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After a five-month pause, the BoC raised its overnight rate in June, saying monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive. "If new information suggests we need to do more, we are prepared to increase our policy rate further," BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters after the decision. The BoC's overnight target rate was last at 5.00% in March and April of 2001. Twenty of 24 economists surveyed by Reuters had expected the central bank to lift rates by a quarter of a percentage point. Money markets had seen a more than a 70% chance of a rate hike before the announcement.
Persons: Derek Holt, Andrew Kelvin, Steve Scherer, Ismail Shakil, Fergal Smith, Divya Rajogopal, Nivedita Balu, Paul Simao, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, Wednesday, BoC, Scotiabank, Reuters, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: Canada, Toronto
"We expect the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate to 5.00% and leave the door open to more hikes this fall." Twenty of 24 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the central bank to lift rates by another quarter of a percentage point and then hold them there well into 2024. Money markets see more than a 70% chance of a rate hike on Wednesday, and are fully pricing in such a move by September. Canada added far more jobs than expected in June, according to data published on Friday. "And let's face it, inflation is still above the Bank of Canada's 2% target."
Persons: Royce Mendes, Tiago Figueiredo, Doug Porter, Porter, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Paul Simao Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Bank of Canada's, Group, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Canada
In June, the central bank raised its overnight rate to a 22-year high of 4.75% after a five-month pause, saying monetary policy was not restrictive enough. Data in the past month showed some signs of a slowdown - inflation cooling to 3.4%, a tepid May jobs report and a surprise trade deficit in May. "We expect the BoC to take the policy rate 25 basis points higher to 5%." Twenty of 24 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the bank to lift rates by another quarter-point and then hold well into 2024. Reporting by Steve Scherer, additional reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jay Zhao, Murray, Andrew Grantham, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, David Gregorio Our Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Monex, Reuters, CIBC Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canada
China's factory gate prices fall at fastest pace in 7 years
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
BEIJING, July 10 (Reuters) - China's factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven-and-a-half years in June, while consumer inflation was at its slowest since 2021, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand. The consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged year-on-year, compared with the 0.2% gain seen in May, driven by a faster fall in pork prices. Beijing has set a target for average consumer inflation in 2023 of about 3%. China last month cut policy rates to boost liquidity and vowed to take measures to promote household consumption. Reuters GraphicsFor producer prices, the biggest year-on-year declines were seen in energy, metals and chemicals as domestic and foreign demand weakened.
Persons: Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Pang, Hu Yuexiao, COVID, Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, Reuters Graphics, PPI, Jones, Shanghai Securities, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China
China's central bank said that financial regulators would fine Ant and its subsidiaries a total of 7.12 billion yuan, require it to stop operations of its crowdfunded medical aid service Xianghubao and compensate users. Reuters reported earlier, citing sources, that Chinese authorities intended to unveil its fine on Ant as early as Friday. The sources had earlier said that the fine on Ant had been revised to at least 8 billion yuan. Reuters reported in April that Chinese regulators were considering fining Ant about 5 billion yuan, a lower sum than what they initially had in mind. Alibaba was fined a record 18 billion yuan in 2021 for antitrust violations.
Persons: China c.bank, Ant, Ping, Rukim Kuang, Jack Ma, Jeffrey Towson, Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Didi Global, Alibaba, Julie Zhu, Jane Xu, Jason Xue, Kevin Huang, Meg Shen, Twinnie Sui, Josh Ye, Ethan Wang, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Brenda Goh, David Holmes, Susan Fenton Organizations: Ant, Singapore FinTech Festival, REUTERS, Ant Group, People's Bank of China, Reuters, Ping An Bank, PICC, HK, Postal Savings Bank, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Hong Kong, Financial Regulatory Administration, State Council, Lens Consulting, Thomson Locations: Singapore, China, HONG KONG, Ant's, Hong, Beijing, CHINA
Reuters reported earlier, citing sources, that Chinese authorities intended to unveil its fine on Ant as early as Friday. The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA), a new government body under the State Council, is now the primary regulator to grant Ant the license, they added. The sources had earlier said that the fine on Ant had been revised to at least 8 billion yuan. Reuters reported in April that Chinese regulators were considering fining Ant about 5 billion yuan, a lower sum than what they initially had in mind. Alibaba was fined a record 18 billion yuan in 2021 for antitrust violations.
Persons: China c.bank, Ant, Ping, Rukim Kuang, Jeffrey Towson, Jack Ma, China's, Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Didi Global, Alibaba, Julie Zhu, Jane Xu, Jason Xue, Kevin Huang, Meg Shen, Twinnie Sui, Josh Ye, Ethan Wang, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Brenda Goh, David Holmes, Susan Fenton Organizations: Ant, Singapore FinTech Festival, REUTERS, Ant Group, People's Bank of China, Reuters, Ping An Bank, PICC, HK, Postal Savings Bank, Tencent Holdings, Tenpay, Alibaba, Hong Kong, Lens Consulting, Communist Party, Financial Regulatory Administration, State Council, Thomson Locations: Singapore, China, HONG KONG, Ant's, Hong, Beijing, CHINA
OTTAWA, July 7 (Reuters) - Canada's economy added far more jobs than expected in June, data showed on Friday, a result analysts said probably seals the deal for another Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hike next week. The unemployment rate in June increased for the second consecutive month and is now at its highest level since February 2022, though still below a pre-pandemic 12-month average, Statscan said. The June jobs report is the last major economic figure to be released before the BoC's rate announcement on Wednesday. Growth has remained resilient despite nine rate increases totaling 450 basis points since March of last year. The net jobs addition in June, the largest since January, were driven by full-time work.
Persons: Jobs, Statscan, Derek Holt, Royce Mendes, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Emelia Sithole, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Statistics, Scotiabank, Desjardins Group, Reuters, Canadian, Employment, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Ottawa
So the BoC will press ahead and hike the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on July 12, according to 20 of 24 economists in the June 28-July 6 Reuters poll. That would amount to 475 basis points in total since March 2022, taking the overnight rate to a new 22-year high. Inflation is not expected to fall to the central bank's 2% target at least until 2025, according to the poll. The central bank was predicted to keep rates on hold at 5.00% until Q2 2024, said a majority of economists. Rates staying high for longer is expected to boost the Canadian dollar, one of the best performers among G10 currencies this year.
Persons: Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Claire Fan, Kit Juckes, Milounee Purohit, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ross Finley, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Gross, RBC Economics, Canadian, U.S, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU
China's central bank is caught between trying to support the yuan and the country's economy. The People's Bank of China has been ramping up its commentary on the yuan, which is falling against the dollar. But to revive economic growth, it's also cutting rates, which could counteract efforts to boost the currency. The ramp-up in commentary comes as the central bank's other method of influencing the yuan has fizzled. After several attempts in recent days to boost the yuan with aggressive reference points, the currency has given up its gains.
Persons: it's, Organizations: People's Bank of, Service, Bank of China Locations: People's Bank of China
The central bank did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment. Pan, central bank deputy governor since 2012 who turns 60 this month, is not expected to deviate from China's measured pace of policy easing to support the recovery, analysts said. "His professional ability will help safeguard the bottom line of systemic financial risks, especially as the property sector is slowing, and fend off a big systemic crisis." In an unexpected move, the ruling Communist Party appointed Pan as the central bank's party secretary on Saturday, taking over from Guo Shuqing. China has taken a series of steps this year to tighten party control over the country's vast, but largely closed, financial system, including plans to set up the Central Financial Commission to oversee the PBOC and other financial regulators.
Persons: Gongsheng, Jason Lee, Pan, Yi Gang, Gu Tianyong, Guo Shuqing, Yi, Yi's, Zhou Xiaochuan, Zhou, Xu Hongcai, Marius Zaharia, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: People's Bank of China, National People's Congress, REUTERS, outflows, Reuters, cryptocurrencies, prudential, Central University of Finance, Economics, Communist Party, Pan, Street, Cambridge University, Harvard University, Central Financial Commission, China Association of Policy, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING
China's central bank gets a new party secretary
  + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Pan Gongsheng was named party secretary of the People's Bank of China on July 1, 2023. BEIJING — The People's Bank of China announced Saturday that Pan Gongsheng, head of the country's foreign exchange regulator, would become the central bank's party secretary. In a country ruled by the Communist Party of China, the party secretary of an institution typically holds the most sway. That institution was absorbed into the National Financial Regulatory Administration in a financial regulatory overhaul announced in March and is set to take effect this year. The administration's party secretary and director is Li Yunze, a rare minister-level appointee of the younger 1970s generation.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, Gongsheng, Xi Jinping, Guo Shuqing, Li Yunze Organizations: People's Bank of China, Communist Party of China, China Banking, Insurance, Commission, National Financial Regulatory Administration Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China
By Steve SchererOTTAWA, June 30 (Reuters) - Canadian businesses see labor pressures easing and expect short-term inflation to edge down, the Bank of Canada said on Friday in a second quarter survey, but fewer firms expect an outright recession over the next year than three months ago. More businesses still expect wage growth over the next year, but the second-quarter number is a third of what it was a year ago. An increasing number of firms see both their input costs and the prices of what they sell declining over the next year. "Although labor shortages remain common in some sectors, pressures on the labor market are easing due to decreased competition for workers and increased labor supply," the report said. "Firms expect growth in their wages to moderate from high levels."
Persons: Steve Scherer OTTAWA, Steve Scherer, Ismail Shakil Organizations: Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson
Japan finance officials have warned all this week against the "excessive" depreciation of the Japanese yen . Contrasting moves in the world's major currencies — including the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan and the U.S. dollar — underscore the variance in domestic interest rates and monetary cycles. Authorities may be buying the Japanese yen "with the rise in USD/JPY set to run further," she added. The Japanese currency was hovering at about 144 against the greenback in Asia trade on Thursday. The central bank allows the currency to trade within a narrow band of 2% from each day's midpoint.
Persons: Sheldon Cooper, Carol Kong, Masato Kanda, Shunichi Suzuki, Philip Wee, Adnan Zaylani, BNM, Goldman Sachs Organizations: People's Bank of, Getty, U.S ., U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Ministry, Bank of Japan's, Reuters, Finance, DBS, greenback, Japan's Finance, Bank Negara Malaysia, Central Bank Locations: People's Bank of China, Asia, Japan, China, Covid, Ukraine, Malaysian, U.S . Federal, Bank
China's cabinet is soliciting proposals from economists and advisers, policy insiders told Reuters, with big changes needing approval from top party leaders, and investors now looking to an expected Politburo meeting in July for clues on policy direction. However, the modest borrowing cost cuts - limited by concerns over banks' profitability and currency stability - will not be enough to boost economic activity, policy insiders said. Authorities are also considering support for the ailing property sector after earlier measures failed to gain traction, including easing credit conditions and home buying curbs in some areas, policy insiders. Economists blame the fading recovery on the "scarring effects" caused by COVID and regulatory curbs on property and tech sectors, which have hit household and private sector spending. Supporting depressed private-sector firms, which account for 60% of economic output and 80% of urban employment, will be essential to lift incomes, jobs and consumption, policy insiders and analysts said.
Persons: Rory Green, Jia Kang, Kevin Yao, Sam Holmes Organizations: quicken, Reuters, People's Bank of China's, TS Lombard, China Academy of New, Economics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing
Dollar ekes out gain after Fed hike hint; yen slips
  + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The Fed's policy decision snapped a string of 10 consecutive rate hikes, but the projections, or dot plot, showed policymakers expect two more increases by the end of 2023. The euro was last flat versus the dollar at $1.0841 after touching a four-week high of $1.0865 on Wednesday. "Dollar-yen is at year highs and markets are increasingly beginning to talk about whether a further rise could trigger the BoJ to verbally and also effectually intervene in the FX market," Lomholt added. Japan's top government spokesperson said on Thursday that volatile currency market moves were undesirable and the authorities would take "appropriate" action as needed. The kiwi dollar sank 0.6% to $0.6172 after data showed New Zealand's economy slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter, putting further rate hikes in doubt.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Fed, Mohit Kumar, Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, Lomholt, Sim Moh Siong, Samuel Indyk, Rocky Swift, Edmund Klamann, Sohini Goswami, Shweta Agarwal Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Jefferies, Bank of Japan, Money, ECB, Danske Bank, The Bank of, FX, People's Bank of China, Singapore, Thomson Locations: The Bank of Japan
"In light of what the Fed has announced, it's a hawkish pause," said Bank of Singapore currency strategist Sim Moh Siong. "The message here is that the Fed is tightening, and this is why I think the dollar itself could stay supported in the near term." The yen plunged 0.9% to 141.365 per dollar, and earlier touched 141.430, a level not seen since Nov. 23. The kiwi dollar sank 0.52% to $0.6177 after data showed New Zealand's economy slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter, putting further rate hikes in doubt. "Following the rate cut from earlier this week, there's a lot of expectation for more wide ranging stimulus to shore up the economy," said Bank of Singapore's Siong.
Persons: it's, Sim Moh, Rocky Swift, Edmund Klamann Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of, Singapore, People's Bank of China, Singapore's, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, China's, Bank of Japan
SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, June 14 (Reuters) - China's central bank is widely expected to cut the borrowing cost of medium-term policy loans for the first time in 10 months on Thursday, after it lowered two key short-term policy rates, a Reuters poll showed. China remains an outlier among global central banks as it loosens monetary policy to shore up a stalling recovery but further rate cuts will widen the yield gap with U.S. assets and risk greater outflows. The MLF rate serves as a guide to the benchmark loan prime rate (LPR), and markets usually use the medium-term rate as a precursor to any changes to the lending benchmark. Looking ahead, we expect another 10bp cut in the MLF rate in 3Q23." The PBOC last cut the MLF rate in August 2022 to prop up the broad economy disrupted by stringent zero-COVID measures.
Persons: Ting Lu, Larry Hu, Wu Fang, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: People's Bank of China, Nomura, Macquarie, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China, lockstep
"The central bank's rate cut decision was not a complete surprise to the market," said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank. Further interest rate cuts in China would only widen the yield gap with the United States, even if the Fed pauses this week, sending the yuan lower and accelerating capital outflows. Tuesday's rate cut suggests policymakers are increasingly worried about the health of China's recovery, traders and analysts said. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources, that China was considering at least a dozen stimulus measures including cuts to interest rates to support areas such as real estate and domestic demand. "There could be another RRR or policy interest rate cut in Q4, depending on the economic outcome over the next several months."
Persons: Ken Cheung, Yi Gang, Cheung, Marco Sun, Frances Cheung, Goldman Sachs, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: People's Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, MUFG Bank, Bloomberg, OCBC Bank, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China, United States, outflows
China cuts short-term borrowing costs as economy slows
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
SummarySummary Companies PBOC lowers 7-day reverse repo to 1.9% vs. 2.0% prev. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.90% from 2.00% on Tuesday, when it injected 2 billion yuan ($279.97 million) through the short-term bond instrument. "The central bank's rate cut decision was not a complete surprise to the market," said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank. Tuesday's rate cut suggests policymakers are increasingly worried about the health of China's recovery, traders and analysts said. "However, the market is expecting the PBOC to cut the policy rate further.
Persons: 10bp, Ken Cheung, Yi Gang, Cheung, Marco Sun, Frances Cheung, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, MUFG Bank, OCBC Bank, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China, United States, outflows
BENGALURU, June 13 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again in July to 5.00% after a surprise 25 basis point increase last week, according to economists polled by Reuters, who unanimously said the main risk was the central bank might have to do more. The BoC will hike its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% at next month's meeting, according to 20 of 25 economists in a snap June 8-13 Reuters poll. "When you resume hiking, you don't resume for one 25 basis point hike. All but three of 25 economists forecast the overnight rate to peak at 5.00% or higher, 50 basis points more than was predicted in the last survey published on June 2. Only one of 25 economists expected a rate cut this year, compared with five in the last poll.
Persons: underscoring, Sebastien Lavoie, Lavoie, Doug Porter, Milounee Purohit, Sarupya Ganguly, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters, BoC, Laurentian Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) building in Beijing on Dec. 15, 2022. The People's Bank of China on Tuesday cut a key short-term policy rate as it deals with disappointing economic data in the country after a Covid-19 reopening failed to gain momentum. The PBOC cut its seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points from 2% to 1.9%, according to a central bank release, injecting 2 billion Chinese yuan ($279.97 million) through its seven-day repos. A repurchase agreement (repo) is a type of short-term borrowing rate. The move comes ahead of the PBOC's medium-lending facility interest rate decision, which is expected to be released on Thursday.
Organizations: People's Bank of China, U.S Locations: Beijing
By Steve Scherer and David LjunggrenOTTAWA, June 8 (Reuters) - Surprisingly strong household spending in the first quarter and stubbornly high core inflation were among the top reasons the Bank of Canada hiked rates after a four-month pause, a senior official said on Thursday. The Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday hiked its overnight rate to a 22-year high of 4.75%, and markets and analysts forecast yet another increase next month after the policy announcement declared monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive. Speaking to business executives in Vancouver in the BoC's first remarks since raising rates, Beaudry singled out unexpectedly strong household spending, a rebound in the housing market, a tight labor market, and sticky core inflation as the main factors behind the latest move. Core inflation measures "seem to have lost their downward momentum", he said. There is a greater risk of higher rates in the future, so "it's important to think ahead", Beaudry said, and "be better prepared in the eventuality that we have entered a new era of structurally higher interest rates".
Persons: Steve Scherer, David Ljunggren OTTAWA, Paul Beaudry, Beaudry, David Ljunggren Organizations: Bank of Canada, Wednesday, BoC, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Vancouver, Reuters Ottawa
Morning Bid: Not so fast, debt ceiling bulls!
  + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin BucklandYou didn't think it would be that easy, did you? Investors are on edge after equities and the dollar got knocked back Friday, when Republican negotiators unexpectedly walked out of debt ceiling talks. Discussions now seem to be back on track, with President Joe Biden due to meet House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy later today. Another potential boost comes from the PBOC's assessment that the fundamentals of China's economic stability and long-term improvement have not changed. Luis de Guindos and Philip Lane are among Lagarde's ECB colleagues on speaking duty today.
SAO PAULO, May 19 (Reuters) - Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated on Friday it is far too early to be thinking about interest rate cuts, adding that he expects the consumer price index to decline to around 3% this summer and back to the bank's 2% inflation target around the end of 2024. "We have paused our interest rate increases... and we are using this pause to assess whether we have increased our policy rates enough to get inflation back to 2%," Macklem told a seminar hosted by Brazil's central bank via video conference. Reporting by Gabriel Araujo; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SAO PAULO, May 19 (Reuters) - Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated on Friday it is far too early to be thinking about interest rate cuts, adding that he expects the consumer price index to decline to around 3% this summer and back to the bank's 2% inflation target around the end of 2024. Macklem told a seminar hosted by Brazil's central bank that the Canadian monetary authority has been using a pause in interest rate increases to assess whether policy has been tightened enough to get inflation back to 2%. Canada last hiked rates in January, holding its benchmark rate at 4.5% since then, despite saying it would be ready to hike again if inflation risks remain significantly above target. "So far, Canadians are proving resilient," the central bank governor said, pointing out that delinquencies on mortgages remain low. Reporting by Gabriel Araujo; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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