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In a note on Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts warned that the upcoming debt limit battle in Washington could spark the most uncertainty since the disruptive 2011 debates that cost America its perfect AAA credit score and caused chaos on Wall Street. “To raise the debt limit next year, bipartisan support will be necessary but hard to achieve,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in the report. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that the political environment has “echoes of 1995 and 2011” — two very tense standoffs over the debt limit that hurt Main Street and Wall Street. Pain ahead: “It seems likely that uncertainty over the debt limit in 2023 could lead to substantial volatility in financial markets,” wrote Goldman analysts. “A failure to make timely payments would likely hit consumer confidence hard,” Goldman Sachs wrote.
"Britain is in stagflation - with rocketing inflation, negative growth, falling productivity and business investment. Firms see potential growth opportunities but ... headwinds are causing them to pause investing in 2023," CBI Director-General Tony Danker said. The CBI's GDP forecast is less gloomy than that of the British government's Office for Budget Responsibility - which last month forecast a 1.4% decline for 2023. But the CBI forecast is in line with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which expects Britain to be Europe's weakest performing economy bar Russia next year. The CBI forecast business investment at the end of 2024 will be 9% below its pre-pandemic level, and output per worker 2% lower.
London CNN Business —The United Kingdom faces a “lost decade” of growth if action isn’t taken to address slumping business investment and worker shortages, a leading business lobby group has warned. “Britain is in stagflation — with rocketing inflation, negative growth, falling productivity and business investment. The CBI expects the UK economy to shrink by 0.4% in 2023 — a significant downgrade from the growth of 1% it predicted in June. The group expects business investment to fall from the middle of next year, leaving it 9% below its pre-pandemic level at the end of 2024. “We cannot afford to have another decade where both [investment and productivity] are stagnant,” Danker said.
Morning Bid: Red alert
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsEuropean markets are likely to take a cue from the wave of red splashed across Asian markets on Monday, while investors will also scrutinise Wednesday's euro zone inflation data to see if the worst of the price surge is behind. While economists at Citi expect headline inflation to post the first decline since mid-2020, driven by falling energy inflation, European Central Bank's top economic thinkers have been sparring on the outlook for inflation and rates. Though U.S. inflation may be close to peaking, euro area price pressures remain strong. Inflation in the euro zone was 10.6% in October, more than five times the ECB's 2% target. The comments come after Switzerland's second-largest bank flagged a hefty loss last week as wealthy clients turn their back on the embattled bank.
In a speech to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference, Starmer doubled down on that message by telling businesses that a Labour government would work with companies to "help the British economy off its immigration dependency". "But let me tell you - the days when low pay and cheap labour are part of the British way on growth must end." Britain's economy has long relied on cheap labour, particularly since the EU expanded to take on new members from eastern Europe. On Monday, CBI Director General Tony Danker said labour shortages could be addressed with a better immigration system. "But our common goal must be to help the British economy off its immigration dependency," he said.
Sunak told business leaders at a Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference he was "unequivocal" that Britain should pursue its own agenda on regulation and migration. "On trade, let me be unequivocal about this: under my leadership, the United Kingdom will not pursue any relationship with Europe that relies on alignment with EU laws," Sunak said. [1/3] British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during the Confederation of Biritish Industry (CBI) conference in Birmingham, Britain November 21, 2022. And having the regulatory freedom to do that is an important opportunity of Brexit," Sunak said. "Let's have economic migration in areas where we aren't going to get the people and skills at home anytime soon.
Hunt, reminding lawmakers of his own past as an entrepreneur in marketing and publishing, made accelerating economic growth a priority in his budget speech to parliament on Thursday. Britain is badly in need of a growth fillip. It also cut its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.3% before a better couple of years thereafter with growth at 2.6% and 2.7%. It said Hunt's plan to cut public investment from 2024 would probably weigh on productivity growth - key to an economy's long-term prospects - beyond its five-year forecasts. "I have tried to avoid anything that damages long-term growth," Hunt told the BBC.
LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The British government must be willing to make politically unpopular choices in areas such as immigration and regulation to boost business investment and economic growth, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said on Monday. It also called on the government to streamline "the slow and inconsistent planning system", and speed-up decision-making for major developments. "All of us need to accept now that with fiscal and monetary policy tightening, we need many more pro-growth policies for our economy, if we’re to avoid a decade of no growth," CBI Director-General Tony Danker said in a statement. Danker said that if Hunt's plan for growth was only "warm words and aspirations" it wouldn't stop businesses pulling back from investment. "We need to make the UK an attractive place to invest."
UK companies see tough conditions enduring in months ahead: CBI
  + stars: | 2022-10-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - British businesses think the gloom hanging over their prospects will persist in the coming months, according to an industry survey published on Sunday. The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) gauge of private sector growth in the three months to October rose to -15 from -19 in the three months to September, still in contraction territory. "Notwithstanding a mixed picture across sectors, the private sector continues to face considerable headwinds," said Alpesh Paleja, CBI lead economist. "Amid rising costs, labour shortages and demand waning, businesses foresee a continued fall in activity over the next three months." The CBI survey was based on responses from 624 companies, surveyed between Sept. 26 and Oct. 13.
Delayed, not denied
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Markets have welcomed Sunak's appointment, with sterling creeping towards a one-month high and gilts rallying on the news. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterMeanwhile, the did-they-or-didn't-they question around yen intervention continues. The beaten-down currency traded at 148.81 per dollar following two consecutive days of suspected Bank of Japan intervention straddling the weekend. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki insists the two policy objectives - monetary easing to get wage growth up and intervention to defend the yen - are not contradictory. ($1 = 0.8853 pounds)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Morning Bid: Delayed, not denied
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Markets have welcomed Sunak's appointment, with sterling creeping towards a one-month high and gilts rallying on the news. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterMeanwhile, the did-they-or-didn't-they question around yen intervention continues. The beaten-down currency traded at 148.81 per dollar following two consecutive days of suspected Bank of Japan intervention straddling the weekend. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki insists the two policy objectives - monetary easing to get wage growth up and intervention to defend the yen - are not contradictory. ($1 = 0.8853 pounds)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Hunt, re-appointed to his job by new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Tuesday, is due to announce a budget plan on Oct. 31. Hunt, a former foreign and health minister, was rushed in as Truss's new finance minister after she fired her friend and fellow low-tax disciple Kwarteng less than two weeks ago in a bid to appease the markets. Hunt immediately ripped up Truss and Kwarteng's programme, reversing most of its 45 billion pounds of tax cuts, and he warned of tough decisions ahead to restore Britain's economic credibility. But the scale of the problem remains huge, with health, education and other public services in Britain under huge strain after more than a decade of tough controls on public spending. Just as important in the short term, Hunt and Sunak must decide what to do with Britain's hugely expensive energy price cap for homes and businesses.
LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Britain needs to restore stability to its finances to help reverse the fastest drop in financial sector sentiment in three years, a survey by business body CBI and consultants PwC said on Thursday. Profitability growth in the sector remains robust and is expected to increase at a faster pace in October to December, the CBI/PwC survey said. But sentiment in the third quarter to September fell at its fastest pace since September 2019, when it was hit by uncertainty around Brexit negotiations, the survey said. Employment in the sector is set to decline at a quicker pace in the current quarter, perhaps a reflection of the weaker sentiment, while the value of souring bank loans is expected to increase modestly, the survey said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Huw Jones Editing by Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Britain needs to restore stability to its finances to help reverse the fastest drop in financial sector sentiment in three years, a survey by business body CBI and consultants PwC said on Thursday. Profitability growth in the sector remains robust and is expected to increase at a faster pace in October to December, the CBI/PwC survey said. But sentiment in the third quarter to September fell at its fastest pace since September 2019, when it was hit by uncertainty around Brexit negotiations, the survey said. Employment in the sector is set to decline at a quicker pace in the current quarter, perhaps a reflection of the weaker sentiment, while the value of souring bank loans is expected to increase modestly, the survey said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Huw Jones Editing by Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Indian shares set to open lower ahead of Fed rate hike decision
  + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Francis MascarenhasBENGALURU, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Indian shares are expected to open slightly lower on Wednesday, after two straight sessions of gains, as investors brace for a hefty rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve and clues on further hikes. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterForeign investors bought a net $91.9 million worth of Indian equities on Tuesday, Refinitiv data showed. The Fed is set to announce its decision at the end of a two-day policy meeting later in the day. Rate futures traders are pricing in an 81% chance of a 75-basis-point hike and a 19% probability of a jumbo 100 bps increase. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Nallur Sethuraman in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Indian shares tread water ahead of Fed rate hike
  + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Sethuraman N R | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Francis MascarenhasBENGALURU, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Indian shares swung between small gains and losses in volatile early trading on Wednesday ahead of an expected hefty interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve to tackle inflation. Rate futures traders are pricing in an 81% chance of a 75-basis-point (bps) hike and a 19% probability of a jumbo 100 bps increase. FEDWATCHRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"We need to wait and watch the outcome of the Fed even though a 75 bps rate hike is discounted by the markets," said Anita Gandhi, director at Arihant Capital Markets. read moreThe Nifty fast-moving consumer goods index (.NIFTYFMCG) was the top gainer among major sectors, rising 1%, while the bank index (.NSEBANK) was the top drag, falling 0.6%. Among stock, shares of Central Bank of India (CBI.NS) jumped as much as 15% after the Reserve Bank of India took the state-owned commercial bank off its prompt corrective action list.
The Russia-Ukraine war triggered a crackdown on "golden passport" schemes across Europe. Malta is the only EU country with a golden passport program and is under pressure to shut it down. In recent years, countries including Bulgaria and Cyprus have shut down their golden passport programs following accusations of corruption and pressure from the European Union. The European parliament estimates that Russian nationals account for about half of approved golden passport applications in the EU. "The concern is that unsavory and possibly criminal individuals will secure EU passports, which then entitles them to mobility and settlement rights."
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