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☆ The one big fear that could upend the bull market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A chain reaction sparked by continued inflation could put the bull market to rest, according to Trivariate Research. As the bull market enters its third year, investors are wondering how much more room there is to run before a pullback is due. Now, Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 95% likelihood of another drop to the borrowing costs at the central bank's November gathering, according to CME's FedWatch tool. In 2021 and 2022, Parker said there was a "strong and statistically significant relationship" between Fed funds futures and the price-to-earnings multiple on growth stocks. Though that connection now looks different, the Morgan Stanley alum said he would be "surprised if multiples did not compress meaningfully" if the expectation for the Fed funds rate rises from 3.5% to 5% or above.

Persons: Adam Parker, Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Parker, Morgan Stanley, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Tudor Jones, Dow Jones Organizations: Research, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Dow

☆ Russia's central bank hikes interest rate to 21% to fight stubborn inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( Nathan Rennolds | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 21% on Friday. Inflation in Russia hit 8.6% year-on-year in September, well above the central bank's 4% target. It has largely been driven by heavy defense spending amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. AdvertisementRussia's central bank raised its key interest rate to a record high on Friday as inflationary pressure continues in the country. The Bank of Russia raised the benchmark rate by 200 basis points to 21%, saying inflation was "running considerably above" its July forecast.

Persons: —, Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko Organizations: Service, Bank of Russia, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Financial Times Locations: Russian, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Europe

☆ Dollar stands tall on bets for slower Fed cuts, potential Trump win
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. This week, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he would prefer to "avoid outsized moves", and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker backed "a slow, methodical approach" to further easing. The dollar has now "punched through key technical resistance levels" against the yen, "opening the door for higher levels", Catril said. Although opinion polls indicate a neck-and-neck race with Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, cryptocurrency-prediction exchange Polymarket has seen a sharp rise in bets for a Trump win.

Persons: Donald Trump, Jeffrey Schmid, Patrick Harker, Rodrigo Catril, Catril, Trump, Kamala Harris, Christine Lagarde, Mario Centeno Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Kansas, Philadelphia Fed, Treasury, National Australia Bank, UST, Republican, Democratic, Trump, of, Traders, European Central Bank, Wednesday Locations: Japan, Sunday's

☆ Rate cuts isn't really a situation where ECB needs to rush, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRate cuts isn't really a situation where ECB needs to rush, strategist saysGuillaume Menuet, EMEA head of investment strategy and economics at Citi Wealth, weighs in on the European Central Bank's future path for interest rates.

Persons: Guillaume Menuet Organizations: Citi Wealth, Central

Mārtiņš Kazāks, governor of the Bank of Latvia and a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, on Thursday weighed in on the possibility of a jumbo half-point interest rate cut for December. When asked for his views on a 50-basis rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting, he said that "everything should be on the table." "But we will have that discussion in December," he told CNBC's Karen Tso at the IMF's annual meetings in Washington, D.C. Thursday. His comments come after the ECB delivered a back-to-back interest rate cut for the first time in 13 years at its October meeting. It also comes a day after Portuguese central bank chief Mario Centeno made similar comments.

Persons: Mārtiņš Kazāks, CNBC's Karen Tso, —, Mario Centeno, Centeno Organizations: Bank of, European Central Bank's Governing, ECB, CNBC Locations: Bank of Latvia, Washington ,, Portuguese

☆ Here's why Goldman Sachs' gloomy 10-year stock market forecast is no reason panic
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The first line of the note reads: "We estimate the S & P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal total return of 3% during the next 10 years." For starters, nobody knows what the coming decade has in store for the S & P 500. Valuation: Yes, the S & P 500 is currently trading at a historically high multiple. Going out on a limb and making market calls or calls about individual stocks is not for the faint of heart. The S & P 500 has more than doubled since then, advancing about 135%, which amounts to that roughly 13% annual return that Kostin mentioned in his note.

Persons: David Kostin, Kostin, Goldman, it's, Jim Cramer, Stanley Black, Decker, That's, Jim, It's, Goldman Sachs, we're, Jim Cramer's, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Goldman, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S, Equity, Treasury, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, U.S, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Goldman Sachs, U.S, Wells

☆ Economists see UK cutting interest rates more substantially as inflation pressures ease
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesLONDON — The U.K. is likely to see interest rates drop at a faster pace than previously expected, according to economists who flagged key data releases that indicated inflationary pressures are finally easing. However, economists at Goldman Sachs in a Monday note forecast rate cuts "notably below market pricing." As a result, they see consecutive 25 basis point cuts taking the Bank Rate to 3% as early as September 2025, and to 2.75% in November next year. "Recent data have cemented expectations of another cut in interest rates in November. "That said, uncertainty around the economic outlook is high, and interest rate expectations will be sensitive to what the government announces in the Budget," Muir added.

Persons: Mike Kemp, Goldman Sachs, BOE, Price, —, James Smith, Smith, David Muir, Muir, Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves Organizations: of England, Labour, Bank of England's, BOE policymakers, Bank of England, ING . Services, Reuters, International Energy Agency, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Moody's, Finance Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom

☆ Bitcoin at 3-month high as Trump odds drive currencies
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Cryptocurrency bitcoin hit a three-month high in early Asia trading on Monday and the dollar looked set to extend its gains in markets counting down to the U.S. presidential election in two weeks. Bitcoin got a lift from Trump's improving prospects since his administration is seen as taking a softer line on cryptocurrency regulation. The clearest way to express the Trump tariff risk was to be long dollars versus the euro, Swiss franc and Mexican peso , he said. Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, also noted that rising real interest rates were helping the dollar along, particularly against those three currencies. "We expect this trend to continue straight into the election and if Trump wins, likely well after the election as well," Bechtel wrote.

Persons: Cryptocurrency bitcoin, Donald Trump, Bitcoin, Chris Weston, Pepperstone, Weston, Brad Bechtel, Bechtel Organizations: U.S, Trump, China, BTC, Swiss, FX, Jefferies Locations: Asia, U.S

☆ Here's why inflation may look like it's easing but is still a huge problem
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Inflation is not deadDaly began her talk with an anecdote of a recent encounter she had while walking near her home. But the conversation encapsulated a dilemma for the Fed: If inflation is on the run, why are interest rates still so high? As evidenced by the young man's question, convincing people that inflation is easing is a tough sell. watch nowThe annual rate of CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, a vast improvement over the 9.1% top in June 2022. However, year-over-year spending increased just 1.7%, below the 2.4% CPI inflation rate.

Persons: Brandon Bell, Goldman Sachs, Mary Daly, Daly, Goldman, Jerome Powell, —, hasn't, haven't Organizations: Walmart, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, New York University Stern School of Business, Commerce Department, Fed, York Fed, Bank of America, National Federation of Independent Business Locations: Austin , Texas, U.S, , Wyoming, Atlanta, York

☆ China just triggered more stimulus measures, even as it says its economy is showing 'stable growth'
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The People's Bank of China triggered two market support programs after China announced economic data. China's economy grew 4.6% in the third quarter of this year, the country's statistics bureau announced as it touted a "stable growth trend." "The property market unsurprisingly remains the biggest drag on China's growth," wrote Song, adding that stabilization in the real estate market remains "elusive." China's economy is being dragged by factors including a property crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation. He added that he expects Beijing to continue to do more to support growth so the economy can enter 2025 on better footing.

Persons: —, Sheng Laiyun, China's, Lynn Song, Betty Wang, Larry Hu, Rajiv Biswas, who's, Wang Organizations: People's Bank of China, Service, Reuters, Greater China, ING, Oxford Economics, People's Bank of, Macquarie Group Locations: China, Greater, People's Bank of China, Beijing

☆ European markets set for mixed open as investors digest third ECB rate cut of the year
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets were headed for a mixed open on Friday as investors digested the European Central Bank's decision to cut interest rates yet again and awaited fresh economic data and earnings. Germany's DAX , the U.K.'s FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 are all expected to slip when markets open, according to IG data, while Italy's FTSE MIB is on track to rise. The pan-European Stoxx 600 ended Thursday in the green, with almost all sectors and regional bourses trading in positive territory. It came as the ECB announced its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering the deposit rate by another 25 basis points, as inflation risks in the European Union ease faster than anticipated. On Friday, investors will be watching the latest U.K. retail sales data and quarterly earnings from Volvo Group.

Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: Central, CAC, ECB, Volvo Group, Dow Jones Locations: European Union, Asia, Pacific, China, Hong Kong

☆ European Central Bank meets with third rate cut of the year expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), left, and Wolfgang Proissl, director of general communications at the European Central Bank (ECB), at a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024. The European Central Bank is widely expected to announce its third interest rate cut of the year at its Thursday meeting, after policymakers flagged reduced inflation risks and a weakening growth outlook. Headline price rises in the euro area eased to 1.8% in September, coming in below the central bank's 2% target for the first time in three years. A cut on Thursday would see the ECB reducing rates at consecutive meetings for the first time in 13 years. Expectations for a faster pace of monetary easing have built since the ECB's Sept. 12 meeting, when market pricing suggested just one more rate cut this year, rather than the two priced in as of Thursday morning.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Wolfgang Proissl Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

☆ BofA Securities discusses the Thai central bank's unexpected interest rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA Securities discusses the Thai central bank's unexpected interest rate cutKai Wei Ang, Asia and ASEAN economist at BofA Securities, says the Bank of Thailand 'might stay on pause' with regard to interest rates in the coming months.

Persons: Kai Wei Ang Organizations: BofA Securities, Bank of Locations: Asia, ASEAN, Bank of Thailand

☆ Jim Cramer says investors too worried about the Fed's next move are missing opportunities
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Thursday said some investors are missing market opportunities because they are too focused on what the Federal Reserve will do next when it comes to interest rates. "I'm not saying the stock market will never go down when the Fed's easing," he said. But Blackstone reported an impressive quarter, and the stock reached a new all-time high, up more than 6% by the close. He also referenced the turbulence this week in the semiconductor space — triggered by a bad quarter from Dutch chipmaker ASML on Tuesday — saying investors' Fed worries may have scared them out of expensive stocks. "Everyone who's obsessed with the Fed's next foray is basically investing with blinders on, and as a result, they're missing out on some of the greatest moves I've ever seen in my life," Cramer said.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, I'm, Jay Powell, Blackstone, ASML, Jensen, they're, I've, Cramer Organizations: Federal Reserve, Blackstone, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor

☆ ECB will cut rates in October but not to commit to a forward path: economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB will cut rates in October but not commit to a forward path, Goldman economist saysJari Stehn, chief Europe economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the European Central Bank's October meeting and the growth outlook for the euro area.

Persons: Goldman, Jari Stehn, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Central Locations: Europe

☆ Weaker euro zone growth outlook has led ECB to October rate cut, CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWeaker euro zone growth outlook has led ECB to October rate cut, CIO saysIain Stealey, international chief investment officer of global fixed income currency and commodities at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, comments on what to watch for in the European Central Bank's October communications.

Persons: Iain Stealey Organizations: ECB, Morgan Asset Management, Central

Here's a rapid-fire update on all the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, the portfolio we use for the CNBC Investing Club. Broadcom: Of course, we love the company's AI business — both its custom silicon solutions for companies such as Alphabet and its networking chips that help stitch data centers together. Stanley Black & Decker: Jim said that this stock is the "most significant beneficiary" from lower rates in the entire portfolio. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim, there's, Lisa Su, Wells, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, it's, we've, Walt Disney, —, Eaton, we're, Kamala Harris, Harris, Jim's, Linde, Eli Lilly, Lilly isn't, That's, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, D.A, Satya Nadella's, Palo, cybersecurity, Brian Niccol, We're, Stanley Black, Decker, TJX, Charlie Scharf, Wells Fargo's, Jim Cramer, Angela Weiss Organizations: Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, CNBC, Club, Apple Intelligence, Abbott Laboratories, Devices, AMD, Nvidia, Broadcom, Apple, Federal Reserve, Costco Wholesale, Costco, Coterra, DuPont, Disney, ESPN, GE Healthcare, Democratic, Biden, Honeywell, Linde, Adobe, Microsoft, Davidson, Palo Alto Networks, Constellation Brands, Modelo, Corona, TJX, Jim Cramer's Charitable, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty Locations: Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Dover, Eaton, China, U.S, Chipotle, New York City

☆ European Central Bank set for third interest rate cut of the year in meeting this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

European flags flutter in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) building prior to a news conference following the meeting of the governing council of the ECB in Frankfurt/Main, Germany, on September 12, 2024. Daniel Roland | Afp | Getty ImagesThe European Central Bank is on course to deliver its third interest rate cut of the year at its meeting this Thursday, as policymakers say inflation risks are easing faster than previously expected. Headline price rises in the euro area cooled to 1.8% in September, below the central bank's 2% target. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau last week described an October rate cut as "very likely" and said such a step "won't be the last." This led him to forecast ECB rate cuts will take place both this week and at each of the central bank's forthcoming meetings, until the deposit rate hits 2.5%.

Persons: Daniel Roland, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Villeroy, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Jack Allen Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Afp, Getty, Bank of France, France, European Union, Citi, Media, U.S, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Capital Economics, Reynolds, Bank of America Global Research Locations: Frankfurt, Main, Germany, U.S .

☆ 5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Investors need to be wary as sticky inflation remains a risk, Deutsche Bank says. But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday. "If inflation does return, this could have very important implications for markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. While that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said. The firm cited the fact that in August, US M2 money supply rose 2.0% year-over-year, the highest growth rate since September 2022.

Persons: —, Brent, Deutsche Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Federal Reserve, Deutsche, Atlanta Locations: China, Israel, Iran, Iranian

☆ Asia markets open mostly higher after declines on Wall Street; BOK rate decision in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Anniek Bao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Signage for Bank of Korea is displayed atop the central bank's headquarters building in Seoul, South Korea, on Thursday, Aug. 16, 2018. SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets opened mostly higher Friday, breaking ranks with Wall Street that saw key benchmarks slide as investors digested a sticky U.S. inflation report. Investors in Asia are also focused on policy decisions from the Bank of Korea on Friday. South Korea's central bank is expected to deliver its first rate cut since March 2022, according to a Reuters poll, bringing down its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%. The highly anticipated briefing session is expected to unveil fresh fiscal stimulus package as Beijing attempts to boost its economy.

Organizations: Bank of, Investors, Bank of Korea, China's Ministry of Finance Locations: Bank of Korea, Seoul, South Korea, South Korea's, SINGAPORE — Asia, Pacific, Asia, Korea's, Beijing

☆ The Federal Reserve may have pretty much just hit its 2% inflation target
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to a news conference following the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on September 18, 2024 in Washington, DC. This week's inflation data provided more evidence that the Federal Reserve is nearing its objective, fresh on the heels of the central bank's dramatic interest rate cut just a few weeks ago. Consumer and producer price indexes for September both came in around expectations, showing that inflation is drifting down to the central bank's 2% target. The Wall Street investment bank on Friday projected that the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index for September will show a 12-month inflation rate of 2.04% when it is released later this month. The Fed prefers the PCE as its inflation gauge though it uses a variety of inputs to make decisions.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Washington , DC, Commerce, Fed, PCE, Chicago Fed, CNBC Locations: Washington ,

☆ Dollar hovers near two-month peak as Fed easing bets ebb before inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar traded near a two-month peak against major peers on Thursday as markets grew more confident about a patient approach from the Federal Reserve to further monetary easing, even as a key inflation report loomed later in the day. The U.S. dollar traded near a two-month peak against major peers on Thursday as markets grew more confident about a patient approach from the Federal Reserve to further monetary easing, even as a key inflation report loomed later in the day. The euro languished near its lowest since Aug. 13, while against the yen, the dollar hovered close to its strongest level since Aug. 15. The dollar index was little changed at 102.86 as of 0024 GMT, sticking close to Wednesday's high of 102.93. The greenback eased 0.18% to 149.035 yen , but was not far from the overnight peak of 146.365.

Persons: Kyle Rodda, —, Rodda, Mary Daly Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Reuters, U.S, CPI, Francisco Fed, Traders, New Locations: U.S

☆ Stock market today: Indexes decline after inflation comes in hotter than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes dipped Thursday as investors took in hotter-than-expected inflation data. Traders see the latest data solidifying odds of a 25 basis point rate cut next month. AdvertisementUS stocks edged lower on Thursday as investors took in slightly hotter-than-expected inflation data after last week's blockbuster jobs report. The core CPI reading, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 3.3% year-over-year, slightly above forecasts of 3.2% and 0.3% higher than the August reading. JPMorgan's top strategist, one of Wall Street's biggest bears, is turning upbeat on the stock market for the first time in two years.

Persons: —, Milton, Bill Gross Organizations: Traders, Service, CPI, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Labor Department, FEMA, Hurricanes Locations: Here's

☆ Inflation was hotter than expected in September, but continued its downward trend
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The unexpectedly hot inflation reading complicates the prospect of further rate cuts from the Fed. This index was expected to see a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, a cooler rate than August's 2.5%. The surprisingly hot inflation reading is a sign that the economy is running strong, and complicates the Fed's next rate decision, since in theory higher inflation would make further cuts less likely. AdvertisementThat could be because the market also digested weekly jobless-claim figures that came in higher than expected. Following a surprisingly strong September jobs report, speculation rose that the Fed might slow its pace of rate cuts — or even stop them altogether.

Persons: — Organizations: Service Locations: mull

☆ Stock market today: Indexes close lower after CPI shows sticky inflation in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes slipped Thursday as investors priced in a higher-than-expected inflation reading. The data raises the possibility of a "no landing" scenario for the US economy. AdvertisementStocks fell on Thursday from records reached in the previous session, as traders took in a sticky inflation reading for September. September consumer price index data released on Thursday showed inflation rose 2.4% year-over-year, slightly above consensus forecasts of a 2.3% rise. AdvertisementThe core CPI reading, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, was up 3.3% year-over-year and just above forecasts of 3.2%.

Persons: —, Stocks, Hurricane Milton, Jamie Dimon, Buffett Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, CPI, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Investors, Labor Department, Here's, Insurance Locations: Hurricane

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