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Signs of calm and stability in banking stocks, which have tanked in the past week following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), soon paved way for renewed selling as Credit Suisse shares fell to record lows. Reuters GraphicsThe STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index fell 1.67%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) fell 51.58 points, or 2.91%Investors rushed back into safe haven investments. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don't think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

[1/3] Switzerland's national flag flies above a logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. Reuters GraphicsThe STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index fell 1.29%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) fell 44.48 points, or 2.51%. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don't think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

☆ Credit Suisse unease sparks selloff in world stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] Switzerland's national flag flies above a logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. Reuters GraphicsEurope's bank index has now seen more than 120 billion euros evaporate ($127.08 billion) in since March 8. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don’t think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data published on Tuesday shows that speculators held the largest net short position in three-month 'SOFR' rate futures since September, and the biggest net short 10-year Treasuries futures position since 2018. While they trimmed their net short 2-year Treasuries futures position, it was only a reduction of around 5% from the record short a couple of weeks earlier. They trimmed their two-year futures net short to 656,575 contracts - two weeks prior they were net short 696,686 contracts, a record. chartA short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds and interest rates, yields and implied rates fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall.

March 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. A week ago Barclays economists raised their forecast for the Fed's March 21-22 meeting to a 50 basis point rate hike from 25 bps. Rates futures markets show traders now reckon the Fed is done raising rates and will cut by 50 bps later this year. The implied 'terminal' rate has plunged more than 100 bps since last week to 4.35%, and the year-end implied rate has plummeted more than 150 bps to 3.90%. World stocks fell on Monday and are now down five days in a row, the longest losing streak since October.

There's a big shift in rate expectations," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. Goldman Sachs (GS.N), among other big banks, said it no longer expects the Fed to deliver a rate hike at the end of its two-day policy meeting on March 22. "There's been a radical change in interest rate expectations and in that scenario the dollar has weakened," said Niles Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. The Japanese yen strengthened 1.47% at 133.04 per dollar, while the dollar fell 1.23% against the Swiss franc at 0.910. Earlier, it hit a near one-month high of $1.0737, ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday.

☆ Analysis: As banks break, markets hear the sound of peaking rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. interest rate futures surged and a hard-running rally in short-term bonds extended, putting two-year Treasuries on course for their best three-day gain since Black Monday in 1987. "If (U.S. Fed Chair Jerome) Powell lifts interest rates next week, he will jeopardise this situation," he added. At 4.4098% they are also below the bottom end of the Fed funds rate window at 4.5% - a sign markets see rates' peak is near. "I think people are linking Silicon Valley Bank's problems with the rate hikes we've already had," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "If rates going up caused this, the Fed is going to mindful of that in futures," he said.

☆ Dollar slides on likely rate pause in wake of SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investor focus will now be on Tuesday's inflation data to gauge how hawkish the Fed is likely to be. "Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike." The market is now pricing a nearly 18% chance of the Fed sticking to its current rate and an 82% chance of a 25 basis point hike. In contrast, the market was pricing a 70% chance of a 50 basis point hike before the SVB collapse. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.61% versus the U.S. dollar to 134.18 per dollar, having touched a one-month high of 133.58 earlier in the session.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank rescue leaves Fed in a rate bind
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Given the strain on the U.S. banking system, investors were also wondering whether the Fed would really risk hiking interest rates by an outsized 50 basis points next week. Fed fund futures duly extended an early surge to completely price out the chance of 50 basis points, when this time last week it was priced at 72%. Yields on two-year Treasuries dived 19 basis points to 4.40%, and got as low as 4.34% at one stage. That brought the fall since Thursday to an astounding 66 basis points, the biggest three-session decline since the Black Monday crash of 1987. The ECB is still expected to go 50 basis points this week, but it will have to at least acknowledge the risks to financial stability, which could make it a dovish hike.

☆ Dollar sinks as US intervenes on SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It had previously expected a 25 basis point hike. The SVB collapse led investors to speculate that the Fed would now hesitate to hike interest rates by a super-sized 50 basis points this month. "Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike." In contrast, the market was pricing a 70% chance of a 50 basis point hike before the SVB collapse. The Australian dollar surged 1.41% to $0.667, and was on track for its biggest one-day percentage jump since Jan. 6.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks rescued, rates recoil, stress builds
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Early last week as much as a half point rate hike was almost fully priced. Now back as low as 4.8%, the implied peak Fed rate for the cycle has plummeted almost a full percentage point over that time. Goldman Sachs now says it no longer expects the Fed to raise rates on March 21-22. The Federal Reserve also made it easier for banks to borrow from it in emergencies. More broadly, the implications for Fed monetary policy caused most ructions and complicated overall index direction that's torn between bank losses and the repricing of rates.

☆ Here's why the 2-year note yield above 5% doesn't shake our conviction in stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But the Club's long-term outlook isn't swayed by this current bond market dynamic. Remember, bond yields moved in the opposite direction to bond prices. It was not, however, a great time to run away from stocks, Jim emphasized Wednesday. (There was of course the stock market crash in October 1987, which came to be known as Black Monday. (See here for a full list of the stocks Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.)

☆ 0DTE options could turn 5% intraday market decline into 25% rout -JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 6 (Reuters) - Trading in new near-dated U.S. options contracts can supercharge volatility in U.S. stocks, potentially leading to tremendous intraday declines, analysts at JPMorgan said. The U.S. equity options market has seen a rise in the trading of options contracts set to expire at the end of the trading day - dubbed 0DTE (zero day to expiry) options - with their daily notional value rising to about $1 trillion, according to JPMorgan data. Their recent growth has been eyed as one cause of intraday volatility, with JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic last month warning they could spark a massive volatility event under certain circumstances. Such a scenario could occur if the S&P 500 fell 5% in five minutes, triggering $30.5 billion in 0DTE option-related trading that would tack another 20 percentage points onto the index's decline, the bank’s analysts said. Furthermore, JPM noted that retail traders were not the main driver of volume growth in 0DTE options, with individual investors accounting for about 20% of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY.P) options volume and only around 5% of the S&P 500 same-day options.

☆ All investors need a worldview. Here's mine and how to think about developing your own
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +23 min

You need to know what you think will happen and then you can insert stocks into that worldview. I think this view, which Jay cares and is most likely going to get it right, is fundamental to my worldview. I think that's an absurd tradeoff and those who are making it, those who own 10-year Treasurys, are sorely ill-advised. Fortunately, I don't think the Fed has to go that far to break the trio. The companies you think might not make it I think aren't going to make it because they won't be able to raise cash.

☆ Explainer: Wall Street's market glitches and the repercussions
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

This led some market participants to voice complaints that increasingly automated trading posed a systemic risk. Others saw such a shocking market tumble as an outlier, and the cost of progress, that just needed additional guardrails in order to avoid a repeat. In 2012, the benchmark index for the circuit breakers changed to the S&P 500 (.SPX) and the percentage levels needed to trigger the trading halt were lowered. There have been instances, of varying severity, since the 2010 crash where trading was unable to take place. Others included a three-hour trading halt on Aug. 22, 2013 and the Aug 2015 session that saw trading halted for nearly four hours.

☆ Inside Ken Griffin's rise to one of Wall Street's most powerful people, and why politics could be next
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Dakin Campbell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +30 min

JB and I are not on speaking terms these days," said Ken Griffin, the billionaire hedge-fund manager, referring to JB Pritzker, the Democratic governor of Illinois. As Florida rolled back pandemic restrictions more quickly than Chicago, even more Citadel employees migrated south. Ken Griffin's hedge fund has had a run of eye-popping returns since 2020. Others worry that it gives Griffin's hedge fund an unfair advantage. Hundreds of Citadel employees, partners, and families gathered at the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando Florida.

☆ Cramer sees bullish signs starting to emerge in the stock market, just not in the same places as before
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Case in point: Mike Wilson, the genius of 2022, the strategist who was the most negative — and, therefore, the most right. Seven days ago, he predicted the bank earnings, the kick-off, would jolt the market by coming in sharply below expectations. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

☆ How to Invest in Stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +23 min

Set your time frameWhen you’re ready to invest in stocks, it’s natural to start by looking at how the stock market has performed recently. If you’re saving for the long-term: Invest in stocksOn the other hand, if you have a long-term financial goal—especially retirement, but any goal a decade or more out—you can afford to invest in the stock market. Decide how much risk to takeJust because you have time to invest in stocks doesn’t mean you have the stomach. Return Best Year Worst Year Years with a loss 100% Stocks 12.3% 54.2% -43.1% 25/96 80% Stocks 11.1% 45.4% -34.9% 24/96 60% Stocks 9.9% 36.7% -26.6% 22/96 40% Stocks 8.7% 35.9% -18.4% 19/96 20% Stocks 7.5% 40.7% -10.1% 16/96 100% Bonds 6.3% 45.5% -0.8% 20/96 VanguardStep 3. Most ETFs are index funds, meaning they merely aim to match the returns of a stock market index, although some target very narrow slices of the market, such as just tech stocks or just energy stocks.

ORLANDO, Fla., Dec 8 (Reuters) - When Yogi Berra famously said it's difficult to make forecasts, especially about the future, he probably didn't have financial market analysts in mind. However, this is precisely where clients might reasonably expect their well-remunerated investment bank and fund management experts to earn their corn. The median earnings growth forecast was just under 8%. Right now the S&P 500 is below 4000, down 17% year to date and on course for one of its biggest falls in 80 years. A Reuters poll of 41 strategists published on Nov. 29 showed that the S&P 500 will end next year at 4200, up 6.8% from Wednesday's close.

☆ How Cyber Monday surpassed Black Friday to become the biggest shopping event of the holiday season
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Alex Bitter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Cyber Monday is the biggest holiday-shopping day of the year by sales, outpacing even Black Friday. But the shopping holiday wouldn't have been what it is today without retailers eager to make it a success. That year, shop.org, NRF's online arm, issued a press release in November declaring: "'Cyber Monday' Quickly Becoming One of the Biggest Online Shopping Days of the Year." "This year, online retailers will be capitalizing on the increased traffic by offering special promotions and discounts." In five years, it had gone from obscurity to the highest-grossing shopping day of the holiday season.

☆ A fund manager with 50 years' experience is beating the S&P 500 this year. How he did it and the stocks he's watching
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

That bear market perspective is setting the Wall Street veteran apart in a bleeding red year for the stock market. Kornitzer said the fund could buy in again, depending on how they move in the bear market. The Buffalo flexible fund currently holds 57 stocks, with Microsoft as its largest position, accounting for 7.5% of the portfolio. Calling it an "odd creature," he said the Buffalo fund has moved from being thought of as a "60/40" fund split between stocks and bonds, to pure equity. A bear market doesn't have to be devastating, he said, if you can find hidden value stocks amid the carnage.

☆ Earnings have been mostly good. Just avoid the tech wreck
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Corporate earnings have actually been, to quote "Curb Your Enthusiasm's" Larry David, pretty, pretty good. The Dow was up more than 300 points, or 1%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%. what used to be dubbed FAANG stocks before name and ticker changes) make up a big chunk of the weighting of the S&P 500. Nearly three-quarters of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have topped forecasts. So the weaker earnings are more a function of higher costs as opposed to a significant slowdown in sales.

☆ Jim Cramer on the lesson investors can learn from Black Monday
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJim Cramer on the lesson investors can learn from Black MondayCramer on Wednesday explained what investors should take away from Black Monday.

☆ It’s been 35 years since the epic Black Monday crash. What have investors learned?
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN Business spoke to Jon Hirtle, a broker at Goldman Sachs in 1987, to get his recollections about Black Monday. That’s led some Wall Street veterans to derisively refer to the NYSE as nothing more than a glorified TV studio. Goldman Sachs announced Tuesday that it is merging its trading and investment banking businesses into a single unit. CEO David Solomon said that the move is a “realignment” that will allow Goldman Sachs to better serve its customers. There are growing concerns on Wall Street (and Main Street) about an economic downturn.

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