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As of late January, large speculators held moderate to large net long positions across CBOT corn, soybeans and soybean products, and those collectively outweighed their sizable net short in CBOT wheat. CBOT futures have mostly strengthened since then. Black Sea concerns and worsening crops in Argentina also helped CBOT corn drift 0.5% higher in the last 13 days, ending at $6.80-1/2 per bushel Friday. Corn has been the most mild-mannered of CBOT contracts since Jan. 25, trading up or down by less than 2% since then. ESTIMATESAs of Jan. 24, money managers’ net long position in CBOT corn futures and options hit an 11-week high of 201,797 contracts.

Combined corn and soy acreage estimates are now closer to 178 million to 180 million rather than 183 million-plus two years ago, keeping primary crop acreage somewhat competitive. Fertilizer prices remain high but have eased since last fall, favorable for corn profitability prospects so long as corn prices do not significantly decline. Insurance price for spring wheat is also set during February, and half of the U.S. spring wheat crop is planted in North Dakota. The state’s spring wheat plantings ended higher than original intentions while corn and soy acres ended lower. Still, U.S. spring wheat acreage in 2022 was down from both intentions and the previous year.

New gross longs were the primary reason for the move, as has been the case in most recent weeks when funds were net corn buyers. CBOT corn ended at $6.83 per bushel Friday, up 5% from the month’s low and stronger than the year-ago $6.36. Most active CBOT wheat futures fell more than 2% in the week ended Jan. 24, including a 16-month low of $7.12-1/2 on Jan. 23. Most-active CBOT wheat had traded between $4.16 and $4.37 per bushel in April 2017. Their net long fell to 135,503 CBOT soymeal futures and options contracts from the all-time high of 150,939 a week earlier.

As of Jan. 19, U.S. soybean sales for 2022-23 totaled 46.5 million tonnes, up 5% from a year earlier. Robust sales are not necessarily needed from here as only 7.6 million tonnes stand between Jan. 19 sales and USDA’s full-year forecast. Net U.S. soybean sales to unknown destinations in 2022-23 are record-large for the date at 4.6 million tonnes. Sales to China of 28.2 million tonnes as of Jan. 19 are up 11% from last year. Some 129,000 tonnes had been sold to China in the week ended Jan. 19, revealed in Thursday’s weekly export sales.

Ongoing drought in Argentina also enticed fund buying last week in corn, soybeans and soybean meal, forcing another managed money record in the latter. Money managers' extension of net longs in CBOT corn, soybeans and meal in the week ended Jan. 17 was the result of new gross longs, which were especially numerous in corn and beans. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsOpen interest in CBOT corn futures and options is at 13-year lows for the time of year after hovering a bit below average during mid-to-late 2022. Through Jan. 17, money managers boosted their net long in CBOT corn futures and options to 192,137 contracts from 149,605 a week earlier. In the last three sessions, most-active CBOT soybean futures fell 2.2%, corn fell 1.3% and soymeal shed 3.6%.

Most-active CBOT corn futures had declined more than 2% through Jan. 10, and CBOT soybeans fell fractionally. Corn and soybean futures both rose about 3% from Wednesday through Friday. However, strength in corn and soy, along with much lighter-than-predicted Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks, allowed CBOT wheat to rise 1.6% in the last three sessions. The managed money net short in Minneapolis wheat futures and options decreased slightly through Jan. 10 to 2,704 contracts. wheat futures and optionsKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

The ever-important U.S. corn crop may be most primed for a market miss due to an alarmingly low range of guesses. YIELDSAnalysts’ range on U.S. corn yield is a seven-year low and for soybeans it is at least a 13-year low. U.S. farmers did not have a banner corn crop primarily because of drought in western areas. The 2021 corn yield last January was unchanged from November, but otherwise the trade is looking for the smallest January move in corn yield in 14 years. Argentina’s corn crop is seen falling more than 5% to 52 million tonnes from 55 million in December.

CORN, SOY, WHEATCBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures declined notably on Jan. 3, the first trading day of 2023. Through Jan. 3, they cut about 3,500 contracts from their stance, resulting in a net short of 52,715 CBOT wheat futures and options contracts. Investors may have reduced CBOT corn length late last week with futures down 2.5% between Wednesday and Friday. Most-active CBOT soybean futures were unchanged over the last three sessions given the poor conditions in Argentina and possibly unfavorable weather in Brazil’s southernmost state offsetting U.S. demand concerns. They expect U.S. corn, soy and wheat ending stock estimates to rise along with Brazilian corn and soy crops, though a sizable decline is predicted for Argentina’s harvests.

Most-active corn futures’ worst recent January performance came in 2010 with a plunge of 14%, and most-active soybeans suffered the same fate that year, falling 13% during the month. That happened in January 2010, when decently bullish speculators heavily sold corn and soy futures in the weeks after the USDA report. Corn & soy futures in JanuaryUSDA INFLUENCEThe January trend in CBOT corn and soybean futures usually mimics price action on the month’s U.S. Department of Agriculture report day, so long as futures move by at least 1% on that day. But corn and soy futures have been uncharacteristically quiet on January report days in the last few years, making it harder to anticipate the trend going forward. January 2021 was the last time most-active corn futures spent more than one day below $5.

The managed money meal net long of 129,989 contracts, up about 8,700 on the week, rivals May 2018’s high of 133,549. That is supported by a heavier managed money net long: 128,616 futures and options contracts now versus about 98,000 a year ago. Most-active CBOT soybean futures on Friday settled at $15.24 per bushel, their highest since June. CBOT soybean oil futures expanded 13.3% in 2022 after increasing by a third in 2021, though they declined 3.5% in the latest three sessions. Open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options had ended 2021 at the lowest point for the date since 2008.

Historically, ratios below 2.3 are supportive of corn planting and soybeans dominate around 2.5 and above, but the middle can be gray. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently slated 2023 corn acres at 92 million, up from 88.6 million this year. Soybean plantings were seen at 87 million acres in 2023 versus 87.5 million in 2022. Prices as of February should better dictate U.S. farmers’ 2023 planting intentions, but for now, corn’s supremacy has slipped. Unsurprisingly, bean acres were higher and corn acres lower than the earliest ideas that year.

CORN AND WHEATMoney managers’ net long in CBOT corn futures and options is now the smallest since the early days of the recent rally in September 2020. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsThat was the largest weekly net reduction in corn since August 2019. Most-active CBOT wheat futures lost nearly 7% in the week ended Dec. 6, reaching their lowest level since October 2021. Money managers increased their net short by more than 9,000 to 63,382 futures and options contracts, the most bearish since May 2019. March Minneapolis wheat also notched four-month lows on Dec. 6, and money managers pushed their net short position past 3,000 futures and options contracts.

Chicago wheat futures are still elevated versus most years, though they are slipping significantly versus prices elsewhere and against competing grains, even as supplies remain tight. Most-active CBOT wheat settled at $7.29 per bushel Tuesday after hitting a 14-month low. By the first week in March, most-active CBOT wheat had surged more than 50% within 10 sessions. Through Tuesday, CBOT wheat's 10-session decline totaled 11%, almost a record for the time of year. CBOT wheat usually sits at a premium to CBOT corn, but it has lost significant ground to its yellow grain competitor.

That resulted in a corn net long of 191,631 futures and options contracts, a three-week high. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsFunds covered gross shorts in both corn and soybeans through Nov. 29, though the addition of new longs was the more prominent feature. Open interest in corn futures and options was down 14% on the year as of Nov. 29, and for soybeans it was down 9%. Corn futures lost 3.5% in the last three sessions, on Friday hitting the most-active contract’s lowest levels since August before settling at $6.46-1/4 per bushel. CBOT soy product futures were up in the week through Nov. 29, soyoil to a larger degree at 2%.

Although most-active CBOT corn futures were unchanged in the week ended Nov. 15, the contract had traded down more than 2% by Nov. 15 before rallying back late in the session. Money managers axed more than 78,000 gross CBOT corn longs in the two weeks through Nov. 15, the most for any two-week stretch since July 2016. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly supply and demand and U.S. crop production reports during the week ended Nov. 15. Most-active CBOT wheat futures were also unchanged in the week ended Nov. 15 but had been down more than 3% at one point. Money managers were more active on the downswing, reducing their net long by about 11,000 to 92,965 CBOT soybean futures and options contracts.

That was funds’ fifth consecutive week selling CBOT wheat, meaning they sold even as Russia pulled out of the Ukraine export deal at the end of October. Wheat futures have shed more than 1% in the last four sessions, ending at $8.18-1/2 per bushel on Monday. Money managers’ gross CBOT wheat longs are the lightest for the date since 2008, and their shorts are largely average. Through Nov. 8, money managers cut their net long in CBOT corn futures and options to 237,662 contracts from 271,960 a week earlier. Managed money net position in Chicago wheat futures and optionsKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

The preliminary targets for 2023 corn and soy plantings and yields resemble the year-ago estimates. A year ago, USDA’s 2022 corn and soy acreages started at 92 million and 87.5 million as corn prices were favorable versus soybeans, but high input costs perhaps prevented an aggressive corn estimate. CBOT November soybeans to December cornBut 2022 corn acres fell well short of expectations starting with March intentions, likely because the trade was overestimating the number of available row crop acres. 2023 YIELDSFocus will soon shift to 2023, and USDA’s corn trend yield of 181.5 bpa could already be labeled as controversial. But just for fun, the agency exactly 10 years ago slated 2022 corn yield at 181, the same number shown a year ago.

☆ Wheat retreats as Ukrainian shipments continue despite Russia's pullout
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Naveen Thukral | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Soybeans gained more ground, climbing to their highest in more than a month, while corn ticked lower. "While Russia pulled out of the export grain corridor deal from Ukraine, there was still grain flowing out of Ukraine," Hightower said in a report. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that his country would continue exporting grain from its Black Sea ports because the shipments offered stability to world food markets. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday rated 28% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, the lowest for this time of year in records dating to 1987, underscoring the effects of persistent drought in the Plains wheat belt. Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat, soybean, corn, soyoil and soymeal futures contracts on Monday, traders said.

☆ Wheat eases from 2-week top on Black Sea supplies; soy, corn down
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Soybeans and corn lost ground after closing higher on Monday with a rapid pace of U.S. harvest weighing on prices. * Losses in the wheat market were curbed by dryness hitting the U.S. winter crop. For corn, the harvest was 76% complete, ahead of the average analyst estimate of 75% and the five-year average of 64%. * Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat, soybean, corn, soyoil and soymeal futures contracts on Monday, traders said. DATA/EVENTS (GMT)0030 Japan JibunkBK Mfg PMI Final SA Oct0145 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final Oct0330 Australia RBA Cash Rate Nov0700 UK Nationwide house price MM, YY Oct0930 UK S&P GLBL/CIPS Mfg PMI Final Oct1345 US S&P Global Mfg PMI Final Oct1400 US ISM Manufacturing PMI OctU.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committeestarts its two-day meeting on interest ratesReporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wheat up 6% after Russia quits Black Sea pact; corn, soy firm
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Julie Ingwersen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

CHICAGO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures jumped 6%, hitting a two-week high, and corn rose 1.6% on Monday as Russia's withdrawal from a Black Sea export agreement raised concerns over global supplies. Chicago Board of Trade December wheat settled up 53 cents at $8.82-1/4 per bushel after reaching $8.93-1/4, the contract's highest since Oct. 14. CBOT December corn ended up 10-3/4 cents at $6.91-1/2 a bushel and January soybeans finished up 19-1/4 cents at $14.19-1/2 a bushel. Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics"The grain and oilseed markets rose sharply overnight, led by wheat, as food shortage fears rise again after Russia pulls out of the Black Sea trade agreement," StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman said in a client note. Moscow suspended its participation in the Black Sea deal on Saturday in response to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Russia-annexed Crimea.

☆ Stocks fall, bond yields rise as focus shifts to Fed, rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed, which begins its two-day meeting Tuesday, is expected to deliver a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday in its attempt to tame inflation. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.35% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.44%. read moreKey food and energy prices drop after initial panicGRAINS REPORTIn currencies, the dollar rose 0.8% against the struggling yen to 148.62 yen . Brazil's currency and main stock index rallied Monday, a day after leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the country's presidential election. The Bovespa stock index (.BVSP) sank 2% at the opening and ended the session up 1.3%.

☆ Wheat climbs 5% to 2-week high as Russia suspends Black Sea agreement
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Naveen Thukral | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Russia suspends participation in Black Sea grain exports dealWheat futures jump 5%, at highest since mid-Oct, corn up 2%Black Sea wheat, corn supplies at risk on Russia withdrawalU.N., Turkey, Ukraine press ahead with grain exportsSINGAPORE, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures jumped more than 5% on Monday and corn rose over 2% as Russia's withdrawal from a Black Sea export agreement raised concerns over global supplies. Wheat futures hit a record high of $13.64 a bushel in March. "This is an inflationary move, supporting prices of wheat and corn," said a Singapore-based trader. Moscow suspended its participation in the Black Sea deal on Saturday in response to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Russia-annexed Crimea. More than 9.5 million tonnes of corn, wheat, sunflower products, barley, rapeseed and soy have been exported from the Black Sea since July.

☆ Wheat climbs 5.5% as Russia withdraws from Black Sea export agreement
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Naveen Thukral | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Russia suspends participation in Black Sea grain exports dealBlack Sea wheat, corn supplies at risk on Russia withdrawalU.N., Turkey, Ukraine press ahead with grain exportsSINGAPORE, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures jumped more than 5% on Monday and corn rose over 2% as Russia's withdrawal from a Black Sea export agreement raised concerns over global grain supplies. "(The market) is going to be overwhelmed in early trade today by Russia suspending its participation in the Black Sea grain corridor during the weekend," said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Our view has been that wheat futures were adding little premium to prices for the risk that the corridor would close." Moscow suspended its participation in the Black Sea deal on Saturday in response to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Russia-annexed Crimea. Wheat futures hit a record high of $13.64 a bushel in March.

Through Friday, CBOT soybean oil futures had risen 16% this month and Malaysian palm oil futures was up 20% as global vegetable oil supply concerns persist. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean oil futures and optionsBoth soyoil and soymeal futures notched 4% gains in the last three sessions, lifting soyoil above 70 cents per pound. Money managers in that period reduced their net long in CBOT corn futures and options by about 13,000 to 254,261 contracts. Funds’ net long in corn is larger than in the same weeks in 2021 and 2020, both of which were around 220,000 contracts. Money managers cut nearly 2,600 contracts from their CBOT wheat net short, which fell to 22,051 futures and options contracts.

Most-active CBOT corn futures rose 15% in those eight weeks, remaining just under $7 per bushel at their peak. Corn futures settled at $6.76-3/4 per bushel Friday, easing with broader commodities and equities, though they remain at the second highest levels for the date behind 2012. Subpar global crops have supported corn futures, but demand concerns loom. Money managers’ bullish CBOT soybean meal views are easily record high for the date, surging by more than 14,000 contracts through Sept. 20 to 102,168 futures and options contracts. That was associated with a 3.7% jump in futures, and it was funds’ biggest meal buying week since November.

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