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☆ The Fed slashed interest rates last week, but Treasury yields are rising. What's going on?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Treasury market, though, hasn't been paying attention. Watching the curveThe difference between the 10- and 2-year notes has widened significantly, increasing by about 12 basis points since the Fed meeting. That sentiment is evident in the "breakeven" inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. watch nowFed officials aim for a 2% inflation rate, and none of the principal gauges are there yet.

Persons: Anna Moneymaker, hasn't, Jonathan Duensing, — haven't, Robert Tipp Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation Locations: Washington , DC

☆ These funds aim to multiply the market's dividend yield. How they stack up to competitors
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The funds target distributions equal to six times the dividend payouts on the Nasdaq-100 Index and four times the S & P 500 dividend, respectively. The idea behind the Pacer funds is that the funds will capture more of that upside during market rallies, according to Sean O'Hara, president at Pacer ETF Distributors. The QDPL's website currently shows a distribution yield of 5.79%, or more than four-times the roughly 1.3% dividend yield on the S & P 500, according to YCharts.com. The dividend futures could also see bigger gains if more companies in the index decide to start paying dividends. To be sure, the dividend futures contracts could also decrease in value during times of economic stress.

Persons: Sean O'Hara, O'Hara, QDPL, Dow, Apple Organizations: Nasdaq, —, ETF Distributors, Schwab, Equity, Dow Jones, CME Group, Pacer, SEC, Microsoft

☆ Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari sees a slower pace of rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Monday that he expects policymakers to dial down the pace of interest rate cuts after last week's half percentage point reduction. "I think after 50 basis points, we're still in a net tight position," Kashkari said in a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. "Right now, we still have a strong, healthy labor market. In their latest economic projections, FOMC members indicated that rate is probably around 2.9%; the current fed funds rate is targeted between 4.75% and 5%. Speaking separately Monday morning, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated he expects the Fed to move aggressively in getting back to a neutral rate.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, we're, Kashkari, Kasharki, Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed Locations: Minneapolis

☆ JPMorgan economist who nailed half-point call sees another big Fed rate cut in November
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

At its much-anticipated meeting Wednesday, the Fed approved a half percentage point, or 50 basis point, cut to its benchmark funds rate that ran counter to the 25 basis point move that many Wall Street economists and strategists had been expecting. The benchmark fed funds rate now stands at 4.75% to 5.00% after Wednesday's move. Futures market pricing Thursday suggested a 25 basis point move in November followed by a 50 basis point cut in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch. A basis point equals 0.01%. "Ultimately what we found most important in what Powell said was also among the least surprising things he said: future decisions are going to depend on the data," Feroli wrote.

Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Street Locations: U.S

☆ Battleground stocks: Wall Street is completely divided on these controversial names
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Forty-one percent of analysts polled by FactSet have a buy rating on Tesla stock, while 21% have a sell rating. About 43% of analysts surveyed by FactSet maintain a buy rating on IBM stock, but 21% are at a sell. He also noted that the risk-to-reward skew on IBM stock is more balanced, leaving less upside for the stock. IBM YTD mountain IBM stock. Goldman Sachs recently added IBM to its conviction list with a $220 price target, or 2% above where shares closed Wednesday.

Persons: Tesla, TSLA, Wolfe Research's Emmanuel Rosner, Rosner, Morgan Stanley, Adam Jonas, Jonas, Elon Musk, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi, Sacconaghi, Goldman Sachs, Jim Schneider, Campbell Soup Organizations: CNBC Pro, FactSet, U.S, automakers, IBM, Pepperidge

☆ European markets set for lower open as investors weigh UK inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Italy's FTSE MIB meanwhile was set to fall by around 39 points to 33,784. LONDON — European markets were headed for a lower open on Wednesday as investors considered key data from the region and looked to the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision. In Europe, U.K. inflation figures for August were published Wednesday, coming in at 2.2% according to data from the Office for National Statistics. The data comes ahead of the Bank of England meeting and interest rate policy decision scheduled for later this week. The Fed is all but guaranteed to announce an interest rate cut on Wednesday, which would be its first since it started hiking rates in March 2022.

Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: CAC, LONDON, U.S . Federal, Office, National Statistics, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, Traders Locations: Europe, Asia, Pacific

☆ The Fed has waited four years to cut rates. But it’s still a tough call
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

It’s also a sign of confidence from Fed officials that inflation has come under control just enough to comfortably dial back policy. Typically, in the lead-up to a Fed policy decision, Wall Street and economists are in alignment on what to expect. But investors’ wagers for a half-point cut ramped up on Monday; and as of Tuesday afternoon, federal funds futures contracts were pricing in a 63% chance of a jumbo rate cut, up from around 30% on Thursday, according to the CME Group. As inflation skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022, American employers pumped out jobs and the unemployment rate declined to half-century lows. The Fed eventually responded to the country’s inflation problem with its bitter medicine of high interest rates.

Persons: It’s, Christopher Waller, Elizabeth Warren, Robert Kaplan, Bill Dudley, ”, Powell, ” Gregory Daco, “, ” Julia Hermann Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Street, CME, Fed, Democratic, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Former New York, Bloomberg, Dow, Labor, New York Life Investments, CNN

☆ It’s Fed decision day, and investors aren’t 100% sure what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders across Wall Street expect the Fed to lower rates, ending the tightening cycle that began in March 2022. That said, investors aren't sure how big the rate reduction will be. To be sure, it closed more than 30 points below the closing all-time high of 5,634.58 set in July. We tend to agree with that, but also think the setup for a 'false breakout' remains high," wrote Krinsky. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning , Barclays upgraded VF Corp to overweight from equal weight.

Persons: Chris Murphy, Susquehanna, Jonathan Krinsky, It's, Adrienne Yih Organizations: Federal, Traders, Barclays, Corp

☆ Treasury yields inch higher as investors look to Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.6046% after adding over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Wednesday as all eyes were on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision expected for later in the day. The focus on Wednesday will be on the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and guidance for the monetary policy outlook. While a interest rate cut is all but guaranteed, traders are divided about the size of the rate reduction. Investors are also hoping for hints about what Fed interest rate policy could look like for the remainder of the year and if more cuts are on the horizon.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Investors

☆ What a Fed rate cut could mean for the world
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowThe U.S. Federal Reserve is on Wednesday heading for its first interest rate cut since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic — and despite the move being widely forecast, global investors are braced for impact. Global impactA key concern is the pressure interest rate differentials put on currencies. Oil and other commodities, usually priced in dollars, often receive a boost with a rate cut as a lower cost of borrowing can stimulate an economy and increase demand. "Interest rate cuts reduce the cost of borrowing in U.S. dollars, thereby creating easier liquidity conditions for companies around the world," Quilter Cheviot's Richard Carter continued via email. That includes whether the initial cut will reduce the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points or 50 basis points below its current 525 to 550 range.

Persons: —, Richard Carter, Cheviot, Cheviot's Richard Carter Organizations: U.S . Federal, Turkish, U.S ., Fed, Federal, Equity Locations: U.S, Canada, Mexico, Switzerland, Sweden

☆ Treasury yields little changed as Fed meeting set to kick off
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury yield was down by less than one basis point to 3.6194%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last less than one basis point lower to 3.5506%. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled to begin, with policymakers widely expected to announce an interest rate cut at its conclusion. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week, with an interest rate cut from the central bank all but guaranteed. The key question across markets remains how big the rate cut from the Fed will be on Wednesday.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal, Federal Reserve, Fed, Traders, Bank of England, Bank of Locations: Bank of Japan

☆ Bitcoin climbs above $60,000 ahead of Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Bitcoin reclaimed $60,000 on Tuesday as investors awaited details of the Federal Reserve's rate cutting plans. Bitcoin "is likely to react to the news of a Fed rate cut with some retrenchment as the short-term market dynamics filter out," said Philipp Pieper, co-founder of Swarm Markets. The market is divided on whether the Fed would reduce rates by 25 or 50 basis points. One basis point equals 0.01%. Investors have been anticipating Fed rate cuts, the growth of bitcoin ETFs and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election as the next catalysts to shake up the crypto market.

Persons: Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Donald Trump, Philipp Pieper, bitcoin Organizations: Metrics, Federal Reserve, Swarm Markets, Nasdaq, Investors, U.S

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street anticipates a long-awaited Fed rate cut: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works, as a screen broadcasts a news conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on June 12, 2024. Stock futures were flat in overnight trading Tuesday as Wall Street anticipated a long-awaited rate cut from the Federal Reserve following an aggressive multiyear hiking campaign aimed at tamping down hot inflation. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 28 points, while S&P 500 futures hovered near the flatline. Investors remain on high alert ahead of the first expected rate cut from the Fed at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday. CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows traders pricing in a 63% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and 37% odds of a 25 basis point move.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Peter Cecchini, Axonic, CNBC's Organizations: Federal, New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Fed

☆ Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan advocates for a half-point interest rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

If Robert Kaplan still had a say in the matter, he'd be pushing for a half percentage point interest rate reduction at this week's Federal Reserve meeting. The former Dallas Fed president told CNBC on Tuesday that making the bolder move of 50 basis points would better position policymakers heading into the latter part of the year and the economic challenges ahead. "If I were sitting at the table, I would be advocating for 50 in this meeting," Kaplan said during a "Squawk Box" interview. One basis point equals 0.01%. Kaplan ran the Dallas Fed from 2015-21 and is now a managing director at Goldman Sachs.

Persons: Robert Kaplan, Kaplan, Jerome Powell, Jay Powell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Dallas Fed, CNBC, Federal

☆ The Fed's biggest interest rate call in years happens Wednesday. Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The meeting wraps up Wednesday afternoon, with the release of the Fed's rate decision coming at 2 p.m. "I hope they cut 50 basis points, but I suspect they'll cut 25. Here's a breakdown of what's on tap:The rate waitThe FOMC has been holding its benchmark fed funds rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% since it last hiked in July 2023. The 'dot plot'Perhaps just as important as the rate cut will be the signals meeting participants send about where they expect rates to go from here. In June, FOMC members penciled in just one rate cut through the end of the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik, they'll, Mark Zandi, that's, Tom Simons, Zandi, Robert Kaplan, There'll, Seema Shah, FOMC, Moody's, Goldman Sachs, Powell presser, Goldman, Simons Organizations: Federal Reserve, Committee, Moody's, Wall, Jefferies, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Asset Management Locations: Washington , DC

☆ DoubleLine’s Gundlach says the Fed needs to cut rates quickly, sees a half-point reduction Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve needs to ease policy swiftly amid the current economic slowdown, seeing a half-point interest-rate reduction this week. A quarter-point rate cut had been the consensus as recently as a week ago. But the 2-year Treasury yield was last at around 3.59%. The size of the Fed's first rate cut in years has been a point of debate on Wall Street. On the one hand, a rate cut could help boost earnings growth for companies following a period of high borrowing costs and stubborn inflation.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, CNBC's Scott Wapner Organizations: DoubleLine, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: Huntington Beach , California, United States

☆ Gold's rally to records shows no signs of slowing
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices just won't stop rising. Year to date, gold is up nearly 26% — outpacing the S & P 500's 18% gain. Since ETF holdings only increase gradually as the Fed cuts, this upside is not yet fully priced in." Investors seeking exposure to gold can obtain it through exchange traded funds, such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) . The fund, which tracks gold prices and charges 0.4% in fees, is up nearly 25% in 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lina Thomas, Thomas, Christopher Danely Organizations: Reserve, Goldman, Miners, Gold Miners, Citigroup, Micron Technology

☆ Elizabeth Warren calls for emergency-like Fed rate cut ASAP
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The American economy appears to be just hours away from a major milestone: The first interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve since Covid. Yet there remains an unusual amount of drama over the magnitude of that rate cut, with some in Washington calling for a supersized move. Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren wants the Fed to slash interest rates at a pace rarely seen outside of a full-blown crisis. “It is clearly the time for the Fed to cut rates. For instance, in early 2008 the Fed slashed interest rates by three-quarters of a point or more on three occasions.

Persons: Massachusetts Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Jerome Powell, Warren, “, ” Warren, Sheldon Whitehouse, John Hickenlooper, Powell, Bill Dudley, “ dawdling, Dudley, ” Dudley, panicking, David Kelly, ” Kelly, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Massachusetts Democratic, Sens, Wall, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of New, CNN, Democrats, Asset Management Locations: New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street braces for retail sales data, Fed policy meeting: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were flat Monday evening as Wall Street readied for key retail sales data and the start of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Futures tied to the S&P 500 hovered near the flatline, along with futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average . Investors on Tuesday will parse retail sales data for August for one final glimpse into the health of the U.S. consumer ahead of the Fed rate decision. The results could affect the rate cut outcome. She is forecasting additional 25 basis point cuts in November and December.

Persons: Biden, Dow, Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Intel, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Fed, CME Group's, September's National Association of Home Builders Housing

☆ Homebuilder stocks are 'priced for perfection,' investors needs to see lower rates driving demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks in the firm's coverage universe have "significantly front-loaded expected rate cut benefits, well in excess of prior fed cycles," he said. The chances of a smaller 25 basis point cut have fallen to a 41% chance. Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley is watching the data very closely as well and said a lot will depend on how consumers react as mortgage rates fall. Bouley said this is one of the clearest signs yet that a recent decline in mortgage rates is bringing buyers into the market. Slightly more than half the analysts who cover the stock rate it a buy or overweight, it said.

Persons: Mike Dahl, Dahl, Toll, Taylor Morrison, Matthew Bouley, Bouley, Horton Organizations: Federal Reserve, RBC Capital Markets, Tri, Tri Pointe Homes, Toll, RBC, KB, Barclays Locations: Tri Pointe, staving, Horton

☆ Jim Cramer: 'Don't freak out' about Fed rate-cut size, focus on stocks that benefit
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday that investors shouldn't panic over the size of the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut this week. Instead, they should focus on the stocks that will benefit from the easing monetary policy. He stressed, "What matters is we're in a rate cut cycle. In a rate cut cycle, you buy a lot of stocks that … should really start accelerating because they've been hurt." When central bankers announce their next policy move, Cramer said that there will likely be some market volatility regardless of the size of the reduction.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Stanley Blacker, Decker, Stanley Black Organizations: Stanley, Trust, CNBC Locations: U.S, Cramer's

☆ BlackRock's Rick Rieder says a golden age for fixed income begins this week with the Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With the Federal Reserve expected to begin its rate-cutting cycle this week, investors should take advantage of this "golden age of fixed income" now, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder. "The world is changing," said Rieder, the asset manager's global chief investment officer of fixed income. In this environment, Rieder likes the belly of the curve and assets like securitized products , high yield and European credit. BINC currently has about 28% of its assets in non-U.S. credit and about 20% in U.S. high-yield bonds. Rieder is not concerned about the narrow spreads in high-yield credit.

Persons: BlackRock's Rick Rieder, —, Rieder, BINC, We've, CLOs Organizations: Federal Reserve, SEC, Fed, AAA, MBS, AAA CLOs Locations: BlackRock, Europe, U.S

☆ U.S. Treasury yields dip as investor focus shifts to Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was less than one basis point lower at 3.6401%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower on Monday as investors looked ahead to this week's Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision. The Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision are top of mind for investors this week, with the central bank's meeting kicking off Tuesday and concluding Wednesday. Markets are anticipating a rate cut from the Fed, the first since it began hiking rates in March 2022, but uncertainty about how big the reduction will be has been widespread. The central bank is also set to publish its latest economic projections on Wednesday.

Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Reserve, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of England

☆ Stocks could hit a record this week, but the move may be short lived
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is on the verge of something unexpected — especially for September. The broad market index entered the week less than 1% below a record last reached in July. Krinky isn't the only one on the Street treading carefully with the S & P 500 near record highs. "With the S & P 500 close to our YE 2024 price target again, we remain neutral on the S & P 500 for now," wrote Lori Calvasina, head of global equity research at RBC Capital Markets. "However, after a sharp move lower in 10-year yields, the earnings yield gap for the S & P 500 is starting to head in a more favorable direction for stocks," Calvasina added.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG, Krinsky, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Mark Mahaney Organizations: Traders, Federal, Market Committee, RBC Capital Markets, ISI, of Justice

☆ The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A week's worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. "We got two more months of good inflation data" since the last Fed meeting, Claudia Sahm, chief economist for New Century Advisors, said in a CNBC interview Friday. Futures markets for most of the past week had lasered in on a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, rate cut. The inflation data "on its own would have gotten us 25 next week, as it should, and will get us a whole string of cuts after that," she said. [Fed officials] need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut and then be ready to do more."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, Sahm Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, Federal Reserve, Federal, New Century Advisors, CNBC, Fed Locations: Washington ,

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