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Their rally has been responsible for all of the 8.3% year-to-date gain in the S&P 500 (.SPX) through Wednesday's close, a Deutsche Bank report showed. A recent survey of global fund managers from BofA Global Research showed that 71% believe a deal to raise the debt ceiling will be reached before the X-date. Excitement over artificial intelligence, which has boosted some megacap names this year, is another factor that could support the category. At the same time, the debt ceiling has been only one of of several worries weighing on the market. Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, expects lawmakers will reach an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through September.
But even if that’s the case, between now and then bond investors should expect volatility. Bond investors are all about pricing in the risk that they may not be paid back on debt they buy — either on time or at all. But the lack of a deal to raise lawmakers’ self-imposed debt ceiling so close to the X-date is introducing unwanted risk into each investor’s calculus. “We’ve already seen some pricing stress around short-term bills, Treasury bills, and a little bit of change in the… sovereign credit default swap spreads,” said Gary Gensler, chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, at an event on Monday. Right now, yields on one-month T bills are well above the yields for 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds.
Income-focused investors seeking yield and safety in Treasury bills are likely nervous as debt ceiling rhetoric heats up in Washington, but they should take a breather before they dump these assets. In the short-term Treasury market, investors are already showing some signs of anxiety. In that case, holders of short-term T-bills could see declines in their portfolio values as yields spike, he added. Review your holdings Now could be a good time to review your bond holdings, particularly the short-term T-bills that are seeing a big jump in yields. But the longer-term advice is to snap up longer-dated bonds to prepare for the day the Federal Reserve starts to dial back its tight monetary policy.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Hakeem Jeffries, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Kathy Jones, Gustavo Schwenkler, Jones, Thomas McLoughlin, McLoughlin, Christine Benz, Jamie Hopkins, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Santa Clara University Leavey School of Business, Federal Reserve, UBS, Morningstar, Carson Group Locations: Washington, D, U.S
Investors will look for clues on whether inflation is continuing to ease following the Labor Department's consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Shares of PayPal Holdings (PYPL.O) dropped and pressured the benchmark S&P 500 after the company cut its margin forecast. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2023. Under Armour Inc (UAA.N) fell 5.66% as the sports apparel maker forecast its annual sales and profit below street expectations. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 77 new highs and 171 new lows.
Fed's Bowman sees potential for interbank digital dollar
  + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
April 18 (Reuters) - A so-called "wholesale" central bank digital currency could hold promise for the future settlement of certain financial market transactions and processing international payments, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday. While a digital dollar could make sense for interbank transactions, there could be unintended consequences like disruptions to the banking system if the Fed were to design a central bank digital currency that would be directly available to the public, Bowman said in prepared remarks for an event at Georgetown University's Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. The U.S. central bank has not yet said if it would embark on an effort to create a central bank digital currency, and has previously said it would seek authorization from Congress and the executive branch before doing so. Reporting by Ann Saphir and Hannah Lang; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Here are six banks that should fare well in the Q1 earnings season despite the sector's challenges. A series of bank failures in early March sent shares of financial institutions plunging, and while bank stocks have stabilized in recent weeks, they haven't yet been able to mount a comeback. But when they kick off the Q1 earnings season in mid-April, banks can change the negative narrative — or reinforce existing concerns about the sector. "Banks may see higher revenue year-over-year and may surprise to the upside, beating consensus earnings estimates," Leon wrote. Below are the six bank stocks that CFRA expects to fare well in the first quarter earnings season, along with the ticker, market capitalization, and investment thesis for each.
ORLANDO, Florida, March 29 (Reuters) - U.S. money supply is falling at its fastest rate since the 1930s, a red flag for the economy and financial markets. In seasonally-adjusted terms, M2 money supply fell 2.4% from the same month last year to $21.063 trillion. Money growth started slowing in early 2021 as base effects from the fiscal and monetary splurge to tackle the coronavirus pandemic kicked in. Money supply was considered a less reliable basis for policymaking. If deposits fall, banks must reduce lending to match their assets and liabilities, so the impact on M2 money supply is less clear-cut.
Only 23% of financial planners in the US are women. But as women grow their wealth — women control about 32% of the world's wealth, according to Boston Consulting Group — financial firms are evaluating how best to serve them. "People often saw me as someone's assistant," Sandra Cho, the president and founder of Pointwealth Capital Management, told Insider. Anne Marie Stonich, the chief wealth strategist at Coldstream Wealth Management, told Insider its Women and Wealth program focuses on networking and mentoring. Kate Healy, the managing director of the CFP Board's Center for Financial Planning, told Insider that financial firms are getting savvier about creating career paths for women.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFmr. FDIC Chair Sheila Bair: U.S. regulators are setting a dangerous precedent on SVBSheila Bair, senior fellow at Center for Financial Stability and former FDIC Chair, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the FDIC's plan to assist the banking sector.
Certainly, Friday's inflation data, included in the personal income and spending report, showed a marked deceleration in so-called personal consumption expenditure inflation. Over the past five months, many measures of inflation have fallen more quickly than forecast, including those most closely watched by the Federal Reserve. It now risks doing too much and pushing the U.S. economy into an entirely unnecessary recession next year. That comes at a time when seasonal and historical patterns — like the presidential cycle — favor a positive stock market performance in 2023. First, as was the case in 2021, U.S. population growth was abysmal this year, rising only 0.4%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
A series of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve—including a 0.5 percentage point increase on Wednesday—has left its benchmark federal-funds rate rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest level seen in 15 years. “Savings rates right now are fantastic,” says Joe Duran, co-head of Goldman Sachs Workplace and Personal Wealth. “Banks want to be competitive, so when Fed rate increases happen, they are usually quick to increase savings rates,” says Duran. Where Savings and CD Rates Are Headed NextWith interest rates steadily increasing, the key question for savers becomes: Should I lock in rates now, or wait for even better offers? In fact, the average savings rate nationally is only 0.24%, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp—quite paltry considering where the Fed rate is.
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed to announce Wednesday that it will once again raise interest rates. The Fed bumped up rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in the past four meetings (June, July, September and November). The more widely watched Consumer Price Index data for November comes out Tuesday, just a day before the Fed announcement. Jones still thinks the Fed will raise rates by only half a point this week and may look to hike them just a quarter point in early 2023. It seems likely that the Fed will cut its GDP target and raise its expectations for the jobless rate and consumer prices.
November's jobs report is the big event for markets in the week ahead, and it could provide important insight into the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The labor market has cooled only slightly, as other parts of the economy have slowed. But the labor market has been more resilient than expected, challenging the Fed's efforts to tame inflation by slowing economic activity. Besides the jobs report, there is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report Wednesday, as well as the Fed's beige book on economic activity. "Holding above 4,000, as we await the jobs report and those other economic reports would be constructive for one more move before Christmas," he said.
Municipal bonds, or munis, have outperformed other bonds this year, but have still slumped. "We suggest that if you're investing in municipal bonds, individual bonds, you invest in 10 different issues with different credit risks," he said. Investing differs from stocks Muni bonds serve a different goal in a portfolio than assets such as stocks, which you hope go up in value over time. "There's typically some price appreciation with it but it's hard to bank on price appreciation unless you're a very active muni bond trader," said Tyner. Diversified muni bond mutual funds are also a good option for investors, giving access to the muni market without having to take on the risk of buying individual bonds.
Retirement-focused financial advisors can help with both the financial and non-financial preparations to do so. "I saw my clients struggling [with this issue] and I wanted to help them think about the process of aging." Sandy Adams partner with the Center for Financial PlanningWhen should people start this kind of planning? "None of us knows when that event might happen that will cause us to suddenly need help." Black, CFP and partner at Bridgeworth Financial Management in Birmingham, Alabama.
Here's what the inverted yield curve means for your portfolio
  + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Catherine Yeulet | Getty ImagesWhat the inverted yield curve meansGenerally, longer-term bonds pay more than bonds with shorter maturities. "In normal times, the yield curve slopes upwards," he said. But there's currently a downward sloping curve, also known as an "inverted yield," with the 2-year Treasury paying more than the 10-year Treasury . 'Real economic indicators are going to suffer'While a yield curve inversion is only one signal of a possible recession, it shouldn't be ignored, particularly at the lower end of the curve, experts say. "The yield curve is not perfect, but it does better in general than standard forecasts."
Stablecoins are usually pegged to the U.S. dollar and are primarily used to facilitate trading in other digital assets. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterWhile the CFTC has anti-fraud and anti-manipulation regulatory authorities over firms that issue dollar-backed stablecoins, they do not have "actual plenary authority to write rules around the exchanges," Gensler said. They currently do not have direct regulatory authorities over the underlying non-security tokens," he said. The vast majority of cryptocurrencies, including so-called algorithmic stablecoins, are securities, and fall under the SEC's authority, while a handful are not, Gensler said. It remains unclear when Congress might pass crypto-related legislation, although several bills have been introduced to address stablecoins and digital commodities regulation.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview on munis with Schwab Center's Cooper HowardCooper Howard, director and fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, joins 'The Exchange' to compare muni bonds and corporate bonds, as well as discuss the impact rate rises have on muni borrowing costs and the overall income benefits these hikes present investors.
The JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF ha s pulled in more than $3.5 billion of new money this year. AllianceBernstein launched its first ETFs last Wednesday, including the AB Ultra Short Income ETF , a fund that invests in debt with less than one year to maturity. An inverted yield curve refers to short-term yields that are higher than longer-dated yields. The combination of quickly rising interest rates and an inverted yield curve creates a couple of benefits for short-duration funds. AllianceBernstein's municipal ETF has a management fee of 0.27%, while the fee on the ultra short income fund stands at 0.25%.
23 Black leaders who are shaping history today
  + stars: | 2021-02-01 | by ( Courtney Connley | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +39 min
Following the lead of trailblazers throughout American history, today's Black history-makers are shaping not only today but tomorrow. —Cory StiegRosalind Brewer, 58, Walgreens' next CEO and only Black woman to currently lead a Fortune 500 firmWalgreens' next CEO Rosalind Brewer. When she steps into this new role, she will be the only Black woman currently leading a Fortune 500 firm, and just the third Black woman in history to serve as a Fortune 500 CEO. "When you're a Black woman, you get mistaken a lot," she said during a 2018 speech at her alma mater, Spelman College. —Tom Huddleston Jr.Jason Wright, 38, first Black president of a National Football League teamWashington Football Team president Jason Wright.
Persons: Shirley Chisholm, John Lewis, Maya Angelou, Mary Ellen Pleasant, Kamala Harris, Gene Kim, Harris, Shyamala Gopalan Harris, Shyamala, , — Cory Stieg Rosalind Brewer, Rosalind Brewer, Ursula Burns, Mary Winston, Brewer, Kimberly, Clark, she's, — Courtney Connley, Kizzmekia, Corbett, Kizzmekia Corbett, Anthony Fauci, Fauci, Dr, — Cory Stieg Victor J, Glover , Jr, Victor Glover, Amanda Gorman, Joe Biden, Gorman, Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King Jr, Lady Jill Biden, Robert Frost, Oprah, Angelou, — Jennifer Liu, Amanda Gorman's, Raphael Warnock, Georgia's, Kelly Loeffler, Warnock, Ebenezer Baptist Church —, — Abigail Johnson Hess Rashida Jones, Rashida Jones, Jones, Kristen Welker, Carole Simpson, Nicolle Wallace's, Dorothy Tucker, Brown, — Taylor Locke Sandra Lindsay, Sandra Lindsay, Lindsay, She's, I'm, Jade Scipioni Nicholas Johnson, Princeton's, Nicholas Johnson, Princeton University's, Johnson, William Massey, — Abigail Johnson Hess Cynthia, Cynt, Marshall, Cynthia Marshall, Cynt Marshall, George Floyd, Marshall —, Mark Cuban, Scipioni, Cynthia Marshall's, Dallas Mavericks Cori Bush, Missouri's, Missouri, Cori Bush, Michael Brown, Ferguson, William Lacy Clay Jr, Bush, Essence.com, I've, he's, Louis, Clay, — Jennifer Liu Alicia Boler Davis, Amazon's, Jeff Bezos Alicia Boler Davis, Alicia Boler Davis, Boler Davis, Jeff Bezos, alums, Jennifer Liu, Noah Harris, Harvard Noah Harris, Harvard's, It's, we've, Fentrice Driskell, Du Bois, — Abigail Johnson Hess, Harvard Mellody Hobson, Mellody Hobson, Ariel Investments, Hobson, — Courtney Connley Sydney Barber, Sydney Barber, Barber, Ms, Janie Mines, wasn't, Mines, Jesse Collins, Collins, Indiewire, " Collins, Jennifer Liu Nia DaCosta, Nia DaCosta, Marvel, DaCosta, Nora Ephron, Jordan Peele, Peele, — Tom Huddleston Jr, Aicha Evans, Zoox, Evans, Jason Wright, Wright, He's, Dan Snyder, — Emmie Martin Dana Canedy, Dana Canedy, Simon, Simon & Schuster, Dana Canedy's, Canedy, Denzel Washington, Alicia Adamczyk, Schuster Bozoma Saint John, Saint John, Beyonce, Kanye West, Nicki Minaj, Michael Jackson, — Courtney Connley Cheick Camara, Ermias Tadesse, Cornell University's, Cheick Camara, Ermias Organizations: CNBC, White, South, Latina, Howard University, Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority, Inc, Democrat, United States Senate, U.S, Walgreens, Fortune, Starbucks, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Xerox, Bed, Sam's, Walmart, Nonwovens, Spelman College, Moderna, National Institute of Allergy, National Urban League, FDA, Vaccine Research, University of North, Space Station, NASA, Capitol, LA, Poet, Harvard, Georgia, Black, Morehouse College cum, Ebenezer Baptist Church, United, MSNBC, University of Missouri's School of Journalism, NBC, ABC News, National Association of Black Journalists, Jewish Medical Center, Northwell, Long, Pfizer, Pew Research Center, Princeton, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, NBA Dallas Mavericks, Dallas Mavericks, NBA, Mavericks, Congress, Senate, Democratic, Green New Deal, General Motors Institute, GM, Amazon, Employees, Amazon's, Ariel Investments, Ariel, Financial Planning's Diversity, Princeton University, JPMorgan, Lucas Family Foundation, Hobson College, Naval, U.S . Naval Academy, U.S . Naval, Naval Academy, Academy, Super, Super Bowl, Jesse Collins Entertainment, ViacomCBS Cable Networks, BET, CMT, Comedy Central, MTV, Paramount Network, VH1, Marvel, Marvel Studios, Marvel Universe, Tribeca, Wall Street, George Washington University, Intel, Financial, Automotive News, National Football League, Washington Football, Washington Football Team, National Football, NFL, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals, University of Chicago, McKinsey & Company, Washington, Morning, Simon &, New York Times, Jordan, Crown Publishers, New Yorker, Netflix, Saint, Longtime, Endeavor, Uber, Apple, PepsiCo, BlackGen Capital, Cornell, BlackGen Locations: United States, Oakland , California, India, America, White, California, University of North Carolina, Chapel, Los Angeles, Georgia's, Savannah , Georgia, Ebenezer, Long, New York, Queens , New York, Jamaica, Princeton, Montreal, Canada, Spring, Missouri, Louis, St, Detroit, Hattiesburg , Mississippi, Florida, Chicago, U.S, Lake Forest , Illinois, Sydney, mull, Senegal, Zoox, Charlottesville , VA
Total: 20