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☆ The West can't completely isolate Russian banks because it would be disastrous beyond Russia
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's one major thing the West could, but won't, do: kill all Russian banks' access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, or SWIFT. 'Russia's economy is in deep, deep trouble'Despite the West's frustration with how Russia's economy still appears to be holding up, the sanctions appear to be finally working. "In five years, you're going see a really disastrous slowdown in the Russian economy," said Portes, who called for stronger sanctions enforcement. AdvertisementIn April 2022, Russia's central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina warned Russia's reserves can't last forever. "A significant problem is that they are running out of foreign exchange reserves, and you can't create foreign reserves," Portes added.

Persons: —, hasn't, SWIFT, Alex Capri, Richard Portes, Portes, Alexander Kolyandr, Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's Organizations: Service, West, Society, Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, Business, SWIFT, European Union, National University of Singapore, US Customs Service, London Business School, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Central Bank of Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Russian, SWIFT, Capri, Asia Pacific, Europe, India, China, Central Bank of Russia, Russia's

☆ Modi's strongman rule raises questions about India's 'democratic decline' as he seeks a third term
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Narendra Modi, India's prime minister, center, during a campaign rally in Agra, Uttar Pradesh, India, on Thursday, April 25, 2024. Photographer: Prakash Singh/Bloomberg via Getty Images Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesA decade into power, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears set to secure a rare third term, with the general elections now underway. Opposition 'witch hunt'Ahead of the elections, India's main opposition — the National Congress party — accused the Modi government of freezing its bank accounts. "This is a criminal action on the Congress party done by the prime minister and the home minister," said Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in a fiery attack. "During Manmohan Singh's time, India was also growing very fast," he added, referring to the economic reforms under the former prime minister in the 1990s.

Persons: Narendra Modi, India's, Modi, Prakash Singh, Asim Ali, Ali, Milan, Modi's, —, Rahul Gandhi, Chietigj Bajpaee, Arvind Kejriwal, consecrating, Ronojoy Sen, Neelanjan Sircar, Manmohan Singh's, Sircar Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, India's, East, CNBC, Dem, Freedom House, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Newsweek, Bharatiya Janata Party, National Congress, South Asia, Chatham House, Aam Aadmi Party, Modi's BJP, BJP, Institute of South Asian Studies, Centre for Policy Research Locations: Agra, Uttar Pradesh, India, East Asia, New Delhi, Sweden, U.S, Milan Vaishnav, South Asia, Gujarat, Ali, Delhi, Lok, Ayodhya, Ayodhya —, BJP

☆ Putin is putting his bromance with Xi on full display — but China has reason to be wary
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewChina's leader, Xi Jinping, rolled out the red carpet for his "old friend" Vladimir Putin on Thursday. For his part, Putin lavished praise on China, whose support has been vital during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But underneath the pageantry and rhetoric, Xi is under mounting pressure over his alliance with Putin — and he has good reason to be wary of their "no limits" partnership. President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping attend a concert marking the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and China in Beijing. "Meeting with Putin now is Xi's way of showing that China will not bend to Western pressure," said Torigian.

Persons: —, Xi, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Putin —, Xi Jinping, ALEXANDER RYUMIN, Zhao Tong, Graeme Thompson, Thompson, Joseph Torigian, Ali Wyne Organizations: Service, Business, Getty, BBC, Carnegie Endowment, Eurasia Group, Putin, Financial Times, School of International Service, American University, Xi, International Crisis Locations: Russian, Soviet, China, Ukraine, Russia, Beijing, Europe, Moscow, United States, Washington ,, America, Russia's, West

☆ US intelligence sees Russia step up disinformation campaign against Ukraine’s Zelensky
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Alex Marquardt | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Russia has stepped up its disinformation efforts to discredit Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and raise questions about his legitimacy in recent months, US intelligence agencies have observed. Russia has spread disinformation about Zelensky since before the war started but recent intelligence shows “it’s definitely increasing,” the official said. The administration has also imposed sanctions against individuals and entities connected with Russian disinformation. Both Ukraine and Russia have been involved in disinformation efforts against each other for years. “Not only have we seen these disinformation efforts increasing but we also expect them to continue to increase.”

Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky, “ it’s, “, ”, Zelensky, ’, Vladimir Putin’s, ’ ”, Gavin Wilde, ” Wilde, isn’t Organizations: CNN, Biden, ’ ” Biden, National Security Council, Carnegie Endowment, International Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Avdiivka, Ukrainian, Ukraine’s, Russian, Zelensky

☆ Russia is exploiting Ukraine's lack of manpower to thin out the front line and seek a breakthrough, military expert says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Thibault Spirlet | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewRussian forces are taking advantage of Ukraine's manpower shortage to thin out the front line and improve their chances of making breakthroughs, a war analyst said. According to the Times, in recent days Russian troops have poured across Ukraine's northeastern border and have taken at least nine villages and settlements. Ukraine's parliament also passed a bill earlier this month that would allow the country's military to recruit prisoners to fight . Whether these will be enough to replenish Ukrainian forces and prevent Russian breakthroughs remains unclear. AdvertisementFor now, Russian forces appear to be trying to encircle the city of Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv from the west and the east, according to an assessment published on Sunday by the ISW.

Persons: —, Franz, Stefan Gady, Michael Kofman, Kofman, Mark Herlting Organizations: Service, Center for New American Security, New York Times, Business, Times, Carnegie Endowment, International, Pentagon, Artillery, CNN, Associated Press Locations: Ukraine, Donbas, Ukrainian, Kharkiv, Russia, Ukraine's, Vovchansk

☆ Opinion | After College Presidents, Republicans Are Coming for Liberal Donors
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Michelle Goldberg | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

In a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland this week, the Republican senator Josh Hawley demanded a federal investigation into dark money groups subsidizing “pro-terrorist student organizations” holding anti-Israel protests on college campuses. He cited Politico reporting linking big liberal philanthropies to some pro-Palestinian organizers. Open Society Foundations, for example, founded by the oft-demonized George Soros, has given grants to the anti-Zionist Jewish Voice for Peace, which has an active university presence. That’s one reason I fear that the backlash to the pro-Palestinian campus movement — which includes lawsuits, hearings and legislation — could help Republicans wage war on progressive nonprofits more broadly. If they do, the right would be following a well-worn authoritarian playbook.

Persons: General Merrick Garland, Josh Hawley, George Soros, Hawley, “, Garland, Donald Trump, Trump, Rachel Kleinfeld, Kleinfeld, it’s Organizations: Politico, Society, Jewish Voice, Soros, Carnegie Endowment, International, Service, Carnegie Locations: Israel, Hungary

☆ 'Fierce' Russian attacks test Ukraine's defenses near its 2nd largest city
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia has launched a major attack in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces have responded to the attack, but "a fierce battle is underway." There are fears it could be part of a renewed drive for the city of Kharkiv that Russia failed to seize in the war's early months. AdvertisementRescuers work at a house in Kharkiv on May 10, 2024 after a Russian missile attack. The analysts said Moscow lacks enough troops in the area, and did not try to attack the city from multiple directions.

Persons: Zelenskyy, —, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Dara Massicot, Andrii, Andrii Kovalenko, Kovalenko Organizations: Service, Images, Slovakian, Carnegie Endowment, International, AP, Institute for, National Security and Defense Locations: Russia, Ukraine's, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Vovchansk, Moscow, Russian

☆ Israel's attack on Rafah shows the troubling limits of Biden's influence
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewEarly on Tuesday, Israeli tanks seized control of the vital Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt. But throughout its eight-month war, Israel has shown that it is willing to reject and ignore the advice of its most important international ally, the US. Israel on Monday warned civilians in eastern Rafah to evacuate, indicating that an attack may be imminent. His coalition is fragile, and he relies on the support of far-right lawmakers who are demanding an attack on Rafah. AdvertisementThe Gaza war has repeatedly threatened to spill into a wider regional conflict, and scenes of new civilian suffering in Rafah could intensify that threat.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Matt Duss, Biden, John Kirby, Netanyahu, Israel Biden, Israel, JIM WATSON, He's, Aaron David Miller, Dave Harden Organizations: Service, Hamas, Israeli, Business, Washington, Center for International, House, Monday, Biden, Getty, US, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Wall Street, New York Times, US Agency for International Development, West Bank, BBC Locations: Gaza, Egypt, Israel, Rafah, Ukraine, Israel —, Qatar, New York City, Palestinian, Saudi Arabia

☆ Ukraine's manpower problem is likely going to 'get worse before it gets better,' war expert says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Ella Sherman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Despite US aid, Ukraine struggles to maintain sufficient manpower on the front lines. Ukraine's dwindling soldier numbers are a problem that could get worse, a war analyst warned. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUkraine is having trouble maintaining a sufficient force size in its fight against Russia, which could lead to more problems down the road, war analyst Michael Kofman said. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: —, Michael Kofman Organizations: Service, Russia, Carnegie Endowment, International, Business Locations: Ukraine, Ukrainian, Kharkiv

☆ Biden faces widening partisan split over Israel
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

CNN —President Joe Biden is facing more critical moments this week that will test his fraught relationship with his base over Israel’s war in Gaza and potentially widen the partisan split about the Jewish state that has been building for years. Against this backdrop, partisan polarization about Israel among American voters was already widening years before the brutal Hamas attack last October and the devastating Israeli response it triggered. An array of polls this spring show how the war in Gaza has hardened this partisan split. Nearly half of Democrats, but only a little over one-fifth of Republicans in the CBS poll, said the US should pressure Israel to stop the fighting. “Biden has a Democratic caucus that is putting a lot of faith in this process,” she said.

Persons: Joe Biden, Long, Benjamin Netanyahu, Netanyahu, “, ”, Aaron David Miller, Biden, Harry Truman, Lyndon B, Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H.W, Bush, Reagan, George W, Donald Trump, Clinton, Barack Obama, Republicans —, Obama, Israel, Biden —, Gallup, Trump, That’s, Chuck Schumer, Mike Johnson, Biden’s, Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, Waleed Shahid, Shahid, David, it’s Goliath, David ”, Miller, “ Biden, ’ ”, Ben Rhodes, ” Biden, “ We’re, Saudi Arabia — “, Mark Mellman, Schumer, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Israel’s, Chris Murphy of, Chris Van Hollen, Chris Coons, Tim Kaine, Virginia, Van Hollen, Amanda Klasing, — Organizations: CNN, Israel, Republican, Democratic, Gallup Organization, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Holocaust Memorial, GOP, Whites, Republican Party, Republicans, Gallup, Trump, Chicago Council, Global Affairs, Quinnipiac University, CBS, Liberal, American Israel Public Affairs Committee, AIPAC, National Security Council, Amnesty International, Amnesty Locations: Gaza, Israel, United States, Iran, Quinnipiac, Washington, New York, Missouri, Yom Kippur, Saudi Arabia, Sens, Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, Rafah

☆ War analysts say Ukraine should treat the latest US aid package like it's the last one it'll get
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Ella Sherman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewWar experts are advising Ukraine to use its latest $61 billion US aid package cautiously as there is always the possibility that American aid could again be derailed by politics. Servicemen of the National Guard of Ukraine undergo training to storm enemy trenches using simulation equipment as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues in Kharkiv Region, Ukraine on February 29, 2024. Related stories"I think Ukraine can win this war. AdvertisementUkrainian soldiers reload an artillery unit on the front line, in the direction of the Kreminna as Russian - Ukraine war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on January 30, 2024. ISW has challenged the notion that the war is '"unwinnable" for Ukraine, calling that a Russian information operation.

Persons: —, Jennifer Kavanagh, Kelly Grieco, it's, Kavanagh, Grieco, Putin, Ignacio Marin, Vladimir Putin, ISW, Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba, Kuleba Organizations: Service, Carnegie Endowment, International, Business, Stimson Center, Republican, National Guard, Anadolu, Getty, Ukraine's, Foreign Affairs Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Kharkiv Region, Russian, Donetsk Oblast, Washington

☆ Russia's economic strength will last another 18 months before unraveling as Putin grapples with policy 'trilemma,' think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewRussia's economic strength could last another year-and-a-half before it starts to fade, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In a best-case scenario, the current arrangement will likely begin to come apart within eighteen months owing to growing imbalances and possible social problems," Prokopenko warned. In other words, temporary fixes and a decline in living standards will add to the political and economic headwinds facing the Kremlin," Prokopenko said. Experts have warned of near-term social unrest in Russia, particularly as living standards continue to deteriorate.

Persons: —, Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko, Putin Organizations: Service, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Washington DC, Monetary Fund, Business, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Kremlin Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Moscow

☆ Opinion | How to Be Pro-Palestinian, Pro-Israeli and Pro-Iranian
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Thomas L. Friedman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel over the weekend was a game-changing escalation that requires some game-changing rethinking on the part of Israel and its most important ally, the United States. I call it “the three-state solution.”It begins with the recognition that there is probably zero hope for any resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the Israel-Iran conflict without leadership change in Tehran, Jerusalem and Ramallah. “This region won’t see any meaningful peace or stability so long as this current government is in power in Tehran,” explained Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. To paraphrase Shimon Peres about prospects for change in Iran, the good news is there is light at the end of that tunnel. The bad news is that today there is no tunnel.”

Persons: ”, Karim Sadjadpour, Shimon Peres Organizations: Carnegie Endowment, International Locations: Israel, United States, Iran, Tehran, Jerusalem, Ramallah, Islamic Republic of Iran, Lebanese, Yemenis

☆ Arab states unexpectedly helped Israel fight off Iran's attack
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Jordan shot down an Iranian missile, and other Arab states may've provided intel. In March, Saudi Arabia and Iran restored ties with the help of China, agreeing to reopen embassies in their respective capitals. AdvertisementHowever, according to reports, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are willing to continue discussions with Israel once fighting in Gaza has abated. There is a risk for Arab states though in being seen to come to Israel's aid, Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, told Business Insider. AdvertisementAs the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, Arab states face a tough choice between their security priorities and addressing public anger over Gaza.

Persons: Israel, Jordan, may've, —, Samih, Marj Al, Yasmine Farouk, Farouk, Abraham, Trump, Israel's, Giorgio Cafiero Organizations: intel, Service, Deutsche Welle, St, Anadolu, Getty, Israel, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, New York Times, Abraham Accords, Analytics Locations: Iranian, Israel, Iran, Damascus, Jordan, Gaza, Jordanian, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Gulf, Marj, Amman , Jordan, China, Bahrain, Amman

☆ Israel-Iran tensions on the rise
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIsrael-Iran tensions on the riseKarim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Middle East Program, joins CNBC's Squawk Box to discuss the news reports on Iran preparing to attack Israel in a few days, risks for Iran if the tensions escalate, and more.

Persons: Karim Sadjadpour Organizations: Israel, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace Middle Locations: Iran, Israel

☆ Six months into the war in Gaza, Israel has no exit strategy and no real plan for the future
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Ivana Kottasová | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +13 min

CNN —The war in Gaza has been raging for six months and the patience of Israel’s allies is running out. Israel launched the war immediately after the deadly October 7 terror attacks by Hamas. “There is no viable plan for the future of Gaza, not just for the day after, but even today. The number of Israeli soldiers killed in combat in Gaza since the start of the war has now surpassed 250. “He does not have a significantly different set of ideas for Gaza or for the future of Israel, Palestine or for Palestinian sovereignty.

Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Netanyahu, Israel, Yayha Sinwar, ”, Khaled Elgindy, Joe Biden, ” Elgindy, –, Nathan Thrall, “, Abed Salama, ” “, ” Thrall, don’t, Thrall, Elgindy, “ It’s, Yahya Hassouna, Harel Chorev, Moshe Dayan, ” Chorev, we’ll, it’s, ” Hellyer, Benny Gantz, Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s, it’s Netanyahu Organizations: CNN, Israel Defense Forces, Hamas, Gaza Ministry, Health, Palestinian Affairs, Middle East Institute, Gaza, West Bank, European Union, Getty, Moshe, Moshe Dayan Center for, African, Tel Aviv University, America, “, United, United Arab Emirates, Hellyer, Royal United Services Institute, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Washington DC, Palestinian Authority, KFOR, NATO Locations: Gaza, Israel, United States, United Kingdom, Palestine, Rafah, Jerusalem, Hamas, Gaza City, AFP, Britain, Germany, France, Egypt, Palestinian, United Arab, London, Washington, Kosovo

☆ Opinion: What to make of Schumer’s scathing speech on Netanyahu
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-17 | by ( Opinion Aaron David Miller | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

So, is Schumer’s speech likely to have a major impact in Israel or on Biden administration policy? One way to read the impact of Schumer’s speech is that it will give the administration the political space to toughen up its policies toward the Netanyahu government. How Schumer’s speech will impact Israel and the US-Israeli relationship is hard to predict. Just look at the Republican reaction to Schumer’s speech. In an interview with CNN, Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell said Schumer’s speech was a contradiction of US policy.

Persons: Aaron David Miller, ” Miller, Chuck Schumer, ” that’s, Howard Beale, Benjamin Netanyahu, ‘, Schumer, Biden, Netanyahu, “ atta, Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennett, ” Benny Gantz, Schumer “, “, ” Gantz, We’re, Donald Trump, Trump, Will Biden, Joe Biden, It’s, that’s, he’s, Israel –, Schumer won’t, George H.W, Bush, State James Baker, Yitzhak Rabin’s, Yitzhak Shamir, Rabin, Bill Clinton, Shimon Peres, Peres, John Boehner, Sen, Itamar Ben Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, Mitch McConnell, can’t, ” Organizations: Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Democratic, Republican, CNN, “, Likud, State, Republican Party, Democrat, Hamas, Biden, Israel, White, GOP, Republicans, West Bank Locations: East, Israel, Washington, “, Gaza, Arab, Michigan, Qatar, Iran, Jerusalem, America

Look no further than the close and historically complicated relationship that American presidents and congressional leaders have negotiated with Israel leaders over the last 75 years. Obama declined to invite Netanyahu to the White House during the visit, with White House officials saying that holding such a visit so close to Israel's election would be inappropriate. The standard Obama set for a White House visit wasn't one Bill Clinton subscribed to years earlier. The bigger the ally's economy, the less likely American leaders are to meddle openly in its elections. “There are moments when American leaders want to and need to speak out and have their say.

Persons: Chuck Schumer, Benjamin Netanyahu's, Mitch McConnell, Schumer, ”, Mike Johnson, Benny Gantz, Netanyahu, Schumer's, Netanyahu —, “, —, Aaron David Miller, Donald Trump, John Boehner, Boehner, Barack Obama's, Obama, wasn't, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Shimon Peres, Peres, Edward Frantz, meddle, ” Frantz, November's, Donald Tusk, Tusk, Andrzej Duda, Johnson, Biden, Viktor Orbán, Orbán, Trump, David Pressman, Jake Sullivan, ” Sullivan, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, George H.W, Bush, ” Miller Organizations: WASHINGTON, — Republicans, Democratic, Republican, Israel, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, U.S, White, Israeli, University of Indianapolis, November's Biden, Trump, NATO, Polish, Biden, Republican House, Hungarian, White House Locations: Gaza, Israel, East, United States, Ukraine, Russia, Hungary, U.S, Hungarian, ” Hungary, Budapest, Sinai, Suez

☆ Photos show Ukraine bracing for Russian assaults with some of the same tricks that derailed its big counteroffensive
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Ella Sherman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Digging DefensesWorkmen are seen preparing trenches on the new defense line on March 12, 2024 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine. Dragon's Teeth"Dragon's teeth", anti-tank obstacles, are seen on the new defense line on March 12, 2024 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine. AdvertisementThe ToolsDrone view of the construction of the defense line on March 12, 2024 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine. Drone view of the construction of the defense line on March 12, 2024 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine. AdvertisementDrone view of the construction of the defense line on March 12, 2024 in Kharkiv region, Ukraine.

Persons: —, Kostiantyn, They're, Dara Massicot, Kostiantyn Liberov, crowdfunding, Emma Ashford, Putin Organizations: Service, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Getty, Russia, Stimson Center Locations: Kharkiv, Ukraine, Russia, Avdiivka, Kharkiv region, Washington

☆ The Russian war machine is fired up but won't be able to keep going like this indefinitely, war analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Ella Sherman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewRussia's war machine has picked up momentum in concert with its increased industrial capacity and decreased Ukrainian resistance, but current Russian manufacturing capabilities and stored combat systems won't last forever, war experts say. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a major factor in its ongoing labor shortage, an issue that can affect weapons manufacturing. Many Russian citizens who might have worked key jobs have either enlisted in the military or have fled the country. AdvertisementThe increased capacity of Russia's defense industrial base, ISW said, is "capable of sustaining Russia's current tempo of operations" in the short-term.

Persons: —, Forbes, Russia's, ISW, Dara Massicot Organizations: Service, Institute, Business, Street Journal, Royal United Services Institute, Avdiivka, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace's, Eurasia Locations: Russian, Russian Soviet, Russia, London, Ukraine, International Peace's Russia

☆ A breakaway region in Europe is asking Russia for protection. Here’s what to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Christian Edwards | Anna Chernova | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

No country officially recognizes Transnistria, where Russia has kept a steadily dwindling military presence for decades, now standing at around 1,500 troops. Before Wednesday, the congress’ most recent meeting was in 2006, when it passed a referendum calling to join Russia. When Transnistrian politicians unexpectedly announced a new meeting, analysts suggested this could lead to fresh calls for unification with Russia. Russia’s war in Ukraine has had a profound effect on Transnistria’s economy. Minzarari said the dispute had created opportunities for Russian authorities to “fish in troubled waters.”Why is Russia interested in Moldova?

Persons: Vladimir Putin, ”, Daniel Voda, “, Maia Sandu, Dumitru Minzarari, ” Minzarari, Minzarari, Gen, Rustam Minnekaev, Lenin, Anton Polyakov, Putin, Vadim Kranoselsky, ” Ben Dubow Organizations: CNN —, European Union, Kremlin, Novosti, Moldova’s, Transnistria’s, Deputies, Russia, Moldovan, Russia’s, Ministry, CNN, EU, Carnegie Endowment, International, Baltic Defense College, Military Region, Institute for, RIA Novosti, Center for Locations: Moldova, Transnistria, Soviet Union, Ukraine, Moscow, Soviet, Moldovan, Russia, Tiraspol, Odesa, Maj, Kherson, Russian, US, Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kyiv, Transnistrian

☆ Opinion: What the AT&T outage reveals
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( Opinion Bob Kolasky | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

CNN —The news Thursday morning of the AT&T service outage — affecting tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of customers — was yet another reminder of the importance of critical infrastructure resilience. By a few minutes after 3 pm ET, about 11 hours after customers’ initial reports of the outage, AT&T said it had restored service to all affected customers. For communications, it can be conceptualized in two different ways: What is the scope and scale of the service outage and what are the cascading consequences of the outage? In a connected world, a widespread communications outage can have a contagion effect. Infrastructure outage incidents can’t be addressed by stove-piping information.

Persons: Bob Kolasky, —, it’s Organizations: Infrastructure Security, Risk Management, CNN, Bob Kolasky Department of Homeland, Federal Communications Commission, White, Communications, AT, Rogers Communications, Chinese Communist Party, Telecommunications, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace Locations: Exiger, Canada, France, Paris, Puerto Rico, Southeast, Gulf

☆ Ukraine can still win against Russia, but a few very important things need to happen this year, war experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Ella Sherman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Military experts say Ukraine can still win against Russia by prioritizing defense and seizing key opportunities. War watchers say that Ukraine can still win against Russia's invasion if it prioritizes defense, rebuilding combat capability, and hitting Russia where it is most vulnerable as the country enters its third year of war. If Ukraine consistently holds its own against Russia, Kofman noted, this would keep Russia in a weak position by letting attrition take its toll. "It was to put Ukraine in a position where it can attain decisive leverage to negotiate with Russia war termination, from a favorable position and then to attain a durable peace." Davis said that Ukraine needs to attempt to negotiate as soon as it can with Russia to end the war.

Persons: watcher's, Michael Kofman, Kofman, STRINGER, Emma Ashford, Henry L, Putin, Ashford, Daniel Davis, Davis, Avdiivka Organizations: Russia, Russia's, Carnegie Endowment, International, Getty, Stimson Center, Kurt & Company, Defense Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Russian, Novorossiysk, Europe, Bakhmut District

RAFAH, Gaza Strip (AP) — Israel has not presented specific evidence that Hamas is diverting U.N. aid and its recent targeted killings of Gaza police commanders safeguarding truck convoys have made it “virtually impossible” to distribute the goods safely, a top U.S. envoy said in rare public criticism of Israel. “We are working with the Israeli government, the Israeli military in seeing what solutions can be found here because everyone wants to see the assistance continue,” Satterfield told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Friday. On Friday, police opened fire after a crowd charged toward an aid truck that had emerged from the Rafah crossing with Egypt. Israel has alleged repeatedly that Hamas is diverting aid, including fuel, after it enters Gaza, a claim denied by U.N. aid agencies. Last week, an Israeli airstrike on a car killed three senior police commanders in Rafah, the first entry point for aid deliveries.

Persons: — Israel, Israel, David Satterfield, Biden, ” Satterfield, Wael Abu Omar, Satterfield, Joe Biden, Diaa Rashwan, Khan Younis, Gaza’s, city's Nasser, ___ Magdy Organizations: Carnegie Endowment, International, Authority, U.N, Hamas, Ministry, Islamic, Authorities, State Information Service, Gaza Health Ministry, Health Ministry Locations: RAFAH, Gaza, U.S, Rafah, Egypt, Israel, EGYPT, Khan, Cairo, ___, israel

Autocracies – governments in which one person possesses unlimited power – are on the rise. Meanwhile, the percentage of electoral democracies – political systems that hold meaningful, free and fair elections with multiple political parties – has gone down. Starting in the 1960s and again in the 1980s, the global share of autocracies decreased dramatically as democracy started to gain more of a foothold around the world, according to V-Dem’s analysis. And despite the relative rise in autocracies in recent years, there were still 58 elected democracies globally compared to 30 closed autocracies in 2022. In 2022 there were also 58 electoral autocracies, which “hold multiparty elections but their quality or conditions around them are not sufficient to be classified as an electoral democracy,” according to V-Dem experts.

Persons: ”, Thomas Carothers, –, “, Barbara Wejnert, Carothers, Viktor Orbán, Recep Tayyip Edrogan, Narendra Modi, Subianto, it’ll, “ It’s, ” Carothers, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Trump’s Organizations: Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, University of Buffalo, Global Democracy, European Union, Brookings Institution, The Washington, New York Times, Reuters Locations: Indonesia, autocracies, China, Russia, Hungary, Turkey, India, Indonesian, U.S

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