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☆ Hawkish Powell puts 50 bp Fed rate hikes back on table
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"Powell makes it clear the Fed would react accordingly if the data suggests that inflation continues to move in the wrong direction. It was very clear to the market that the Fed is not going to equivocate in terms of data that suggests inflation continues to climb higher or remain sticky." "Six percent (terminal rate) would be a little higher than it is likely. ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT"The focus of the Fed is trying to get inflation down to 2%. "I prefer just one more 25 basis point rate hike, but probably we're going to get three 25 basis point rate hikes."

☆ Wall St eyes lower open as producer prices rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A Labor Department report showed producer prices climbed 0.7% in January after a 0.2% fall in the previous month. "You're also seeing the job market still very strong as well, with claims coming in less than expected," Zaccarelli added. ET, Dow e-minis were down 274 points, or 0.8%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 47.5 points, or 1.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 185.75 points, or 1.46%. Traders will also scrutinize remarks from other Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, to assess the central bank's tone on monetary policy. Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall St slides as inflation, jobless claims data fuel rate-hike angst
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Another set showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, offering more evidence of the economy's resilience. "You're also seeing the job market still very strong as well, with claims coming in less than expected." The Fed is seen pushing the benchmark rate above the 5% mark by May and keeping it above those levels till the year-end. Traders will also scrutinize remarks from other Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, to assess the central bank's tone on monetary policy. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and one new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 28 new highs and 22 new lows.

☆ The former head of a $20 billion portfolio warns stocks will fall at least another 20% as investors become complacent about a recession and the Fed vows to keep rates elevated
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A hawkish Fed, as a result, will push the economy into recession, he argues. "That's not the Fed cutting to three percent, Adam, it's the Fed cutting to 2% or 1%." He cited the S&P 500 falling 20% from late-2000 to mid-2002 even as the Fed cut rates from 6.5% to 1.75% as precedent. Many Wall Street banks — including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and UBS — see a recession ahead for the US economy. The path of inflation will influence the path the US economy takes this year.

☆ Stock futures tick down after the Dow posts a five-day win streak
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures slipped Thursday evening as investors look ahead to earnings and economic reports due Friday. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.31% and 0.56%, respectively. The S&P 500 rose 1.10% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.76%. The Dow and the S&P 500 have gained 1.7% and 2.2% this week, respectively. Investors may be watching Chevron's report closely after the company announced a $75 billion stock buyback and dividend boost on Wednesday.

☆ Top market watchers on why much of the action in early 2023 will be dictated by the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTop market watchers on why much of the action in early 2023 will be dictated by the FedJeff Kilburg of KKM Financial and Chris Zaccarelli of the Independent Advisor Alliance discuss whether there's any outside shot at a Santa Claus rally, and how investors should position themselves through at least Q1 of next year.

Fears about the Federal Reserve's plan to keep raising U.S. interest rates have weighed heavily on equities since its policy meeting last week. Among the S&P 500's 11 major sectors, the energy index (.SPNY) gained most, finishing up 1.52% as crude oil prices rose. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 399 new lows. On U.S. exchanges 10.52 billion shares changed hands, compared with the 11.15 billion average for the last 20 trading days.

☆ Wall Street sees past Fed's lower rate hike to finish in red
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Lawrence Delevingne | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, December 8, 2022. While the dollar index initially jumped on the Fed news, trading was choppy and was last down nearly 0.5% on the day. European stocks were flat, with the continent-wide Stoxx 600 (.STOXX) down 0.02% after rising 1.3% in the previous session. "Rather it is dot plot expectations that the Fed will hold rates throughout 2023, and not begin rate cuts until 2024." U.S. Treasury yields were little changed to slightly lower in choppy trading after the Fed news.

☆ Fed hikes rates by 50 bp, as expected, keeps hawkish tone
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

STORY: STATEMENT TEXT:MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: The S&P 500 turned sharply lower then steadied down 0.11%BONDS: Benchmark 10-year note yields rose then backed off to 3.4847%. CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, INDEPENDENT ADVISOR ALLIANCE, CHARLOTTE“The Fed is taking away the punchbowl just as the party was getting started. They’re reiterating their forecasts but the whisper number was that the Fed was going to stop at a 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate. You know, the biggest thing that is holding the Fed back right now are the jobs numbers. The most dovish participants is looking for an extra 50 bps of hikes.

☆ US stocks fall as the Fed delivers smaller rate hike but maintains hawkish stance heading into 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks ended lower Wednesday after the Fed hiked rates by 50-basis-points. The move was widely expected, though the Fed may have struck a more hawkish tone than what traders wanted to hear. The Fed funds rate is now at its highest level since 2007, with officials expecting to hike rates past 5% through next year. Today's move brought the Fed funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%, the highest policy rate since 2007. "The effects of the tightening in 2022 will continue to be felt in 2023 through a weaker labour market, recession in Europe, and potentially a recession in the US.

☆ Instant view: Fed hikes rates by 50 bp, as expected, keeps hawkish tone
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, INDEPENDENT ADVISOR ALLIANCE, CHARLOTTE“The Fed is taking away the punchbowl just as the party was getting started. They're reiterating their forecasts but the whisper number was that the Fed was going to stop at a 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate. "But the Fed is out there saying that 5.1% is still on the cards … and that rate hikes will continue." BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“The most interesting part of the releases were in the Summary of Economic Projections. And they’re holding it there longer than markets expected.”“In addition, they’re downgrading GDP estimates for this year, and in particular, for next year.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why the stock market is channeling Goldilocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

It’s rough out there, but there is a silver lining: Persistently high Inflation is showing signs of slowing. “This morning’s data was a Goldilocks report,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in a note Thursday. Gas prices also dropped between October and November, which means that inflation could keep slowing. A range of factors have led to the drop in gas prices – and not all of them are positive. The bottom line: Gas prices are still relatively high for this time of the year, but looking ahead, some forecasters see gas prices continuing to dip.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead With Black Friday ahead, investors look to U.S. consumer stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer discretionary stocks, a group whose members run the gamut from Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and automaker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) to retailer Target Corp (TGT.N), have been walloped by surging prices, with the S&P 500’s consumer discretionary sector falling nearly 33% for the year to date compared with a nearly 17% fall for the broader index. Investors poured a net $1.05 billion into consumer discretionary stocks in the past week, the sixth-largest weekly inflows since 2008, data from BofA Global Research showed. “Everybody is watching the strength of the consumer and so far the consumer has held.”Yruma is bullish on retailers Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N) and Target. To be sure, consumer stocks have had more than their fair share of woes this year. The bank's analysts are underweight the consumer discretionary sector.

☆ 3 Wall Street experts share what to do with your money now as cooling inflation has investors hopeful for a Fed pivot
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 jumped 5.5% on Thursday on news of cooling inflation. Investors are hoping the Fed will back off of hawkish policy sooner than they say. The SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) offers exposure to the S&P 500 index. "Investors should take steps to ensure that their portfolio is positioned for a global recession, as the stock market still isn't pricing in this global recession risk," Landsberg said. We are bearish on the sectors that we think will do poorly in a global recession such as tech and discretionary."

☆ Stock futures are flat as investors watch midterm results, await inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are flat Wednesday night as investors await new inflation data and eye election results. Futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 11 points, or 0.03%. S&P 500 futures added 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.13%. Instead, key Senate races in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada remain tightly contested. It's a key report for the Federal Reserve, which will meet again in mid-December.

☆ The two words investors want to hear from Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

As markets look for signs that the Federal Reserve is stepping away from its breakneck pace of interest rate hikes, two words from this week's meeting could be crucial. No one is expecting the Fed to stop rate hikes, at least for several months. "The November FOMC meeting is not about the November policy rate decision. Instead, the meeting is about future policy rate guidance and what to expect in December and beyond." Even with the step-down hopes from Wednesday's meeting, market expectations are still for a fairly aggressive Fed.

The dollar pared gains after earlier climbing to a fresh 24-year peak versus the yen, holding above levels that prompted intervention by Japan last month. Sterling regained ground after a sharp fall the previous day as investors eyed the Bank of England's next steps. In currencies, sterling was last trading at $1.1091, up 1.17% on the day after going as low as $1.0925 earlier. read moreThe euro fell 0.04% against the dollar to $0.9699 while the Japanese yen weakened 0.67% versus the greenback to 146.84 per dollar. Gold eked out gains on Wednesday after five sessions of losses, although an uptick in the dollar kept prices in check as investors waited for the Fed minutes.

The dollar pared gains after climbing to a fresh 24-year peak versus the yen, holding above levels that prompted intervention by Japan last month. Sterling regained ground after a sharp fall the previous day as investors eyed the Bank of England's next steps. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"For the most part there's nothing too earth shattering in the Fed minutes. But he cited discussions of calibrating the response, suggesting awareness of the risk of hiking rates too fast. Gold eked out gains on Wednesday after five sessions of losses, although an uptick in the dollar kept prices in check as investors waited for the Fed minutes.

☆ Sept FOMC showed agreement on higher rates for longer
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Many officials said they had raised their assessments of the path of interest rate increases that would likely be needed to achieve the committee's goals. Ultimately, they do think that you need to reach some very high interest rates in order to really cool down the economy. While inflation has peaked, the path to a 2% inflation rate will be long, windy and bumpy." "The Federal Reserve's current tone suggests it is committed to raising interest rates until the snake of inflation is dead." CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, INDEPENDENT ADVISOR ALLIANCE, CHARLOTTE, NC"For the most part there's nothing to earth shattering in the Fed minutes.

☆ Wall St inches higher in volatile trade following Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The minutes of the September meeting showed many Fed officials stressed the cost of not doing enough to bring down inflation. At the September meeting, Fed officials raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for the third straight time in an effort to drive inflation down from 40-year highs. "For the most part there's nothing too earth-shattering in the Fed minutes. Data earlier in the day showed a surprise rise in September producer prices. The Labor Department's producer prices index rose 8.5% in the 12 months through September, slightly higher than an estimated 8.4% rise.

☆ Fed officials worried about ending inflation battle prematurely, minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The minutes of the Sept. 20-21 meeting showed many U.S. central bank officials "emphasized the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action." At the meeting, many officials said they had raised their assessments of the path of interest rate increases that would likely be needed to achieve the policy-setting committee's goals. At last month's meeting, Fed officials raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for the third straight time in an effort to drive inflation down from 40-year highs, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell vowed afterward that they would "keep at it until we're confident the job is done." A few of those, the minutes said, noted that risk was heightened by the potential headwinds from tighter monetary policy and weaker growth globally. Fed officials have openly pushed back on that expectation, saying they expect to leave rates elevated for some time after they have finished lifting them.

☆ With stocks falling again, here's how to protect your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-29 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Now stocks appear to be reversing course, having fallen steeply in the wake of Powell’s address. While it may be a bumpy road ahead, there are ways to mitigate potential damage to your portfolio in the coming months. Forget timing the marketYou may be tempted to sell equities and move the proceeds into cash or a money market fund. You’ll tell yourself you will move the money back into stocks when things improve. So check to see that your current allocation to stocks and bonds matches your risk tolerance and your ideal retirement date.

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