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The US housing market has dramatically slowed this year. This is because Smead sees a recession unfolding next year as his base case scenario, in which case mortgage rates would reverse. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes usually fall in a recession, as investors flock toward safehaven assets. "And you're more likely to get to 5.3% mortgage rates if you have a recession." Falling mortgage rates will raise affordability for prospective homebuyers, and will wake up demand that has been waiting on the sidelines for better buying conditions, he said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell's problem is he needs the economy to be lousy but it isn't, says Smead Capital's Bill SmeadBill Smead, Smead Capital Management CIO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss Powell's recent comments, his thoughts on the homebuilder sector in 2023 and more.
Nov 14 (Reuters) - Walmart (WMT.N) and Target (TGT.N) results this week are likely to show that major retailers are heading for a turbulent holiday season as rampant inflation has made everything from toothpaste to Christmas sweaters more expensive for shoppers. "We have our expectations set really low, it's a difficult environment," said Bill Smead, chief investment officer of Smead Capital Management, which owns Target shares worth more than $200 million. Smead said recent warnings around demand from FedEx and Amazon did not bode well for retailers this season. The economic slowdown has led to expectations of a more muted holiday shopping season with everyone from Amazon to Walmart kick-starting holiday deals early to clear excess merchandise. However, Walmart and Target's scale and ability to undercut smaller retailers on price may still help them fare better than others as they attract more cost-conscious consumers looking to do their Christmas shopping on a budget, analysts said.
But according to Bill Smead, a 42-year market vet and the founder and CIO of Smead Capital Management, the group is still overvalued. Smead Capital Management"As you can see, it took years for the tech bubble stocks of 1999 to get interesting. Smead also included a chart on the average valuation of the top 100 tech stocks, which still shows historically elevated levels. Smead Capital Management"Hannibal Lecter said to Clarisse in the movie The Silence of the Lambs, 'Have the lambs stopped screaming?' Smead's views in contextSmead's view that tech stocks are overvalued is shared by some.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Smead Capital Management CIO Bill SmeadBill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss selling into bear rallies, a shifting power dynamic for employees and the value of stocks centered around necessity spending.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe've entered a decade where Main Street wins, Wall Street loses, says Smead Capital Management CIOBill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss selling into bear rallies, the shifting power dynamic for employees and the value of stocks centered around necessity spending.
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