to expire this month, the operation resulted in a net 191 billion yuan of fresh fund injections into the banking system. It lent another 34 billion yuan via 14-day reverse repos at 1.95%, down from 2.15% previously. The rate reduction was a follow-up move to the rate cut to the seven-day tenor last month.
Persons: Jason Lee, Ken Cheung, Cheung, Marco Sun, Sun, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Tom Hogue, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Mizuho Bank, MUFG Bank, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, United States
China's trade slump narrows as stabilisation signs emerge
  + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Joe Cash | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
“The trade data is marginally better, but I don’t think we should be reading too much into that: trade is still contracting,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “There is a bit of a sign here of stabilisation, but I think there’s still a long way to go,” he added. “Looking ahead, whether China’s trade growth has already hit the bottom will hinge on several factors, the most important of which is obviously domestic demand.”Governments around the world are nervous about China’s economic slowdown with many exporting nations highly dependent on the country’s market for growth. However, trade with Japan dropped sharply, with outbound shipments from China to its neighbour down 20% in August year-on-year, while imports worsened by 17%. China posted a trade surplus of $68.36 billion in August, compared with a forecast $73.80 billion and a July figure of $80.6 billion.
Persons: Aly, , Frederic Neumann, Zhou Hao, it’s, Nie Wen Organizations: REUTERS, HSBC, Guotai, , Australian, Hwabao Trust Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, China, Asia, Beijing, United States, Southeast Asia, Australia, Japan, Tokyo, Brazil
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs thinks that there are better investing opportunities than ChinaTimothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, says Japan and South Korea are better investment opportunities compared to China, noting corporate reforms in Japan and projections for strong earnings from South Korean companies next year.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, China Timothy Moe Organizations: South Locations: China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, South Korea
China to cut banks' FX reserve ratio to rein in yuan weakness
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, is pictured in Beijing, China, February 3, 2020. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it would cut the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 200 basis points (bps) to 4% from 6% beginning Sept. 15, according to an online statement. That would effectively free up $16.4 billion worth of foreign exchange with China's FX deposits standing at $821.8 billion at end-July. The PBOC said its move was to "improve financial institutions' ability to use foreign exchange funds". Cheung added that Friday's announcement reinforced the central bank's stance to defend a weakening yuan but was "unlikely to reverse the bearish picture of the yuan."
Persons: Jason Lee, Ken Cheung, Cheung, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Christian Schmollinger, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, United States
However, in a hopeful sign for growth, conditions did not materially worsen even though the survey showed factories under persistent pressure. China's major manufacturing rivals in the region Japan and South Korea also reported sharp declines in output on Thursday. "It's too early to tell, but today's print suggests that a sequential uptick in growth activity in the third quarter could still be possible," said Louise Loo, senior economist with Oxford Economics. Policymakers remain under pressure to boost domestic demand as the global economy continues to slow. Going forward, "the actual implementation and effectiveness of policy support will be the key indicator to watch," he added.
Persons: It's, Louise Loo, Pan Gongsheng, Frederic Neumann, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Joe Cash, Qiaoyi Li, Ellen Zhang, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Oxford Economics, Reuters, People's Bank of, Global Research Asia, HSBC, Jones, Thomson Locations: Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China, Rights BEIJING, Japan, South Korea, People's Bank of China, United States, Europe, Asia
Hong Kong CNN —China has made a series of moves to restore investor confidence in the world’s second largest economy, including cutting a tax on stock trading for the first time since 2008. Foreign investors dumped billions of dollars worth of Chinese stocks over the past few weeks as the prospects for the economy dimmed. The announcements boosted Chinese stocks on Monday. Separately on Sunday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) the country’s top securities watchdog, also unveiled several measures to “boost investor confidence” in the sagging stock market. Chinese stock markets have declined sharply in recent weeks, as investors fretted about a worsening slowdown in the world’s second largest economy and its real estate crisis.
Persons: , Chris Liu, ” Liu, Ken Cheung, Seng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Hong Kong’s Stock Connect, China’s, Mizuho Bank, Shanghai Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, China’s Shanghai
Exclusive: China asks banks to limit some Connect bond outflows
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. "And it could also drive offshore yuan yields higher to support the renminbi." The southbound leg of the two-year-old Bond Connect scheme allows mainland institutional investors to purchase bonds traded in Hong Kong. Several measures have been aimed at raising the cost of shorting the yuan offshore. China's state-owned banks have taken steps to squeeze yuan this week by mopping up cash from the market, other sources told Reuters earlier this week.
Persons: Florence Lo, Ken Cheung, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Bond, People's Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, Reuters, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, Hong Kong, China, outflows, Beijing
China's economy is at risk of falling into a debt-deflation loop, according to Morgan Stanley. That's a scenario where prices fall, debt rises, while economic growth stagnates. But policymakers could avoid that future if they keep interest rates below a key level. "China's policymakers will need to act forcefully. That trifecta of obstacles means it could be possible that China's economy could do even worse than Japan did in the 90s, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Chetan Ahya, Ahya, Paul Krugman Organizations: Service, Bank of Japan Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Asia, Japan
China surprises with modest rate cut amid growing yuan risks
  + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.45% from 3.55% previously, while the five-year LPR was left at 4.20%. The 10 bp cut in the one-year rate was smaller than the 15 bp cut expected by most poll respondents. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. The reduction in the one-year LPR came after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly lowered its medium-term policy rate last week. Cheung added that the unexpected rate outcome should be "negative to China growth outlook and the yuan exchange rate".
Persons: Tingshu Wang, LPR, Masayuki Kichikawa, Ken Cheung, Cheung, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Kevin Buckland, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Shanghai
Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312%, testing October's 4.338%, a break past which would be its highest since 2007. "What's interesting is usually when you have volatility around rates that's the market trying to price in a higher fed funds rate. "The impact of higher yields is standard: a dollar that is well supported and equities under pressure," he added. MSCI's world index (.MIWD00000PUS) was down 0.1% on Thursday, having dropped to its lowest level since July 6 early in the session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid to its lowest since late November in early trading Thursday.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samy Chaar, der Linde, Van der Linde, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Lombard, Atlanta Federal, Nasdaq, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, HSBC, Reuters Global Markets, Finance, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SINGAPORE, CHINA, China's, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, London, Bengaluru
Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File PhotoSHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, Aug 15 (Reuters) - China's central bank unexpectedly cut key policy rates for the second time in three months on Tuesday, in a fresh sign that the authorities are ramping up monetary easing efforts to boost a sputtering economic recovery. Analysts said the move opened the door to a potential cut in China's lending benchmark loan prime rate (LPR) next week. In a Reuters poll of 26 market watchers conducted this week, 20 participants, or 77%, predicted that the central bank would leave the MLF rate unchanged. The PBOC lowered key policy rates in June to prop up the broad economy, but data has been increasingly weak since.
Persons: Tingshu Wang, Tommy Wu, Ken Cheung, Winni Zhou, Rae Wee, Kim Coghill, Jamie Freed Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, United States
A citizen walks past the Hangzhou Central branch of the People's Bank of China in Hangzhou, east China's Zhejiang province, June 13, 2023. China's central bank unexpectedly cut key policy rates for the second time in three months on Tuesday, in a fresh sign that the authorities are ramping up monetary easing efforts to boost a sputtering economic recovery. Analysts said the move opened the door to a potential cut in China's lending benchmark loan prime rate (LPR) next week. In a Reuters poll of 26 market watchers conducted this week, 20 participants, or 77%, predicted that the central bank would leave the MLF rate unchanged. The PBOC lowered key policy rates in June to prop up the broad economy, but data has been increasingly weak since.
Persons: Tommy Wu, Ken Cheung Organizations: People's Bank of China, Mizuho Bank Locations: Hangzhou Central, Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China's, China, United States
In Asia, the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged 0.2% higher, following a 1.2% tumble a day earlier. Producer prices fell for a 10th consecutive month. "It is not likely to see China entering a full deflation path as core CPI is still resilient and driven by services." "Having said that, if we do not see further improvement in consumer sentiment, it is possible to see growing deflation risks in China." Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $86.00 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell 0.2% to $82.73.
Persons: Issei Kato, Gary Ng, HSI, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Dow, Stella Qiu, Ellen Zhang, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, PPI, Asia Pacific, Reuters, Wall, U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, SYDNEY, Italy, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Brazil, Beijing
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged 0.4% higher after a 1.2% tumble a day earlier. Closely watched China data on Wednesday showed consumer prices fell 0.3% in July from a year ago, the first decline since February 2021, although it was slightly better than the forecast of a 0.4% drop. Producer prices fell for a 10th consecutive month. 10-year yields slipped 2 basis points to 4.004%, after falling 5 basis points overnight to as low as 3.9840%, a one-week trough. Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $86.02 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell 0.2% to $82.73.
Persons: Issei Kato, Carol Kong, Kong, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Dow, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Japan's Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Wall, Nasdaq, U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, SYDNEY, Italy, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Brazil
Hong Kong CNN —China’s exports suffered their biggest drop in more than three years in July as global demand slowed, adding further pressure on Beijing to find ways to reinvigorate the world’s second largest economy. For the first seven months of the year, China’s exports decreased 5% from a year earlier. But since last October, those shipments have shrunk as surging inflation and rising interest rates dampen global demand. Weakening exports deal a fresh blow to the Chinese economy, which lost momentum recently after a strong start to the year. The weak trade figures and lower yuan fixing triggered a drop in the Chinese currency in foreign exchange markets.
Persons: , Justin Sullivan, Ken Cheung Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Capital Economics, Port, Getty, Exports, Analysts, People’s Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, United States, Port of Oakland, Oakland , California, China
One source said regulators were emphatic banks should hold off dollar purchases under their proprietary trading accounts due to the "recent yuan depreciation". "The yuan exchange rate expectations are stable, and the foreign exchange market has the foundation to meet authentic and compliant FX needs," SAFE said in response to a Reuters query. Keeping non-urgent dollar demand at bay could relieve some of the immediate pressure on the yuan, the sources said. But that excitement soon faded, as domestic and foreign investors said they would wait for substantive action before putting more money into China. There was also a seasonal factor too, as overseas-listed Chinese companies usually need more foreign exchange in the summer to pay dividends to shareholders.
Persons: China's, Ken Cheung, Alvin Tan, Tan, Goldman Sachs, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: U.S ., People's Bank of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Reuters, Mizuho Bank, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Goldman, Overseas, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, Hong Kong, Asia, China, Shanghai, Beijing
Hong Kong CNN —China has a new central bank governor. He replaced Yi Gang, who took office in March 2018, when China’s longest-serving central banker Zhou Xiaochuan stepped down after a 15-year tenure. He was previously a deputy governor of the PBOC and has served as head of China’s foreign exchange regulator since 2016, managing currency reserves worth $3.18 trillion. In China’s political system, the Communist Party boss is usually the top official in the relevant organization, be it a level of government or a public institution. In March, Beijing created a powerful financial watchdog run by the Communist Party, named the Central Financial Commission, as part of a broad reform of governing bodies to strengthen the party’s oversight of economic affairs.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, Yi Gang, Zhou Xiaochuan, Xi Jinping, Xi, , Ken Cheung, Zhou Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Communist Party, Renmin University of China, Cambridge University, Harvard University, Xinhua, Mizuho Bank, Central Financial Commission, Financial Regulatory Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing
Aussie surges after strong jobs data; China's yuan jumps
  + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"Ultimately, it's another strong set of employment figures which keeps the pressure on a data-dependant (Reserve Bank of Australia) to potentially hike rates in August." The offshore yuan last bought 7.1901 per dollar, while the onshore yuan strengthened past 7.18 per dollar to a session-high of 7.1620. RATES OUTLOOKIn the broader currency market, sterling was nursing deep losses after a sharp fall in the previous session following Britain's inflation data, which undershot market expectations. "The market I think is a bit more reasonable now with its expectations for rate hikes by the BoE. "We thought (the fall) was too strong, so it looks like the dollar has regained some of those losses," said CBA's Capurso.
Persons: David Gray, Matt Simpson, it's, Ken Cheung, BoE, Joseph Capurso, Yannis Stournaras, CBA's Capurso, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Australian, New Zealand, Bank of Australia, prudential, U.S ., People's Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Bank of England, Traders, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Central Bank, U.S, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, SINGAPORE, China, Asia
We're positive on China's internet stocks, JPMorgan says
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're positive on China's internet stocks, JPMorgan saysWendy Liu, JPMorgan's chief Asia and China equity strategist, says digitalization and artificial intelligence development will give companies a "huge edge."
Persons: Wendy Liu Organizations: JPMorgan Locations: Asia, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley explains what's behind its downgrading of its China GDP forecastChetan Ahya, chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley, discusses the three areas of policy support it expects will come from the Chinese government.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, what's, Chetan Ahya Locations: China, Asia
"Consumers are not spending, mainly driven by the bleak outlook for the property market. Disappointing retail numbers and property market sales show it doesn't seem that the boost from rate cuts is sufficient. ..the property market is beginning another slowdown - the government will have to come up with more stimulus for property." "Nonetheless, we think more stimulus is required to stabilise and restore confidence in the property market." ZHIWEI ZHANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PINPOINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG"Nominal GDP growth turns out to be lower than real GDP growth in Q2, the first time since comparable data are available in Q4 2016.
Persons: CHRISTOPHER WONG, LOUIS KUIJS, CAROL KONG, XING ZHAOPENG, KEN CHEUNG, ALVIN TAN, VISHNU VARATHAN, MARCO SUN, CHEN, TONY SYCAMORE, ZHIWEI ZHANG, JING LIU Organizations: Gross, National Bureau, Statistics, Shanghai, NBS, BANK OF, ANZ, MIZUHO BANK, OF, OF ASIA FX, RBC, MUFG BANK, IG, SYDNEY, Friday's, BANK OF SINGAPORE, HSBC, stoke, Authorities, Reuters, U.S, Thomson Locations: U.S, SINGAPORE, ASIA, HONG KONG, SYDNEY, CHINA, SHANGHAI, OF ASIA, China
The People's Bank of China, which typically issues guidance on dollar deposit rates to state banks, did not immediately comment on the matter. The lenders - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SS), , Bank of China (601988.SS), , Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SS), , China Construction Bank (601939.SS), and Bank of Communications (601328.SS), - did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The lower rates could both discourage households from putting savings into higher-yielding dollar deposits and nudge Chinese firms, especially exporters, to settle foreign exchange receipts in yuan. The latest cut in dollar deposit rates was the second in barely a month. Some currency traders also said the cuts in dollar deposit rates would ease pressure on commercial lenders' net interest margin, as banks' dollar deposit rates had risen above lending rates before the recent adjustments.
Persons: Ken Cheung, Banks, PBOC, Winni Zhou, Samuel Shen, Jindong Zhang, Rong Ma, Ryan Woo, John Geddie, Edmund Klamann Organizations: People's Bank of China, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, Traders, U.S, Mizuho Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, China, United States, China's, Shanghai, Beijing, Tokyo
China cuts loan prime rate as economic recovery fizzles out
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
The rate cuts come as Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, slash their forecasts for China’s economy. The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%. This is the first time the PBOC has cut both LPR rates since August 2022, when renewed Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn were pummeling the economy. “The 10 bps rate cut[s] are unlikely to stimulate business confidence and housing demand,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks slid after Tuesday’s rate cuts.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Covid, , Ken Cheung, , ” Goldman Sachs, Fu Linghui Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, Shanghai, National Bureau, Statistics, NBS Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing
Citing reasons for his optimism, he said Asia is expected to deliver healthier growth rates while the West lags behind. Asia inflation 'not as intense'"We're definitely expecting growth in these two economies to be constrained by the fact that they have had this significant inflation problem," Ahya said in reference to the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. inflation rate has been holding well above the Fed's 2% annual target. Chetan Ahya Chief Asia Economist at Morgan StanleyChina's consumption 'on track'Another driver of Asia's growth is China's projected recovery in the second half of the year. "We're expecting China's recovery to broaden out in second half of this year," Ahya said.
Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi, Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, Ahya, We're Organizations: Mount Fuji, Afp, Getty, Federal Reserve, Asia, Nurphoto, People's Bank of China Locations: U.S, Europe, Asia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Central, China, Jakarta
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